Why there is no way back for religion in the West | David Voas | TEDxUniversityofEssex

Translator: Leonardo Silva Reviewer: Peter van de Ven Hello. My name is David Voas and I'm going to talk about

religion

. Now, I know some of you are really tempted to rush for the exit at this stage, but I must explain that I am a quantitative social scientist and I am going to talk about the decline of

religion

in the Western world. Now, whether measured by belonging, beliefs, participation in services, or how important you feel in life, religion is losing ground across the Western world. Society is transforming and the momentum seems unstoppable. Well, at this point you may be asking yourself a couple of questions.

First, is it really true? And even if religion is losing ground, could things change in the future? I'm going to argue that yes, it really is true and that no, things won't change. Modernization has predictable and permanent effects, one of which I call secular transition. Well, it's not true that the pattern of decline is that people reach the age of 30, 40, or 50 and suddenly decide that they are no longer religious. What happens is that they reach adulthood less religious than their parents. Then there is a process of generational replacement, where older people who are more religious die and are replaced in the population by younger people who come after them.

And that is a process that has been happening for decades throughout the Western world; in some cases, for a century or more. Let me take as an example if people claim to have a religion. And I'll use the example particularly of New Zealand, which has a census question on this topic. If you look at this graph, the horizontal axis at the bottom shows the year of birth. So we go from the beginning of the 20th century, on the left, to the end of the 20th century, on the right. And you can see that among the older generations, those on the left side, practically everyone says they have a religion.

And if we go down to the right side, about two-thirds say no. So it is a remarkable change that has occurred in the course of less than a century. Well, these types of stories are found throughout the Western world, even in the United States, which is often considered an exception. There things have started more recently, the process is just beginning to be noticed, but it is happening. I will return to the United States in a moment. And it is similar whatever measure we take. The same thing happens, for example, with attendance at religious services. Well, you might be thinking, "Okay, the old Christian denominations are struggling, people don't identify with them as much, they may not go to services, but surely they still believe in God, or in any case, they are spiritual in nature." certain sense, even if they are not religious.

Well, here's the United States, and this shows the proportion of people who say they know that God really exists and have no doubts about it, again by year of birth: older people on the left, younger people on the right. And you can see that in the older section of the population, something on the order of three-quarters, say they know that God really exists, and that figure drops to not much better than 2 in 5 for people born later in the 20th century. Or Canada, for example, where we have data on the importance of religious or even spiritual beliefs in life.

And here again we see a sharp generational gradient, from something like two-thirds of the older generation saying that these beliefs are very important to them, and that drops to something like 1 in 5 for the younger generations of adults. Well, looking at them, you might be wondering if I'm simply comparing the effect of being old to the effect of being young. Is it true that people become more religious as they age? Well, we now have census and survey data going

back

quite a few years (decades, in fact) across the Western world, and we can answer that question. And the answer is no.

On average, people of a given generation do not change throughout their adult lives. So what we are seeing is not the effect of age, but permanent generation gaps. The lack of religion is not just a stage that young people go through. So this idea that there is something about modernization that erodes religious commitments, that reduces the respect given to religion, is known as the secularization thesis. And there are a couple of objections that are commonly raised today to the secularization thesis. One is the example of the United States, which is modern and yet religion seems to thrive.

And if this is an exception, then it is surely not possible to make generalizations. The other objection commonly raised is that we are seeing a change, not a decline, and that while those old conventional churches may be struggling, there are new churches, new religious movements (Mormons and Pentecostals, for example), there is an alternative spirituality . and, indeed, non-Christian religions, such as Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism, which are gaining ground throughout the West. Well, as I mentioned a moment ago, even in the United States, in fact, the decline seems to have begun. We barely have data now to notice it, but it seems to have started a few decades ago.

And it is following the same pattern of generational replacement that we have observed in other parts of the West. And while it is true that there have been events, particularly immigration, that have brought people from more religious countries to the Western world, those effects are not large enough to reverse the main trend. So far so good or so bad, depending on your view of religion. Secularization is happening. But a big question still remains. You may be wondering, "Isn't it possible that the popularity of religion can be restored, even in the Western world?" After all, faith promises benefits that are difficult or impossible to obtain any other way.

