The optimism bias | Tali Sharot

to. However, there are certainly obstacles and it would be foolish to ignore them. Take, for example, this email I received from a firefighter here in California. It says: "Investigations into firefighter deaths often include: 'We didn't think the fire was going to cause this,' even when all the data was available to make a safe decision." what they think the way they do, to make them aware of this

optimism

bias

in people. Unrealistic

optimism

can lead to risky behavior, financial failures and faulty planning. The British government, for example, has recognized that it is more likely. that the optimism

bias

causes people to underestimate the cost and duration of the projects.

A friend of mine who is getting married in a few weeks has done this by adjusting the budget for the 2012 Olympic Games. Same thing with your wedding budget. And by the way, when I asked him about his chances of divorce, he said he was pretty sure they were zero percent. What we like to do is protect ourselves from the dangers of optimism, but at the same time. time we maintain hope and benefit from the many fruits of optimism. And I think there is a way to do it. The key in this case is knowledge. We do not come to life with an innate understanding of our biases.

These must be identified through scientific research. But the good news is that by becoming aware of the one-sidedness of optimism, the illusion is not broken. It is like visual illusions, in which cases the fact that we understand them does not mean that they disappear. And that's a good thing because it means we have to be able to find a balance, establish rules and plans to protect ourselves from unrealistic optimism, but at the same time maintain hope. I think this sketch reflects it well. Because if you're one of those pessimistic penguins who don't believe they can fly, you'll never make it.

Because to make any progress, we must be able to imagine another reality, and then we must believe that that reality is possible. But if you're an extremely optimistic penguin jumping blindly hoping for the best, you might find yourself in the middle of a pickle when you hit the ground. But if you're an optimistic penguin who believes he can fly, but then straps a parachute on his back in case things don't go as planned, you'll fly like an eagle, even if you're just a penguin. Thank you. (Applause)