'Russia is going out of business' as 'staggering losses' cause manpower shortages | Diane Francis

I think you know we're seeing the incredible image of Russia shrinking here, you know, between that launch conference that it holds every year and the poor attendance from nations in the global South, including India and others, and the fact that you know who is making a big deal about visiting a pariah in North Korea, he indicates and the fact that he will be arrested, he couldn't go to the BRICS conference, he couldn't go to the G20 be

cause

he faces arrest as a criminal of war. I mean I hope we are seeing the Incredible Putin and his Empire shrinking and that seems obvious and he makes a big fanfare with a lot of pomp and circumstance and a lot of propaganda and rhetoric, but the fact is that country is about to go out of

business

hello and welcome to the front line of radio with me K jao and this time we are catching up with Diane Francis, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, she is managing editor of the National Post newspaper and has a best-selling substack with regular updates on geopolitics , including the war in Ukraine and Putin's Russia.

Diane, welcome back. I'm glad to see you again. I'm glad to see you. Yeah, we're

going

to talk a little bit about your latest article in your substack in a moment, but first I wanted to. To talk about President Putin's first trip to North Korea in more than two decades, what are the takeaways from his meeting with Kim Jong-un? Well, I think this is a guy who is becoming more and more dependent on getting munitions and missiles from a country and it's M. to pay a courtesy call just to make sure that the deal continues and probably expands and possibly also to recruit North Korean workers to work in the factories in Russia where they have a labor shortage due to the war and lastly, I think it's also to rattle everyone's cage a little be

cause

North Korea is a little scary, and it actually makes the entire Asian region nervous, so the fact that he gives Kim a laying on of hands and legitimacy makes him even scarier and is kind of a rebuke to China, Japan, South Korea.

South and the United States, so they signed this agreement that provides mutual assistance in case of aggression against one of the parties. What does that mean in practice? I mean, is it equivalent? far beyond a pact for paranoids Paras or we should take it much more seriously, you know, look, it's a NATO agreement, I mean, NATO has its agreement, uh, you know, an attack on one is an attack to everyone with the exception now. Mr. Orbon's apparently doesn't have to participate in helping attack people who have been attacked by an enemy, but other than that, it's kind of standard bilateral security, and you know it's interesting. that he did it, he didn't do it right after he went to China, he did it separately because apparently the Chinese said we don't want to be put on the same level, do what you want but we don't want to.

It was added that we are equally important, so you know, I think it's a downgrade for Putin, uh, and you know, this is a scourge, this country, North Korea starves its people, it's a horrible, difficult place and worthy of an ally, he is too. the real concern is how much support Putin might offer or feel he has to offer to North Korea in terms of missiles and nuclear weapons, which is progressively supporting that program in exchange for much-needed munitions, as you mentioned before. Oh yeah, he's

going

to share technology with them. but you must also remember that there are limitations in North Korea in the number of people who can adapt and develop and improve any technological information that is given to them.

I mean how have they been able to develop a nuclear weapon. having missiles that launch you a certain distance is pretty shocking given the fact that you know that place P is a ravine where people are starving and I don't know how you do that kind of thing except you know, deny your citizenship and spend all your money on these military toys. How worried should South Korea be about this? That was another message. You know, South Korea has very indirectly become one of the largest suppliers of ammunition to NATO. The United States and Ukraine are among the Western Alliance, if I can include them in the Western Alliance, which I can, along with Japan, they are one of the largest artillery and ammunition manufacturers in the world and an enormously powerful and wealthy country that really is one that embarrasses or should embarrass North Korea and then you know there's an intense rivalry there, they don't have nuclear weapons but they have American troops on the ground and I think, frankly, they will end up with nuclear weapons and I think Japan will too, I mean, South Korea has described all this as absurd and has complained about the development of this Alliance.

It is also reported that you are considering or even threatening to withdraw the ammunition supply that you mentioned earlier, which could affect Ukraine. could affect Ukraine. South Korea is really very involved in the alliance to contain China and Russia as well. Russia is not far away, so I think what you have is a pygmy. Kingdom K, which is what North Korea is called, which South Korea would gladly take over and develop, but disagrees with, just to give you an idea of ​​the difference. I mean, it's almost ridiculous, the GDP of all of North Korea is just one. a quarter of the revenue that Samsung Korea's giant electric ICS firm makes each year, you know, is inconsequential, except that it has developed a nuclear bomb that gives it status.

Let's now move on to your last piece in your substack series and it's looking at something that wasn't really reported in the Western media: a Ukrainian special forces attack on Russian mercenaries on the Goolan Heights in southwestern Syria, what happened and why What were they attacked, they were attacked because the Ukrainians have been monitoring the Russians wherever they are and have them around. Around the world, the Vagner mercenaries, as well as the Russian Special Forces, had noticed that an increasing number, and this dates back a while ago, an increasing number of recruits were being trained, recruits from the Middle East, Africa, wherever they were being trained in Syria by Russians.

