International pressure on Putin stops his ATACMS retaliation strikes | Michael Bociurkiv

If Mr. Putin used such weapons, he would be wiped out in half a day, even if that does not happen. China will draw a red line and tell Moscow not to take that route, so I think we are now looking at the West. Leaders overcome that fear. I think they have realized that Putin is quite a conman when he threatens to use nuclear weapons or attack Western targets. He's not the strongman that he projects himself within Russia and um I think you're realizing that hello and welcome to Frontline for Times with Me radio Kate Jaabo and today we're talking to a Ukraine-based global affairs analyst with more of two decades of experience in humanitarian work and

international

journalism Michael bosv.

He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and has been the organization's spokesperson for security and cooperation in Europe. He is also an author and regular commentator for many

international

media outlets. Michael, welcome back, it's nice to see you again. Now Michael, you've been. In New York for an annual press conference focused on Ukraine, the news has recently focused on Russian incursions and advances in the Har region, now the Ukrainian military has consistently complained that they could have done more to defend against those attacks if they had been You are allowed to fire NATO-supplied weapons into Russia, Russian territory, as

strikes

, for example, as long as that ban is lifted because there is a report in the New York Times that may be imminent.

How important is it that it is good to be with you? Well, um, that. I think it falls into the category of a GameChanger because Ukraine has long stated since the beginning of the war that it needs to have the ability to attack legitimate military targets deep inside Russia, the kind of military bases you know where those of long range The missiles that are destroying Kadu and other Ukrainian cities day after day are launched from there, so there is also a kind of enthusiasm in Ukraine to eliminate larger targets like the Kirch straight bridge, over which many military supplies pass So far they have managed to poke holes in it, so to speak, but this is a big problem.

I think so far there has been nervousness in Western capitals about Ukraine's ability to strike deeper into Russia, because you know there are fears that this. Would it provoke more

retaliation

from Russia? Well, we can't have a war like this where the attacked party is like a David and Goliath fight, you know, where Ukraine has one arm tied behind its back, so it has a longer reach and is more powerful. The warheads will give Ukraine enormous capability and I think they will ultimately also act as a deterrent because the time has come when this cannot be sustained and Ukrainian cities, especially energy infrastructure, are being attacked day after day. the ability to eliminate them and it is the fear of escalation that has held back such a measure until now.

Russia has renewed its threat that it will retaliate, it says um, against British targets if Ukraine uses British weapons to attack Russian territory, that's after comments made by Foreign Secretary David Cameron suggesting it's legitimate, with How seriously should those threats be taken? Well, I think the big fears in Western capitals, including London, is that if things escalate, Putin will be tempted to follow through on his threat to use tactical nuclear weapons, um, but we just spoke to my Global Impact co-host. and I'm Melissa Rie the other day with Ukraine's top diplomat to the UN, Sergey Cuta, and he thinks he made this point very, very clearly, that Mr.

Putin should make it. reaching that kind of weapons will be annihilated in half a day, even if that doesn't happen, China will draw a red line and tell Mosow not to take that route, so I think we are now seeing Western leaders overtake it. that fear, uh, I think they have realized that Mr. Putin is quite a conman when he threatens to use nuclear weapons or attack Western targets, uh, he is not the strong man that he projects himself within Russia and, um, I. I think they are realizing that because just a few days ago a warship was sunk in Sebastapol, according to British intelligence, using precision

strikes

and there has been no serious escalation, but all we have seen are apparent weapons exercises tactical nuclear weapons in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.

Threats so empty Do you think that's proof that these threats are empty? Yes, absolutely, and you know, um, I've said this many times on the air, I think the Ukrainian officials and the Western leaders who are begging taxpayers to give them, the ability to fund the war in Ukraine have to make the argument a lot. stronger than look, this is a real deal that we are getting in terms of arming Ukraine, uh, for 3%, let's say, of the annual US military budget that Ukraine has been able to destroy about 50% of conventional Russian military capability and beyond that, they managed to destroy around 30% of the Black Sea Fleet and also forced the Russians to move ships from Sasto to safer waters, thus opening up crucial grain corridors. for the World Market, so I think if this message starts reaching Western audiences, I think leaders will have an easier time selling this aid to Ukraine and how much attention the battlefield and political events in the US get.

