How could a war between China and Taiwan play out? | Four Corners

this program contains language from the course the chinese soldiers sing they will defend the motherland to the death the message is clear the People's Liberation Army is ready for combat and the target is Taiwan China is a force that should not be intimidated if someone threatens China with force, they will In return, tensions over Taiwan are the highest in nearly three decades and

could

result in a broader war in the Pacific. Beijing is preparing for conflict. The Chinese have deployed enormous numbers on a scale never seen before: warships, submarines, fighter jets and nuclear-capable aircraft. bombers, are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?

Yes, President Xi Jinping has warned that China will use force on Taiwan. I think it is somewhat inevitable that China will use limited force against Taiwan in the next three or

four

years. The big problem. is whether we will see a secondary war and if war breaks out, the Americans will need Australia. The United States is operating under the assumption that Australia would join its Coalition of people willing to defend Taiwan. The Australian people should not even think about sending their sons and daughters to fight. For Taiwan separatism in

four

corners

, we examine China's endgame and how any invasion of Taiwan can trigger a bloody regional conflict with casualties on a scale not seen since World War II.

We reveal how the United States is quietly building up its military assets here in Northern Australia, including plans to deploy nuclear-capable B-52 bombers, taking us deeper into any future conflict. It's just after dawn. Atop Australia, a platoon of US Marines is awaiting orders to begin their final assault. There is a quiet tension amidst the dust and buildings. heat, he'll check on us and make sure we're not moving too fast while they prepare to leave. The marines are joined by two Australian tanks. They are moving the tanks. Good, you sound good. The Marines are

play

ing war and the enemy in this exercise.

It is a group of Australian soldiers hidden deep in the bush. There is a very old quote that says that iron sharpens iron. One man sharpens another. So we are fighting against ourselves and we discover that this sets the conditions for us to succeed. We believe. on the next Battlefield, okay sir Colonel Christopher Steele is the commanding officer of the US Marines who have come to Darwin this year as part of an annual deployment. It

could

be that this terrain has more importance than what he is observing from behind the front line. We have definitely faced some Massive Resistance resistance that we did not expect, to be honest with you, as we push the South through this bottleneck.

I think they know their own territory very well. It is a continuation of a series of exercises we have partnered with the Australian Army on over the past six months. Sergeant Anthony Richardson is leading today's attack. We have been here for about 8 or 9 days. I think my boys are strong enough to build hell, no matter what. This is a rehearsal for war. As China's military build-up has intensified over the past decade, Americans have become more dependent on Australia (see that tan line right there) and the number of US Marines coming to Darwin each year has multiplied. by ten to more than 2,000.

It's being ready when called no matter the threat, no matter the circumstances, no matter the environment and that's why we're here, it's US Marines and Australian tanks attacking as one, to be ready for battle they need to fight as a single force, drink water, come on, hey. everyone that we partner with in each Echelon, so the ability for a United States Marine Corps engineer squadron to go and provide direct support to an Australian rifle company and really exchange that capability is something that we look forward to and In fact, make this deeper and deeper into the US and the Australian Alliance will be called upon if China acts against Taiwan.

Are you ready to fight together again? They spend all their time preparing Decades of rivalry between Beijing and Washington Could erupt over Taiwan The main island is located less than 180 kilometers from the southern coast of China for Beijing Taiwan would be an important strategic prize that would give it access beyond the so-called first island chain and into the wider Pacific once they gain control of Taiwan, which frees up their military to push in other areas and also allows them to project power further into what we call the second island chain or the waters of the Pacific and compete with the United States.

There too Taiwan is part of China and there is only one China in the world and China is in the process of achieving reunification and the reunification of China is an integral part of China's rejuvenation. Chinese President Xi Jinping has made the recovery of Taiwan a central pillar task of his leadership at the recent Communist Party Congress and reaffirmed that China wants Taiwan to return to Beijing. Taiwan is a breakaway province that represents unfinished business in the state of Separation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait actually has its origin in the Civil War in 1949 which led to the founding of the People's Republic of China in mainland China and the flight from mainland China to Taiwan by the Nationalist government at the time, by What the actual legal status of cross-Strait relations is the inconclusive Civil War In recent months tensions over Taiwan took a dangerous turn when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island immediately after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan aimed at inciting separatism and Taiwan's independence from China, the Chinese military carried out an unprecedented visit Large-scale military exercises and routine military exercises that literally exercise a full control over the Taiwan Strait, as well as the maritime region surrounding Taiwan.

