What Happens When Demographics Change Forever?

- For most of my life, experts have been warning us about the dangers of explosive population growth. And that makes a lot of sense, right? It took 300,000 years for the world population to reach 1 billion, but only about 200 years to go from 1 billion to 8 billion. But all that growth is slowing and, based on current birth rates, will eventually stop. The United Nations projects that the world's population will peak at 10.4 billion before the end of the century and then decline. Other projections say it will happen even sooner and will peak at 9.7 billion in 2064. This is one of the most fundamental demographic shifts in human history and economists, policy experts and tech billionaires are freaking out, calling the decline population as an existential threat. .

So is the population exploding or collapsing? And

what

does it mean for the future? I'm Sinead Bovell and this is "Far Out." In 1950, women had an average of five children. Today that figure, also known as the total fertility rate, has been cut in half, to 2.3. Access to contraception, education and employment has caused more women to delay childbirth and have fewer children. Today, two-thirds of the world's population lives in a country where the fertility rate is below the replacement rate, 2.1, which is the number of children needed to keep the population stable. So if the current fertility rate remains the same, then by the end of the century, South Korea's population will shrink by 62%, Poland and Japan will shrink by half, and Italy and Thailand will shrink by about 44%. .

Oh, and then there's China. The most populous country on the planet for centuries reported its first demographic decline in six decades in 2023. By the end of the century, it will be reduced by half. This decline is not occurring at the same rate around the world. In the United States, while the fertility rate is well below the replacement rate (1.7), the population is still expected to increase modestly by 2050 due to migration. And birth rates remain high in some countries. For example, more than half of the world's population growth over the next 30 years will come from countries in sub-Saharan Africa, especially these four countries.

But demographers hope that fertility rates in Africa will eventually follow the trend of the rest of the population. - And I think we're at this point in human history where we're trying to determine whether low fertility rates are an aberration or the new normal. I say they are the new normal, especially over the next two decades. And the way population works is mathematical. So if it's low for a couple of decades, that means there will be fewer babies now who will then reach their reproductive years as smaller cohorts. So even if your fertility rates increase a little, it's a push toward a reduction. - Demographers like Jennifer Sciubba have been following this push toward smaller size for decades.

At first glance, a shrinking world might seem like a relief, especially as we move toward a future with more climate disasters and less biodiversity. But here's the problem: This demographic shift is not happening fast enough to matter in terms of climate

change

. Experts have been saying for years that we need a global transition to clean energy now if we are to get closer to our goal of net zero emissions by 2050, a goal that most of the world is not on track to meet. And focusing too much on population decline, especially in poor countries where fertility rates remain high, also obscures the fact that it is high-income countries that contribute the most to the problem of climate

change

. - And my fear is that we pedal along the line, oh, well, the environment will be fine because our population is shrinking.

And that will be an excuse not to act, because it's really about how much we consume. - Here is the other problem of placing our hopes in an increasingly smaller world. Although fertility rates are declining, we are still adding approximately 130 million people to the planet each year. This is because the number of women of reproductive age has tripled since 1950. That means the number of births will remain high for some decades, even as women have fewer children, because there are simply more women who are of the right age. to have them. children. Life expectancy is also double

what

it was a few generations ago.

So if we continue to add millions of people to the planet every year, why are people worried about demographic collapse? In places where birth rates have been low for decades, the demographic graph looks like this. More older people than younger people, which means fewer future consumers and taxpayers. Add to that an aging population and demanding social programs, and we may have an economic crisis on our hands. - The reason so many leaders in the public and private sectors are concerned about population decline is because they see consumption as the driving force of the economy. And they will do everything they can to ensure that consumption remains high.

Well, that may be contrary to our environmental goals. - An increasing number of countries now have policies that attempt to increase birth rates, but we know from history that trying to coerce birth rates can sometimes lead to human rights violations. To reduce birth rates, that may look like forced sterilization and abortions. And to increase birth rates, there are subtle but still dangerous policies, such as propaganda designed to pressure women to stay home and have more children. Research shows that even benign policies like cash payments cause only temporary increases in the fertility rate. Experts say that instead of reaching an ideal population size, we should help women and families have the number of children they really want to have.

This trend of low birth rates cannot be solved with a simple on/off switch. The future is already written. Most of the people who will live in 2050 have already been born. And population decline is largely a success story, longer, healthier lives and, crucially, more freedom and opportunity for women. There's also a saying that experts keep repeating:

demographics

are not destiny. In the 1960s,

when

the world's population was less than half of today's, the best-selling book, "The Population Bomb," predicted massive food shortages and chaos across the planet. But that didn't happen. Instead, we invented new agricultural techniques, such as improved seeds, high-intensity fertilizers, and drip irrigation.

We can still prepare for the future, but perhaps this includes adapting to a smaller, older world. How do you think we should prepare for a shrinking world? Where do you see the biggest challenges? Let us know in the comments and thanks for watching.