Method behind Putin’s 88% vote as he's set to be Russia’s president longer than Stalin

here's 30C's lesson on what the legends know: never practice nunchucks in a crowded room, never eat choli before a road trip, always take off your shirt before going GO, don't answer a call near a pool and don't forget that saving is not investing. Legends not only save, they invest in mutual funds, mutual funds Investments are subject to market risks, carefully read old documents related to schemes, which election is the biggest non-event in the history of democracy, in quotes, one could say Pakistan because, ultimately, whoever the bosses want. win wins regardless of the result on the ground you could even say it's china because xijinping was just backed by the caucus almost as

president

forever but that's not really a democracy regardless of what the

russia

ns say you can talk of erogan and turkey, but again, that's that's not something as insignificant as something else that we are talking about today, that is, the elections in Russia, why is an election in Russia so insignificant, even more so than in any of these strongman systems that are not classical democracies, in fact, the New York Times has a story in which a Russian official was quoted as saying, "look, this is not really a democracy, it's an exercise in very expensive bureaucracy".

The event than any other is that for over 20 years, starting with 2224 and then onwards, almost every year now with every election now 2004 2008 2012 and then and then 2018 and now 2024 with every election the same, the same type win, there's no doubt about it. Vladimir Putin wins, but in each subsequent election his

vote

share actually increases. In his first election he obtained 53% of the

vote

s. He became acting

president

when Yelen suddenly resigned on December 31, 1999, so Putin became acting president. In the subsequent elections he obtained 53% of the votes. From then on, 53 became 71%, 63, 6%, then 78% and now, in the last elections that were held last week, he got 88, between 88 and 90% of the votes because the recounts finals are not ready, but definitely. between 88 and 90 in fact, if anything, this is an old line that I have used before in some other context in the context of some other countries and their supposed elections.

I would like to know what happened to the 10, 11 or 12.% who did not vote for Putin, in fact, even the three candidates against him were not really from political parties, they are members of the State Duma and there the three They approved some of the previous decisions and amendments that the State Duma made, including the war in Ukraine, for example, against gay rights and also to increase restrictions on freedom of speech, etc., so it seems that these It was an election designed to only go a certain way, you want to see how one-sided this is and to what extent it is a non-event.

Unless you want to watch it for fun in the areas of Ukraine that the Russians have occupied, Putin is occupied and has now annexed the Donit area. The percentage of votes he currently has is estimated at over 95%. 95%, so it's that kind of election that was held now, look what happened, now he will serve a six-year term and I will. I have presented some of these details in a previous episode 513 of kak letter which I will share a link to. with you you can see it, but I will tell you some details as we go if he still serves in 2030 as he will now with this majority it is a six year term.

I'll tell you how the six-year mandate came about if it helps. then he would have already been president for 30 years after having been president for 30 years as of December 31, 31, 1999 he would have equaled Stalin he would have equaled Stalin and if he takes another term because he made amendments to his Constitution that he can contest for one more term, at least one more term after this and he will become president, then he would have been president

longer

than Stalin and

longer

than Catherine the Great, the great empress of the 18th century and then the only one he could beat in the history of Russia. it will probably be Peter the Great, which is 43 years, that will take some time, that means that in 2036, when he finishes at 83 years old, he will take one more term and maybe one more, but who knows with these strongman governments where strong men think they will be there forever. made in a New York Times article that I am sharing with you by Roger Kohan the columnist a very excellent columnist and writer and he traveled through Russia he was allowed to travel through Russia he traveled through Russia and in that article he quotes a person Who says that ?

Look, I have these kids, these Russian kids, teenagers, little people. Beyond adolescence, they haven't met any other president, so they don't ask who will be the next president, they ask who will be the next Putin, so that's Putin's kind of figure. Now it has become what is driving Putin's success. Now you could say that he rigs his elections, which he certainly does, starting with the fact that no one with credibility can even compete against him; In fact, there was a leader, a leader who thought he would do it. he opposes Putin and he was an independent guy and he was Boris Boris naidin Boris B naidin actually collected enough signatures, popular signatures that are a requirement in Russia to compete against Putin, but what did they do?