We have seen the most aggressive direct military pressure in terms of the number of reconnaissance fighters on their intelligence gathering aircraft and warships. at sea they have never done it before on that scale and I think Xi Jinping is showing that I have a much better military capability than you Taiwanese and he is saying this is what I can do, which has fueled speculation that Beijing could Act. against Taiwan earlier than previously planned, the time frame for an attack on Taiwan would put it between 2025 and 2027 and this largely depends on when I think the Chinese leadership and in particular Xi Jinping can trust that their military can do this. could happen if China invaded Taiwan in a Washington DC conference room military analysts conduct a war game to examine how the conflict might

play

out.

They normally do this in secret, but as tensions rise they have made it public in hopes of deterring all sides from the war game. that we conducted is really the only operational type of wargaming that is available to the public when we did it to encourage discussion about the risks and opportunities involved in such a conflict and the preparation for such a conflict, the ships, the planes and the troops move aboard Chinese forces. They are red The United States and its allies failed in the war game it is 2026 and China has begun its invasion Beijing's first move is to launch a barrage of ballistic missiles that destroy much of Taiwan's Navy and Air Force at the same time that China launches a preemptive strike against US forces in the region attack US ships in the Pacific and attack US bases in Japan and Guam.

A matter of the initial attacks put the United States in the fourth quarter. Lose many ships and planes immediately. China's amphibious fleet crosses Taiwan Strait, US strikes back. Chinese troops trying to establish a foothold in less fortified southern Taiwan come under heavy fire. The most effective American asset was long-range bombers with cruise and precision missiles. Guidance, the bombers could be based out of missile range. and still fly and attack the Chinese, this is likely to continue for weeks, if not months, or longer, and as long as that happens, there will be continued fighting and loss of life, not just for the United States and its allies. and partners and China, but also on the ground in Taiwan, with some of the civilians who are going to suffer the most from this conflict, this would be at levels that we have not seen since the Second World War and it is quite disheartening for us to think about that.

The loss of ships, aircraft and troops would be equally disheartening. The United States and its allies lose up to 900 aircraft and up to 30 warships, including two aircraft carriers. It also comes at a great cost to the Chinese: they lose dozens of ships and planes, and in the pessimistic results for them they lose many prisoners of war as the Taiwanese destroy their beachhead over time this war game ends with the Chinese being expelled. Of Taiwan both sides are left with ultimately devastating losses, if China is to advance on Taiwan, it will do so based on the belief that the PLA can prevail.

I think they can do it, but the most important thing is that they believe they can do it and this is what will really determine whether or not they start a conflict over Taiwan Street. They have heard great levels of Confidence in the Chinese military and this is relatively new in 15 years. I would ask the Chinese military if they could do this and the answer was no, so for the first time in late 2020 they are starting to say yes. I think that is an important message that we should pay attention to. China has signaled that its military is fully prepared and battle-ready to keep the public on its side.

The PLA broadcasts a constant stream of propaganda videos. China has grown its military from a rather rusty Soviet state. era strength in the mid-1990s to being one of the most powerful militaries in the world, perhaps the second most powerful military in the world and one optimized to prevent the United States from projecting military power in Asia. It has achieved this through stellar investments in military modernization over 25 years. The defense budget has more than doubled in the last decade. The Pla has built the largest navy in the world. I have had difficulties when it comes to developing modern, maneuverable aircraft and training pilots who could compete with American pilots in the air.

Most simulations would show, for example, that, by inheriting air combat, the United States can shoot down 13 planes for every US plane it shoots down. It is China's missiles that pose the greatest threat in any conflict over Taiwan last. Pentagon report estimates that the PLA has around two thousand five hundred short-, intermediate- and long-range ballistic missiles capable of destroying US bases. In the Pacific, China's strategic rocket force has the most advanced ballistic and cruise program in the world. , not only advanced in terms of technology but also in terms of numbers, they simply have more munitions than the United States can defend against China's ability to attack or Targeting US aircraft carriers to attack US bases in the region is important and the United States It has access to missile defense, but those are easily saturated.

