‘I’m genuinely BAFFLED’ - Andrew Neil on Sunak’s summer election gamble | SpectatorTV

Today I spoke to His Majesty the King to request the dissolution of Parliament. The King has agreed to this request and we will have a general

election

on July 4. These uncertain times demand a clear plan and bold action to keep CH on track toward a solution. secure future, you must choose in this

election

who has that plan, who is prepared to take the bold steps necessary to secure a better future for our country and our children, as Richy Sunak said today when announcing that we will have an election after all Of

summer

. I'm joined on the spectator TV special by Andrew Neil, the spectator president, Andrew, welcome, thank you, first of all, your reaction to today's news.

Well, I'm

baffled

. I was surprised. I did not see him coming. I did not expect it. I thought it would hold on to fall, probably late November. I still think it made sense. I found it interesting that he didn't give any reason when speaking outside the Street diner for why he decided to go on the 4th of July. He didn't give any reason as to why he came out with this surprise? We're just getting the well-worn Conservative themes that we've heard time and time again that have resulted in Labor having a 20% lead and I'm not sure repeating them is going to do that.

There is a lot of difference, so, as I say, bewildered, it seems to me to be a kind of beggar's belief. I don't understand the logic of this, no doubt the people who will be there will be informed why you decided to do this, but as I do Let's go over everything that could happen between now and November. I would say that the Tores have a mountain to climb to win the elections whenever it is. I think it's Mission Impossible, but if they had the chance, it was better in November than in July. Because? It's because a number of things are going well, not in big ways or in a way that will convince the electorate, but it will be more obvious that they have gone well in November, so we learned that this weak inflation went back down to almost 2%, but You know the announcement of one month's inflation figures that excites people like us, but you know that in homes and bars across the country they are not seeing this, they still feel that inflation has been too high, it takes a while to eliminate what would be what would help and of course in November you're probably in a better position to say, look, inflation has been low for five six months, now that we've conquered it, people think yeah, that's a little more compelling, almost as important as inflation, if not as much. needs cuts in interest rates.

Well, there can be no interest rate cuts before the 4th of July. Now the Bank of England cannot cut interest rates in an election campaign that would be seen as interfering with elections the way the Federal Reserve does in the United States. It will not cut or raise interest rates in the run-up to the US election, so the Bank of England cannot do that here, whereas if it had waited in November there could have been one or two interest rate cuts with the KnockOn effect. that would affect mortgages and thirdly on the economic front, we now know that after a terrible period of falling living standards, wages are now rising faster than prices;

In other words, real wages are rising and we know that will continue into the

summer

and fall, so again that would be a strong message for November, but right now people are not going to believe that their wages are rising any faster. than the prices, they feel it because they don't feel it that way. within six months or whatever until November, a sense that inflation, the Dragon of Inflation, had really been slain, that interest rates were also going down, the most politically important mortgage rates and that finally real wages were rising again and you could see there you get the feeling that yes, maybe our living standards are coming back, he can't do any of that right now on the 4th of July and then there's also Rwanda Of course, this Boris Johnson-era politician she chose to inherit, decided to stick her record on May's flights may take off later this year, so why not wait?

Well, that's true and I don't think I know enough about it, but I doubt there are any flights to Rwanda at this time on the 4th of July or if there are. It will be symbolic and that will not convince people and if I were a labor advisor in the Labor Party I would simply say: look, it is a cut and run job because they have not stopped the boats and They are holding the elections before the mass summer migration to through the channel in July and August because they haven't solved the problem now, that may or may not be true, but it's quite effective to say so I don't think so. that helps them in some way it doesn't give them enough time people are not convinced and we are about to receive something, not the illegal migration of the rafters, but we are about to receive new migration figures that will come out this week, which will not be good for the government, there will still be a lot more of what people want and want to reflect the recent measures the government has taken to reduce legal migration, but lo and behold, we will have had the impact of these measures by the fall, yes we will be.

It will be irrelevant by then, so that's why I'm really puzzled. I can't think of any good reason other than rich Sunak has had enough and wants out, yeah I mean I guess he's just thinking it all over for all the reasons you've given. maybe the positive story can never be positive enough, is there also an argument that actually the longer he waits the more MPS might defect to reform or work, so he's just thinking he literally can't get better than What is it currently? he might be thinking that and you know he might be right that no matter how good the story is he's still hiding in the void that would probably be my instinct even if he's not arguing that if he waited until November he would win .

I'm simply arguing that he would have a better chance of winning or at least mitigating the size of the Labor majority than going in July, the fourth, and a lot can go wrong for the role. for the Tor party again, which seems to be incredibly accident prone, but the Labor Party is also quite accident prone. I mean, I would have taken the risk, you know, Harold Wilson, not Harold Wilson, he was the Labor Prime Minister Harold McMillan, the old Tory Wise Old T owl of a Prime Minister who won by a landslide in 1959, used to argue that he that determined policy was events, Dear Boy, events, well, although the Labor Party has an almost unassailable lead in office, there is something quite unstable, there is something quite fragile about the Labor Party.

