Why has Sinn Féin’s Support Collapsed?

this video is brought to you by brilliant over the last few years shin feane has been treated as a kind of government-in-waiting in the republic of ireland, the irish republican party achieved a historic result in the last 2020 election, breaking the usual two-party system. system by winning the most votes, and while that did not propel Shen Fain into government, it did become the largest opposition party and has maintained an overwhelming lead since late 2020, but Shin Fain's fortunes appear to have changed and has decreased in the polls. and posting disappointing results in the local and European elections in early June, so in this video we will explain the recent rise and fall of Shin Fain and what it means for the party in the future before we begin, if you haven't already , please consider subscribing and ringing the bell to stay informed and receive notifications when we post new videos to get you started with some quick background.

Shinan's origins date back to the early 20th century, when it was founded as an organization opposed to British rule in Ireland and played an important role. key role in securing Irish independence, although it is worth noting that the modern party is actually the result of several divisions, too many to analyze over the last century. You have probably heard of shin faine described as the former public qing of the IRA because of its association with the republican group that during the Troubles united the violent campaign to end British rule of Northern Iran and unite the island as a single independent entity .

The Irish Republicans' Jeel strategy, which balanced armed campaigning with electoral politics, gradually shifted in favor of the East during the 1980s and 1990s under Shin Fain leader Jerry Adams, and the IRA eventually ended its campaign. after the 1998 Good Friday agreement, in which Shin Fain signed exclusively peaceful and democratic means to resolve differences anyway in the Republic. Shin Fain had never done it. more than a handful of seats in the lower house of Ireland's parliament until the 2011 election, in which they won 14 seats, which increased to 23 in 2016 and finally in 2012 they won the impressive 37 seats that we mentioned in the introduction of this video.

There are some reasons behind it. Shin F's rise and success in 2020 and his continued poll success Beyond this, firstly, Ireland was particularly affected by the 2008 global financial crisis which, as journalist Naomi oi wrote, created the conditions for Shin Fain to move away from its single-issue party image. on Irish Unity, positioned itself as an anti-austerity party and boosted its progressive credentials by campaigning for the legalization of same-sex marriage and abortion in the 2015 and 2018 referendums. It became increasingly popular by offering a left-wing alternative to the two main center parties. center-right parties that have dominated Irish politics for around a century putting housing front and center of their platform promising the largest public housing program in the state's history.

Shin emerged thanks in large part to younger voters frustrated by the country's acute housing crisis. The B party also benefited from a leadership change in 2018 when leader Jerry Adams was replaced by Mary L MacDonald, providing Shin Fane with a new generation of leadership and putting further distance between him and his historical links to the IRA. , after his strong performance. In the 2020 elections, things continued to go well for Shin Fane as a party, it clearly used its position as the official opposition effectively and by the summer of 2022 it peaked at 36% in the polls, but as can be seen from the graphic,

support

for the party. has since fallen particularly sharply from around October 2023 onwards and the recent Irish local and European Parliament elections confirmed Shane F's struggles in the locals, while the party increased its percentage of first preference votes to little less than 12%, came in third place and fell far.

Below the highs it had recorded since the last local elections in the European elections, Shin also came in third place, recording a similar percentage and only gaining one additional seat in the hope of winning four. So what's behind the drop in

support

for Shin Fain? Well, in the recent election there were some strategic and campaign-related errors, for example, it may have tried too hard by fielding too many candidates and perhaps relied too heavily on a strategy centered around party leader Mary Lou MacDonald , the party also backed the losing side in two constitutional referendums were held in March, but the most important thing is immigration.

Shin Faine has suffered as immigration has become an increasingly central issue in Irish political debate. In fact, a few months ago we made a video about the Islands' changing position on migration, but to provide some figures, more than 100,000 Ukrainian refugees. have arrived in Ireland since 2022 and separately there were around 13,000 asylum applications in Ireland last year and if for F increases from 2019 levels, how this interacts with things like the pre-existing housing crisis and strain on public services, along with high-profile incidents such as the stabbing that sparked anti-immigrant riots in Dublin last year has put immigration at the top of the political agenda.

Pauling shows that immigration dethroned housing as the issue to which citizens paid most attention in January, February and again in May, the month before local elections and The European elections and now the immigration debate have evidently raised a challenge for the ruling Coalition parties, but for Shin Faine it has been particularly difficult, as it has left the party that previously had a relatively undeveloped position on immigration and asylum, struggling to find a position that pleases the different parties. from its base, which includes the more immigrant-friendly young progressives who have strengthened the party in recent years and its traditional working-class voters who favor more restrictive immigration and asylum policies.

In fact, Pauling suggests that Shin's base is actually the most hostile to immigration of any. the party's grassroots, meaning that the party's leadership has been somewhat out of step with its base, as such anti-immigration voices have managed to take over the opposition narrative and a considerable number of voters switched from shinan to the ya Island's considerable number of independent politicians and candidates, including a number of new figures, take a hard line on immigration. It's not just the independents who benefit from Shin's victory or the ruling coalition performed better. than expected in the recent elections and Finel in particular appears to have received a new injection of energy thanks to the party's new leader, The surprise is that Simon Harris, who took over in April after the resignation of Le Radar to address his faltering position , Shin Faine will need as Mar L McDonald has pledged to regroup and re-evaluate and even before the recent election the party had begun to toughen its stance on immigration now if this is worth it and it remains to be seen how well it will fare. fixes Shin Fain to keep its base together, but at this point it seems that Shin Fain's hopes of using the next elections scheduled for March 2025 to take over the government are quite unlikely, especially if the government takes advantage of Shin F's weakness and calls early elections for the fall.

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