Russian and Russian mercenaries. and they gave them Russian passports and they sent them to Ukraine to fight the Ukrainians in the war and so they were worried about this and they decided to dismantle the training operations and they and they practically did it and this was This was a very important and necessary thing, but What opened my eyes and what it should do to the rest of the world is that Russia is using Syria, which is a failed state, I mean, it was absolutely ruined in the Civil War that started in 2011 but occupies much of the country.

It has military bases there we don't know how many thousands of soldiers and they are exporting all kinds of terrorism and problems and the indication was that the Ukrainians had seen the Ukrainians. that mercenaries in Syria were training in ooc before October 7 to attack Israel they told Israel that Israel did not heed the warning and the rest is history so they were doing this to attack a training source and terrorism coming out of Syria. by Russia and they just wanted to intercept and it seems that this attack by the Ukrainian Special Forces was carried out without any complaints from Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president.

I don't know, I don't read his press. Don't know. I even think it has press, uh, look, it's a failed state essentially in exchange for getting help from Moscow to fight the democratic forces in Syria in their Civil War. He seeded Russia, I probably don't know a third or half of the land, it's just a no. The land of man that Russia occupies and uses as a base of operations is also entering into other aspects. Now it is moving weapons to Libya. This is their next attempt to approach and encircle Europe frankly and they hope to establish a military base. a naval base in Libya where there is a dictator who is out of control and, you know, that has a lot of people and it should worry a lot of people in NATO because they could easily attack Europe from Libya, that is their next step.

So how important is Syria right now as a base from which Russia can project regional power and influence? I think it's enormously important. I think Ukraine is the first to recognize this and do something about it. I think others, Western Israel, surely should. get involved in the attack, of course, if Israel attacks Syria, then there will be a bigger and broader war in the Middle East, however, they are too, the Vagner mercenaries are trained there and are now positioned in many countries, mainly in French Africa. the hell where they are fueling insurrections and civil wars and it is like a node in a metastasis and that is what they are using it for and they are exporting problems, including drugs, they are exporting drugs from there and when you mention um Russia Russian forces or Russian mercenaries entering Libya and the threat this represents to NATO and European security.

Can you describe well how you see that threat? The isw The uh um Institute for War The Institute for War Studies outside Washington and others have noted the fact that, as you know, Europe, NATO cannot tolerate having on its southern flank a naval base with potentially nuclear submarines that They could launch nuclear missiles against the southern flank of Florida. I have warned that it is a place that is facilitating the militarization of migration to Europe from African countries, boats full of people are leaving Libya. The Libyan dictator is apparently allowing this or benefiting from it and this is destabilizing Europe.

It's another weapon and it's something. that Russia has used it for quite some time, so it really escalates and extends, let's say, the war path. Beyond Ukraine, let's now talk a little about China, which was heavily criticized after the G7 Summit, where a statement asked Beijing to stop supplying weapons. technology to Moscow and oppose China's militarization in the Pacific Do you think China has any interest in ending the war in Ukraine? Yes and no. I don't think China, apart from getting some trade benefits, has some trade benefits and the biggest trade benefits. China. It's not that they're selling weapons, they're not selling weapons directly, but what they're getting is cheap oil, huge amounts of cheap oil from Russia, which has been sanctioned by other countries and banned in other countries, so that's helpful, and then with the money. that with them, to help pay for the oil they buy in Russia, they are selling refrigerators, toys, cars and all kinds of things from their manufacturing base, so it is very profitable and the commercial benefits are very far from the benefits that Russia gets by selling them oil, but you know, the oil sales to Russia and China and India are mostly financing Putin's war because he can't sell that stuff to Europe anymore, so you know this is the uh.

This is the tradeoff that China is playing very carefully and also, I really think China is playing a waiting game because Russia is getting weaker with this war. It is economically suicidal. They are taking advantage, but they are not going to go too far. So far they are still having friendly talks with Europe and the United States because that is where their clients are, so I think China is playing a waiting game, hoping that Russia loses the war and Andor is defeated and then it is very They may be able to take back Manchuria, which is something that they have long talked about being stolen from China by an are 200 years ago and they want M manua back, which includes Vlad VTO, by the way, and we talked about that, right?

Is that like Diane the last time we spoke? How would you judge? Uh current relations between China and Russia because they didn't send us and you wrote about this also an important delegation to the St. Petersburg International Forum in Davos from Russia which actually coincided with the D-Day commemorations and Putin was saying that Russia was encouraging an alternative uh to the American-dominated global financial order, but what did attendees say about their influence and that alternative? Well, I think you know we're seeing the incredible shrinking Russian image here, you know, between that showcase conference that it holds every year and the poor attendance from the nations of the global South, including India and others, and the fact that that you know he's making a big deal about visiting an outcast in North Korea, Ates points out, and the fact that he's going to be arrested, he couldn't go.