They declared most of those signatures invalid and expelled him so that he could not challenge, so the only ones who challenged were the loyal opposition of His Majesty. I'm making up this expression, I'm making it up, but these were people who really posed no challenge to Putin and also didn't criticize Putin throughout the campaign. Now if they did not dare to criticize Putin, they wanted to do it but they did not dare or because they knew that their role was just a role play, no more in any case, this election was won like this, the opposition, in any case, made a small symbolic protest asking voters. asking people to show up Suddenly, one day at noon, suddenly the lines became long, it was a kind of silent protest that does not bother Putin, the other dissident, the only one who openly challenged him and who challenged him He openly had international support.

Alexi naal we know what happened to him he was imprisoned before he was poisoned for the first time through his underwear he failed he survived he recovered in Germany he went to Germany for treatment he recovered and came back quote unquote was he brave enough or was he cordial enough to return he was imprisoned then sentenced to 19 years in a maximum security solitary confinement prison in the arctic region which is where he died suddenly the state said he died of a brain hemorrhage speaking to the media speaking to journalists after his victory Vladimir Putin said he described this as an unfortunate incident.

He also said that he had actually asked AG to trade him. He had agreed to a prisoner exchange in which Naval would have been released in exchange for someone else, but he said that was the condition he would have had then. would have been that they would change him they would send him away with the promise that he will never return in any case the circumstances conspired I don't know what expression to use the circumstances conspired in such a way that Naval will never return anyway it is his wife now he is carrying out some kind of international campaign against Putin on behalf of Naval, but that challenge is already over, how is Putin winning like that anyway?

Because even if he was fixing elections in other countries, we have seen elections. they're rigged, they're rigged, people come off the streets, so in Russia people obviously have a people who have had a high tolerance for dictatorial government, they saw it for a long time under the Tsars and then they saw it for a long time under the communists. the Stalinists under Lin and Stalin and have seen it off and on under Putin for over two decades, so really the culture of street protest hasn't taken hold and wherever it emerged, Putin crushed it so that it hasn't emerged. but at the same time it has built a very strong combination of nationalism plus capitalism, so, as in the case of the Nazis, it was called nationalist national socialism, in this case it is national capitalism IST, many other countries have done it and many others Strong rulers have done it. particularly in Latin America so this is nationalist this is nationalist capitalism in this system it has opened Russia it has opened the Russian economy but within itself it has opened the Russian economy within itself but it has excluded it from the Western world and that in a certain way because has packaged this in nationalism and painted the rest of the world in particular, why should I say the rest of the world?

I would say that the Western world is an enemy of Russia who wants Russia to reject Melt Away being destroyed, it has LED and that is what Mass leaders do. Mass leaders are demagogues, they all do this. Now he has convinced his country to believe that the entire West wants to divide, so he is leading the Russian people into a civilizational conflict with the West. Actually, I understand this. Line from Roger Kohan's article in the New York Times and that's what seems to be working with much of his support. Q. One more important thing is that today it is a polarized world, so the Western world has one view about Russia.

China has another view on Russia India in this situation India in this situation has qualified its position because India also has a very important old relationship with Russia, how important it is. I can't do any better than remind you of something that Prime Minister Modi said in 2014 during the Brick Summit during the Brick Summit in Brazil in his first bilateral meeting with Wladimir Putin, he said and I quote Prime Minister Modi, even a child in the India, if you ask who is India's best friend, you will say Russia, because Russia has been with India in times of In times of crisis, Russia has a very special position in India and that is what explains the view so nuanced view that India has of the conflict and also of Putin's policy.

The other thing that is happening is that many of the casualties in your Armed Forces are heavy and I will give you some details: the casualties are heavy in Ukraine, but not all of them are coming from the regions of Moscow and St. Petersburg where the Russian elites live, but rather who come from regions distant from minorities. In fact, if I look at the casualty analysis, it seems that the largest group dying in Ukraine are not Russian professional soldiers, that's about 20%, a little more than that 23%, 24% are inmates, in fact, yes I look at the estimates and there is an article in The Economist that I share with you, they are based on estimates from various organizations that collect it from obituaries in Russian media or from telephone conversations with families, etc., so this is considered conservative.