Right now, unfortunately, it's falling quite a bit off the radar, I mean, with the election coming up in November, a lot of coverage of Trump's daily charades in court, you know, the Israel-Gaza conflict. It's hard to maintain that kind of story. in the headlines, but you know, when you mean the top, we just had a Ukrainian journalism conference here in New York City and a lot of the analysts there said that Ukraine has to do a better job of humanizing the story , who are the Ukrainians beyond those fighting on the front lines and what do they represent and also personalizing the stories is also very important so I think if the Ukrainians and the media can do more of that type of coverage , the message will go further.

For Western audiences, there is currently harrowing footage filmed by a drone leaving the town of V Chans, about 45 miles from KH, which has been heavily bombed and soldiers sent in. Rel. Russian soldiers are being sent relentlessly to replace those who have died. It's being brought to the ground, bodies in the streets, how urgent that situation is to get that out, people need to see that and prevent them from suffering the same kind of Fate as Marup, for example, yeah, it's so heartbreaking to see this, ya you know and what we do. What we are saying is happening in places like Maropo and Koblast is what Ambassador CA taught us the other day is that the destruction is at a much worse level than, for example, what the Nazis did in their advance into Eastern Europe , where it burned.

Ground tactics and, um, right now, Kad, the second largest city in Ukraine, a center of learning and cultural policy, is being very, very affected, the only kind of piece of history that we can't really put together yet It's, um, a few months. In fact, in February, when President Zinski gave his two-year press conference, the Ukrainian media asked him what was happening to all those millions of dollars that were supposed to go toward building defenses to stop the advance of the Russians and he said: well. It is being deployed, it is being worked on, but as the BBC reported a few days ago, there were areas where Russian troops had just crossed the border between Ukraine and Russia without any kind of line of defense, so I have also read. comments from some Ukrainian military commanders that where did these millions of dollars go to build these defenses?

So what Ambassador Cza also told us is that if Kkil is to be adequately defended, they need a minimum of two Patriot missile batteries immediately. um, that's the other thing, um, that we can't really put together here is why this aid was already approved quite a while ago, why you're taking it, why it's taking so long to get into Ukraine's hands, the need in fact It is absolutely hopeless, how long do you think Russia will or will be able to sustain this type of attack? Well, um, there's an argument to be made, and again Ambassador Cuta made this very clear: This is actually the first time a Ukrainian official has said this.

He said that and again this is Ukraine's top diplomat to the United Nations. He said the Russian economy has shown a resilience that none of us had expected. The replacement, for example, of Shyu's Minister of Defense, who is known for siphoning off money very, very much. The defense system has been replaced by a technocratic economist who will likely make this type of military economy even stronger and more resilient. Sanctions have a limited lifespan. The best ones are probably a year and a half old. better and the Russians have been able to do a great job with the help of the former Soviet states Z bistan and Kazakhstan of the world as well as allies like India, China who are buying Russian oil and other energy products so it is a big concern . um and um, my take on this is that, um, when it gets to the point where the average Russian or especially the elites in Moscow and St.

Petersburg, if they really feel the impact of the sanctions, feel the isolation, they won't be able to travel. to Dubai and the Maldives and other places, that's when things get going and there will be a lot more

pressure

on Mr Putin to do something, maybe even end the war and, on the issue of money, there was a meeting in Italy is expected to debate this week among G7 finance ministers that the legality of handing over an additional €30 billion in Russian state assets seized through a loan to Ukraine to help rebuild or buy weapons once again is very, very slow progress in trying to release any of these, this money that has been seized, but could it make a significant difference and set an absolute precedent and we have to remind everyone that most of that money, the funds sovereigns seized from Russia, it's in Europe, it's not here? in the United States or in Canada, so it is very important that Belgium, especially the one that hosted the euro, paves the way for at least the interest of those billions of frozen dollars to go to Ukraine and I think that is how things must go. because if you come to talk to the average person here in the United States about the war in Ukraine, they have other concerns on their mind and they can't understand why their taxpayer money is going to fund the war in Ukraine and if Trump God forbid , it will be much more difficult to get to Ukraine, therefore I think it has more responsibility to move to the European continent, after all, it is much closer to the war, but again that is where many of these assets are frozen.

