The United States, China, and the Future of the Global Order

Good evening everyone and welcome. I am delighted to be here tonight to moderate what we are sure will be a lively discussion about the rivalry between us and China, the

future

of the and the

future

of the

global

order

. As H pointed out, I'm RI Daniels. I'm the CEO of the Asian Society Policy Institute and before we turn the conversation over to Kore and Orville for some initial thoughts on the competition between us and China, I want to talk a little bit about where we are right now, so during the In the Last 25 years, let's say, there have been so many changes in this relationship between the United States and China, in part because these countries have changed so much in 25 years, with China's entry into the wut and the

global

ization process moving much more rapidly since that time. engine.

Well, there really has been a shift in the balance of power in Asia and there have also been numerous kinds of new opportunities and challenges created by that economic integration process, but also by the technological revolution that we are all experiencing, they really changed the way in which These two countries see each other and see their place in the world, so we are now in a period in which the relationship between the United States and China has gone from being on a relatively cooperative basis under the George Bush administration 2 under the process of diplomacy from the Obama administration to Strategic and economic dialogue to truly confront a new set of irritants and challenges in the bilateral relationship.

Some of those challenges have to do with China's changing system as China moves up economic value chains and begins to prioritize things over wholesale. economic growth some of those changes have to do with our reactions to globalization and the blame that has been placed on China, rightly or wrongly, for its role in, you know, perhaps eroding our competitiveness, economic competitiveness in the world, but anyway, you know. If you look at the situation, there is no doubt that the relationship is now not seen first as a cooperative coexistence or diplomacy, but as a strategic competition and, in some cases, a strategic rivalry, so with that backdrop in mind I want to start with Kure and then move on to Orville for some opening remarks.

What, from your perspective, are the United States and China competing on and what kind of end state do you think these two countries hope to achieve in terms of their role in the world but also their relationship with each other? Now, thank you Rory, first let me start by thanking Hammed and you for welcoming me back to the Asia Society. I feel like this is almost my second home because I first came to the Asia Society in 1984, 40 years ago, when I was first appointed Singapore's ambassador to the UN and I used to come here all the time, so coming back here is like coming home and I'm also very happy to be a member of Perry Wellhouse, representing Upen in this discussion as well.

To answer your question, Rory, uh, I think before you can answer the specific question about the direction of US-China relations, it's important to emphasize that we are dealing with this within a very different global context and we have to understand this different and difficult Glo Global context. If you are going to understand the dynamics that are also driving the relationship between the United States and China, there are at least three fundamental ways in which the world has changed. First of all, to put it bluntly, the 21st century is where most of the US-China competition that will take place will be the Asian century.

What do I mean when I say it will be the Asian century? It means that the shift in economic power will shift to Asia; the largest economies will be in Asia and just to illustrate that. period, uh, in the 1960s, not long ago, of the top five economies, zero were Asian, zero today, three of the top five are Asian and that future growth, as you know, will come from Asia, so that It's a big change that's happening. Secondly, on the geopolitical front, we are clearly moving from a unipolar world to at least a bipolar world and I like to say that it is actually a bipolar world in a multipolar sea because many other new powers are emerging and becoming more active.

And so, the unipolar moment that the United States enjoyed at the end of the Cold War is over, but many people have not adapted to the fact that it is over and that we now have to live in a world in which we have to deal with pure powers and other major Powers that are not necessarily going to give in so easily to the wishes of the great Powers, so we have to deal with a much more complex world and, thirdly, and equally important, in the cultural dimension we are also seeing some fundamental aspects changes that are happening where we have had a world in a sense that has been dominated by one civilization - Western civilization for the last 200 years and the Western

states

, as you know, colonized everything 100 years ago if you were sitting here in 19 uh 24 The West ran the whole world effortlessly right now, you have a multiple valve where Domin is resurfacing and coming back strong, so even on the cultural front it's a different world.

So within this broader global context, we also see competition between the United States and China, so why? If it is happening, the reason is very simple: the United States is doing exactly what any number one power would do when it sees the rise of a competitor: it makes sure that the competitor does not overtake it, so it pushes it down, that is what everyone does. The great powers have done it, so what the United States is doing is not surprising, it is predictable and if you put X or Y, that is exactly what would happen because the United States has been used to being number one and does not want to see this place in the hands of another power, but at the same time, while this is predictable and expected, what is not clear to the rest of the world, which is obviously watching this contest and is very concerned about this contest, what exactly are the main strategic objectives of the United States in this conflict.

This, frankly, as I say in my book, has China One, that idea that I got from Henry Kissinger in a one-on-one conversation when I was writing my book, while China was winning and beating, to some extent you also alluded to it in your comments, so For example, the goal of the United States is to stop China's economic growth, maybe that is why there are trade tariffs, sanctions, etc., the goal cannot be achieved or the goal is to overthrow the Chinese Communist Party. Again I will explain later what can be done or the goal is to do what the United States did with the Soviet Union, effectively contain it, leave it confined to a small universe and disconnect it from the rest of the world again, as I will explain. then it can't be done, so at the end of the day what the world asks is what exactly does the United States want to achieve in this competition and what will be the end game.