They calculate the deaths. They are not victims because casualties mean injuries. They also estimate that the deaths range between 55,000 and 80,000, of which approximately 23% of the inmates, most of them had been enlisted by the Wagner mercenary group and we all know what happened to Pran and the future of His group in this timing is uncertain, but they are creating enough actions or carrying out enough actions in Africa to raise, build or actually increase the threat of refugees or migrants to Europe, so Putin works at several levels and is operating through of the Wagner group. and other and other units in Syria in Libya in other parts of Africa, in fact, much of the selling region now their people are operating and those countries are disintegrating and the way this works is that as those countries they disintegrate, they drive to the shelter, they expel the refugees and the refugees leave, they don't come to Russia, they go to Europe and that then becomes an indirect threat to Europe.

In fact, I may be underestimating this by calling it an indirect threat, it actually becomes a direct threat. because in one country after another in Europe because the resistance or anger towards these immigrants is growing because they are not, they are not assimilating into this in the local society, most of them are also of the Islamic faith of the very conservative current, They do not conform, no We do not settle in European environments. We have seen this happen in Sweden. We have seen this happen in Finland. Denmark everywhere and that is why in country after country, Italy for example, the left is now losing and the right is coming to power and Putin sees the rise of the right in Europe as a positive thing for him.

In fact, even in his speech and in his statement he said that when he was asked about the quality of his own democracy, he said that this is a good democracy. American democracy is bad and it refers to what he sees As Americans use state power against Donald Trump, he sees Donald Trump as a kind of ally and we can see why, because Donald Trump has said that if he comes to power , first of all, he will, he says, he says in The first day he calls a room for the war in Ukraine, what that means is he's going to tell Zalinski if Zinski is still there and Putin and Putin would probably still be there to stop the war where you are and we will see, we will start negotiating from HereYes, that's his idea, his idea is not to immediately start giving more weapons to Zinsky and Ukraine so they can continue fighting.

In fact, it is the Republicans in the US Congress who have blocked US aid to Ukraine and that is why Ukraine is now so short of ammunition and new weaponry that they have been waiting for, so there is a stalemate there, so look how this is working for Putin. American democracy has paralyzed the supply or resupply of American weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, while its own democracy, in quotes, has given it another six. years in power unquestionably even more unquestionably than before and within an even higher percentage of votes, so he is using what we could call the strength of classical democracies where voting is not unilateral.

He is using that force of classical democracies, that philosophical force of classical democracies. Democracies as a strategypower for itself and at the same time What will be seen by observers of conventional democracy as a false democracy in its own country as a strategic force for itself, that is the great change that has taken place in Russia with these elections now and that is what and that is what his statements have indicated, in fact another of the things he said after winning was that they asked him if there can be a war with NATO so he said that these days it cannot be rule out such a thing and also made reference to Macron because Macron has made some very direct statements.

He was about to say aggressive but I stopped myself because aggressive sounds like he's going to launch a war. No more than saying that we cannot let Putin win. This will be a defeat for NATO. a defeat for Europe at one point he even said that NATO troops in Ukraine the possibility of having NATO troops cannot be ruled out again Putin has said look, these things are very dangerous because that will take us very, very close of the First World War. referred to Ukraine in his victory speech, he said that we have to carry out the tasks in the context of the special military operation, so in fact he is responding to Macron and saying that President Macron has a chance, but that it is not to launch a war or aggravate things that he has the opportunity to achieve peace, bring peace and negotiations, so there is a quote from Putin translated from Russian that I am reading to you and I quote, it is clear to everyone that This will be one step away from achieving a large-scale world.