And look, you know that we all understand the concern of the Belgians and others that this could put your reputation in doubt, you know the euro clearly and you know the reliability of the euro, but, what is worse, having a little dent in his reputation or Mr. Putin being allowed to go further in Europe damaging economies, creating havoc around the world, the other thing I will quickly say is that you know that the Russians have developed a very, I would even say manual impressive, to cause chaos around. the world, um, destabilize democracies without firing a single shot, you know, these days you can do things through cyber attacks and other means, uh, undermining elections, that kind of thing, so as a civilized society, we don't We can stop paying attention to the ball, here we have to do everything.

Mr. Putin needs to be pushed back and just get back to what you're talking about earlier about this scorched earth, uh, kind of tactical politics, whatever you want to call it. You said before that, Putin, uh, you can. Don't underestimate his thirst for territorial expansion. How much of the country do you think he is willing to destroy in the process of this war? Well, that's a very good question, it gives me chills just thinking about it, look, I'm normally based in Odessa, a beautiful city that was built by many different nationalities and which, at the end of the day, is a crucial component of the global chain of food supply.

Now we see almost daily Russian missiles and drones approaching us and it has caused a lot of panic, a lot of anxiety, you know, and it makes me very sad to tell you this, but the people in Odessa who have been part of the construction of the modern Essa or its foundations are leaving or are thinking about leaving and I think the Russians know exactly what they are doing with these scare tactics, so it is not just scorched earth policies or approaches, but they are also causing fear and panic in the whole country. The Russians are also developing new tactics when firing drones and missiles. take a safe route around Ukraine so they ring alarm bells all over the country, even in the middle of the night, and that causes a lot of disruption, we just have to look at what the Russians have done in other theaters, for example in Syria, Chire and other places.

To know up towhere will Mr. Putin go, this is a regime that does not think twice before killing its own people for its own purposes and blaming others, so it should not be underestimated, but it is very very sad to go again. Let's go back to Kip to see what's going on in this beautiful city uh so much destruction and nothing nothing is off the table for the Russians uh churches uh museums places of worship uh civilian apartment buildings um it's very, very sad, yeah, and how? How far does that ambition go to include increasing the cultural identity of civilians in Ukraine?

I mean, earlier you were talking about how that conference unfolded that you've been to, you were saying that it's very important to show the Ukrainian people who they are and what they see. I guess it's like a countermeasure to what you see happening in Ukraine right now. Yeah, well, what we said. What I also said in that conference is that we are seeing history repeat itself in Ukraine, Russian aggression, the liquidation of the Ukrainian Catholic Church, the man-made forced famine under Stalin of 1932-33, what is happening now same. We had a session. for example, on Echo's side, uh, what Russia is doing to the environment in Ukraine, blowing up dams, um, mining, uh, agricultural fields on a scale never seen before, uh, chemical attacks, uh, bombs cluster, whatever it is, is causing massive destruction to the environment in Ukraine, which will take generations to recover from, so I think that's a key part of the Ukrainian strategy which is to bring to life these attacks and how they impact people , how they are destroying the culture, so are we.

I had a session about what happens behind the scenes in SE territory, for example in the Donbas, how the Russians have a very developed manual for changing curricula and replacing Ukrainian radio and television with their own channels, as well which is something. That's happening on a kind of industrial scale in Ukraine, but the West doesn't understand it very well. What do you think the West needs to understand about this? I think what they need to understand is the brutality, the extent to which Russia will go. Let me give you an example, if I may, I mean, I remember in the first months of the war we saw the attacks, starting in MAR oppo, for example, that theater where women and children were taking refuge, hundreds of people died in an attack Russian. there, but it was that particular attack on a maternity hospital in Mar Opal, which was apocalyptic in nature, it was probably a 500b bomb that landed on the grounds of that hospital and now you see that kind of iconic image of a pregnant mother being the They took him out on a stretcher, he ended up dying and laying his child.