Okay, fantastic. Well, you've already put a lot of things. on the table for us to come back and discuss, including fundamental changes, the emergence of a multipolar system, the economic power and dynamism of Asia, new cultures, which I think is a really interesting point that we should come back to, but it also raised a a lot of questions about our strategic objectives, so Orille, could you give us your perspective on what the United States and China are competing against and why you know what the United States hopes to achieve with this and what is the end state that we are looking for?

It's always a great pleasure to talk to Kore because he immediately makes me think in ways I don't normally have to think about. The first thought that comes to mind after hearing your comments is this: you ask what the new US strategy is. 1972 I guess you could call it engagement. I would like to ask you what you think China's strategy is. What are you looking for? Because in reality it is a dance between two partners. It doesn't just depend on the United States, as I'm sure. I agree, so what do you think China is after? If I may ask you a question, what power with claims to great power does the wolf adopt?

Warrior diplomacy antagonizes, I mean, who antagonizes? Canada, Sweden, Norway, Australia, India, I mean, I could go on and why, what's going on here. How does that benefit anyone, much less China? I I I I I I I was looking forward to the opening comments of Oh, excuse me, I thought you'd have about seven minutes of prepared commentary, give me something to think about, but I'm very, I'm very. happy to answer your question and if you don't mind, forgive me again for doing this, when you talk about our world and how the world especially sees what China's goals and strategies are.

I want you to keep in mind an important statistic which is that 12% of the world's population lives in the West and 88% of the world's population lives outside the West and let me point out from the beginning, very clearly and very boldly, how 12 % see China not like 88% see China and, for example, when you ask me what China is trying to access Lish and if you want, I can share with you what I learn from my conversations with my fellow Asians, Africans and Latin Americans. They see that China is trying to come back once again as a strong civilization that it once was and you know, China is that he knows better than I do.

He is the China expert. By the way, I'm not an expert on China. I want to emphasize that once immediately I am a China watcher and of course we have to be China watchers because in Southeast Asia, as you all know geographically, the power that is going to have the biggest impact on us is clearly China, just by pure proximity. Just as Latin America will live in the shadow of the United States of America, Southeast Asia has to live in the shadow of China and India, and I myself emphasize that our perspective and that of other Africans is that we have seen this civilization for 4,000 years.

The years go up, down, up, down, so China's comeback is just part of a long 4,000 year history of dynastic cycles and when Chinese civilization falls, it can fall very, very badly and I think Oille knows better. than any of us. They went through one of the worst centuries, the century of humiliation from 1842 to 1949, but it is not normal for Chinese civilization to underperform for so long, it is much more normal for them to return after a while, so what we see From now on They say of Sais that Asia is the return of a civilization that we have seen for centuries rise and fall, so now it is a natural return, so when China tries to claim a place in the world as one of the great powers, It's a perfectly natural development now. you mentioned things, you use words like wolf warrior diplomacy and the interesting thing is that while the term wolf warrior diplomacy is used so often in the Anglo-Saxon media and, as you know, the Anglo-Saxon media, let's be very direct about it, this has a A very jaundiced view of China and the rest of the world discounts what the Anglo-Saxon media says about China, what the rest of the world does is look at what China does and then deal with it and at the end of the day You will notice that countries have the option of choosing whether they want to trade with China or not want to trade with China and if we look at the facts, China today trades much more with the rest of the world than the United States.

We also want to have trade with the United States, but trade, as you know, is a voluntary activity but it benefits the countries that do it, so you take a country like Brazil, which is much closer to the United States than to China. 20 years ago it took Brazil a year to export a billion dollars to China, today it takes Brazil 60 hours to export a billion dollars to China, so why shouldn't Brazil have a normal trade relationship with China so that They can see? What I am trying to suggest is that if you look at many of the countries in the global South, not all countries in the global South are very happy to have normal relations with China and do not have difficulties;

The difficulties have arrived. As I said mainly between the US and China, for understandable reasons this is not what would happen when there is a big power shift and in fact I think in some ways what the US did towards China were predictable responses from China towards the United States are also predictable, of course, we live in a truly interconnected world, just where the type of narrative about the rise and fall of great powers ends up reverberating in different ways. Countries are very happy to trade with China and I will do so. Turn to Orville in a minute to get his take on how the United States views China's behavior, but from my perspective I don't think the United States wants to hurt China's legitimate trade with the world, but at the same time countries are trading. more with China, they are also increasingly seeking security assistance from the U.S.

