War with China: Are we closer than we think? | Under Investigation

A war with China seems un

think

able, but according to many experts the countdown may be on. China's President Xi Jinping is leaning toward the West like never before, and a major new military alliance between the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom to counter China was announced last week. aggression in the pacific the first major initiative of the orcas will be to deliver a fleet of nuclear powered submarines to australia the united states and its allies are preparing for a battle that we did not believe was possible the idea that

china

would never attack or even invade well I wouldn't count on Xi Jinping already being on a collision course with his own people, from the recent ban on boy bands to imposing propaganda lessons in primary schools.

Xi Jinping is taking control and is prepared to fight for it even beyond his homeland if this unimaginable conflict were to happen, it would begin with an invasion of Taiwan, a small nation off its coast that China has long believed, are These, once they make the decision to do this, will rush like a madman with an ax, control of Taiwan would be given to China. a huge new military reach over the Pacific that would put Australia in the line of fire quite quickly, but is Australia putting itself in the line of fire by talking too harshly to China?

It is very dangerous to incriminate China it is worse than Darth Vader tonight we investigate simply How close we really are to war. The question of whether or not to go to war may well end up being decided for us. So is this resistance useless? We should not, to borrow a phrase from Game of Thrones, kneel before Beijing. Good night. m liz hayes and this is under

investigation

joining me tonight five experts who each bring a lifetime of experience to their views on the war with

china

we have to ask ourselves the question: do you want your children or the children of They live in an authoritarian world where democracy is on the ash heap of history and states no longer have freedom of speech, freedom of thought, or democracy worth defending.

China has been preparing for war for at least three decades. their entire military modernization has been largely directed at having a war over Taiwan i

think

war with China should be unthinkable and should remain unthinkable because when we talk about war with China we are talking about the potential for a level of casualties and destruction that This country has certainly never experienced it and it would be devastating for people all over Asia. I think it's very dangerous to frame China as completely evil, only benevolent. Yes, there is a bad China where China does things that we consider unacceptable, but I think it is very important for Australia to accept that there is also a good China.

There are things that China does and can do that is for the benefit of the world clinton fernandez you would say it is time for ordinary Australians to be aware of this absolutely I think it is very important that this debate occurs I am glad that it is war going on here is an extremely serious situation that will shape the destiny of the world for the next 75 years. There is no doubt that Australia has been involved in a war of words with China over human rights and, more recently, the origins of Covered 19. Australia remains firmly of the view that it understands the cause. of this pandemic has nothing to do with politics, it is essential to prevent the next one and China has responded by hitting us with punitive trade sanctions.

Tensions and rhetoric are rising earlier this year, with a senior Australian security official warning of war drums coming from China. He echoed Defense Minister Peter Dutton. I don't think it should be discarded. I think China has been very clear about that objective. So are we unnecessarily a superpower and an important trading partner? Are we talking ourselves up against a wall or are we bravely standing up to aggressive China Australia has shown the world how to deal with the People's Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party in particular Colonel Grant Newsham is a China specialist and former chief of intelligence for US Marine Forces in the Pacific.

The biggest complaint about Australians is that there aren't 10 times as many of them, they were the first to stand up and say no, we're not going to put up with Australia's future. You will have to fight for it if you want to keep it and the idea that China would never attack, or even invade, well, I wouldn't count on that, but Australia is becoming a very expensive enemy. our war of words with china is already costing us billions in exports every year and at a time when australia is increasing its defense budget to be better prepared for any conflict with china, i just think it's wildly ironic that we decide to lead the world and being tough on China, where we are so economically vulnerable, the military improvements that we are talking about, the additional spending on our defense forces we can afford these things because of our really profitable trade with China, that's right, Michael, the decision of spending money on defense is based on threat perception and that threat perception is focused exclusively on a rising China, we no longer have 10 strategic years.

It is time to warn of a major attack against this country the ball is in their court they need to realize that they are responsible for the crisis we find ourselves in now, not us the historian dr. David Brophy believes the smartest strategy would be to engage with China because he thinks a war-weary America may not have the stomach for more conflict, even if it's in our backyard. The US position is declining and I think it's really unthinkable to a lot of people in Canberra, particularly in the defense sector, that Australia could be left alone without the US in the neighborhood being in a position to help if Australia gets into trouble, but There is no military threat from China towards Australia.

