Surviving The Deadliest Game

Vsalsa! Kevin here. Playing one of the

deadliest

game

s ever created. In fact, it was so deadly that I needed Kevin the Balloon to act as my manager. The real Kevin. I'm the real Kevin. The

game

is Russian Roulette. You probably already know how to play Russian Roulette. Traditionally, a single bullet is placed in a revolver containing 6 cartridges. The cylinder rotates so that it is impossible to know which camera will fire. You pull the trigger and... there's a 5 in 6 chance that you'll be safe, and a 1 in 6 chance that things will go pretty badly for you. I've inserted a single needle into each dart, so in our version of this game, poor Kevin the balloon will do very poorly.

AND THAT IS DANGEROUS. And insecure. All of this is dangerous and unsafe. And against the Terms of Service of all Internet sites. Fortunately, Russian roulette is mostly used in movies as a dramatic device, and I'm using it as a dramatic way to analyze probability. The important part is that you never do any of this. Ever. Well? Well! I want to figure out the best way to survive this notoriously fatal game. So, if balloon Kevin plays a standard game of Russian roulette, he has a 1 in 6 chance of permanently deflating his dome. There's about an 83% chance that my little gummy clone wins and a 17% chance that he loses... forever.

And that's it! So, here we go. It's time to try your luck, Balloon Kevin. Wait... Let's make this scenario a little more complex. Let's say that inside there are two missiles that explode balloons... 6 chambers with 2 possible spherical darts that splash air sacs that have been placed next to each other. Adjacent. There is a ⅔ chance that my airheaded double will survive a random tug on the toy. So, do you like your chances, boy? Do you think that mustache of yours is better than the real one? Good. Let's see if destiny is on your side. ⅔ chance of survival comes true!

So move on to the next round. My gas twin has had too easy a shot so far, the survival math has been very, very simple. He has had no active role in deciding his own destiny. So let's give you something to think about. For the second round, I'll give you a choice and put the odds of life in your pipe cleaner hands. The choice is this: now that he has managed to survive a round of the game, does he want to spin the cylinder before playing again? Or does he just...he plays and hopes for the best?

The big question is: is it better for him to randomize the cylinder or continue playing with his current configuration? Good. Answer the question, punk! What is it going to be, balloon jester with a blue hat? Well, since Kevin the balloon doesn't talk, I'll consider the options on his behalf. Since there are 2 adjacent cartridges there and the toy has already been fired once, does it matter mathematically whether the Air Kevin spins or not? Let's find out. The first option: turn. It's the same scenario with the same math. You're basically recreating the Round 1 odds, which we know give you a ⅔ chance of survival.

So… there's really not much to consider there. But if you don't turn, you'll know something else... the toy has just been shot into one of the empty chambers, which is how Balloon Kevin survived to make it to Round 2. And a little logic reveals the math of whether to turn or spin. do not rotate. Think about the location: there are 4 possible empty chambers, and only one of them is directly in front of the two cartridges. Which means there's a 75% chance that the trigger for Round 2 is in another empty chamber, and only a 25% chance that this balloon is about to burst.

By not spinning, balloon Kevin has gained about 8 percentage points more survivability. And it is a very simple probability calculation because we know that the darts are adjacent. If they were just randomly placed in the chambers… then things change. That is how. There are 15 possible positions for 2 darts randomly arranged in 6 chambers. 6 of them are adjacent, so the darts would be on numbers 1 and 2, 2 and 3, 3 and 4, 4 and 5, 5 and 6, all the way to 6 and 1. There are 6 more ways you can There will be only one space between the darts, so #1 and #3, #2 and #6, #1 and #5, #4 and #6, #3 and #5, and #2 and #4. Finally, there are only 3 ways the darts can face each other: #1 and #4, #3 and #6, and #2 and #5.

If Bloovin survives the first round and doesn't know if the darts are side by side or spread out, does he want his second shot with spin or no spin? We know that we have 75% survival in those 6 adjacent positions. For cylinders that have darts 1 space apart, 2 of the 4 empty positions come before a void and 2 of the 4 come before a dart, so that's 50%. And the same goes for opposing darts. Our overall safety probability here is a calculation of those weighted probabilities and looks something like this. (6/15 x 3/4) + (6/15 x 2/4) + (3/15 x 2/4) 3/10 + 1/5 + 1/10 = 3/5 By not rotating, we have a 60% chance of survival compared to 66.67% (⅔) when we turned.

When we know that the darts are adjacent, we can gain 8% survival. When we know they are random, we can avoid losing about 7%. It's not a magic bullet that allows balloon Kevin to survive what is probably humanity's

deadliest

game. Doing the math doesn't reveal a secret way to win 80% of the time. It just doesn't work that way. I could give you 8%. And 8% is pretty insignificant, right? No, it is not! Consider this! 0.01% of DNA is responsible for all the differences seen between humans and only 1.3% separates us from chimpanzees. 1984 was the last US presidential election with a popular vote gap of more than 8%.

Improving road safety by 8% would save 96,000 lives a year. An investment of $1,000 that grows at 8% compounded annually doubles in just 9 years. And ultimately, if you're an incredibly attractive balloon with big bulging eyes, a perfectly formed cotton ball nose, and surprisingly muscular pipe-cleaner arms, who finds himself caught in a life-or-death game of chance, take advantage of any advantage you can. to avoid being exploited. And as always, thanks for watching.