What is the RISKIEST Region in the US as the Climate Changes?

- In just one year, 2021, nearly one in 10 U.S. households was affected by natural disasters, and many places with the highest

climate

risk in the U.S. are also experiencing some of the largest growth. - When we ask home buyers and sellers directly, is

climate

change affecting their decision to buy a home or move to a particular location? Yes, the answer is yes. But then when you look at the macroeconomic trends of where people are actually moving, it's putting themselves in danger. - Here's the thing: A quick search for climate hazards in almost any geographic location will turn up news of disasters and dire predictions of the worst to come.

So how can we make informed decisions about where to live and how to manage risk? It turns out that although some places will face many more dangers as the climate warms, identifying the

riskiest

places in the future is really difficult. Take Alexander Pyslarash for example. In 2020, he was living in Portland, Oregon, and the wildfires and smoke that summer got so bad that he decided to move to Florida. But when his car nearly flooded while he was driving through Miami Beach during a heavy rain, he realized that he had not escaped his weather problems. That's why we worked with some of the best minds in this space to help us sift through the data, find where the dangers overlap, and map the

riskiest

places in the U.S.

And stay with us to find out where we think the risk might be. riskiest place. (foreboding music) As extreme weather increases across the country, how do we identify the riskiest places? First, let's look at the safest places. These are the 10% safest counties in the US, based on projections of how the climate will change by mid-century. As the humid climate niche, characterized by average annual temperatures of around 55 degrees Fahrenheit, moves north, some places that are now particularly cold could become safer because, as we know from previous episodes, the deadliest weather in the US it's extreme cold. . This ProPublica study also lists the most dangerous counties in the US, and we'll get to that in a moment.

But first, let's add mid-century projections for the risk of floods, storms, fires, droughts and heat to our map. Starting with one of the most local dangers: floods. This map shows the number of properties impacted by future flooding due to rainfall, overflowing rivers, high tides and storm surge. Many coastal cities will be affected by rising sea levels, and places like West Virginia will be hit by heavy rain as the climate warms. According to Redfin, by 2050, 84% of properties in Cape Coral, Florida, and 98% of properties in New Orleans will be at risk of flooding. Houston is also an outlier on this list, due to the sheer number of properties at risk, as we saw when Hurricane Harvey engulfed the city in its record rains in 2017.

But

what

about the storms? It appears that these extreme precipitation events are causing more and more damage as the climate warms. The top 10 cities affected by the storms are mostly in the Northeast, but Portland and Seattle, both sadly rainy cities, also appear here. Now, let's look at the fire. Here, the map shifts dramatically to the west and southeast. This map shows the annual probability of wildfires in 2050. The places most at risk of devastating wildfires are not cities, but homes and developments on the edge of forest lands and places with many fires. And it's not just forested areas that are at risk, but also grasslands and shrublands in

region

s like the Great Basin, particularly places that are becoming drier.

Which brings us to the drought. This map shows decreases in precipitation over the past 30 years compared to the 20th century. But

what

about the future? Well, here are the top five cities predicted to be affected by drought in 2050. Four of them depend on water from the Colorado River, which is already suffering from a decades-long drought, and big cuts in water use are inevitable in Basin. Finally, let's look at the second most common cause of weather-related deaths in the US: heat. This map shows the projected days above 100 degrees in 2053. Oh man, Florida, Texas, and Arizona look pretty hot.

Phoenix is ​​hotter than anywhere else, but in Florida, temperatures don't need to be that high for it to become dangerous because it's humid there, too. This makes it harder for the body to cool itself through sweating. If we take a look at the combined risk of all these climate impacts, we begin to see how different

region

s will fare. And the Southeast will clearly be the most affected by climate change. And now let's add back the data we analyzed earlier, but this time for the 10% of counties most at risk. At this point, we're starting to get a clearer idea of ​​some places you might want to think twice about moving to.

But are we really any closer to determining which is the riskiest place in the country? Perhaps we should look at this issue from a different angle. We caught up with Hannah Hess from Rhodium Group's Climate Impact Lab, where they study how climate change will affect humans in a variety of categories, including mortality rates and the amount of time someone may spend at work due to the temperature. - So what we are seeing on this map is how workers in high-risk industries such as construction, agriculture or manufacturing, being exposed to higher temperatures during the workday, have to change their time. - This could mean starting your workday later or ending it earlier, or taking more frequent breaks to cool off and protect yourself from the heat.

