Universal Basic Income (UBI) - Life After Automation

The rise of machines As

automation

spreads across the American economy, experts say its impacts will be uneven in the world we are creating very quickly. We're going to see more and more things that look like science fiction and less and less things that look like science fiction. I like jobs, how do society, companies and employees adapt to this acceleration of technology? Both governments around the world need a narrative that helps people feel that they belong, that they are being heard, that is one way they can begin to rebuild trust. Hello, welcome to another cold fusion video, the Industrial Revolution has caused a change of seismic proportions.

At no time in the history of humanity has such an acceleration of the economy and people's living standards been seen while creating many jobs. and also displaced some today, this time another revolution is happening In software and hardware, however, this revolution is different compared to anything before. Technology is reaching the workforce faster and more widespread than ever. Where I live, a lot of supermarket checkout staff have already been replaced and in the US, truck drivers. It seems that next even radiologists, accountants and lawyers are threatened by AI, which can do better aspects of their jobs,

basic

ally with newer AI technologies, such as deep learning, as Google co-founder Sergey Brin said, There is currently no clear limit to what can be automated.

So the question is if millions of people start losing their jobs due to

automation

and artificial intelligence, what impact will this have on the modern economy and society? It may not be a guaranteed outcome, but the risks make it worth thinking about. One of the most general solutions to this problem is a

universal

basic

income

or ubi, so what is ubi and what are the arguments around it? her and what will the future of work be like? You're watching ColdFusion TV Universal basic

income

is an idea that goes back centuries. Philosophers of the 16th century wrote of a utopia in which each citizen is freed from the burden of worrying about ensuring his essential needs.

Some of the first pilot tests were carried out in the United States during the 1960s and 1970s. Milton Friedman, the famous Nobel Prize-winning economist, is known for his ideas on free markets. economy and was one of the main supporters of the so-called negative income tax, but in recent times the ubi has been gaining momentum as technology began to replace people from their jobs, the idea of ​​guaranteeing each person a living wage is becoming popular. and recover a presidential candidate for 2020 he is even basing most of his campaign on the idea of ​​ubi the idea is simple to give each citizen a monthly payment to cover their basic needs of

life

in the modern world with the implementation and the question of why we need ubi as you see, it's more complex.

Remember going to Blockbuster, there are a few employees there and a lot of other people behind the scenes delivering the videos to the store etc., or thanks to human ingenuity we can now stream movies and TV online in the comfort of our own homes one could argue that the Internet and Netflix killed the video store employee. The same has largely happened to supermarket checkout workers. They have been replaced by self-service machines. Researchers estimate that 20 to 30 percent of all jobs will be lost due to automation. By 2030, here's a breakdown of the jobs that will be lost by then, so right now low-skilled, repetitive work is most at risk of automation.

Skilled jobs may be at risk, according to a recent study that put lawyers and AI against each other, their task was To review confidentiality agreements, it took the lawyers an average of 92 minutes to complete the task and they achieved an accuracy of 85%. The AI ​​only took 26 seconds and achieved 94% accuracy. Babylon is a company that claims its AI can pass. a medical exam with an average rating higher than that of a human have been providing healthcare services to Rwanda since 2016 a study found that hedge funds using AI returned around eight percent, this is significantly better than those managed by humans that achieved a performance of around two percent in the same period of time in military use, an AI developed at the University of Cincinnati was able to defeat an experienced Air Force colonel every time in a Simulated air battle another AI was also developed that, in some cases, can outperform radiologists in determining diseases based on X-rays.

It can detect nuances that the human eye cannot be sure of. We will continue to need lawyers and doctors in the future. There are some key things, like complex decision-making and empathy, that may never be automated, and furthermore, just because an AI works well in test environments doesn't mean it's ready for the market yet, but The point remains that if technology continues to advance, we may need fewer humans to do the same amount of work and we don't. It is precisely AI that should worry us in recent decades: the top percentiles of many countries have become richer, while the rest of the population stagnates.