It doesn't seem ready for prime time. It doesn't seem like he's really gotten his act together. He suffers from self-inflicted wounds, such as the Angelo rer case or the rather childish response of David Lamy's student politician to the international criminal court in favor of the Israeli Prime Minister. so look, it's what Don Rumsfeld would have called one of the known unknowns, maybe the workers will sail through the summer and fall and still be in good shape, but maybe they'll also have done something stupid by then because they're prone to doing so. , so I would have waited and given them a little time to see what happens.

Yes, a little dangerous for the conservatives who are in a kind of self-inflating mess, but also the workers are not workers. You know, it was very close to the election in '97 and there's no doubt that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were ready for prime time in '97, they were really ready in '95 96 for prime time in Los Angeles or not, and I think the longer it went on, the more it would have been rumbled on the 4th of July no chance yes yes yes very interesting Do you think that's also something to keep in mind given the local elections and the Muslim vote and the way it turned out?

Do you know if the situation in Gaza is getting worse? Netanyahu is even more huh. The workforce is now in a difficult position regarding Gaza, a bit like Mr. Biden in the United States, plus there is a core part of the workforce that is Muslim and they don't like that. the most prominent position on the Middle East that could become tougher there is also an unpleasant element to that vote that could have become more prominent, you know, a long hot summer and you could see some pretty difficult things happen again, what do you have to lose?

Yeah, I mean, if it looks like you're really going to go to defeat, which I think is what I'm saying, is what would happen to the Conservatives every time elections are held, then what can you lose by wait a bit just to see maybe? some cards will fall your way which you can lose unless you just want to get out of this unless you've decided that's it. I've had enough, let's get this over with and I can head to Silicon Valley or even return to your constituency. in North Yorkshire is possibly quite a sad ending, yes, speaking of sad, let's talk about the optics of the speech because as viewers will have seen at home, they know he was standing there with the rain getting heavier, no one could have done it. give him an umbrella apparently uh new Labor song things can only get better by drowning the prime minister in this big and emotional moment is that the best thing they could have done I thought two things, the first less important than them first of all I thought it was a curiously lackluster performance from the Prime Minister, only the old Tor songs came out, as I say, no reason was given as to why he chose the 4th of July and there is nothing new to say, that is a political thing for me, more important.

I thought the whole scene was emblematic of the state we're in now. I mean, here's the British Prime Minister standing in the rain. They couldn't even provide him with an umbrella. Why were they doing it outside? Anyway, they built this. New press room uh that has wood paneling and Luke's Prime Minister etc but no and you know these idiots play the music loud at the end and by the way why are you allowed to do that ? Surely he must be breaking noise laws. and decb and so on and yet we do nothing about it, just like we do nothing about these just stop the oil idiots stopping ordinary workers from trying to get to their jobs, the combination of this diminished prime minister Standing in the rain getting soaked with some jester. playing music outside Dining Street, I mean, would an American president, even a diminished Joe Biden, ever allow that?

Would mr maon ever allow that even the german chancellor, who looks like an accountant, would not allow it either? what British Prime Minister, how a British Prime Minister should be introduced or how he should be treated, the police should have arrested that guy immediately and stopped the music immediately and in fact the press conference should never have been scheduled or the statement It should never have been scheduled for the outside, yeah, first of all, I'm not sure I can say this on viewer television, which is terribly refined, but I want to say that it was. They really couldn't organize the proverbial piss in a brewery.

They really couldn't, yes, absolutely. and well, Andrew, finally, I'm looking forward to the next 6 weeks, you know, is there any way for the Tes to change this? I don't think so, not in six weeks. I think we have reached a moment where the country stopped listening. for the tourist uh, it happened to John Major in '97, no matter what the tourist says, people just say, you've had your time, yeah, you've had enough, no, we're not choking on K Starma in the way that we really wanted Tony Blair to be our new Prime Minister in 1997, we are not choking on him, but they have run out of time and I don't think they can do much about it and I am surprised and I also think that Even if the Conservatives in the next six weeks they can convey their message that the economy has really turned a corner, I don't think that's the vote winner, they think that's cu.

I look at Mr Biden in America and he has a much better economic record than Mr Sunak to stand for re-election in November and a much better established economic record of lower inflation, higher growth, massive job creation, real wages, rising of living standards, recovery and yet, despite everything, they are still lagging in the polls and On the economy, Donald Trump is way ahead of them, so I don't think the economy is really the winner, even if they convey their message. There is almost nothing they can do now and I suppose the increased interest in Look, Labor could still make a huge mess of the campaign, but the absence that I suppose we are reduced to now for the 2024 election is how big is the Labor majority and how decimated the SNP will be in Scotland. two great stories now