Orville, could you unpack this a little bit? What are some of the concerns about China's behavior as it rises that are causing this kind of demand signal for more Western attention? um maybe including some of the economic activities coionas you mentioned with Canada and how do you see that in terms of China's rise in this system and its potential effects on global development in the future? um I think you know um Kure, I agree with you that, yes, China has every right to be a great power and in fact it has achieved an amazing development success story and I understand that great powers never they like to be removed and replaced by others, but I think in your argument and in what I would say I would like to ask you if China is not just another great power, it is a Marxist Leninist regime that under Xiin Ping has become very, very different from what we experienced in the '80s and even the '90s after the 1989 Beijing massacre and protests, and I think that without taking that element into the equation, we can't just say that China wants to be a great power, it wants trade with everyone and everyone wants to trade with it because there is another element in the equation, namely what China is looking for as a new type of techno-autocracy in the world and whether other countries are comfortable with that.

Now we were talking a little above about the Philippines. I watch the Philippines extremely. carefully because I see that as a kind of RoR scale I mean Southeast Asia, fair enough, Singapore stuck in the middle doesn't want to have to choose Malaysia. I understand that, but I think we may be approaching a point where it will be at least more difficult, if not impossible, to stay in the middle and I think we see in the Philippines glimpses of that recognition, although we now admit that the world is always in constant change, so I'm curious to know how you see the internal political change in China, where it is returning to a much more majestic mode, not quite, and how other countries feel with the comfort levels in accepting China's hegemony in Asia, if not the world, are you comfortable with this?

I mean, Singapore is a small little country, how do you feel that, yes, you want to continue operating, but there are other factors here that I think you need to take into account. Well, first of all, let me, if you don't mind, quickly comment on the point you raised with Rory when you mentioned that. uh, countries are also reaching out to the United States, uh, you are absolutely right, uh, I want to also emphasize, to avoid any misunderstanding, that there are enormous reserves of goodwill globally towards the United States and that the world is really very happy to see a strong America and a strong China and to some extent if they balance each other out that's not so bad for the world at large so it's not like the world is rushing to embrace China and say goodbye to the United States, that is not the world, in reality the world is more.

The countries of the world, as you yourself said, want to have good ties with both the United States and China. Now to your point about China's internal political makeup and isn't China becoming more Marxist Leninist or Communist? We care about that and I think here I want to emphasize that there is only one country in the world that makes judgments about the internal political systems of another country. It is a very exceptional country and I think you all know American exceptionalism. You know the UN is not far from here, it's a mile or two away. If you go into the United Nations, you will find that one of the most sacred principles of the UN Charter, which is actually very strongly respected. by UN member

states

is that we will not interfere in each other's internal affairs, which is enshrined in the UN Charter and that principle is used by most states when dealing with each other, so the attitude of most states in the world is to choose their form. of the government, no matter what you choose, we will deal with the government that is in power, so whether China is more Marxist or less Marxist, democratic or undemocratic, we can choose, we cannot choose, at the end of the day, it depends on the Chinese choose what. type of government that they have, but I also think that if I can or I'm going to push a little bit, uh, you know, when the United States first fell in love with China in 1971, can I ask you who was the leader of China at that point? , could you call Maong a great defender of human rights?

Would you say he is? This is the man with a liberal mind, a liberal spirit, someone you can, you know, develop a kinship with, you know what I mean. So when it comes to geopolitics, it's a very cruel corporate ideology that can be put aside when necessary, can be used when necessary, and even today, if you say that the United States will defend and defend the Communist Party regimes, will you? why are you cultivating Vietnam, what's the difference, I mean, Vietnam doesn't also have a communist party in power, so I'm just saying this because the rest of the world, when I say the rest of the world has changed, they've become a lot more more sophisticated they see through all this they see that yes, there is serious geopolitical competition between the United States and China they are very concerned about that they want to maintain good ties with both and they will not pass judgment and it is not just to be fair or it is not just Singapore .

I can give you if you want a list of 100 countries. I can give you a list of 100 countries that are in that position. Can we talk a little bit about how countries are addressing this? I wish not to. make a choice like what are the factors, from your perspective, that are reducing countries' options to choose between the US and China when it's clear that most countries don't want to choose or want to be able to choose both, um, but also that it benefits both the US, China and the world that this type of cooperative fabric exists.

What are some of the main irritants? Well before we get to the irritants, let me say that I'm sure that nine US presidential administrations wholeheartedly supported compromise and I take your point that you know that we pick and choose who we oppose and but I think that the difference is that Vietnam does not have any kind of hegemonic claim in the South China Sea is not in conflict with Saku is not competing with the Philippines for second place, Thomas Sha is not threatening to have some kind of meeting Rec with a forced meeting with Taiwan and of course I remind you that lately we have had a bit of dust in India and throughout the country.

China claims that Aronal Pradesh in the northeastern territories have maps with Chinese names in places where the shoe is going to drop, so it's not just that China is a nice little authoritarian country that wants to trade with the rest of the world, it seems to me . that what is agitating the situation and making it very difficult not only for the United States but also China's pretensions to rejuvenate in a way that has global aspirations first in Asia and possibly elsewhere, we don't know, so I think that you know this is a Something much more complicated than simply rejuvenating China and restoring it to a place of greatness is spreading itself in ways that I think are very disturbing for Southeast Asia and when I'm in Singapore what surprises me is that I understand the situation in Singapore, but Actually, I mean, I think that you Singaporeans, and I use you as a kind of metaphor that many people in Southeast Asia are deeply comfortable with the United States and, in fact, many people are They feel quite uncomfortable with China, but they don't want to do it. voice it too loudly because you don't want to cause enough agitation.