I look at that, I look at that photo and I want to vomit, it's so horrible, but the reason it makes me so angry is because you would have thought that would have been a red line much earlier in the war. but we are seeing red line after red line after red line being crossed and this only for the benefit of not only Mr. Putin, but also other autocrats, where does it end and to what extent? I guess at the end of the day what people should understand is that the kind of apocalyptic destruction that we are seeing in Ukraine, if Mr.

Putin is left unchecked, will bring that level of destruction to other neighboring countries who will if it is a NATO country that will require American and other allied troops on the ground and will be much more costly when you're talking about red lines that are rehashed over and over again, as a person who has a deep interest in humanitarian work and by extension, I think that human rights, one of the most overlooked tragedies of war is the treatment of children forcibly transferred from Ukraine to Russia, why does the world seem to be desensitized to this and have there not been more protests? and indignation? about that, yeah, you know it's a very good question, look, I'm a former global spokesperson for Unicef.

I represented UNICEF in the West Bank, in Gaza, and you know there is a kind of hot conflict going on that has peaks and valleys if I want to call it that and I remember very well back then, uh, telling what CH told people what what the CH kids are going through in that particular crisis and, um, there are many reasons why he has this numbness if we want to call it that. has taken over, but I think one of the reasons is that those who are supposed to speak on behalf of children's rights have lost the microphone and I don't think they are making the argument strongly enough, but back to the topic.

The situation in Ukraine is a children's catastrophe no matter how you look at it, not only the forced deportation of thousands and thousands of children to Russia, where they were forcibly adopted, where they are forcibly introduced into this Russian patriotic curriculum, but also, um. What they're facing in Ukraine, the disruption of their education, the disruption of their game, you know, there was a video that we played at the conference that everyone saw and it was about a young man, maybe it showed a child. 10 years old, being interviewed by a TV reporter right after a Russian missile hit his playground and he said, you know, I never thought I'd see the day when this would happen in my own playground.

I saw the destruction of bcha. of churches there, but now it is happening to us and that look in his eyes, the tone of his voice is something that I have seen in other conflict areas, for example in the Gaza Strip, and it is because from night to night In the morning these innocent and beautiful young people are forced to adopt the behavior of an adult, you can also see the darkness in their eyes, but you also know that you realize that their youth has come to an abrupt end and what kind of future they are going to face.

And one more point, I mean, I spend a lot of time in Ukraine and I go to cemeteries on purpose to see, for example, how much they have expanded over the course of a few months and some of them have reached capacity if you go to Actually, Some, if they go to many villages in Ukraine, there are no men there anymore. If you travel through Europe or even here in the United States, you see Ukrainian mothers and their children looking for a safe haven, so I raise this point because imagine what Beneath the surface, this division of families is affecting the social fabric of Ukraine and , again, this is not something that will recover overnight once, hopefully, there is a peace agreement, so it's very, very sad to see, it's really interesting, because, there are these peace talks in Switzerland will be held next month and Zalinsky is urging countries like China to participate in those peace talks.

I mean, it seems strange that the concept of having peace talks exists right now, but it's more about what are you going to do after Reconstruction, what kind of things could be talked about there. Yeah, I think this is a meeting where we probably keep our expectations low but hope for the best. 160 countries were invited, I think there are more than 50 of us. Now that I have accepted, the Ukrainians and the host country are making a very deliberate effort to attract countries from the global South, but it doesn't look like Brazil is going to participate, and China probably it will not. the table I'm not sure about India uh South Africa we are talking about members of the Brick Coalition uh it is very, very important that they are there um Ukraine um somewhat late uh put emphasis now on working more on the global assault involving African countries , to the countries of Central and South America, because at the end of the day, many of these issues are voted on, for example, in the UN General Assembly and in subcommittees and things like that, so it is very important to have them as part of this . but it is going very badly, I mean, half of the countries that have this will attend our non-European countries, we are also going to be attentive to what level will be what will be the level of representation of the respective countries, there is talk that this will happen so soon after the G7 Summit in Italy that perhaps President Biden will deviate and attend the summit as well, so this will not be extraordinary if we are not at least at the level of foreign ministers or the leaders of the representative count, but whether this will end in a sudden peace for Ukraine.