He could not go to the BRICS conference because he faces arrest as a war criminal. I mean, I hope we're seeing the incredible contraction of Putin and his empire and that seems to be obvious and makes a lot of fanfare in a lot of pomp and circumstance and a lot of propaganda and rhetoric, but the fact is that that country is going to go bankrupt because, you know, The Ice CC is looking for him, but he can travel to Vietnam and that is one of the complaints. I think maybe I'm not sure if he makes these types of trips at the moment that normalizes it as a leader or that's what is trying to do at least I think exactly that I think that's what I'm a leader.

I have state dinners organized for me, there are circumstances that arise. I can check your troops. I'm a big deal, that's what it is and he has to keep it up for the Summit.G7 agreed to release $50 billion of profits on frozen Russian assets through a loan to Ukraine and the EU has now agreed to a 14th package of sanctions against Russia to further deny it access to key technologies, strip it of further revenue energy, addressing his Shadow Fleet and Shadow Banking Network how much is that going to hurt Putin and it's in a circle I think that hurts them uh the news is getting tougher there is no doubt diplomatically economically and militarily the weapons are flowing uh the ukrainians are doing better the

losses

are apparently reeling in

russia

not that they give a damn but the point is the titans news i think the assets are very important it's a very important first step and that of course He's going to shake up his inner circle because he was threatened, but they didn't do it.

I don't think they would and in some ways they have, but without seizing the ass, they haven't seized the assets and they haven't done it because they don't want to start, you know, creating a precedent where The world doesn't like assets. Americans and seize American assets inside their country, so that was the reason, but this is a coup and I would like to see the next coup. I would really like to see their oligarchy go away after I would like to see them harassed and denied visas and stripped of citizenships and, you know, generally repelled around the world, have their property confiscated, have to fight for them in the courts, I think that would mean they would have no power, but I think that might help shake up the regime in Russia a little bit.

There is also an argument that Russia could be pressured to end the war in Ukraine by putting immediate financial pressure on it, not just in the ways we just mentioned. but imposing it to pay damages to Ukraine, how would that work? I guess they would have to do it. I don't know the mechanism. I don't know who would do the evaluations and collections. I guess through the United Nations, which they did. This before, in the Kuwait, Iraq situation, the United Nations took control and demanded reparations from Iraq for invading Kuwait and got them 2 billion. It took them time, they established committees.

There is a process. Everything is underway. It has to be done through the United Nations. C, the problem is that the United Nations Security Council oversaw the collection of reparations and you know, Pudo enjoys a veto, that's another thing that needs to be addressed. Russia needs to be expelled from the United Nations permanently, no questions asked, let's go. Go back to the same International Forum cake again because Putin also said that his forces were prevailing on the battlefield in Ukraine. How strong do you think the determination of NATO allies is now to ensure that they do not prevail and that they support Ukraine to achieve a solution? catastrophic defeat for Russia I think they're scared I think they understand it I think Germany even understands it eh, you know, excuse me Germany Germany is a psychiatric disaster, frankly, I mean, they don't really want it, the word war terrifies them I mean, it's PTSD because the war completely destroyed their country and their people and everything they stood for and almost ruined the world, so they really avoid it to the best extent they can, but now they're starting to draw out their strength as well.

It certainly has financial weight and also in terms of weapons supplies and Macron has led this and you know he has some problems as well, but that's a different story. The Europeans are very, very strong and, you know, led by the Baltic countries, Poland, the Netherlands, which it seems to be. I'm going to provide the next head of NATO, Mark Ruta, and you know they are very strong and very supportive, so I think there is very little chance that the Europeans Wayne, you mentioned Mark Rutter, the Dutch prime minister, the Dutch outgoing. prime minister um, he will be the next secretary general of NATO with the withdrawal of the only other candidate in the ring, the Romanian presidential class oanes um, he will take office at a crucial moment, just over a month before the presidential elections of USA. news I guess it's very good news because Ruta has established itself on the right side of this war, the Netherlands has provided, I mean, they just opened their arsenals and delivered all of their F-16s.

They have done enormous diplomatic and financial work to support the cause of fighting Russia, so he will be an appropriate cheerleader to continue that and I think he will also be a forceful advocate within the United States, so he does not write prolifically. . about geopolitics, I wonder from your point of view right now what worries you most what worries you most Putin I think Putin is a scourge I think Putin is The new Hitler I think he is Putin lives, breathes and he sleeps dreaming of ways to light fires all over the world to bother and kill people, and you know you really have to get him out of his job somehow because I think he's a one and I think there's no other behind the scenes or so I hope, and I think that Putin is the biggest challenge and then of course there are other challenges, like, you know, climate and economic reform and poverty, but right now this is solved or the world has more and more problems Diane Francis great to talk to you as always thank you very much for your time you are welcome you have been watching Frontline many times radio with me Kate shabo my Thanks to our producers today, Lis SES and Morgan, verdict and to you for watching, if you want to support us you can subscribe now or you can listen to Times Radio for the latest news and in-depth analysis or visit Times.co. .uk for now, though thanks for watching, bye.