In terms of the number of missiles China fires, some of them will definitely pierce one. One of China's main targets is Guam, the US territory will be vital in any conflict over Taiwan as a long-standing base for foreign bombers, submarines and warships. The Air Force ERS released this video showing nuclear-capable bombers unleashing a simulated attack on what appears to be Guam's Anderson. Guam Air Base is simultaneously rising as a key node in US military operations in Asia, but is also increasingly at risk from Chinese missile forces. The United States is seeking to distribute its operational locations for air activity, including bomber activity, more broadly across the Indo-Pacific.

The United States no longer permanently bases its lethal bomber fleet on Guam. Instead, the Americans want the plane to be operationally unpredictable; In other words, it is more difficult for the enemy to find an attack. Guam has a huge target on its back, being the center of operations it once was because currently, due to some of China's missile capabilities, it is quite threatened. The United States has to take out an insurance policy because many of its forward military bases in places like the island of Guam, near Japan and elsewhere in the region, are moving much closer. to Chinese military strike capabilities in terms of conventional warfare.

Northern Australia is beyond that range for China today. The north ofAustralia in the new geopolitical environment has suddenly become much more strategically important, if not crucial, to the United States and to ourselves. Australia is now foreign. The part of that strategy, fundamental to the US strategy in the Pacific, was outlined by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin last year. I am proud of the breadth and depth of our alliance, which is strengthening and today we support important posturing initiatives. that will expand our access and presence in Australia we agreed to take immediate steps to improve interoperability through deeper integration overseas Driving south of Darwin is a facility that is increasingly important to the US Alliance Australia we are in On the way to Tyndall Air Force Base we are A $1.6 billion upgrade is underway.

The raft is rapidly becoming one of northern Australia's most important operational air bases, from which both Australia and the United States will conduct high-level military operations in the Indo-Pacific since the upgrade was announced. There has been speculation about what role Tyndall would play for the United States and whether it would house America's most strategically important bombers. Is the Australian government in negotiations? Well, I don't get into those kinds of topics in the press at conferences like this, but what I can say is that we are equipping these facilities to be able to take full advantage of the relationships we have with our alliance partners.

We now know that preparations are underway for the United States to deploy up to six B-52 bombers to the Northern Territory. These plans to house nuclear-capable aircraft on top have not been announced and were only discovered by Four Corners in US tender documents. The documents show that the US Department of Defense is planning build an aircraft parking deck to accommodate six B-52s at Tyndall, in addition, there are detailed designs for the construction of the United States Air Force Squadron operations facilities and maintenance center at the base, these are to support B-52 squadrons deployed for training missions during the Northern Territory dry season overseas.

The US Air Force is also building its own fuel storage tanks and an ammunition bunker. The US military has confirmed the construction program and told Four Corners that the ability to deploy US Air Force bombers to Australia sends a strong message to adversaries about our ability to project power lethal airborne B-52s located in the Indo-Pacific could be a very strong deterrent signal. The B-52s are nuclear capable bombers and therefore have greater strategic importance, so having them located in Australia does not necessarily say that they would be equipped with nuclear capability, but having the ambiguity of whether they could or wanted to have it could be a very strong deterrent signal.

It is a major expansion of Australian commitment to the US war plan with China. It is assigned to the Chinese and we are willing to do it. be the tip of the spear to provide a base not only for the US Marines but, more importantly, for their long-range power projection of heavy bombers, it is very difficult to think of a more open commitment that we can send a more open signal to the Chinese that We agree with American plans for a war with China to support bombers and other military aircraft. The United States plans to spend about $1 billion in northern Australia.

This includes 11 giant jet fuel storage tanks in Darwin. This would allow the United States. carrying out operations from Australia that happen to have a much greater range and having that already there means that Australia can therefore become a refueling center for American aircraft, which would reduce their need to return to the United States continental or to other bases in the region. that could be closer to possible Chinese attacks if war breaks out it will be Total War I don't think by providing air bases in the northern part of Australia it will save Australia Victor GAO is one of the few Chinese insiders who is allowed to speak For foreign media, they must be fully aware of what China means.