Wealth inequality in the United States is especially skewed: the top one percent of American households own 40% of the country's wealth. Wealth For those who are curious as to why wealth inequality occurs in the first place, it is largely due to central bank monetary policy. If you've seen some of my older financial videos, this shouldn't surprise you, but now I'm not just saying it. The Dutch central bank recently published a study of the last hundred years that includes the 12 most advanced economies and came to the same conclusion: lax central bank policy causes wealth inequality, so what does this wealth inequality mean for the future? in which low income?

Skilled labor is being replaced by high-tech machines. If things continue as they are, it would be logical to assume that the wealth gap will continue to increase and perhaps even at a greater rate than before. Right now, the problem has become so serious than in recent years. The United States has created a new term the working poor the working poor are people who earn below the poverty line despite actively working factors such as low wages due to lack of education contribute to this problem a person can become trapped in a feedback loop with little prospect of escape perhaps they can't afford to go back to school because they need to work to survive or lack of finances prevent them from getting a better-paying job approximately 11% of American families are classified as working poor now ask yourself what happens to these people when basic entry level jobs become obsolete in the face of technology.

Today, the number of jobs lost and the time frame in which jobs could be lost is much higher and shorter than ever before. We are basically raising the bar on what is considered entry level unskilled work by creating technology that is capable of performing that task, we are pitting humans against machines and there seems to be a clear favorite: humans can only work about eight hours a day, they need lunch breaks and free time. An algorithm or a robot can basically run 24/7, you don't need any of that. If you are a CEO and only think about profits, it is not a difficult decision to make and this is where some people argue that money for ubi is sometimes known as the robot tax.

Basically, the money saved should go into other areas to help support society. Bill Gates argues that a tax on robots would be logical to ensure that a company is paying its fair share. Companies with less automation would not do it. You will be taxed that much, but a company that uses automation a lot would pay a slightly higher tax. It is unlikely to slow the advance of automation. Simply put, the robot tax is a proposed method to ensure that the increased productivity of automation is captured by society and not just by an individual. company, as you said, this money could go to the ubi system, although this is all just a very rough idea of ​​ubi, but there is a man who is analyzing the issue in very detail if you accept that it was the biggest economic transformation we have ever had.

Five million manufacturing jobs have been shed, four million due to automation and 30 percent of malls and stores are closing and retail employees being the number one job in the economy, how do you solve that problem? ? 2020 US presidential candidate Andrew Yang is perhaps one of the only politicians in the world thinking seriously about this problem. In fact, as he mentioned, he based most of his campaign around the issue. The yen proposes $1,000 per month as the starting amount for ubi. Let's use it as an example. Both the rich and the poor would have the right to receive. You can choose not to receive this payment if you think you don't need it with this thousand dollars.

Basically, everyone can be insured to a minimum standard. So why is it better than the current welfare solution? Well, first of all, there are people on both sides of the argument. Let's look at someone living on welfare, if the state were to pay them $1,000 a month for being unemployed, this could incentivize them not to look for work, as their welfare payment would decrease or be taken away entirely once they have started. to earn money with work. Let's say they found a job paying $2,000 a month depending on the program and country, they may lose their $1,000 welfare payment entirely and therefore could be only $1,000 better off on welfare.

Now let's assume this same person was receiving $1,000 under EBI. If they took that $2,000 job, this person would now be exactly $2,000 better off than when they were unemployed and on welfare. Of course, there are different, more complex examples of welfare systems that try to curb this disincentive, but in general this is an argument in favor of ubi it. can help encourage lower income groups to work, improving their situation and the economy as a whole; However, the argument remains that people who are inherently lazy and unmotivated to work will have an excuse to remain the way they are, but it can also be said that this pales in comparison to the productivity increase we will have thanks to automation. and AI, but it is human nature for people to not only survive but live comfortably, perhaps a better education for their children, a bigger car or a bigger house.