The first war, that is, if NATO troops enter Ukraine, I think almost no one is interested in this. It looks like France could play a role. All is not lost and that is a role to achieve negotiations and then says that we are in favor of peace. we want negotiations, but not only because the enemy is running out of bullets, so through peace talks the enemy in this case Ukraine buys 1.5 and a half or two years of peace, says that and then rearms and fights again and then more statements of that type. It comes from Putin in the same way that he says no matter who or how much they want to intimidate us no matter who or how much they want to repress us suppress our will our Consciousness no one has achieved something like this in history it has it it has not worked, it has not worked now and it will not work in the future the future.

Don't ever think now about Putin's old story and see where he comes from and at what age in 1989 he was a KGB colonel in Dresden, Germany, in East Germany. in East Germany he was in Dron in 1989 when he was just a colonel and then he was very upset because the Soviet Union disintegrated. In fact, in his 2005 speech, in his big speech of 2005, he said that the breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest tragedy in history. Later, the 20th century even said that the same virus of rupture is now also affecting Russia, that was when the fights came in Georgia, Chia, etc., they were two wars, two long bosses in cha, not the chesa, the great boss, a chin, the great boss is his great chapu, he is a great. chamcha, his militia is also fighting alongside his troops and his is like a rented army from Putin, so he fought two long wars in a very bloody war in Georgia because he was not going to accept any more disintegrations of Russia, if anything, It's an irid. dentist who wanted to take back Russian territories and so in 2014 he went and annexed Crimea and the ease with which he was able to take Crimea perhaps emboldened him or encouraged him to launch a full-blown war more than two years ago.

Two years ago, except he forgot that all strong men make these miscalculations because no one around them can tell them they're making a mistake. He forgot to point out that this whole VI for 8 years since 2014, Ukraine had been preparing to be invaded and they had already succeeded. quite a bit of NATO and American equipment and they had both defensive equipment, equipment to defend themselves, but also tactical, strategic and military understanding, education and training to be able to stop the Russian advance as we are as we speak right now, the Russians. The advance is stalled, they have made small gains in the eastern sector, a village here, a village there, so definitely Zelinski's counteroffensive last year failed, the Russian counteroffensive failed, both counteroffensives failed, and as we said in a previous episode cut the Clutter now. now it is a competition of who can defend themselves better it is in that situation that Putin now thinks he has the lasting power that can outlast the Ukrainians because at some point the Ukrainians are a much smaller country because they have also suffered a lot casually zinsky formally said that Your country has lost the lives of 31,000 soldiers, the American agency CIA, Department of Defense, in reality calculates that these deaths, not casualties, are considerably higher, they could place them in the same stage that economists estimate of the Russian casualties, although although Once again, if we go back to the DOD, the US Department of Defense and the CIA, they calculate that the deaths in Russia are higher;

However, for a country with a population of just over four million, about 1/3 of Russia's population, this is a very high number of deaths now if Ukrainians do not receive that pipeline, the eighth pipeline flowing from the American side, it would seem to Putin that he is winning only because he has lasting power and if you see some of the writings that they say about Zakaria lately, those writings are now raising the alarm that Putin is actually in a situation where could win this war, so 1989 the KGB colonel comes back because he's angry, he's upset because the Soviet Union is disintegrating, so he comes back and joins, he starts doing politics, he joins politics in St.

Petersburg, where he becomes prominent very quickly. He is still in his early 40's, he was born in 1952, in fact he is only 4041 at that time that is when Yelen realizes that Yelen realizes that Yelen needs strong people around him so 199 3 returns to the age of 41 and begins to do politics and joins politics in St. Petersburg, Yelen soon became aware of him in 1998, at the age of only 46 years. At the age of 46, he was appointed director of the Federal Security Bureau of the FSB, which is the successor organization of the former KGB, famous or famous, or famous or famous for the INF, at the age of 46. becomes head of the FSB the following year as Yelen is weakening and his health also worsens yelen appoints him prime minister December 31 of the same year yelon resigns and Putin becomes active prime minister 2000 assumes the presidency for the first time and then he wins the election 53% of the vote like I told you and then he goes on and then he goes on from there and I told you his percentage of the vote keeps going up.

