How A Nuclear War Will Start - Minute by Minute

Mr. president! Nuclear missiles

will

reach our country in 14

minute

s. I know it's your first day in office, so I'll explain, but you're the only one who can authorize our

nuclear

retaliation in response, and you only have a few

minute

s to make a decision! As you know, tensions have risen rapidly in recent days. Today's joint allied air defense exercise began just minutes before we detected the launch. Perhaps it is a simple misunderstanding. We assume that the sudden attack is aimed at neutralizing as much of our

nuclear

forces as possible. But that doesn't matter anymore: there are missiles in the air and we can't shoot them all down.

Because? Because ICBMs are basically rockets launched into space before re-entering the atmosphere above their target and releasing many different warheads. Higher and faster than anything you can send after them. We need to get you to the bunker! Here's what we know: Four minutes ago, our new infrared monitoring satellites detected one hundred and twelve bursts consistent with ICBM launches from enemy internal territories.   For some reason, only 20 of its 80 underground nuclear silos appear to have fired, so we suspect most of them were transporter-erector launchers, you know: trucks with big missiles. It is not clear why they did not use all their silos: they may simply not work after more than thirty years or they may be keeping them in reserve.

The fog of war keeps many things confusing! Aerospace Command believes ICBMs are targeting our nuclear command centers, silos, and important air force and navy bases, ending this war before we have a chance to act! The enemy's strategic doctrine prioritizes military objectives and our nuclear weapons systems, but its secondary objectives are our industry and our infrastructure: oil refineries, power plants and deep-water ports. All located near or in major population centers. We

will

not know the exact number of victims for a few weeks. Deaths from explosions and burns today may amount to a few million. It's the morning rush hour and there's not much to do for people stuck in traffic.

People in major metropolitan areas can't really evacuate, but emergency broadcasts are being sent to shelter in place and away from windows. Radiation exposure for intact population centers depends largely on the weather over the next week. We may be looking at tens of millions of deaths by the end of the month. During the next few minutes we will still be able to respond, but... you must decide! We have 1,500 warheads in our silos, bombers and submarines. The 400 in silos must be released now before they are taken out. 46 nuclear-capable bombers on high alert can be ready to take off in 2 minutes, although we must transmit the order now to get them out of the blast radius if you want to consider using them.

Of our 14 nuclear submarines, five are currently at sea. While submerged they are undetectable, so that is our backup for nuclear retaliation if we lose our silos and bombers. We could try using them to bombard their remaining silo fields before they can launch them. The sooner you commit, the better chance we have of avoiding further exchange after our retaliation. Updates! We have radar confirmation that enemy ICBMs have completed their burn and deployed their warheads. Our best guess is that each missile will deploy at least 6 reentry vehicles, about 600 in total, which is the part that carries a warhead back into the atmosphere during its terminal descent toward the target, and with many more decoys on top. that, inflatable balloons destined to waste any anti-missiles.  We are now tracking almost 4,000 potential targets.

Our anti-ballistic missiles have been launched and will begin intercepting them in another minute. We will do everything we can to protect the capital, although in reality there is no defense. Wait... confirming a partial radar blackout, our systems appear to be faulty. The enemy must have anticipated that we would launch our interceptors and pre-detonated some warheads at high altitude. That ionizes the atmosphere and creates radar interference. Our interceptors should still work fine; They have had a 55% success rate in testing, but never with so many decoys or with such intense radar jamming. We could shoot down 50 objects, but there is no guarantee they will be warheads.

It looks like most of the bombs are going to pass. This is our last chance to fight back.  Our time is over. Our silo launching sequence lasts 5 minutes. We have to transmit and confirm a launch order and the missile needs time to clear the blast radius of the incoming bomb. This is a lot to take in, but the war plan is done, you just need to enter the launch authorization codes and press this button to transmit them! There is nothing more you can do to save more of our people. If you don't launch it now, this war will be over before it even begins;

You understand this is our only chance, right? The effect? Enemy civilian casualties are difficult to estimate, but should be similar to ours: a few million immediately, perhaps a few tens of millions by the end of the month. The full consequences of their attacks and ours could trigger a nuclear winter, which could kill billions of people around the world, but that could happen even if we do not retaliate. I'm sure you have questions but you have to give orders without waiting for answers right now. With an attack of this scale there is no guarantee that communications or assets will be intact within minutes.

We're running out of time, we need a decision, sir. Can we launch? Nuclear wars are not normal wars. They only last a few minutes and, in times of crisis, small conflicts can quickly get out of control. Anything from small communication delays to sensor errors to uncertainty and the fog of war means that no leader will have a full idea of ​​what's happening when a crisis unfolds. When tensions are high, accidents or misunderstandings can lead leaders - even those with good intentions - to launch a nuclear attack.   Confused and with incomplete information, a single person (yes, it's really just ONE person who decides) can literally make decisions that will end civilization and kill hundreds of millions of people in the time it takes to watch a video of Youtube.

This story is fiction, but the world came very close to this several times. In 1995, Russian radar detected a missile launched from a submarine and its nuclear forces were put on high alert, although it was actually a scientific rocket to study the auroras. In 1979, American computers reported a large-scale Soviet attack with only minutes to respond, except it was a training tape that had been improperly loaded onto a computer. In 1983, the Soviet satellite warning system showed five ICBMs launched from the United States. But it was a false alarm caused by sunlight reflecting off the clouds. During the Cuban missile crisis, a Soviet submarine that had no contact with Moscow for several days concluded that a nuclear war had begun and decided to launch a nuclear torpedo.

Luckily, the authorization of three agents was required. One of them, Vasily Arkhipov, opposed it. But what if he hadn't?  Any safeguard can fail, no matter how carefully designed. And right now decisions are being made to build new weapons and missile systems that commit the world to another century of nuclear stagnation, further complicated by the emergence of China as a new nuclear superpower. Simply accepting that the existence of nuclear weapons is inevitable could mean that their use is inevitable. But the world doesn't have to be like this. Even incremental measures, such as dismantling one bomb at a time, will eventually result in a world without any.   During the Cold War, the world had more than 70,000 nuclear weapons;

Thanks to arms reduction treaties, that number now stands at around 12,500. Progress is not guaranteed, but it is not impossible either. Governments and militaries are not separate from their nations, they are part of them, just like you. You have the power to demand from your leaders, and often this

start

s with simply being aware of a problem. If you would like to learn more, we have compiled a number of resources for you in the video description and our sources. This video was supported by Open Philanthropy.  Did you know that there are countless more kurzgesagt videos that we upload to TikTok, Youtube Shorts and Instagram Reels?

Byte-sized information, animated facts, and inspiring thought experiments. After all, you also need videos that you can quickly watch while taking a bathroom break! Our longest and most detailed videos are available here on YouTube. The short version is a completely different challenge that we are trying to do our best. Check them out if you're curious! And if you want to discuss and share your ideas about science with other like-minded people, why not visit our 80,000+ Birb Discord community? We have channels where you can chat about STEM topics, participate in events and the “academic question of the week”… and we have the best emoticons!

After all, we want to spark your curiosity, but it's always more fun to be curious together! See you there!