There are more motivations to work than simply meeting needs and this is what ubi aims to address. People could also decrease their time at work to spend more time on what they love and less on what they have to do, but in the face of increasing automation and artificial intelligence, this may not be their choice and we'll get to that in a moment. moment, so where will all this money magically come from? As mentioned above, that is where taxes and businesses join the conversation with increases in overall productivity and lower cost due to automation, businesses can be more profitable and therefore pay more taxes if we look at the current welfare system and Rianne believes that the EB I economy can work according to Yang in the US currently spends 1.5 trillion dollars on various social welfare programs, nationally it would take 1.8 trillion to present its EBI, speaking on several podcasts, including those of Joe Rogan and Sam Harris, Young describes the size of the US economy as being approximately 20 trillion, with around 4 billion of which he believes, according to various studies, the federal budget gives the average American an extra $1,000 per month, which would result in $40 billion in new taxes due to increased spending.

This is because the money in the hands of the average American would flow back into the economy as they would spend it on food, car repairs, child care, etc. Yang cites studies that project 2 million new jobs and economic growth of 8 to 10 percent. If Tevi spends an additional $100 to $200 billion, it will save on incarceration and emergency services, as crime would be expected to decline marginally. This is all educated speculation on Yang's part, but it's still very interesting to think about Yang's total claims that about a trillion of the 1.8 trillionrequired can be claimed for various net benefits that the ubi creates.

The economy attributes the remaining eight hundred billion yang to taxes and to companies that are benefiting from the automation of jobs in a very similar way to the tax on robots. He argues that much of the world already has something called a value-added tax and if the United States were to introduce this, that Even with half the rent that Europe has, it could claim the last 800 billion. He also goes on to say that Alaska has effectively had a type of ubi for decades. Residents received $2,000 a year from state-funded taxes on oil companies. Basically, the ubi is. aimed at ensuring that everyone gets a piece of the pie and not just big oil or big tech companies, as Yang says, technology is the oil of the 21st century.

We started thinking about this quickly for the sake of 3.5 million truckers. In the United States, with the rise of self-driving cars, companies are beginning to realize the potential of driverless trucks for affected people. It's not a matter of if, but when, throughout human history, we occasionally experience these massive changes, no matter how they happened. for decades or more, allowing people to retrain for new jobs that will be created from this technology, although the current changes are much faster and, in addition to finding new jobs for masses of people, it is said that historically the Government-funded displaced worker training programs have been successful. rates from 0% to 15%, so not only do we need to create jobs as fast as technology is displacing them, but we would also have to find a way to become amazing at recycling and that hasn't been the case historically, while jobs can be created for everyone In the face of this disruption, the question is how many jobs will or will be accessible to the unskilled workers who were displaced, as the newly created jobs require skilled workers, such as programmers and data analysts.

Early results from a recent pilot program in Finland found that ubi didn't help people who were unemployed get jobs, but it did make them happier and less stressed. About 50% of participants reported being healthier and having better overall well-being while the rest remained the same Y Combinator, the startup accelerator that funded air B&B, will launch a ubi study in the United States in 2019, after three years of obstacles regulatory requirements, other experiments are ongoing or about to begin. soon in Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Uganda, many other governments are apparently interested in exploring the idea, but we may not know the success or failure of ubi for a few more years after more research is done on these testing programs despite EBI testing. which was carried out as early as the 1960s, there is still a lot we don't know when it comes to practical implementations of the idea.

One of the main arguments against TBI is that it would subsidize people for being lazy, giving them an excuse not to work on it. may be true to some extent former vice journalist tim poole argues that ubi will simply allow people to do nothing and at the same time demand higher wages in jobs, thus increasing the cost of goods and services. However, Tim agrees that in the face of increasing automation something like this would be necessary, probably one of the less discussed but potentially devastating consequences of the ubi is that some economists think such a measure could collapse the entire global economy, so If you understand and can recognize the data and mathematics behind these indicators, then you don't have to guess so much what is going to happen, you could follow the data and this way you could try to be on the right side of the trade.