China is a force that should not be intimidated. If anyone threatens China with Force, they will be punished by force in return. So what could closer cooperation with the United States mean for Australia? In a separate war game, military analyst Becca Wassa and her team explored the risks Australia could face by joining the US in a fight over Taiwan. In a potential conflict with China over Taiwan, there is a chance that Australia could become a target, especially if Australia were to do so. Join the fight directly or provide additional access and overflight fees to US forces conducting attacks against Chinese forces in this war game.

US planes fly from Australian bases to attack the Chinese, immediately putting Darwin and RAF Tyndall in the crosshairs with China launching long-range missiles. range missiles towards military targets in northern Australia, the goal is to destroy runways and fuel tanks, ultimately these attacks were unsuccessful due to the long range required and because China had already expended its advanced, long-range missiles more capable at the beginning of the game. but who is to say that in the future China might have a more advanced missile capability that would be better suited to potentially attack Australia or whether its attacks would be successful?

We are traveling to one of the most secret military sites in Australia, it will be essential for this. United States in any conflict with China About 28 kilometers from Alice Springs is the Pine Gap spy base and we are told it is expanding. Jointly run by the US and Australian intelligence agencies, operations here have always been strictly guarded under these golf ball-like domes. It has powerful antennas that eavesdrop on foreign satellites and detect foreign missile launchers. It is an enormously powerful capability outside the United States. It is the most powerful intelligence gathering facility the United States has anywhere.

Pine Gap has long been the focus of protests over US bases in Australia. The women are here because they believe Pine Gap is a first-strike nuclear target. Panga, whether Chinese or Russian facilities, can tell in exquisite detail the silos and ballistic missiles that both Russia and China have. Paul Deeb is a former head of Defense intelligence and held a senior security clearance at Pine Gap for 30 years. Do I think Pine Gap would be a target for China in the event of a serious military crisis if it appeared that crisis was becoming nuclear? China might want to eliminate uh pan Gap. as the ears and eyes of the United States' ability to know precisely what nuclear capabilities and where the Chinese and, in any case, the Russians, including the Soviet Union, do not have them, based on my experience over the last 40 years , they have had Pine Gap as a very important nuclear center.

Head to all the Central Australian natives that grow here. It's very peaceful. It is a great refuge. Kieran Fanain is a long-time resident of Alice Springs. His latest book is about Pine Gap. We definitely know from the city that there is a huge expansion of infrastructure there and I have If that was confirmed by the authorities, it was described as something of a mid-life upgrade for the old foreign land through oh yes, yes, the fact That it is out of sight, out of mind really helps keep it out of most people's Consciousness most of the time and therefore any questions that may arise or that do not need to be resolved. , I have lived here for almost three decades before taking one of the routes to a vantage point where you could see them in the landscape, they are quite steep hills in reasonably remote places that you need to climb to be able to see them in the landscape and get an idea of your very real presence here and what it means to us.

This is the closest we can get to Pine Gap I. I mean maybe we could go a little further, but I think so, not much further before we reach the limit and what would happen to us if we kept going. You potentially face seven years in prison. Kieran Fanaine wants more people to know what. happens on this joint US-Australia base, do you think people understand what this place is used for? It's called a spy base. However, I always use the term military base because what we have realized is that surveillance is sent directly to the military. operations is a bit of a military base, there are changes all over Pine Gap all the time, this is one of the most important as at the moment Melbourne academic and peace activist Richard Tanter has dedicated his career to discovering the secrets of spy base 2022. this is June 22, July 22, August 22, I think August 8, this is October, you have now documented the replacement and upgrade of a crucial antenna used to listen to the Russian and Chinese satellites.

You can see the old antenna being uncovered and removed here. A new antenna was put in here, the cover was replaced, so during that three and a half month period, almost in real time, we can see that a very important part of the pines works particularly in relation to the expansion of China. China has certainly known this in the past five years, particularly in The past three years have undoubtedly become the main focus of the pain gap monthly and weekly task schedules for satellites connected to Pine Gap China. I think it's not just the main focus now.