I doubt that Russia is not going to be at the table, but it will signal to the Kremlin to Moscow that these countries that they have that are assisting and again, hopefully, at a very high level they are supporting Ukraine they are supporting a peace treaty um and then you know China um I said this the other day um Shu Jinping is one of the few LRA global leaders who has the ability to take Mr. Putin's phone call and tell him to end this now. China has not done that. China can't even call this what it is a war, they call it a crisis, the Ukraine crisis, so it is very, very important for China to look in the mirror and start calculating the cost to the global instability of the grain runners, that sort of thing and take a more principled stance.

Isn't it more urgent for Ukraine's allies to gauge what the victory should be? seems and defines a strategy to get there so that all his allies can support him, yes, absolutely, and you know that the Zalinsky government has a 10-point peace plan that includes the complete withdrawal of Russian troops and the return of the territory of pw. The Ukrainians have, and very understandably, a strong position and that is that all these territories have to be the ones that are occupied and must be returned to Ukraine, including Crimea. Many analysts can't. I don't see that happening um and I think the Russians their strategy is kind of a war of attrition.

They want to wear down Ukraine. They want to wear down the West so that they eventually have a stronger position at the negotiating table. I asked Ambassador kitza again um uh, do you know if you had the opportunity, like the Palestinians and the Israelis did in Oso, to come in, walk into a room together, put aside your differences and talk about a path to peace? He said, well, me. In fact, I'm doing that most days. I'm in the UN General Assembly or the Security Council and I see Russia right there, but his response I agree with him, he said well, we could talk, but at the end of the day.

It's the kind of attitude, the mentality of the Russian people that is not going to change, that they allow their government to have this kind of aggressive behavior, so there are many different aspects to achieving a path to peace, I think Turkey as well. his role is going to be very, very important, you know, as an intermediary, not only as a kind of key negotiator for peace between the Russians and the Ukrainians, but also as a guarantor of peace. I just wanted to ask you because, um Last time we spoke you said that you were very interested in documenting Russia's influence and its growing influence in Africa.

What have you seen since we last spoke? Yeah, right, well, gosh, you know it's on so many different levels, like, you know it was. in South Africa, as you know, and you listen to the radio there and many of the channels simply start from what Mr. Putin said or what Russia Today said, we find that that is happening, by the way, very strongly in South America, where the Russian propaganda media. The channels have a very, very big influence, so there is that, but there is also the Russian race, interestingly, in competition with China to get to Russia, sorry to get to African mineral resources, blood diamonds, that kind of thing because , these are. exactly the kind of thing that finances Putin's war machine, the only thing I haven't been able to understand since that failed attempt by the Wagner group to take over Moscow is the extent to which a billion dooll Machinery the Wagner group had to mine minerals in Russia to what extent has it been disrupted by the assassination of its leader, Mr.

Prosan um, but there are other entities connected to the Russian state, for example, through the gas dance that are keeping that money flowing, for which there is a lot of Russian influence there and of course they have many more resources diplomatically to manipulate,

pressure

and threaten the smaller and weaker African countries to vote a certain way, for example on bricks. In the environment or in the UN General Assembly, there is such a huge influence there and, unfortunately, again. Ukraine is a bit behind in terms of presenting itself more strongly on the continent, and when you talk about developing friendships with potential allies there, you know it.

Ukraine is a little late to expose how much power, how much freedom the media now have in Ukraine H and how evolved they are, yes, very good question, well, look, we entered this war with a very poor situation. For the Ukrainian media, many of the main television channels were owned by oligarchs and many of the media channels did not have stable sources of income, then the war came, martial law was declared and Administration Z somewhat coralized the main. channels in what is called a 247 Tele Marathon that has served its purpose in terms of disseminating information, but the ratings have really fallen and none of these channels are generating income.

The war has been absolutely as destructive in the media sector in Ukraine as we talked about. This is repeated a lot at our conference of Ukrainian journalists. For example, there is a huge human resources problem. Many journalists have been killed, more than a hundred, many have been recruited or on the front line, many have gone there as volunteers and many have abandonedUkraine in search of a safer haven. the number of newsrooms that have closed across the country is now in the hundreds and there has also been massive destruction of physical infrastructure, so our argument or sorry, our kind of effort right now is to help boost the news sector.

