How powerful is Iran really? | Mapped Out

Iran seems quite

powerful

. Somehow he is involved in many conflicts. The Iranian regime is funding militia groups throughout the region. And he even launched a direct attack on Israel, something that used to be prohibited. But how much is just for show? He projects an image of power externally, while internally he is extremely fragile. Still, Iran's leaders maintain their grip on power. As? We will examine the key strategies that the Islamic Republic has mastered. And we will try to find out: how

powerful

is it

really

? Iran is caught between the Middle East and the rest of Asia.

To the north, Russia, a strategic ally. And to the south, the main world trade routes, seem a pretty good environment for an oil-rich country that aspires to become a regional power. But... Iran feels extremely insecure, isolated in that part of the world, doesn't

really

have much in terms of regional alliances. This is political economist Sara Bazoobandi. She grew up in Iran and has worked on Iranian issues for more than 20 years. A quick look at the map can explain that feeling of isolation: Iran is the country with the largest Shiite Muslim population in the world. But all of these neighboring countries have a Sunni majority, which is another, much larger branch of Islam.

Among them is Iran's main rival, Saudi Arabia. Both compete for dominance in the Muslim world. Iran is even ruled by a cleric: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been the “Supreme Leader” of the Islamic Republic for the past 35 years. The Iranian revolution created the Islamic Republic in 1979. It was anti-Western in essence, after a history of British and American meddling in the country. That's another history. Today, we often see demonstrations like this in Tehran, conveying the rhetoric of the Iranian regime. Since the revolution, he has considered the United States and Israel his main enemies. And both have targeted Iran.

Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian general, was assassinated in 2020 by the United States. He has become a martyr for the Iranian regime. And Israel is believed to be behind this attack. Seven military officers were killed in an airstrike on an Iranian consulate in Syria. Iran is using these disruptive tactics: proxy militias, drones and its nuclear program. There's a lot to unpack there. But let's start with Iran's support for proxy militias. In recent months, Houthi rebels have attacked and sunk commercial ships in the Red Sea, killing several crew members. The Houthis are a militia group based in Yemen and backed by Iran.

They reportedly use Iranian intelligence (and their drones and missiles). Like Iran, the Houthis consider Israel an enemy. They say the attacks on ships are a response to Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza. With the help of Iranian drones, a group like the Houthis with very few resources managed to become a key instability factor that really brought global maritime security to the brink of a crisis. Before the attacks, about a third of the world's container traffic passed through the Red Sea. Since the attacks began, insurance costs for ships have skyrocketed. Many ships now avoid the Red Sea altogether.

And take this route – much longer – to get to Europe. An expensive detour that could even increase the cost of shopping at the local supermarket. Other militias include the powerful Hezbollah in Lebanon. Clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have intensified on the border. And there are other militant groups in Iraq, Syria and Bahrain. And Hamas in the Palestinian territories, which many analysts do not consider a proxy per se, but which obtains financing, weapons and training from Iran. Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the EU. The militant group launched an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, after which Israel responded with a large-scale invasion and bombing of Gaza.

Iran denied being involved in planning the October 7 attack. But this is what their Supreme Leader said about it: We kissed the foreheads and upper arms of the intelligent and brave Palestinians who planned these attacks against the Zionist regime. Iran describes these groups as the “Axis of Resistance” against Israel, the United States and the West as a whole. But ultimately, maintaining all of these operations requires a lot of leadership and a lot of resources. Therefore, managing the proxies is not cheap, but for now it is worth it for the Iranian regime. Iran can attack Israel and destabilize the region by keeping the conflict away from its own borders.

Drones are another part of Iran's playbook. Due to international sanctions, Iran lacks access to advanced technology available elsewhere. So, it began designing and producing drones, which are relatively cheap and low-tech. But they are effective: barely detectable by radar and can carry warheads. Iran says it is exporting drones and drone technology to more than 20 countries, including Tajikistan, Armenia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Venezuela and Algeria. …and Russia is using Iranian drones in its war against Ukraine. It has put Iran on the international map. You know, the use of Iranian drones in Europe, in the war in Ukraine, was quite sobering for many policymakers, especially in Europe.

