COVID- 19 Thursday morning 27 Feb

well, good

morning

everyone, it's Friday, February 27, 2020 and you're welcome and thank you for coming back now to see the situation in the world today, there are no cases in Antarctica, in other words, this case is in everyone else . continents on the planet now focusing a little today I want. I have some special reports from China and Iran that I want to share with you, but first just a little background news and what this means now, South Korea first of all 334 new cases yesterday, bringing the total in the country to 1595 confirmed cases and as we have said several times these are reliable numbers, there are currently 13 deaths and 21,000 additional tests being done and basically all public gatherings have been closed for the next 10 days church gatherings are suspended, childcare is suspended and lunch groups are suspended, I think mothers and toddlers, all that, that kind of thing where people get together and the government officially closes it down for the next 10 days to stop people from mixing. each other. spreading the virus 114 people traveled from South Korea to China plus quarantine by the Chinese authorities for 14 days and the large military exercise has been canceled which shows that the US and the South Korean military are taking this seriously and we assume that there are also many cases in North Korea.

Now Italy continues to expand and, in fact, spread to other places from Italy, so 453 confirmed cases and 12 deaths last week in Italy. since last Friday and now we are a little over day two, it looks like the virus has probably been in Italy for two or three weeks, now the UK has two more cases, they came from Italy and 10 Reef, so from Italy remember that. outbreak in Tenerife by that Italian doctor who was staying at the Santa Cruz hotel in Tenerife and as infected people as far as we know in that hotel that is still in quarantine the ministers in my country expect more cases to emerge in British Airways as The cancellation of flights to Milan now moves on to other points and I think I will say one more thing about my own country: the NHS tells us that we are fully prepared for an epidemic.

To tell the truth, we are not completely prepared for a normal winter. The coolness of saying we could deal with thousands of additional people who are wrong is inconsistent with my experience anyway. Now another interesting case here: this is an Italian cruise ship Maravene, that is the Italian cruise ship that is now in the Caribbean and has been rejected by Jamaica. the Cayman Islands and now Mexico, because a crew member is sick after visiting Milan, it's not surprising that, being an Italian ship, you can understand these people. If it were docked in Jamaica, then Jamaica's healthcare infrastructure simply would not be available. able to cope if a lot of extra patients were required especially if it was spreading to their own people and the same with the Cayman Islands, relatively small infrastructure and Mexico has also moved away so I think that ship probably needs to return to Italy , but I know what they're doing now, it's like one of those drifting ships right now.

The United States still allows flights from Italy to South Korea. This is the kind of underreaction that has caused problems to date and I hope it doesn't cause more problems for the United States, but I suspect that now France 18 confirmed cases 60 your man is the second to die in France who died today or yesterday and The first case has also been confirmed in Brazil, this was me. I understand someone who flew from Italy but, of course, you have to think not only about the first case that was identified in Brazil, but about all the people who were on the plane with all this travel stuff, to know if we believe that the first case initially just arrived.

I've been to Brazil and compare it to the US still allowing flights from Italy in South Korea. You can draw your own conclusions from that. Now, moving on to Iran, I have gathered the reports as best I can from Iran and China. This

morning

, informed people on the ground in Iran, clinical and non-clinical, told me that there are enormous infrastructure and organizational difficulties in Iran. Very limited health infrastructure. Lack of equipment and training. And of course, this is what we've been worried about from the beginning because we knew that this virus will likely take hold in countries where there are limited or weak health systems that allow the virus to proliferate in the absence of surveillance and medical care.

Understaffed and overworked doctors and nurses are doing their best, but this is one of the factors in the high mortality rate, so we know that many people have complications from this condition, perhaps between ten and fourteen percent become ill again with this condition, eighty percent have a mild condition, and a considerable minority will become ill. This and how well they do and the chances of them surviving absolutely depends on the medical support they will receive during that time. Now doctors and nurses cannot offer any solution to cure this condition, but we can do a lot to support people when the poor like to give them oxygen, such as giving them antibiotics to cover secondary bacterial infections, so there are many things we can do and without that the mortality rate will increase and this seems to be the tragic case in Iran now it has been a bad combination.

By circumstances, on February 11, Iran was celebrating the 41st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution when the Shah of Iran was overthrown and it is also the end of the 40-day Islamic mourning period for Kusum Soleimani, who was assassinated, you may remember months ago. , so these two things. met and both are events of great national importance for the government, which is why there have been massive demonstrations on February 11 in Tehran and other cities with large numbers of people gathering in close proximity, crowded in squares, some voluntarily, others under orders . from the government, but there were still a large number of people there, so that was on February 11, so it is reasonable to assume that there was a lot of spread at that time, now that February 20 was the parliamentary elections and they did not want reduce turnout in these elections, so basically things were covered up until a day or two before when the news broke, but it's been really bad timing, a bit like the situation in China with the Chinese New Year festivals and again for these celebrations.