One thing her research shows is that certain places that already experience these extreme temperatures more frequently are better adapted and more equipped to deal with elevated temperatures in the future. - In a place like Florida, which is a good example, workers are already relatively well adapted to this heat. Many people have air conditioning. Many people have discovered ways to cope with extreme heat. - And although Florida tops the list for hurricanes, these disastrous storms are actually quite rare in any given location. Then maybe we can find an even riskier place. - On the contrary, in southern California, southern Arizona, Texas, many of those areas get very, very hot.

And one of the highest risk places in this data set is Phoenix, Arizona. - And you might be surprised at how much the heat is expected to affect people's ability to work, hurting the city's economy. - It is expected that by the end of the century an individual worker will spend 78 fewer hours at work each year. - So if you put that in the context of a company with, say, 200 full-time workers, that would mean 15,600 hours lost each year. But lost work hours isn't the only important metric Phoenix should consider. According to the UNDP website, under a moderate greenhouse gas scenario, Phoenix would see a death rate increase of 79 deaths per 100,000 people from climate change by the end of the century.

And to put it in perspective, traffic accidents cause 15 deaths per 100,000 people. So we are talking about 1/5 of the number of deaths. And under a high-emissions scenario, the number of deaths Phoenix would see is projected to be nearly double, at 148. And ProPublica's earlier study also projects that under that same high-emissions scenario, by mid-century, Phoenix could see temperatures above 95 degrees for about half the year. So when you add up all of Phoenix's different vulnerabilities to extreme heat that we've discussed so far, it starts to look like it could be the most dangerous place to live in the United States due to climate change, or at least near the top of the list. .

And another interesting thing about Phoenix and surrounding Maricopa County is that it is also one of the fastest growing places in the country. And this means even more people at risk and more difficulty adapting to the growing challenges of climate change. But as we mentioned at the beginning of this episode, when you look at the changing trends in the US, the strange thing is that Phoenix isn't that strange. Among the 20 fastest-growing metro areas in the US, you'll recognize many of the places we've already discussed for their climate risks, and almost none of them are in the lowest-risk regions.

But to find out why people are moving to the most dangerous places, let's start by taking a closer look at why they choose to leave the safest ones. - People are leaving these climate-resistant areas for economic reasons. On the one hand, there are people who leave for reasons of affordability. They're leaving the West Coast or the East Coast, these coastal markets where home prices have increased dramatically. People would love to live in the most climate resilient areas. Since San Francisco, for example, has a very moderate temperature, it really has no risk of hurricanes or drought or anything like that.

But people are being forced to leave that area for areas at higher risk of wildfires in inland California due to a lack of housing. So, yes, people care, but money is ultimately the number one motivator, just being able to afford a house in the first place. - In fact, the five cities with the highest population flow are all extremely expensive coastal cities. Another especially safe region is the Midwest or Rust Belt. But people leave there for a totally different reason. - It's not because housing there is not affordable. People in the Midwest are leaving due to a lack of economic opportunity, because they can't find jobs that pay enough to have the standard of living they want.

Then they go to places with greater economic prosperity. -And what does it say about our country that people have to move to increasingly risky places instead of staying away from them? Jesse Keenan is focused on finding answers to problems like these, and his research shows that much of the solution comes down to information. - Our brains are there to get out of the way when a bus is heading towards us or a tiger is running to eat us, right? We are not physiologically oriented toward slow violence and incremental notions of risk. So, from the beginning, our ability to understand the accumulation of risks is impaired.

The more information consumers have access to, the more likely they are to change their behavior accordingly. - The availability of this type of information on long-term hazards is crucial. And according to Redfin data, it's making a difference. - We found an effect: People who previously viewed houses as extremely risky in terms of flood risk switched to making offers on houses with half the risk once they saw that information. So it looks like it's having a tangible impact on customers. The most important thing we can tell people is to prepare. And if we prepare, we can avoid a lot of the damage, because if a lot of homeowners see that they have a really high risk of flooding, maybe they will start mitigating it in advance, or even band together and ask their local government to do something to prepare for it. climate change. -So now that we've really dug into the data on different climate risks across the country, what can we say about the riskiest place of all?

Well, when you take into account all the risks we've talked about, Florida, Louisiana, Texas, and the California-Arizona border seem like places you should think twice before moving. But according to the ProPublica study, there is one county that ranks first. Beaufort County, South Carolina. This county is at risk for almost every natural hazard, including a couple we didn't talk about, crop impacts and wet bulb temperatures. Wet bulb is a great topic to explain here. But for now, I can tell you that it refers to the dangerous combination of heat and humidity, where the human body becomes essentially incapable of cooling itself.

But that's a topic for a future episode. For now, we'd like to hear what you think. Are you thinking about moving or have you recently moved? Has this episode changed the way you think about your decision? Let us know in the comments.