It has made Iran relevant to a region beyond its traditional sphere of influence. And then there is Iran's large and diverse missile arsenal. Iran and its allies launched hundreds of missiles and drones toward Israel in 2024. Iran's first direct attack on Israel. Iran said it was retaliation for the deadly airstrike on an Iranian consulate in Syria that we mentioned earlier. Israel and its partners intercepted almost all of the bombing. Partly because Iran clearly signaled its plans in advance. So the attack caused little real damage to the ground. The bottom line is that Iran and its armed forces have demonstrated their power and determination on a major international stage.

This show of force has occurred and that is what matters. Iran maintains a delicate balance: trying to show strength while avoiding open conflict. This is Kamran Matin. He is a professor of international relations and has researched extensively on Iran. These strategies, rather than being inherently offensive, are supposedly defensive because Iran thinks the West is trying to overthrow the regime at any opportune moment, so they are considered deterrents. And deterrence is at the center of Iran's strategy. Which brings us to Iran's nuclear program. These are Iran's key nuclear facilities. The Iranian regime has repeatedly said they are used for research and energy production.

But do they do it? The Iranian nuclear project produces more or less electricity and energy at the moment. So, is Iran building nuclear weapons? The truth is that we do not know. But even the idea that Iran could become a nuclear power is valuable to the regime. It projects stability for the Iranians' military and security agenda. And it makes it very difficult to confront Iran. The nuclear project becomes a bargaining chip, if you will, in Iran's negotiations with the West aimed at eliminating sanctions or improving its position in the international arena. And for a while, that's what happened.

The nuclear deal between Iran and major world powers offered sanctions relief. In exchange, Iran had to limit its nuclear enrichment. But then Donald Trump, as president of the United States, withdrew from the agreement. Inflection point. Iran initiated a new strategy that the Iranian political elite calls the “pivot to the East.” And this turn to the East means, or has meant, a much more strategic relationship with China and Russia. China is the main buyer of Iranian oil. And Iran and Russia have a deepening strategic partnership. But it goes further: it involves Iran, Russia and China conducting joint naval exercises.

Iran has been very clear that it has a vision for a new world order. In this new world order, American power is declining. Therefore, non-Western powers are on the rise. Iran has recently joined the BRICS, an economic bloc that aims to be an alternative to the major Western powers. But Iran cannot fully depend on these countries. China and Russia have skillfully kept Iran around the corner, you know, they've kept Iran at arm's length, bringing Iran in when it suits them. Thus, the Iranian regime practically only trusts itself. It depends on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC, which exists parallel to the conventional Iranian army and has better resources.

The IRGC is key to all the strategies we have analyzed, outside the country. But also, inside. And that's where Iran's repressive leadership starts to look weak. Every authoritarian regime depends on a certain level of popular support, and that level of popular support in Iran has been declining significantly in recent decades. And I think that is one of the most dangerous issues that go against the stability of the regime. In 2022, the death of Jina Mahsa Amini while in police custody sparked nationwide protests. At first, protests focused on solidarity with Amini and demands for women's rights. But they quickly became something else: corruption, poverty and lack of freedom.

The regime has crushed any dissent. But the protests exposed cracks in his power. To pacify this extremely angry society, the Islamic Republic needs to improve the economic situation, but it cannot because it is under sanctions, due to its nuclear project. But it does not want to abandon the nuclear project because it considers it insurance for its survival. This complex relationship with outside and inside has created this endemic crisis in Iran. So what can we learn from all this? Iran is not as powerful as it would like to be. But overall, their strategies are effective. Iran knows how to disrupt and destabilize for its own benefits... and outside its own borders.

How long will the regime be able to maintain its control over both, in the region and domestically? As long as the country is run by religious hardliners, things are unlikely to change.