The World Ahead 2024: five stories to watch out for

Mar 19, 2024

2024

As old conflicts continue and new threats emerge, one image, more than any other, will be replicated around the

world

. In a year that will see the greatest demonstration of democracy in history, what else will the next 12 months bring? These are some of the

stories

that will shape the

world

to come.

2024

will be the most important election year in history. More than half of the world's population lives in countries that hold national elections. But there are two elections in particular that could have huge repercussions around the world. One is the most powerful democracy in the world The other is a small autonomous island less than 200 kilometers off the coast of China The elections in Taiwan in January are important because the island's future is very uncertain According to US intelligence, the president Xi Jinping wants his military to be prepared for an invasion in 2027.

Taiwan is a point of geopolitical tension. An invasion by China could lead to war with the United States. Therefore, the stakes are high for whoever wins power in both Taiwan and the United States. The strategy they follow could deter a Chinese invasion, or accelerate it. On the island itself, the threat, for some, is already tangible. More than half of Taiwanese citizens do not trust their government's ability to defend against an invasion from China. Well, of course, you have to know what the wound is to treat it. Some citizens are even attending civil defense workshops, including 22-year-old Chen Buo Yen.

More Interesting Facts About,

the world ahead 2024 five stories to watch out for...

Regarding the possibility of war, it is best to be as prepared as possible. It would be a lie to say that I am not afraid, but yes. And those concerns will be at the forefront of Taiwanese voters' minds when they go to the polls in January. Voters will face a choice between the current ruling party, which emphasizes Taiwanese self-government and the need to resist Chinese harassment, and two opponents. parties, eager to seek warmer relationships. Supporters of the current government claim that opposition would make it easier for China to eventually take over Taiwan. And on the other hand, the opposition camp thinks that the DPP government is going to take Taiwan towards a path of legality. independence And that will be a path towards an eventual war with China.

The likelihood of war will not only depend on what happens in Taiwan's elections, but also in those in the United States. Would you send the US military to Taiwan if President Xi invaded? President Biden says he would I won't say, I won't say A second Trump presidency would mean unpredictability and increasing levels of risk And not just for Taiwan, but for the United States and the rest of the world In July, all eyes will be on Paris for the 2024 Olympics But as athletes battle on the ground, spectators' eyes may be drawn skyward At first glance, it could be mistaken for a helicopter But this is a large drone And it could be the future of transportation public Known as electric vertical take-off and landing eVTOLs They are completely battery-powered, making them a sustainable way to fly Five years ago, eVTOLs were only known to a very small group of people who were actually aviation fans who They were experimenting with new technologies.

Over the last year we have seen many public test flights and next year commercial service will be the milestone. If all goes according to plan, the Paris Olympics will mark the start of commercial eVTOL flights. Volocopter, the company conducting the flights, is hoping to transport tourists along

five

different routes at speeds of up to 110 km/h. We believe that if we can fly in Paris, we can fly anywhere. This is also the beginning of a new area of mobility. Allow quiet, safe and sustainable vehicles to enter city centres. Technology is evolving so quickly that aviation regulators are scrambling to figure out how to certify flights.

Volocopter has had to backtrack on its original plan for autonomous, pilotless eVTOLs to try to appease the authorities, I believe. The only way to obtain certification now and in the coming years is by offering a piloted version It is not technology that prevents us from moving towards autonomy It is certification and public acceptance Volocopter is not the only company that hopes to take off in 2024 In Around the world Around the world, other companies are taking to the skies in a market that could be worth $1 trillion by 2040. But while much of the industry will be commercial, some companies will cater to those who prefer to go private.

We've got two big wings for you We're getting all the momentum from In 2024, Palo Alto startup Pivotal will launch an eVTOL that anyone with deep enough pockets can buy and pilot themselves. With just one seat, it's more of a flying motorcycle than a flying taxi. The feeling is quite hard. describe to see the world from up there The company offers a few weeks of training but no pilot's license is needed As long as you only fly over rural terrain and during the day The Helix will be one of the easiest learn-to-fly vehicles ever made . A single joystick is required to do everything the aircraft can do, from takeoff to landing, hovering, and forward flight.

Although, at $190,000, they aren't cheap. There is no denying that at first it will be used primarily for recreation, but it will grow from there and become a new form of transportation that we will one day take for granted. I'm Tom Standage, editor of ahead

Some people worry that imposing strict rules too soon will stifle technology, and other people worry that if we don't act now there could be dangerous consequences. Until now, much of the debate around regulation has focused on the most powerful AIs, known as frontier models, and the risks they could pose to humanity. danger of decision makers looking in the wrong direction. We should focus on the real immediate potential, but also the real immediate risks of this technology, which is not about killer robots, it's about things like bias and discrimination. Many governments are not very transparent. on how they implement AI in decision-making In London, the charity Public Law Project has been trying to find out how the British government is using algorithms.