I understand that, but I'd love to hear you address what I think some would call China's hegemonic claims in Asia and the destabilizing effect of that on the entire region. I think China is making the same mistakes as other industrialized countries: they're expanding too much, too quickly, they're trying to exert the power they've just been given too quickly, and how does that discomfort in Southeast Asia relate to some of China's countries? The behavior develops from your perspective, well I can assure you that one lesson I learned after studying geopolitics for about 50 years is that the concept of a benevolent great power is an oxymoron: there is no such thing as a benevolent great power, all great powers without she. exception and this has only been true for 4,000 years they will pursue their own interests and we assume that, you know, in geopolitics they are the ones who set and take the prices, so the United States and China today are the ones who set the prices, we are the price setters and if we have any kind of illusion that there is some nice, benevolent, tender great power, they will take care of you and sacrifice their own interests, then you are in trouble, so you are in geopolitics, which is a very cruel game and the countries that don't understand geopolitics are the ones. that they are dragged by conflict and problems and here I want to add a very important point because I think that to a certain extent, uh orille, you are being unfair to the States of Southeast Asia;

At the end of the day, there are 660 million people living in the Southeast. Asia has approximately double the population of the United States of America and this region of the world I want to emphasize is the most diverse region on planet Earth of 660 million people 250 million are Muslims 150 million are Christians 150 million are Buddhists Mahayana Buddhists H Buddhists Hindu Taists confusionists and as I told you we also have many communists in Southeast Asia, if there was a region on planet Earth that should be destined for war and conflict and the British describe it as the Balkans of Asia, which was the Southeast Asia, can they now? please ask yourself a simple question why there has been no major war in south east asia since 79 i.e. 44 45 years there is a hidden genius in south east asia in asan we know how to manage geopolitics we know how to adjust adapt be flexible We know how We maintain good ties with the United States and we do it when President Biden invites the 10 Asian leaders, they come well and when the president invites the 10 Asian leaders, they go and when Prime Minister Alberi of Australia invites 10 Asian leaders, They go, so if you want to learn.

If you want to enter a world where different cultures and civilizations want to learn to live in peace with each other and can live in peace with each other, come to Asan, come to Southeast Asia, don't patronize this region. has achieved some remarkable things from which the entire world can learn lessons and lesson number one learn from us how to avoid wars. First of all, I would say that I agree with you that condescension towards anyone is not a useful policy and I don't want to think that we are condescending to Southeast Asia and I think that, in fact, quite the opposite, we try to recognize that the countries of the Southeast Asia is, as I said, caught in the middle and I think we understand that and I think the goal of the US government is not to pressure people, but that still doesn't answer my question about China's claims both inside and outside. of China and how they read and what you think the response is as the middle ground narrows. and ask the Koreans after what happened with the Thad missile crisis and they were punished, ask the Japanese, you know, ask the Indians, I mean, you've seen this, you know this, so what is it?

How should we respond to this? China is not just another. A normal, quasi-democracy, trying to find its way in the world and rejuvenate itself and regain great power status, is a particular type of political structure with a particular type of worldview and I wonder what you think is the appropriate response to China just leaves him alone withdraw the 7th fleet forget Taiwan forget the South China Sea forget the Saku forget the Philippines for Aus for the quad Do you think that is the appropriate answer or what is your remedy U Rory this is getting very interesting Te I promise a li I am very happy to answer the questions, but I am going to reveal a big secret.

China is like any other country, an imperfect country. It makes mistakes and I know it, but as far as I know, all countries. makes mistakes and it is true that China has had bilateral problems with several countries, there is really no doubt and you are right, you have the right list with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia and also with India, you are right, that is. a list of about five or six countries, I seem to remember that, at the end of the day, there are 193 countries in the world, and most countries have problems with other countries.

The United States has problems with some countries, whether it is Russia, Iran or the North. Korea, China, so this is normal and you know that for each country you give me a list, mention that I can tell you what are the bilateral difficulties that that country has, Greece and Turkey, if you want, India and Pakistan, if you want, have difficulties, having bilateral difficulties is By the way, it is a normal state of the world, so it is not surprising that China has bilateral difficulties, sometimes it handles it well, sometimes it handles it badly, where all countries handle it.

Well, I think certainly in the case of the South China Sea. He's made mistakes, he's been too assertive, and I think the biggest mistake the Chinese have made is creating this nine-dash line and the nine-dash line. I don't know if everyone knows that there is some kind of The hypothetical line in the South China Sea that has been created by China has no basis in lawinternational at this time. If it is true that China claims all waters within the N n-h line as territorial waters, as some people claim China is doing, then China should do so.