Ukrainian means to raise, help them raise. income to set standards and also to help them deal with their human resources issues, so we are considering a number of things, for example, creating alliances between Ukrainian journalism schools and schools here in the United States, for example, like Colombia, but we are also arguing that there will be another Ukraine reconstruction conference next month in Munich and I am surprised that at none of these conferences the Ukrainian media sector has mentioned the topic, but our argument is that in order for all these thousands For millions of dollars to come to Ukraine for reconstruction, we first need a very viable independent government.

Media sector because this is how corruption will be kept at bay and by the way last time I checked business owners need reliable information to make sound investments in a given country so we believe this is something that can be done quite simple and quick way, while a peace agreement is being forged. It's very, very important that that happens because it's also very important. I guess the war control messages and information about how the war is going in Ukraine, who has the advantage, who has. "The advantage and the perception of that is going to greatly influence long-term support for Ukraine and maybe have an influence and we know that Putin is playing this to make it look good if we hold out long enough." Let's just give up, I mean that whole message is absolutely crucial, isn't it?

And, you know, public opinion polls in Ukraine have indicated that, actually, most people in Ukraine would like the Zinsky administration to be more direct, no. Sweeten everything as much as they did so they can understand better, you know? I mean, I'll give you an example from the two-year war anniversary press conference. Mr. Zalinski put the number of Ukrainian military dead, I think it's around 31,000 a year. Many people believe that number is much higher. I think in terms of messaging, Ukrainians have to do a better job. Modify your messages to say that this is really what is happening.

This is the level of destruction. Journalists have been doing it for a long time. he complained that his access to the front line is quite restricted. The sanctions for Ukrainian media for overstepping martial law and information regulations are very, very severe, so a kind of self-censorship attitude is imposed, especially with Ukrainian media, but yeah, you know, this is reality. of the world we live in is that, unfortunately, people really have to see disruption up close and very vividly to make an impact and I hope that message gets through and finally, Michael, you've described yourself as an honorable citizen. about a place where you have made your home, what life is like there now, how optimistic your fellow citizens are about this and the future of Ukraine, yes, you know, every time I come back to aesa, I can't wait to come back.

I'm just, you know, amazed Amed. for the level of civility and kindness shown towards people like me even during these times of war. I told them about how these help sirens keep people awake at night, but they have taken it into account and realized that this is part of war. We have to move forward, we have to keep our businesses alive, a lot of people are hoping that, you know, tourism will eventually start coming back to that region, it's very, very important, so people are very resilient, but having said that, there is very , very strong people that I referred to earlier in the interview who have to take a break and they leave and I fear that this will have a kind of cumulative effect on the economy, you know, many Ukrainians are when they wake up. in the middle of the night and they hear these Miss Russian missiles firing and drones over their heads they go where is where is the Western support where are those Patriot missile systems that they are meant to defend and everyone in Odessa realizes that they are living in a port city, this port city, as I said, is a crucial component of the global food supply chain and why hasn't the West even given a fraction of the defense aid that it has given to the Red Sea to protect? those shipping routes, why aren't you doing the same with these crucial grain corridors?

Having said that, there is good news to share with you. I mean, the last time I was in the port, not long ago, there were a lot of boats. There are lines to transport grain, but for the first time since the beginning of the war containers are also starting to move and of course this is really very important because Ukraine's roads and railway systems will be overwhelmed by container traffic if they can move a large amount of that. Not only will the economy of Ukraine improve, trade will have a positive impact on world markets, but it will also bring much more employment to Odessa when you live there, as long as you realize how far the tentacles reach through the city from that port. so is the soul of adessa in many ways, so, that's something that's really great to see, it's that rebirth of that Port Michael, really good to catch up with you, thank you so much for your time, it's a pleasure, thank you for having me, you've been watching Frontline during Times Radio with me, K Chabo, my thanks to our producers today Lou Syes and Morgan Berdick and you for watching, if you want to support us you can subscribe now or you can listen to Times Radio. for the latest news and in-depth analysis or visit times.co.uk for now, though thanks for watching, bye.