I mean, I mean look very clearly at China's stated objectives, they claim all of southern China. sea, if China manages to fundamentally change the way the region operates, China spends more on its military than all of Asia combined, you are absolutely right, this is about Chinese domination of the Indo-Pacific region and I don't think any Australian citizen voluntarily accepts that. kind of relationship with China we should not, to borrow a phrase from Game of Thrones, kneel before Beijing, but experts warn that if words ever turn to war, Australians will pay a terrible price. We are dealing with the potential for a conflict that could be a lot. more shocking to ordinary Australians than anything we have seen in recent decades a former Australian soldier and diplomat david kilcullen now leads the future operations research group analyzing how the next wars are likely to unfold he fears australia already Whether China's punching bag is Xi Jinping's way of sending his message to the US, we are seeing not only an escalation of American and Chinese rhetoric towards each other, but Australia is increasingly seen as an ally of the US. .US that the Chinese feel they can put pressure on to try to send a message to others.

We see China bullying Australia into believing that at least trouble is coming. The grand narrative of the Chinese Communist Party is certainly that, one, China is indestructible, two, its goals are fixed, and, three, it will pay any cost to achieve those goals effectively. because it is useless to resist and it is better to stay on the sidelines and deal with China as China wants to be treated. I think it's very dangerous to frame China as completely evil, it's just benevolent to try to frame China. like worse than Darth Vader yes, I agree with all that, but at what point do you decide that you can't continue to take a step back?

No, we shouldn't take a step back, so resistance is useless. No, it's not useless. I just think they are talking about war. among the general Australian public it makes people afraid, it makes people anxious and unfortunately I think it makes the prospect of more war more likely. I think we can show as much nuance as possible and be as accommodating as possible and not mention the word war once and they will continue to occupy the South China Sea and continue to coerce their neighbors. After all, it is China that launches nuclear ballistic missiles across Tiananmen Square in National Day parades and tanks and displays its military power and threatens to bash the heads of Westerners in its speeches. against a great wall of steel the Chinese people will never allow foreign forces to intimidate us.

Anyone who dares to try will be beaten bloodily on the head against a large steel wall. This is some incredibly nationalistic war talk that the Chinese are using, but this war of words is becoming more and more confrontational. If there is going to be a war with China, everyone agrees that the trigger will be Taiwan, the tiny nation. island located off its coast, President Xi Jinping has already declared that he wants to join communist China. Xi Jinping does not have the luxury of walking politically. return from its commitment to take Taiwan, that would be the end of its power base, the end of its control, the Chinese Communist Party claims that Taiwan is historically part of China, which strictly speaking is not true, the island has a population indigenous that dates back thousands of years.

A flourishing democracy in Taiwan would be an immense strategic and economic prize since last year our radar stations detected incursions by almost 2,000 Chinese military aircraft on more than 400 military vessels would not only give China a military footprint in the Pacific Ocean, but which would also give China a military footprint in the Pacific Ocean. giving China fabulous wealth Taiwan has the world's sixth-largest foreign exchange reserves and the island state supplies most of the world's semiconductor computer chips, critical to most modern manufacturing products, from washing machines to military weaponry. latest generation, and it is there outside the clutches of China.

