How to Defuse the Overpopulation Bomb

Hey guys, Joe here. I've been thinking... if you sang happy birthday to every person born today, you'd be singing for almost six and a half weeks non-stop. That means adding 386,000 more birthday cakes and human beings every day. It is estimated that 1 in every 15 humans born is alive right now. When I was a child, there were only 5 billion of us, but now the Earth is home to 7.6 billion people. And some people are worried about what will happen if things continue at this pace. Space is not the problem. If we all lived as densely as the people of Manhattan, every human being could fit inside Norway, with a fjord or two to spare.

But the true footprint of our species is much, MUCH larger. For many, current climate and ecological imbalances are proof that there are simply too many people on this planet. But are there really any? WHAT IS

overpopulation

? And how did it come to be like this? No one really asked these questions until recently, because for tens of thousands of years, the number of our species was only in the millions. But around the year 1800 or so, we finally numbered one billion, and then things really started to change. While it took tens of thousands of years for the human population to reach one billion, it took only 123 years to double that number, and only 47 to double it again.

Since the 1970s, the fifth, sixth and seventh billion have arrived every 12 years. So when does population growth become

overpopulation

? The answer? It depends. Back in 1798, Thomas Malthus warned that uncontrolled population growth would typically outstrip food supplies, leading to mass famines and violent conflicts around the world. Many 20th century environmentalists predicted that the incoming population

bomb

would send shockwaves of disease, poverty, and environmental destruction around the world, basically ruining everything. This has not proven to be the case. Malthus underestimated humanity's ability to increase the Earth's capacity using good science. But one thing is certain: the way we feed 7 billion people today will not scale to feed 10 billion tomorrow.

I don't know if you've noticed, but in many parts of the world there is too much food. Maybe we're not getting it where it needs to be, because we let the imaginary lines on the maps set too many rules. Much of what we grow does not reach our stomachs. One third of the crops are used to feed livestock. Animals raised for human consumption occupy 80% of the Earth's agricultural land, but provide only 20% of our calories. Beef alone requires ten times more land per unit of protein than produce, grains, and even eggs. So far we've been able to increase food production, but there is SOME upper limit to how many people the Earth can feed, no matter how we grow it, and we can't exactly eat the moon.

But what makes populations grow or not grow? The reality for most of history was that many children would die before they were adults, so it would be better to have many. Many births balanced with many deaths kept populations low but stable for a long time. But beginning in the 18th century, advances in agriculture and transportation meant that fewer people died of hunger. Later, during the Industrial Revolution, economic and public health advances resulted in fewer diseases and higher standards of living. Death rates decreased, but old habits die hard, so people continued to have many babies, leading to rapid population growth.

Over time, people realized that more children would survive, and as education and opportunities for women improved, families began to have fewer children and population growth slowed. Over time, when birth and death rates remain low, populations level off and stabilize, or even begin to decline. Things had gotten a lot better for a lot of people...whether they lived in Europe or North America. Not all countries go through these demographic transitions at the same time, so while population growth was slowing or coming to an end in many developed countries, elsewhere it was simply picking up. But developing nations are moving more quickly through these transitions.

It took the UK 95 years to halve birth rates, while Brazil did so in 26 and Iran only 10. Today, birth rates are falling almost everywhere. The less time a country spends in stages of rapid growth, the faster the Earth's population stops increasing. It is unlikely that the 12 billionth human being will ever be born. And by 2100 our population will probably peak at between 9 billion and 12 billion. Instead of one big demographic

bomb

, the current challenge is to

defuse

a few demographic “cluster bombs” in parts of the developing world. There are two great ways to achieve this. Increasing women's access to education is the most effective way to reduce birth rates.

Improves children's health and leads to better family planning. Empowering women leads to slower population growth. This alone could reduce greenhouse gas emissions as much as all wind energy by 2050. Today, the richest 10% of humans are responsible for almost half of climate emissions, while half The poorest people are only responsible for a tenth of it. Developed nations will have to reduce their impact and meet developing nations in a cleaner environment. Populations cannot grow forever without consequences, but under the right circumstances, populations control themselves. But 10 billion people is still a lot of mouths to feed, and doing so without ruining nature or anything like that won't be easy.

But it is not impossible, and it will not take an army of apocalyptic robots to forcefully control the population to achieve it. While history has taught us that population growth has natural checks and balances, we have yet to find a limit when it comes to creating new ways of living. Stay curious.