Which Senior Tories Could Lose their Seats?

In the run-up to the 1997 general election there was a widespread understanding that Labor was at the pinnacle of power, that the current Conservative government was being misled in the media by a popular young Tony Blair and many knew that the nearly 20 years of conservative rule would soon come to an end, this prediction turned out to be correct and on the night of the vote, 133 conservatives were ousted, among them was the current defense secretary, Michael Portillo, a

senior

member of the conservative party and someone who is set to succeed John Major in the Labor party. 20,000 thanks. ladies and gentlemen, and the shock of this moment in the '97 election made it one of the most memorable moments in recent political history, to the point that the term Portillo moment is now used to refer to any important figure who unexpectedly

lose

s his seat in the elections.

Well, on election night we expect a number of Portillo moments specifically from

senior

conservatives, while this will definitely be interesting to keep an eye on tonight, it's certainly not the only thing worth paying attention to in this election . It affects all the main parties and there is a real possibility of a complete realignment in British politics with the Lib Dems potentially moving to overtake the Conservatives and become the main opposition party, so in this video we will look at exactly what it should do. pay attention on election night with each of the political parties before moving on and discuss

which

conservative beasts might be losing

their

seats

before you begin.

If you haven't already, consider subscribing and ringing the bell to stay informed. and be notified when we post new videos Now, all we really have to do now to predict what will happen tonight is the MRP polls and while they all differ slightly in

their

predictions, they generally agree that it will happen. For a particularly bad night for the Conservatives and the SMP and a good night for Labor and the Lip Democrats on the Labor front, predictions range from the low 400s to the high 500s. Mark now, to be fair, any number within This r would be impressive and

could

well represent the largest number of

seats

ever won by the Labor Party currently the record is 48 seats won by Tony Blair in 1997 a record that

could

be broken the conservatives may also set a record tonight the percentage lowest seats ever achieved According to their party, as things stand, this record was set in 1906, when the Conservatives won only 156 seats and, unfortunately for them, basically all MRP polls predict that they will win fewer seats than these this night, anywhere between the 130 and 150 mark would be seen as a pretty bad night for them, but better than expected and not the end of the world.

A seat share between 100 and 130 is essentially what most people expect at the moment, but it will be seen as a pretty terrible performance by Sunak, although anything below 100 is a double-digit Armageddon in terms of seats will be deeply humiliating and will exacerbate partisan infighting within the party and questions would also begin to arise as to whether the party could ever recover. What makes the situation even worse is the fact that the Liberal Democrats are predicted to win. between 40 and 80 seats, meaning there is a world in

which

they could overtake the Conservatives. This would constitute a huge realignment in British politics and bring the Conservatives even c

lose

r to extinction for reform, although this could be the start of their integration into British politics.

The system polls predict that they are on track to get around 20% of the vote, however, due to the first approval, the best they can hope for in terms of seat count is about seven, however, this will give them a pretty decent beachhead. To work on the next election, here's roughly how each party is expected to do and the numbers to watch out for, but what about the people whose Conservatives are expected to lose their seats? The biggest potential potillo moment on election night is undoubtedly If he were to lose his seat, he would be the first sitting Prime Minister to do so in British history, an accolade he will surely want to avoid at the moment.

Sonak is sitting in a huge, however, Sonak is likely to take comfort in the fact that all other recent MRP polls have predicted he will retain his seat despite many of these MRPs predicting a damaging election for Sunak. , but not so bad that he will ultimately be pushed into third place, so whether Sak is the first Prime Minister in history to suffer the indignity of losing his seat will be determined by which end of the MRP Spectrum poll ends up being correct . With this in mind, let's go ahead and discuss another key figure in the current Conservative government.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt again. It is worth saying that no chancellor. has ever lost his seat in a general election in British history and, like Sunak Hunt, he will not want to be first, unlike Sunak, although his constituency is far from safe, as his majority in 2019 was only 8,817 votes considering Labor and the Liberal Democrats. They have overturned much larger majorities in by-elections in recent years and with the national Conservative polls so low this constituency shouldn't be too difficult to flip and unfortunately for Hunt the current MRP polls also support this, in fact They are the only MRP polls so far.

What says Hunt will retain his seat is the June 18 ipsos poll and to be fair even in this poll the prediction is that Hunt will only win his seat by one point, with him on 34% and the Lib Dems with a 33 every two. The MRP poll predicts a loss for Democrats as things stand, so Hump seems likely to lose his seat unless the national polls change or there is a marked advance in his local campaign; It's not just these two, there's also Home Secretary James. cleverly elected to the Brain Tree constituency in 2015, he cleverly maintained quite significant majorities there since in 2019 for example he achieved a majority of almost 25,000 votes again, as we saw with Sunak, it is not impossible that this could be overturned tonight , although according to MRP surveys. three predict that he will intelligently lose his seat to Savanta's Labor salvation and we think, and the other nine think that he will intelligently retain his seat albeit with a reduced majority, so overall it seems that not only are the Conservatives expected to lose a huge number of seats across the country, but they are also likely to lose some of their most important political figures, ultimately all of this will become clear on Thursday night when the election results start coming in and if you want to guide you through those results.

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