With US backing, why does China need Taiwan so much? Taiwan is the true unsinkable aircraft carrier from which China can project military power deep in the central Pacific. Taiwan shows the world that you can have prosperity and democracy. Taiwan is definitely a prize. I mean, first of all. It is a challenge, an ideological challenge to China's one-party state system, but there is also a deeply emotional feeling that motivates China's leadership since its creation in 1949, after the Chinese civil war, Taiwan has never officially declared its independence from China, doing it according to our experts would be an instant trigger for war if taiwan says it wants to be independent what happens china will invade simcoe sir those who warn about china's intentions for taiwan point to the example of hong kong, which is now almost taken over by the chinese communist party after crushing pro-democracy demonstrations there and there is no one who wants to protect Taiwan's independence more than its former vice president, madam annette liu, who spent years in prison fighting to establish democracy on the island, as well which i think is very immoral if anyone has interest in launching any kind of war, at least a critical land movement, madame lou proposes establishing what she calls a democratic community comprising taiwan, south korea and japan to balance the power of china, we can make a golden trine vehicle in the region and we also welcome australia from south america canada from the other side of the pacific we order a peace-loving democracy malcolm davis believes that australia should advocate a similar democracy in our region, particularly if china decides to invade taiwan if we do not act in the face of a chinese aggressive move against taiwan, then morally and ethically we have fallen from our pedestal, we have done the wrong thing.

I think we need to think about the implications for the lives of 24 million Taiwanese. Just look at Xinjiang province where there are over a million weak people behind essentially barbed wire just for the sake of being weaker, you don't want the situation to develop in Taiwan where millions of Taiwanese are essentially in concentration camps . I believe that, as the world has seen since the raids in the invasion of Afghanistan, it is one thing to maintain control and manage a The restless people of Taiwan who have experienced democracy and are passionate about democracy will be quite another if they want to go to the war for Taiwan or not.

China is certainly ready for it and ready to take on the United States and anyone who enters the fight. I've been watching China and the Chinese military for 40 years and what you've really seen in the last 20 years is probably the fastest military buildup in the world, not just since World War II, but perhaps in human history. According to Colonel Grant Newsham,former chief of intelligence for US Marine Forces in the Pacific. The scale of China's military buildup centered on Taiwan is unparalleled and alarming. So, in his opinion, what are they doing? Are they preparing for a fight or is this a deterrent?

First I have to ask who I would dissuade. Have you ever heard someone say that they wanted to attack China? It's actually for an offensive purpose and the first thing they want to do is get the Americans out of Asia and the ultimate goal is global domination here. here I really don't agree, I really don't agree with this idea of ​​global domination, no one matches the United States when it comes to aircraft carriers and power projection. What China has the ability to do with this buildup is take Taiwan and prevent the United States from interfering with it when it does that is not global domination at all Taiwan has always had the support of the United States, but after a humiliating exit of Afghanistan, the United States may have lost its taste for wool in case China invades Taiwan, the big question that will determine the future. of the region and probably the world is whether the United States will come to the defense of Taiwan.

Professor David Brophy believes that is no longer entirely certain. We have tended to assume in this discussion that if there was a Chinese movement, the United States would be there, but the people of Taiwan. The question being asked is whether in reality, in that case, would the United States be willing to risk a confrontation with China that could lead to attacks against the United States in mainland China for the sake of Taiwan? If the United States does nothing, it would be the beginning of the end of the US-led alliance in the system and if you spend any time in Washington, you will realize that that is not acceptable to Americans.

If you look at the last 100 years of history, the United States sacrifices blood and treasure to a great extent to achieve strategic objectives, so I would say almost. Certainly, the United States will come to Taiwan's defense. John Lee is right, if the US does not react it will lose all strategic credibility in the region and the overall risk of the US losing strategic credibility in the region would be horrendous for Australia. on our own, as well as increasingly aggressive international measures, such as the expansion of China's huge navy into the Pacific, President Xi Jinping has been harshly repressing his own people to align them with the Communist Party, thinking that she calls it rectification and that he has banned everything from boy bands. and reality television shows to foreign games and computer applications China's private schools have been decimated by new regulations and lessons on what is called Xi Jinping Thought are now mandatory in primary schools it is as if it were a population that was preparing for trouble, so if it came to war, how would it really play out? we have to be able to sink the pla navy, the largest navy in the world today, we have to put it underwater to davy jones's locker, we have to sink that fleet, former director of intelligence and information operations for the us fleet of the pacific, captain james e fennell has simulated an invasion of taiwan and says that china would use a tactic learned from the us military operation desert storm during the first gulf war, the strategy called shock and awe, we know from chinese writings that have studied desert storm the Chinese have thousands and thousands of ballistic missiles deployed along the Chinese east coast and those rockets and those ballistic missiles would target Taiwan's key nodes, its military centers, its ports, its airfields, known locations of the garrisons of the Taiwanese army forces, I think there is no I have a doubt that China, once they make the decision to do this, they will do it with full force, like a madman with an axe.