No international shipping is allowed through the South China Sea, but I can assure you that yesterday, today and tomorrow, ships pass through the South China Sea Registry regularly without asking permission from China, even though they pass through the n-h line. Waters, so the n-h line is clearly China has made a big mistake, but when talking about the South China Sea it is important to emphasize that the dispute that China has with four Assan states is not a dispute, as you know, with the United States and if you look at it, look. In the four states of Assan, in one way or another, they have been trying to manage it, be it Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunai and the Philippines.

Right now, everyone is focused on the current difficulties the Philippines is having with the United States, but you know that you know that. The Philippines elects a president, glor Mak pava Aro, who moves toward China, then elects another president, Akino, who moves to the United States, and then elac duete, who moves toward China, and then elex maros, who moves towards the United States. Can you anticipate what will come next? Well, you know. that's why it's important to emphasize that don't take a snapshot, it's important to look at the long-term picture and at the end of the day, if Southeast China is really that dangerous, we should be seeing wars or, or, or, you know, shootings, etc. ., but you know that until now everyone has been very restrained, but I can tell you that Southeast Asia knows very well that when China returns as a great power as it has been and will be, we will have to make strategic adjustments, you know that a It's one thing to live next to a mouse, but when the mouse becomes an elephant, you worry about the elephant turning around and how you handle it, and I can tell you that Southeast Asian countries have had great wisdom about how to handle China and the only country that, as you know, knows China very well is Vietnam Vietnam has been China's neighbor for 2,000 years, it was occupied by China for only 1,000 years and you know what the Vietnamese say, the Vietnamese say that to become a leader of Vietnam you must be able to stand up to China and You must be able to get along with China, if you can't do both, you can't be a leader of Vietnam, that's ancient wisdom, so I can assure you that we are not going to become fools and turn around and say, "Okay, do whatever you want." Not China." no, we are not that stupid, it's okay, we have our own methods and means and frankly, if you look at a big country like Indonesia, it also means 260 million people, how does Indonesia get along with China?

Indonesia , by the way, he is a good friend of the United States. You are a good friend of the United States and he also leads China and you want to ask if you want to observe the subtlety and complexity look closely at what the Indonesians do then you understand that the Asians have a level. of sophistication and subtlety that you will never see but it is real and it works and avoids Wars Orville. I want to turn to you to try to get an answer to my original question a slightly different way to try to get your answer: what kind of China do you want and.

Does the United States need in the world to be able to stand up to China and get along with China? Of course, the United States is also a very fickle and unpredictable country and and and It's easy for us to think that it should act rationally and maybe it DOES act rationally at times, but no. It's like that. I think you know that the ideal world was, paradoxically and quite tragically, the world that we had, which was the compromise, was a, I think, Henry Kissinger. he was absolutely right, he flipped the switch and didn't call it engagement, so we didn't know anything about engagement yet, but it became that and the presumption of engagement was: let's more or less accept each other, let's exchange, try to get along and little by little We'll see if we can take a more convergent path and I think you all know that, actually, the United States, this was a very good example of American leadership and I will remind you, after the Beijing massacre, what President Bush did with who.

He was in the initial, you know, before we had an embassy, ​​he was in Beijing representing the United States, he sent Brent Skof to see Dong Sha Ping secretly, he didn't even tell Ambassador Jim Lily that they were going . The transcript of that meeting is very revealing. because what it shows us is that Skull Croft was actually reprimanded by Dun Shaing, who I actually think is quite the hero. I don't want to slander him, but just say that Dong saw the protests as caused by the United States and was very abusive. to make fun of who he was saying, please remember that President Bush thinks about China, uh, the relationship with China is important and he wants to continue.

I mention it just to say that I think the United States has done everything it can to try to find a way to do exactly what you propose. Kure, which is accepting maybe not quite, but getting along, figuring it out, seeing if the future can't offer a better future, a more congruent future, and I think what we'll see if I can quickly skip to the end here and then stop. it's that in a sense, if I read this correctly, I think that xiin ping has ended the engagement in a sad and tragic way both for us and for you and for China and I ask you why, how do you explain it and that changes the game completely So what are they?

What are you gonna do about it? What am I going to do about it? What we do about it? What is the correct answer now that we don't have an operating system for any type of a? As Hamid said, we are compasses, what is the answer? Tell me, could you actually talk to us a little bit about where you think the U.S.-China relationship could be most productive? I mean, I think Orville makes a lot of the points that he's made and so does Kure, the points that he's made. It really pointed out a very deep strategic distrust between the United States and China, they do not trust each other's political systems.

China believes that the United States is fermenting color revolutions within the People's Republic of China because of American democracy, you know, the United States thinks that Chinese techno-authoritarianism could spread throughout the world. world um, we don't have an agreement on what we are doing regarding our Taiwan policy, we are definitely interpreting each other's actions as aggressive when we see our own as defensive, so how do we handle this strategic distrust and maybe if we can ? Add Orville's layer, how do we do it in the XI Jin Ping era? Yeah, big questions, um strategic distrust, you're absolutely right and I can tell you that this strategic distrust between the United States and China is very concerning to the entire world because at the end of the day, no matter what you do, the reality is that China, frankly , has already emerged as a great power.