See this graph on your screen when I use it for the first time in 2020. I said The Rise and Rise of Vladimir Putin now I've updated the graph so I'm calling it The Rise and Rise and the Thrice Rise of Vladimir Putin so If you see this graph now you will also see it. I see with every election how his vote percentage has increased, which he did in the meantime, now he had a problem, the problem was that the Russian Constitution of 1993, which was based on the Western pattern that said the president will now be limited, lied to two terms that the president cannot.

Putin didn't like having a third term, so when he was finishing his second term he had to come up with an idea: how can you retire at such a young age? You don't retire at 50 and you're a former president, you're not Obama or Clinton, so you had to think of something, so you thought of your strategy, you named yourself prime minister, there was no impediment for someone to became prime minister after having been president, so he named himself prime minister and named Dimitri Medev as his president. It was then that The Economist published the famous cover story with Putin with the very broad-chested Putin with the portrait of Medway gives in his pocket in his pocket saying "I am the Prime Minister, meet my president, so Med became a convenient president while Putin was running. the government as prime minister because power changes when the man is right the title doesn't matter for 2012 he said okay I have been president for two terms I have been prime minister for one term now the Constitution only prevents you from becoming president for two consecutive terms, there is no impediment for him to be president again, so now, as a former prime minister or as a sitting prime minister, he contested, in quotes, the candidacy for president, but at the same time he made amendments to give the president a mandate of six years. emerged in 2018 once again, won a term at that time until 2024 and what did it do: introduced another amendment, another series of surprising amendments to its Constitution that, in addition to banning gay rights, etc., one of the things that did was reset the clock they reset the presidential clock, which means that while you could say that you cannot have a third consecutive term, that law or that limitation now only comes into effect starting in 2024, so now constitutionally, not theoretically, constitutionally it was challenged now that he has a mandate and can compete for one more term in 2030 until 2036 and who knows if he feels fit enough and strong enough and if he feels like he has nowhere else to go or nothing else to do.

I can't go home and play. golf or I can't live off a daa, I could modify his Constitution again, this is how Peret is perpetuating his government like almost no one has done now. The important thing here is, and I will share with you one more story from The Economist, the most surprising. what happened in Russia and what has really worked for Putin is how well Russia's economy has done, so everyone had said that with the sanctions war their economy would collapse, that didn't happen initially, there was some recession in 2022, since then there has been a big recovery last. year had a growth rate of 3% this year official estimates Estimates from international agencies are around 2% 1.7% but the economist also says that what seems too pessimistic seems that its economy will grow more in part because it has made a lot of spending partly also because the great pending military-industrial complex is taking place because a war also leads to a lot of consumption.

They have increased their salaries. Their armed forces' AR salaries have increased. The salaries of his armed forces have increased. Economic management has been good. The Central Bank has doubled interest rates, which has helped control inflation. It was 7.5%. Last year it was approximately 123%. We featured this in an episode of Kutak Clutter. It is currently at 7.5% and estimates are that it will be so. get down to 4% its overall economy is not big its overall economy is still about half of India's economy the total size of its GDP of course with a much smaller population and a population that is a little less than a tenth of India's population but still, if you compare this with America, America's economy is more than 14 times bigger than Russia's.

France's economy is 1.8 times larger than Russia's, but in Russia the important thing is that the elites are very happy. The elites are happy, the markets are not doing badly. In any case, this year, the same Economist article tells us that the Moscow Stock Exchange will see 20 IPOs, the launch of 20 IPOs again, what worked for him is the removal of sanctions because, again, what What worked for him is the elimination of sanctions, so many of the companies that existed before, Western companies, have been absorbed by local administrations, for example, Starbucks is now running as a star and I because people drink coffee, people drink Cola, so this has emerged under other brands, all that has worked, all that removal of sanctions has worked and Then, oil exports, of course, he exports oil, a large amount comes, for example, to India, where Indian refineries can convert this into finished petroleum products and those can even be exported to Europe.

All of this has allowed him to really fix it. its economy and therefore the level of dissatisfaction in its population is not what it could have been if it had beencaused an economic collapse