The skies over Baghdad lit up in the first Gulf War. The United States bombed Iraq for 42 days and 42 consecutive nights to achieve its objectives, there is nothing to stop China from doing it and there is very little the United States can do to affect it except at very, very high cost. Both sides know how this will play out. The only question. is who has more Will Malcolm in terms of firepower, although China has very impressive weaponry. Yes, they are developing this very long-range strike capability that is designed to be able to attack the United States and its allies in one of the systems that they have.

What is being developed is the DF-26 which is an intermediate range ballistic missile that can attack US aircraft carriers as far away as Guam, if they can sink aircraft carriers that is a huge loss of life. Each aircraft carrier has around 5,000 people on board, so the potential for the Chinese to impose a huge cost on the United States and its allies, including Australia, is very real. Yes Yes. China's President Xi Jinping ensures that his country's military might is there for his people and the world to see and increases his war posture off the disputed coasts. Chinese territory has built artificial islands loaded with defensive material Dr. david brophy argues that china is simply defending its coast just as we do in australia, we have to remember that all of this is taking place along china's coast to talk about deterring china, what that effectively means is that we want to maintain a favorable military balance to its doorstep that can dominate in a conflict situation anything that takes place off its coasts.

Now imagine if a country on the other side of the world said that to Australia. that we want to prevent you from being able to militarily control the territory off your coast, I think we in Australia would consider that a hostile stance and Dr Brophy warns that an all-out war between the world's superpowers could well involve nuclear weapons. I don't think there's any way that we can say for sure that this can be limited to a small war, which I think some people imagine there may be some kind of small agreement that we could have in the Taiwan Strait.

I think that's a possibility. but another and another is total nuclear barbarism and the United States maintains the option of first use of nuclear strike, which suggests to me that it wants to position itself in such a way to tell China that we are willing to fight a nuclear war with you. We are willing to throw nuclear weapons at him when it comes to something so important and potentially devastating to the world. It doesn't take anything off the table. In fact, Jim Fennell believes that the United States needs to maintain its credible threat of using tactical nuclear weapons in a first strike.

I want xixia ping and the next person and the next person to always wonder, hey, is there a nuclear missile landing on my head now? same? I want you to think that doesn't mean I want to do it, but I want to do it. Being able to rationally let them know that we have that ability and if they push us too hard, you think you're the angry guy with the ax and you haven't seen anything yet. This is when you come out and say it's crazy. I find this whole discussion completely depressing. I think everyone at this table would agree that we do not want war because if it is a war between these superpowers, no one knows where the nuclear threshold will be, no one knows what the point is at which one side or the other others will begin to use nuclear weapons.

It is so serious that I think we should all focus here in Australia on reducing tensions and how we do everything we can to prevent armed conflict and make sure that the United States and China We can find some way to live together, but Dr Brophy believes that since China views us as the United States' closest ally, there is even the possibility of Australia becoming a nuclear target. I hate to speculate on this situation because it is so horrible to think about, but If China and the United States get into a conflict situation, China wants to take another step up the ladder without necessarily attacking the mainland United States, then a country like Australia becomes in an option.

You test the waters, you know, you send a message that they are serious, but without taking the risk of attacking the United States directly because of the possibility that that would lead to massive nuclear retaliation. Do you see that it is not? I mean, I think it's pretty clear to the Chinese that if the Chinese attack Australian territory with weapons of mass destruction, that will be treated like an attack on the United States would retaliate with overwhelming force. Australia's advanced planners, including Professor Kilcullen, who heads the future operations research group, are also not ruling out a nuclear attack from China if it becomes kinetic, as we call it, you know, if we get to the battlefield.