I don't believe the conventional wisdom of the Anglo-Saxon media, which, by the way, is always wrong about China in 1990, when IST Economics first predicted the imminent collapse of the Chinese economy in 1990. China's GDP was $360 billion. a few months ago. The Economist republished a story saying that the Chinese economy was on its way, that Chinese economic growth had ended, but then it had grown to 18. trillion had grown 50 times after 30 years of predictions about China's next collapse, Why do I emphasize that China's rise is unstoppable and not driven by you or me? It's powered by 1.4 billion Chinese and I'm sure you read Martin Wolf's column in the Financial Times last week in which he said that if 1.4 billion Chinese decide to become prosperous, nothing can stop them and the Chinese people have this great desire. to do it as well as the rest of the world and so does China. by the way, China's economy has serious, serious problems, real estate bubbles, demographic challenges, uh, lack of investor confidence, these are all real problems, but at the end of the day, what we have learned is that if there is a group from Poli creators who seem to know how to solve their problems gradually is uh China now if you want me to answer your question directly uh oille about president xiin ping I want you to know that again I want to go back to my point of 193 countries in the world almost no other The countries of the world judge the quality of the leader they are dealing with, they accept the fact that he is the leader and we have to deal with him.

Good, Bad, Friendly, Unfriendly and, frankly, I want to tell you this if you don't mind. very directly, if you surveyed 193 leaders and asked them in 2017 2018, would you rather deal with President Xiin Ping or would you rather deal with President Donald Trump, but I told you that 193 countries would vote for Sh Ming? So when you emphasize that, oh, he's a leader, that's a problem, that's not the problem you have in dealing with a country and I can tell you that you know that, as I've talked to a lot of people, especially in third world countries, who have dealt with the president.

XI do not share his vision of the president. She sees him as a sane, sober, rational and predictable leader who is promoting China's interests quite effectively. I mean, at the end of the day, you look at where China was when he took power in 2014, where China is. 2024 has come a long way, so whatever we do, we don't underestimate it or China. By the way, we don't underestimate the United States either. I want to assure you that the respect for the United States is deep, deep and very strong, but in the same way, there is also the same deep respect for China and we know that we have to deal with these two great powers and, in fact, we believe that the United States United would be better now, let's not call it compromise, let's not call it containment. just face the reality, the reality is that there is a strong great power like China and you have to live with it and then figure out how best to live with it in a way that improves the national interest of the United States and I would say that to USA. defending your national interest is perfectly legitimate, perfectly legitimate, but in many ways the world would be happier if, given all the extraordinary challenges it faces, for example on climate change, it knew that it was the expert on climate change What else?

The most sensible thing humanity could do is tell the United States and China, please, we have a bigger problem if we burn planet Earth, we have nothing left to live on, we are destroying the only ship we have, why not Do we press the pause button? Frankly, this geopolitical contest is less important than the global challenges we face, so if you ask me what the rest of the world thinks, they actually hope that the United States and China can find ways and means to address their differences in such a way that it does not destabilize to the rest of the world and allows us to focus on what is really important and what lies ahead.

We need to address the audience and engage them in questions, but from my perspective I think that's what reasonable people do in The US government is trying to do with the strategic competition strategy. The question I posed at the beginning I think is instructive: Do we have the Strategic Vision to advance our national interests? Defending our national interest in a rational way that does not make the problem worse, please, the audience, send us your questions, you can raise your hand. I see a hand here, a microphone will be approaching you shortly and we will answer your questions.

Thank you very much for the great talk and it's nice to see you. again for the first time so I have two questions, actually the first one is a little more specific. I remember Ambassador Meani criticized China's reactions in Southeast China decades ago, including Dash's night lines, so how would you evaluate his recent approach to Taiwan Street? Including what happened a couple of days ago, the new Fishbo incident and him being in the country, criticized for not being aggressive, do you think they learned a lesson from the past and become more moderate these days, but also exert more control military in areas that used to be? co-patrolled and the second question is, you talk about the different leaders, so forget about a long-standing regime, possibly in China, what would happen if Trump comes back this year?

A couple of years ago you criticized that you had an article that said Trump helped China gain international control. reputation during his uh during his presidency so what happens if he comes back later this year? How do you think this will affect the bilateral relationship? Thank you. I'd like to give you both a chance to answer those two questions so we can start with you, sure, okay, the first question was about Taiwan, the second question, what happens if Trump comes back? Well, by the way, I think we all know that. I think everyone would agree that by far the most dangerous issue in the bilateral relationship between the United States and China is Taiwan, if there is anything that could cause a war between the United States and China it is Taiwan and I think you all know that From the Chinese point of view, Taiwan is the last living symbol of the century of humiliation because Taiwan, as you know, was thefirst to separate. of China after China lost the Sino-Japanese War in 1895, so not taking back Taiwan seems like some kind of continuing wound on Chinese civilization that needs to be repaired, but at the same time, to avoid war, the best we can do is to maintain the status quo as it is and not change it in any way, so those who want to preserve peace in the Taiwan Strait maintain the status quo and part of it is fictional, of course, the fiction is that the Republic of China represents all of China, but that is a fiction that is actually very important for peace the moment you let it slip that you create war now at the same time.