They go back and forth traveling across the country going to Hurom City, so the combination of travel and crowds is clearly bad, apparently the 700 Chinese students in a hall that is the epicenter of the outbreak as far as we know. Iran and the students live in dense dormitories and have now been sent home, which of course is going to spread the condition even further, so this golden period of containment is tragic, but China's DejaVu, isn't it? It was a golden period of containment and It was ignored by a local official who repressed local doctors and a similar situation seems to have arisen as a result of the repression here in Iran, allowing, as far as we know, huge holes in the feet of the disease in that surrounding country with spread to others.

People have already lost a golden period of containment possibilities when sanctuaries are still open. Local clerics are apparently opposed to closing these shrines and there are very dense gatherings at these shrines for Islamic festivals and ceremonies. Very dense crowds, at the moment, largely due to poor health infrastructure. It seems and this is not an official WHU here this is from doctors writing to me from Iran and people who are talking to different doctors in Iran say the case fatality rate is probably around 5% right now, that's probably double what it needs to be or more than the tube or what it needs to be so those are some of my reports from the great country of Iran, now moving on to China China there were 433 new deaths reported new cases reported on Thursday 29 deaths reported on Thursday that raises the total to seventy-eight thousand four hundred and ninety-seven confirmed cases in China now no one disputes or underestimates them that the Chinese or foreigners do not question that they are below the estimates, we know that they are far below the estimates, but this es has gone down a lot, the number of new cases is reducing considerably now there are still new cases every day, but much fewer new cases than they were receiving and this is due to the containment measures that are being taken in China.

Kilian efforts are absolutely being made to reduce the spread. of the virus in China and that is reducing the nothing that is reducing the number of people that any individual that has the infection is infecting and I have an example of this in the province of Chengdu Sichuan, this is a huge city sixteen point three million people They've been on lockdown for about a month, even after three weeks of travel restrictions, so the city has been pretty shut down for the last four weeks. Apartment complex where people live. I have issued small cards with the code that is scanned each and every time.

When entering and leaving the apartment block, no one without the card can enter the apartment complex until recently. Until recently, we restricted going out of the complex to three times a week and only then to grocery shopping at one. from the two local stores and every time you go out, masks are absolutely mandatory and the use of glasses and gloves is highly recommended, and please note that this is a city, only one city in China, and it has sixteen point three three million of people, it is a huge Social exercise is now highly discouraged, traveling to Bilan beyond the supermarkets, rather than indulging in shopping, and most other items can be delivered to the front door of the complex, so that deliveries arrive at the complexes, if you are a delivery driver, you work.

Only on a motorcycle are you allowed to access the roads and you are given a special pass to do so. These drivers must wear helmets, face shields, masks and gloves. the delivery men who work on the road are present. the only stores open a grocery store. and convenience stores and now they have restricted hours and reduced staff all the stores are closed obviously cinemas cafes restaurants gyms swimming pools bars discos, etc. All weddings and other ceremonies associated with large groups of people have been canceled and The economic effects are serious, but most people are complying with these closure measures because they realize that it is necessary to stop the spread of the virus. .

The people in the complex of the people who wrote this email have been confirmed to have the virus, so have the people in their apartment block. Whatever you call it, I have been confirmed to have the virus. Now, when this happens, you have the option of going to a quarantine center or they will put a paper tape over your door and you can stay inside your apartment for a period of time. time and it's not very clear how long that period of time is since this communication, so they put a piece of paper tape over your door.

This tape is checked daily and if it breaks, you will be taken to quarantine for violating your agreement because you have to accept now. You've seen YouTube videos of people being grouped up, but this is what you're seeing on YouTube with people being taken by force because they violated the quality, but it's probably not for the first offense, so these videos you're seeing are people being grouped up. . From afar, they seem totalitarian, draconian and drastic, but from this experience, at least in Chen, this huge city of Chengdu, where the eight were, there are sixteen sixteen point three, three million people, most of the people meet and only people who have broken quarantine a couple of times. that they are no longer taken to quarantine centers and I would stay in their own homes, but most people comply.

I can only admire the discipline of each Chinese people. Food and essential items are brought to you daily and delivered by special staff. through the outside window of an apartment, so if there are positive cases in your block of flats, red papers are placed over the door and you are fed through the window, unfortunately the interconnectivity of the internet and things in cities They are very good in China. The infrastructure is excellent and people work and receive education remotely, although of course not everyone can do this. Now the situation regarding masks is quite variable. In China, in fact, there is a government subsidy of three masks per day that people get at an extremely low cost. from government suppliers, but sometimes they are in short supply, but of course you can't go out without a mask, so you have to see that you are wearing it and apparently someone on someone's team, such scrupulous people are selling cheap masks that look like masks, but Don't really do anything underneath and second hand masks are also sold which is clearly crazy, they will be contaminated and thestreets are empty.

This is unprecedented, so that is the situation in a Chinese city, so the Chinese people are closing. in a way that, to be honest, I can't really imagine working in London or in places like that very disciplined and very disciplined population and that is slowing down the epidemic and that is giving us all the time that we need to prepare and yes, they are buying time let's use that time let's not make blind statements about being well prepared when we know we are not and prepare for the arrival of this or this virus