Firing between the United States and China and reaches that tactical nuclear threshold. I think it's actually quite likely that Australia will receive a nuclear attack fairly early in that conflict. Now you know, I think strategists on both sides don't want this to go nuclear, but. if he does, that would put Australia in the line of fire quite quickly. The Chinese know that if they use nuclear weapons, we will use nuclear weapons again and that will be the end of the People's Republic of China. Okay, so you understand the implications of crossing the nuclear threshold. Our strong relationship with the United States, including Australia's Anzus Treaty, has meant that we have stood shoulder to shoulder with the United States in every major conflict of the last century, including the most unpopular, costly and punishing ones such as Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Our experts believe that a war with China if triggered by an invasion of Taiwan will involve Australia, that's because whatever the United States does, we will follow. I think Australia is acting in a way that indicates its willingness to accept the tougher American strategy, which is the strategy for Australia, given any war. between china and the united states will essentially happen in our backyard is this a conflict that australia will be able to avoid even if we wanted to our close military ties with the united states include us intelligence bases on our soil pine gap in the northern territory and the northwest cape in off the coast of Western Australia, both would be critical in any conflict with China.

The facilities here, as you would know, in the immediate moments of any conflict situation are likely to come into action and that, unfortunately, would mean that Australian soil could well be used in a conflict sooner. Australians have really had a say in that question. The truth is that the Australian government has little control over what happens at these bases or what defense decisions might be made from them when the United States faces a war over American assets on Australian soil. It's true, it's not. An order to shoot can be given and we won't know at all.

We call these things joint facilities, but the fact is that you know that members of the American Congress have more oversight and knowledge of what goes on in these facilities than members. of the Australian Parliament we have to recognize the position that we are on the most important question any society can face: the question of whether or not to go to war may well end up being decided for us, whatever the theater of war, our futures planners. I agree it would be a front line like no other in history where Australia could be paralyzed before a single shot was fired.

Almost certainly one of the first things that would happen in a major conflict between the United States and China would be to eliminate the GPS system. disabling a lot of US military systems that depend on that, the moment that happens, you can't do an fpos transaction in Australia, you can't get fuel at the gas station because all of that depends on GPS. Australia's economy would be very heavily impacted in the first few minutes in a matter of weeks, we would struggle to get enough fuel and oil, so it's really tempting to think that we could just sit back and ignore it, but the reality is that we can't, so that this is one of these situations where you may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you and there is simply no way around it, but we have a treaty of anzus that raises a lot of questions, the Treaty of answers is, actually, I think. its importance is inflated the only requirement that anzus imposes on australia or the united states is that there be consultations in the event of conflict why i think we should stay out of it is that this would not be a war for taiwan or a war for democracy this would be an escalation of the rivalry between the United States and China, which in my opinion is essentially about economic interests, political dominance in regions of the world.

Ultimately, I see no moral high ground. Sorry, I can't agree with David's opinion on this. United States and Australia. The alliance is essential to our national security. If we look at the scenario in which we choose not to participate, in other words, David's preferred option, then we have to think about the consequencesstrategies to do so. Anzus falls apart, okay, then we are alone in every way. the word alliance is always a living agreement the reality is that we are if we are not in a conflict with taiwan where japan has recently committed to enter if japan the united states is there and we stay out of the way it is the end of the alliance anses for any practical purpose, but will ordinary Australians have a say in whether we join the US in a war with China Clinton?

Is it correct that Australia's involvement in any conflict does not necessarily require a vote in parliament? It's right? uh the decision to deploy troops is just a decision by the prime minister who tells the defense minister and that's it, so the Australian people can't really debate this, the only debate that's happening is what's happening here thank you. Yes, because my point is that everything we are discussing is quite chilling on many levels to the average Australian. Yes, the last time the Australian defense forces were involved in a high intensity conflict was in Korea, we were there for 20 years.

In Afghanistan and the Taliban did not even have an air force, another critical concern for our experts is the impact that a war with China would have on almost one and a half million Chinese Australians, after all, during World War II, Japanese Australians despite having lived here. For more than 50 years they were arrested and imprisoned, all these sociological consequences have not been taken into account with people of ethnic Chinese descent or people who look like people of ethnic Chinese descent being abused in the streets called the extreme right and the marginal sectors, uh for to be put in tournament fields are you all afraid of Chinese Australians being seen as the enemy within me I am absolutely referring to the Australian Chinese community and everyone who looks vaguely Chinese in case you know there are a war with China? what clinton said this notion of internment camps you know it's a very real perspective you know john I'll see you there there is no cosmopolitan and anti-racist way to orient the foreign and military policy of a country towards confrontation with china without that anti-chinese racism that fuels It is the reality we are facing.