I think we should all understand and respect the desire of the people of Taiwan to maintain their lifestyle as they do not want it. change, they do not want to join mainland China, that is understandable, but if they want to find a solution that suits the desire of the Taiwanese people to maintain their way of life to which they are accustomed, without any change, without any fear, without It is difficult and also to prevent a war, it can be done, but the question is: do you want to see peace on the streets of Taiwan or do you want to see a war?

So I hope and I must say that, to be fair, many American administrations have understood this. that very, very well, when President Chan emerged from Tai Taiwan, as you know, around 2003 2004, it was President George W. Bush who made it very clear to President Chunri Ban that I will not allow a referendum to be held. It was a very wise decision. by the president of the United States so that the US government understands the sensitivity of this issue, so it needs to be handled very carefully now in the Cas case, so what will happen when Trump comes back?

I think if Trump comes back, uh, if Trump comes back? back, oh, if we don't delete it from the record, no, I'm sorry, yes, no, by the way, I left, okay, let me be very direct, very direct. I would say that most countries in the world would be happier with President Joe Biden. elected, let me be very clear about this, I mean, President Joe Biden is a very predictable, careful, sensitive president who, as you know, has made a lot of friends around the world, but President Donald Trump version two, if he comes back, will.I think it would be a much bigger challenge for the world and that's why, in some ways, if the United States could focus a little more on its own internal challenges, as I say in chapter 7 of my book like China.

One if America could become less of a plutocracy and create a society where the poorest 50% who have seen stagnation in their standard of living for 30 years, if their standard of living can be improved, it would give them a sense of hope, then they would win . I'm not voting for Donald Trump, so from the rest of the world's point of view we want to see a strong, vibrant America where people are happy and elect a happy president. Orville thinks about either, well, I have nothing to say about it. Trump, I have no idea what he will do if he is president.

I mean, it's easy, and I agree with you. Surely the best thing we can do is solve our own problem and be better leaders in the world and preserve. our democracy regarding Taiwan I think my remedy for Taiwan is exactly Maidong and Dong XA pings. Like maong told Winston who is here and Kissinger and Nixon left it like that for 100 years. Don't let you not worry about it when dun xaing stopped. in Tokyo on his way to Washington to meet with Jimmy Carter and reestablish diplomatic relations, he said he was asked about this and said leaving it for future generations, smarter generations, that's the smart way, but that's not Xiin's way Ping, so I think you know what happened with Tong Kong, it's pretty obvious, you know, that there will be some movement towards Taiwan, maybe not an amphibious assault or something, but I bet there will be some pecking around the edges, which which will be really challenging, Kure would finally say, this is what you say: let's just live and let live and get along with China and accept them well, but sometimes I think you would have to agree with me, history provides many examples where that doesn't work and I have raised the question of Ukraine here, I sometimes refer to irid Dental countries with potions of irredentism that act as Russia did in Ukraine.

I'm afraid that could happen somehow in the Taiwan Strait or in the South China Sea or with Saku and I think it's a very foolish claim for China to have that this wound as you describe it is so deep that they have to go up. They will possibly blow up the whole Asian economic miracle and take Singapore down with them, let's take a few more. questions grouped all together if we can, I'm going to say one, two, three, we'll answer all three questions as we take the microphone to the first person, um, on the Taiwan straight.

I think it's really instructive to remember that although there was this fishing boat incident it didn't become a crisis and there was probably some very smart diplomacy between um officials or with officials in Taibe Beijing and Washington who made sure that that incident was relatively okay. contained, making it a bright spot in an otherwise messy neighborhood. Here, thank you very much. I'm curious. Here are his thoughts on China's growing military presence in West Africa. Eatori Guinea and now potentially also Jibou. Sorry, could I repeat that China? China's growing military presence in Africa. China's growing military presence. presence in Africa, thank you, next question, where are we here?

Yes, hello, thank you both for this really interesting talk, but it seems like on the China side we're spending a lot of time talking about how China feels. 2009, when they were at their peak in terms of influence, when comparatively their system of state-backed capitalism seemed much better than that of the West and we do not fully agree that the United States is the only country in the world that judges leadership from other countries uh China was also very free of judgment this was the time of a lot of investments in infrastructure um but I think that's not the China of today and especially after the pandemic uh I think there's a lot more Eric leadership um and a lot less of this type of government by the Council first among equals that was seen before when China was more stable and that is why I think that funny question of today's China with Xi Jinping with a much more personalized leadership seems more unstable, is that not worrying more to these countries than that?

You know that list of who I would choose between the United States and China. I don't think it's an operation anymore. The question is: what are other countries in the world thinking about the situation? stability of XI Jinping's leadership today, yes, it is a very different leadership in China than it was before the pandemic and since the financial crisis, okay, we have time for one more question. I apologize. I know many of you have in the area, we should answer them like Surgen or we will forget you. I have them military among us. Chinese military in West Africa.