It offers meaning, purpose, comfort, ultimate justice, life after death, the prospect of being reunited with loved ones, etc. Isn't it true, you may ask, that nothing is irreversible? I think today there is a certain reluctance to believe that we are converging towards a certain future. This is a notion that was popular in the mid-20th century, but has fallen out of favor. Now it reminds us a little of the Victorian idea of ​​progress, according to which the highest form of civilization is represented by people who are remarkably like us. And yet, modernization has effects. We can look, for example, at the Human Development Index, which is calculated each year by a United Nations agency.

It is based on life expectancy, years of education, and national income per capita. And in that sense, Norway is currently on top; Niger, in Africa, is at the bottom. And when looking at this list of all the different countries in the world, it is very evident that the most developed countries are the least religious and the least developed countries are the most religious. Now, there are some exceptions. There are, for example, the countries of the Arabian Peninsula that produce oil and are outside the trend line. They are rich, but religious. But in the mid-20th century they were underdeveloped and very traditional.

Thus, it is true that religious decline comes very late in the modernization process, but it does come, at least if societies modernize. If we think about the very question of whether religion can decline in society, it is often objected that most of the world is religious. And that's very true, but most of the world is not very developed. So I'm referring specifically to the 40 or 50 countries that have gone furthest along the path of modernization: places in Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, some in East Asia, some in Latin America. The 140, 150 countries in the rest of the world are very different.

It is not easy to specify the causal mechanisms, and in fact it would take a few more talks to even attempt to outline some of the factors that might connect modernization to the problems of religion. But to name just a few: prosperity brings with it choice and an unwillingness to defer to traditional authority; secular and scientific worldviews begin to displace religious worldviews; Communications and geographic mobility bring people with different cultures and beliefs into contact; and physical and material security seems to reduce the need for the comfort that spirituality provides. Now, regardless of whether any or perhaps all of these factors are at work, it is clear that there is something about the modernization process that does cause problems for religion.

Furthermore, it is very difficult for religion to recover. We know of some places where religious participation has increased in recent decades, but these are typically places where national elites have suppressed religion or imposed a degree of secularity lower than what the country's development would consider natural. So, one thinks, for example, of Iran, the former Soviet Union, China, and even perhaps Turkey, but when those regimes fell or restrictions were relaxed, religion rebounded to a level that was more like an appropriate level, given the degree of modernization. So the secular transition is underway, but why should it be irreversible?

I think the key reason is that people without religion have great difficulty acquiring one. And if you're wondering why that is, it might be helpful to understand this to think about a religion that isn't your own. Now, I'm going to assume that most of those watching are not Hindus. Apologies to those of you who are. You can think of a different religion. But here are, as examples, some of the Hindu deities. And here are some scenes of Hindu worship. Now, some of you may decide that Hinduism is the faith you've been looking for, but I suspect that for most of you, it seems a little exotic, strange, maybe even a little scary.

And I suggest that that is the position that a large proportion of young adults in the West find themselves in with respect to any religion. They did not grow up going to church and do not feel comfortable attending. They did not grow up with Christian doctrine. That doesn't mean they won't become Christians. Some of them will. Many will do it. Some will become Hare Krishna, Muslims or Buddhists. But most won't, and for most, in fact, it's almost impossible. You have to be raised in a religion to find it natural. Now, I'm not suggesting that religious beliefs are inherently implausible or that religious practice is inherently strange.

Otherwise. What I want to argue is that it is a matter of custom and culture. So in the past, in the West, most people had a religion, at least nominally. Most people had some kind of religious knowledge. Religious participation was the norm and supported by culture and popular sentiment. Today, the default situation is quite the opposite. Many people grow up with very little knowledge of religion or religious identity. Religion has become almost countercultural, in fact, to the extent that people who have some contact with religion often appear in news stories about extremism, abuse or intolerance. And that is simply not conducive to religious revival.

I am not saying that Westerners are all rationalists, with a naturalistic view of the world. Otherwise. A large proportion, at least half, believe in God or something that exists, perhaps a higher power. Another large proportion, perhaps not overlapping, believes in some form of life after death. But for most people, it's not something they're really interested in, it's not something very important in their lives; They have little interest in becoming religiously active. So the secular transition is underway. Because it is produced through generational replacements, it works very slowly and will continue for years to come. When it comes to human beings, nothing is certain, but I hope I have shown you that there is a good argument that there is no turning

back

for religion in the West.

Thank you. (Applause)