I'm pretty sure that electronic order of battle was looking for. searching for Chinese missile sites to food, searching for Chinese command sites on a preparatory basis is absolutely a high priority in Pine Gap now, but after 2015 and evidence was discovered that Pine Gap is growing. This is a graph of antennas at Pine Gap over a 50 year period. period This is a rough measure of the growth in size and capacity of Pine Gap when we did our main antenna study in 2015 we counted 33 antennas there, in the most recent survey we are about to publish we have counted 45 so that's a big leap in seven years and although there is not only an increase in the number of antennas but the type of antennas has changed the capabilities of those antennas and the systems associated with them, this indicates the extraordinary importance and growing importance to the United States . until a possible war with China, which hosts probably the most important US intelligence base in the world, is a signal to China that Australia is fully committed to the US version of relations with China, which are not good for the Chinese, especially as it carries a role in the existential nuclear threat to China, they will not forget that if Australia wants to give up all its economic interests with China and always embrace the United States in hostilities against China, then I am afraid that Australia will be treated in the same way.

Given that China will deal with the United States if war breaks out between these two countries in Australia's tropical north, any threat posed by China seems a world away, many here are reaping the benefits of Australia's closer relations with the United States. United in Darwin, business is booming, the military is pumping billions of dollars into the economy of our economy Darwin is a garrison town and has been a coastal city so there is a lot of money coming into the economy last month . The Air Forces of 17 countries conducted exercises across northern Australia showcasing their Cruiser air power. here they organized a flyby of Darwin in a very public spectacle of working together, people just stormed out of the middle parts to have a look at the different planes because there were a variety of planes from different nations, from Germany, Japan, Indonesia, United States United, people loved it.

I just loved it, that shows a lot about the support that this type of exercise has and how people support the Defense Forces here in Darwin, not only are there doubts, but in Catherine and everywhere in the territory, let's take a look. what we have here if it's yes, it says it's American, yes and yes. George Phillips American Preble American pla Navy, which is the Chinese Navy, the USS Denver has the tie, we have Indonesia, so you have all the different countries coming to Darwin. he comes in and says hello, but that shows you exactly where Darwin sits and what he means to Australia's defence.

How do you feel about the broader defense buildup taking place across the Northern Territory? What you see hereIt makes me feel more comfortable. I don't feel abandoned. I don't feel excluded without any support. I know that if something goes wrong at least someone will be here to defend our country every year before we return home. The US Marines take on the local rugby team, the Darwin Stray Cats. It's a little bit about rugby and a lot about all of you and how much we appreciate this partnership and you welcome us to Darwin every year, so thank you, thank you sir, okay, so we're covering the ball, we're ready to go.

The Marines are still learning the rules of the game, so Will will come here and try to blow this up, crouch down and use the body of the ball carrier, come back and you won't move from that position, okay? Are we yelling at the Marine Corps three one two three? What we do is inherently challenging, but it's much easier when you have Australian military personnel at your side helping you solve the problem and I've never received a female welcome like I've received here in the Northern Territory, so we really feel like part of the family here.

Oh yeah, I don't really understand rugby, but I think it was good, we will see a much larger number of US military personnel stationed in Australia. It will include personnel from all three services, Navy, Air Force and Army, as well as the Marines in Darwin, which will likely be expanded, so this is really the beginning. This is the beginning. Australia is now a much bigger target. This has prompted an urgent review. of our defense capabilities and, by the way, I hope that in this new strategic defense review we will be more serious when it comes to projecting a serious long-range missile strike capability.

We need many more long-range conventional strike weapons. Anti-ship missiles. Air-to-air missiles. and air-to-surface missiles, we can develop that capability that already exists and we have some of them, but in very small quantities, but I say it is urgent now, this is not a theoretical potential threat while the drums of war are beating. Australia is on par with the United States in a dangerous and unstable region. I don't think war is inevitable, but the United States and its allies and partners must take the threat seriously enough to make significant changes that deter China from what we are currently doing.

Having them implemented militarily and economically is not enough to convince Xi Jinping that it is not worth it. I think the current environment is the most dangerous I have ever seen. That's a great question. I've had a long life: the Cold War. It was very dangerous and it was not just the Cuban missile crisis, the 1983 crisis in Europe was much more dangerous, but that was the other side of the world in terms of this part of the world, this is the most dangerous situation I have ever experienced. if Australia wants to enter a war that could lead to Armageddon.

Think about the consequences. I really don't want to express those consequences in front of your audience.