The Chinese military in Africa has changed after the pandemic. Can we answer the last question? I am the third. I raised my hand first. I'll go, thanks. I am deeply impacted by Orville's brother's book, The Gift of Time, which highlights Albert Einstein's warning that the nuclear bomb changed everything except our thinking and drift toward catastrophe and what he was talking about was the Western model of nation states plays with these devices and puts the entire world at risk every day and I am also deeply informed by the facts, the realism, we are destroying species more than a thousand times over.

The evolutionary base rate comes from 60% of our oxygen. the health of the pH of the oceans because phytoplankton gives us oxygen we are destroying tropical forests faster than they are replenished and the list goes on of problems that cannot be solved in the Western model of competition between states how can we bring realism realism planetary? Returning to the discussion, as you highlighted the whole range of problems that have nothing to do with identity, nor with civilization, but with the reality we face today, thank you. Well, first I'm going to turn to Orville on these three questions about the Chinese military and West Africa, let me in my weak brain, let me answer that first, yes, the great tragedy for me of the end of the Compromise is that the planet is at risk because The United States and China cannot cooperate and it is absolutely necessary that we learn to do so, but so do I.

I draw your attention to the fact that John Ky has been working on this for decades and has not gotten very far, so reciprocity is needed to solve issues like climate change, nuclear weapons pandemics and that is exactly what is missing Now if I read the door of the Biden Administration correctly. It is open, but I am not sure that it is very open in Beijing to these questions and if it is not open on both sides there is no partnership, there is no dialogue, there is no effective action, so I say that about that, that would be my answer on uh I'll answer another question quickly ministers any of the prime ministers or party general secretaries I watched from who you hit and I think it's a problem he is deeply involved in victim culture he deeply believes in that kind of old mother Trope of hostile foreign forces who are willing to overthrow, you know? regime change, all these things are not entirely false I should add, but it is a problem that makes it very difficult for China to be soluble in the world that liberal democratic states live in even though they often find themselves in a fallen state of grace and I think this is a great danger and in this sense leadership is important.

Last word for you on any of these questions or an answer or three quick questions, first of all, about the Chinese military in Africa. I want to say this with the greatest respect possible. I would say that I respect Africans, if Africans decide for their own security that they want to have closer military ties with the United States, that is a good option, a defensible option if they want to have good ties with China, let them choose, you know. So please let Africans decide for themselves. I can tell you privately that many Africans complain about the condescension they feel when they make their own decisions, so I think it is very important to adopt the view that Africans can judge for themselves what is good for them.

Now, on the question of Xiin Ping, I actually think that I think that what you express is the conventional view of the Anglo-Saxon media. The first point I am going to make is that the conventional view of the Anglo-Saxon media. about xiin PING is not shared by most countries in the world and I can tell you that many of the world leaders who have dealt face to face with President XI consider him to be a sober and reasonable interlocutor and the only point of reference. I would say that where I have the biggest disagreement with Oille is that Oille portrays a man whose dream is to revive Marxism-Leninism in

order

to revive communism.

This is not how most Asians see Shei, we see Shei as someone who believes China has been a great civilization it has had 100 bad years it is time for Chinese civilization to come back so if you have a dream the dream is not has nothing to do with communism Marxism Leninism even though China is run by the Chinese Communist Party it is an instrument of the Chinese Communist The Party is an instrument that has been used to revive what Chi Chi Ping believes to be a great civilization so that's their ultimate goal, but I think the most important question was the last one and I completely agree with you that our planet is in danger in many different ways. shapes and you explain them and, frankly, that's why in my book you know the great convergence.

I say the world has fundamentally changed and to explain how the change fundamentally I use a very simple boat analogy and I hope you will reflect on this boat analogy. In the past, when we lived in 193 separate C countries, it was like we lived on 193 separate ships, so we could decide what to do on our ship, so if one ship got Co, the other ships wouldn't get it. on different boats, but the world has shrunk and I really mean we literally don't live in 193 separate boats anymore, we live in 193 separate cabins on the same boat now, if you're on a boat together and the boat starts sinking, it's the stupidest thing you can do.

It's closing your cabin and saying, I'm going to protect my cabin and that's exactly what we're doing, which is strange. We are supposed to represent the most intelligent species on planet Earth, but we are doing something completely stupid in response to these great planetary challenges. and that's why I say that the wisest thing to do regarding this geopolitical contest between us and China is to at least just press the pause button for a moment, look at what's happening in the world, focus on the real global challenges, maybe laterAfter we solve them, we can get back to the disputes, thank you, okay, we have arrived, thank you very much everyone, we have arrived at the moment.

I don't think we have resolved the rivalry between the United States and China, but I hope you were entertained and also if we can continue to have conversations like this. Including bringing leading Asian experts to this New York audience at the Asia Society, we have a much better chance of being wise and enlightened captains of this ship we are all on.