I think the bond market will completely implode in the near future, but you tell them there is a dynamic behind it. that to prepare for the bond market, bond price feeds will implode i.e. crash and yields will skyrocket, you will need the m2 money multiplier to skyrocket. Lac, that happened, you will need things like modern monetary theory,

universal

basic income, your new self. We need to go around the banking system and send cash directly to people, all of that will happen in the wake of the next recession. It's just not going to happen now as they claim that measures like the EBI could cause the US bond market to crash.

The market crash is much worse than a stock market crash or a recession because this indicates a lack of trust in the fundamental fiat currency or the government that controls your currency and when that happens it is very difficult to recover, and since the US dollar is the US dollar. reserve currency, this could have a much worse after effect than the 2008 financial crisis, but if I'm honest no one really knows if this will happen and no one knows one hundred percent what the economic consequences are, another argument is that inflation will be caused by people demanding higher wages and companies raising prices as more people have money to spend;

However, a free market would mean that business competition would ensure that prices are as low as possible and while prices may increase due to wage increases, it may be insignificant compared to the overall benefit of the economy. Clinical psychologist Jordan Peterson and now famous internet personality also argues against TBI, but agrees that he is trying to address a problem we will have in the future in a world and economy where robots outnumber humans; However, Peterson maintains that money alone would not be enough to make people live happy lives. He points out that people need a distinct and delineated purpose and simply giving them money without that purpose is the wrong solution and this may be the solution.

The biggest problem ubi can't solve. In conclusion, and to be clear, when free market innovation goes so far that no one has new jobs, we have to start thinking about things a little differently. It may be essential to curb civil unrest and poverty if companies start using it. robots as labor wealth inequality may widen as the poor and unskilled will no longer be able to find work as long as they continue to need the food and necessities that those businesses produce without some sort of tax or wealth distribution system, it could simply be that the owners of these companies may be the only ones who reap the benefits the main idea of ​​uPA is to ensure that people are not left behind the market remains free it is just an idea and a solution to the process we are in when As we begin to approach peak capitalism, it will be a time when we were so efficient at creating goods and services that we will no longer need large portions of people for these jobs.

Under the UBI, people will have more free time to enjoy activities like spending time with family and friends, but human nature has an inherent desire to be productive and contribute something meaningful to the world. I'm sure many people complain about their jobs and dream of winning the lottery and never having to work again. Perhaps these people may be happy for the first few months of not working, but within a few years they may have the feeling of a

life

without purpose. When it comes to ubi, people often say flippantly: well, now everyone is free of purpose. pursue their own passion, but they forget the empathetic angle, everyone's not them there.

There are also many people in this world without passions or hobbies. It can be said that curiosity is the beginning of passion. Follow the trail of what you're curious about and then turn it into a passion. Others still might find it difficult to do so. So what happens to them if technology replaces their jobs and they can't retrain? So what meaning will they find in life that is personal to them and only they can solve that problem, so automation is on the way? The advances in technology are too great to ignore; the people at the bottom of the workforce are going to start being replaced.

Ubi may be able to solve the problem of how everyone will be able to feed themselves in this future, but what about that burning question of purpose now might be harder to solve? Let's settle this to conclude our look at universal basic income. I think this video is very important for people to fully understand what is happening in our world today. If you enjoyed it, it would mean a lot if you could share it so more people can learn. If you want to see more videos like this or something related to technology and business history, I cover a variety of topics on this channel and there are some really good things to come so feel free to subscribe, there is also a new version podcast of these.

Videos coming soon and I'll leave a link for that below anyway, this has been: gogo and you've been watching Cold Fusion and I'll see you again soon for the next video. Greetings guys, have a good time. Cold Fusion if you're thinking.