The most important wars of the last 20 years have produced no winners. The United States is fighting in Iraq and, together with Australia, has taken down Afghanistan, but the big question is a global confrontation between China and the United States. who would win there's really no good way to say it, but the Chinese, if they haven't outmatched us, they've put us in a position where they could probably beat us under certain circumstances, it depends on how the fight went. place, the former boss U.S. Marine Intelligence Chief Grant Newsham is far from confident that the United States would prevail in any confrontation with China, especially if it were fought in the waters around Taiwan.

Now they have a navy that's bigger than ours and just to give them sort of a sense of things the South China Sea which is the hot spot that's being disputed now the Chinese can probably put 10 ships in the water to all the Americans can send if we have underestimated them john lee yes we have underestimated the Chinese constantly over the last few decades we don't do that anymore and certainly in a war in the Taiwan Strait China could emerge victorious in a military sense . China has been preparing for war in Taiwan for more than 30 years.

David, well, I don't want to find the answer to this question that the post-war scenario in Taiwan is not only bad for China, it is bad for the world, I mean, we are talking about a situation that could trigger, you know, crisis environmental, economic crises, I think you know we're being very like-minded to just imagine that the world would be more or less the same as it was, only with China controlling Taiwan, do we assume that the United States will win some kind of war or do we accept that we may not be able to The bottom line is that the United States may not win, but they actually have to prepare as best they can to try to hold the line here because it is very crucial, if we just give up, throw up our hands and basically We say, "Well, Taiwan, you're on your own, so we." we are giving China the century it wants, in conclusion, those warning of war tonight say we have two critical questions to consider whether we are prepared to allow China to simply take Taiwan as it has declared it will and may do very soon and If so, are we content to live with the possible consequences of doing nothing or is there one more fundamental consideration: are we really prepared to face the prospect of global war? or, as we have also discussed tonight, are we in more danger of convincing ourselves of a war than I am?

What I have a problem with is this notion that China wants to dominate the world, China wants to protect its interests absolutely, but this notion that China is a dark force that wants to take over the world and subjugate everyone, I don't think there is any credible evidence of that. that and it's good that we've had this debate, but we have to make sure that we conduct a debate in a way that doesn't spark fear, anger and anxiety among the Australian people because if we do that it puts us in the way of what leads more directly to all the horrible things we've been discussing today David if China takes Taiwan or tries to do so we won't do anything right I think if things get heated I think we should stay out I think we should I ask all parties to stop and let us pray that they do so.

I think for the future of humanity we need to move away from this notion that it's a dog's world and the only way to resolve disputes is through military force. I think we see it. on the Chinese side, but I think we also see that in some of the opinions that are being presented this afternoon, if China takes Taiwan, it will not stop, it is the first step in that expansion, China has told us that the only thing that stops China . of invading Taiwan are the consequences, so if the United States, Australia, said that we will not participate, that greatly increases the chances that China will be inclined to use force for the so-called resolution of this Taiwan issue, if the United States stands in danger to defend themselves.

Taiwan, which after all, remember, is a Western liberal democracy, like Australia, we would be remiss in our responsibilities as an ally of the United States if we stood back and did nothing. I think it is up to our government of the day to recommend and make the decision to intervene with the United States to defend Taiwan and Clinton. What is your message to Australians? They should understand that the determination of the Chinese government has been well expressed and I believe it is genuine; They intend to take Taiwan by peace or war and the question is what happens not only in the region but also in Australian society as a consequence.

Hi, I'm Liz Hayes, thanks for watching 60 Minutes Australia. Subscribe to our channel now to see new stories and exclusive clips every week and don't miss out on our additional content. minute segments and full 60-minute episodes on ninenow.com.iu and the ninenow app