We can see 28 tools that are currently used by the Ministry of the Interior. One of his projects examines the British government's use of machine learning, a form of AI, in its investigation into welfare fraud. People applying for welfare, all of the same nationality, had their benefits suspended for a really long period of time. He is concerned that some of these systems may be operating in a discriminatory manner. There is a precedent for this. In 2021, an AI welfare scandal brought down the Dutch government. The tax service here in the Netherlands was unfairly accusing tens of thousands of families of being defrauded. with child benefits And Australia's "Robodebt" scandal led to at least two suicides Driven to desperation by a soulless, automated debt collector and a government that called them welfare cheats There have been some moves in an attempt to mitigate The short-term risks The EU is expected to introduce its AI Law in 2024.

There will also be two summits on AI security, one in South Korea and another in Paris. But if they are anything like the first security summit at Bletchley Park in 2023, their focus will be mainly on frontier and existential models. risk I think talking about these existential and theoretical future risks is really just a way to promote technology in general. Elon Musk would like to sell you a self-driving car that uses AI to drive itself, but he also says that AI is really, really dangerous. If we are not careful when creating artificial general intelligence, we could have a potentially catastrophic outcome.

Some people even go so far as to say that this is actually a kind of deliberate decoy that attempts to distract from the real existing harms of AI systems. And it's also a way to draw the attention of people working in the field to how powerful and wonderful they are. They're actually saying, "I did this thing that could destroy the world. Am I not smart?" In 2024, one of the world's overlooked greenhouse gas emitters will finally be in the spotlight. Until now, governments' attention has focused on cleaning up the most visible polluters, such as energy and transportation.

But next year, the focus will be on industry and production. of materials critical to modern everyday life Industry is often out of sight, unlike the cars we drive or the electricity that powers our homes. But in fact, almost everything we need in our lives is made by industry Factories and other industrial facilities belch enormous amounts of greenhouse gases Almost 29% of all emissions It is the same amount as electricity generation and almost double the transportation. Much of the problem is that some industrial processes require high temperatures, which currently rely on fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas.

It has been a real challenge, but it is also becoming a real opportunity for some innovators. Coolbrook is a Finnish startup developing technology that it believes can bring the world one step closer to green industry. Its rotodynamic heater generates high temperatures using electricity.

After decades of development, 2024 is the year this technology will begin shipping to factories. These are absolutely exciting times. The last ten years have already been a time of intensive development, and the last two or three years have really been a game-changer for us. What we've seen now is that heavy industry is really starting to move. The industry could be more willing to decarbonize. due to incoming regulation In 2023, the European Union introduced a carbon tax on imports We will see how it really plays out in 2024 We are likely to see other large economies, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia, introduce their own versions. of a carbon tax And this type of regulation has stimulated the creation of other decarbonization technologies.

Some startups have come up with new ways to contain renewable energy in what are sometimes called "rocks in a box," sort of small packages that get very hot. , they retain heat and can release it when a factory needs it. But sometimes the industry can lag and questions remain about whether it can change quickly enough. One of the obstacles to decarbonizing heavy industry is that the processes are very complicated. They can be expensive and involve investments in new capital equipment, something the industry does not want to do. Factory bosses don't like to close their factories and replace the equipment they use because of dreams of environmentalism.

It's a bit like changing the wheels on a bus while the bus is moving at full speed, but that's more or less what we have to do. In 2024, the US-led world order will be challenged again as a bloc of non-Western nations grows larger. The BRICS, made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, will add

five

new members Individually, the BRICS are some of the largest and most interesting economies on the planet China is the second largest economy in the world India is growing rapidly In 2024, the club of five joined by Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Argentina was also scheduled to join, but that now seems unlikely under its new president, Javier Milei. On paper, BRICS+ looks like a formidable group. Together, their members represent almost half. of the world's population and its share of GDP is approximately 20% higher than that of the G7, a group of wealthy democracies allied with the United States. But in reality, their power will depend on how well they get along. They don't seem to have that much in common They are very, very different economies India is very enthusiastic about green minerals China seems to be driving its economy towards consumption rather than investmentWhat's more, there have been recent skirmishes between the armies of China and India along their shared border.

There is also the possibility that we will have discovered that the BRICS mean very little more than a club for people to discuss things. But what's really interesting about all of these countries that are joining next year is that they are the countries that have had some of the most tense moments. Relations with the West and its financial order This global financial system was created among the ashes of the Second World War. At Bretton Woods, 44 nations met to establish a new international monetary and financial order with the United States at the helm. What is significant about the expansion of the BRICS? is that it challenges this world order led by the United States.

The most important thing about the BRICS has always been that the United States is not invited and there are ways in which the BRICS are using that US-dominated financial system and trying to twist it in their favor. advantage The BRICS have created their own alternative to the World Bank and their own currency swap lines in which countries agree to exchange different currencies, counteracting the influence of the IMF and its preferred currency, the dollar. And it is not just the global economic influence of the United States that is being challenged by the rise of the middle powers.

The world is changing and America's influence is declining. The United States is also a power in terms of security and its military is far superior to that of any other country in the world. But more and more smaller, richer countries are playing the role of global negotiator. In the Ukraine war, much of the mediation has been done by Turkey. And in the Gaza war, by Qatar. It is unlikely that the power of The United States will be eclipsed in the short term. Its network of allies remains much larger than China's. But in 2024, expect the world to become more multipolar as middle powers flex their muscles.

Thanks for