Elon Musk SpaceX Presentation Leaves Audience SPEECHLESS

When you think about the question of where are the aliens, something I get asked a lot, it's like the FY paradox, where are the aliens? I haven't seen any evidence that there are aliens on Earth, many people think there are aliens on Earth. Earth and I'm cool, I'd like to meet one that you know for a while there when he was getting my green card and everything is an alien registration card. I'm fine, but here's the question of where the aliens are. I think it's very profound because I'm not aware of any evidence of extraterrestrials, which means I think we're probably on our own and if you look at the history of the Earth, how long has the Earth been around assuming physics is correct in the universe? is about 13.8 billion years old The Earth is about 4 and 2 billion years old when you think about how old civilization is.

I think in my opinion the right measuring point for civilization or a good measuring point would be the advent of writing, so the first writings are generally considered to be the ancient Sumerians, where are they now? They became extinct, but about 5,500 years ago it was pre-uniform archaic. In fact, I suggest it's like an interesting rabbit hole to read about the history of writing, so if you consider it, say, "Okay." civilization I think if you don't have writing, you need to write for civilization, which has only existed for a little over 5,000 years of the 4.5 billion years that the Earth has existed and the 13.8 billion years of the universe, so we are all part of human civilization is basically the blink of an eye it's like just a fraction is almost nothing and I think that probably means that Consciousness is incredibly rare and maybe fleeting it may not last long because otherwise I think we would have seen aliens of some kind extraterrestrial signal.

I think the most likely explanation is that Consciousness is so rare that you and Does that Consciousness really extend to another planet? Does that Consciousness extend to another star system? I mean, ultimately, if we were able to become a space-bearing civilization, a multi-planet species, and ultimately a multi-star species and go out and explore all of these star systems. I think we may discover that there are many long-dead single-planet civilizations, and as you may have heard. I say before that we don't want to be one of those boring One Planet civilizations. I mean, we want to be a multi-civilization, ultimately be a multi-stellar civil civilization.

Being there among the stars, as you know, doing science fiction, non-fiction, forever. "To make the Star Trek star real, that's why I think there's a huge urgency in making life multiplanetary because this is the first time in Earth's 4.5 billion year history that it's been possible to extend life or Consciousness beyond the Earth and us." We have to do it while civilization is still strong, so the company's overall goal is to sustainably extend life to another planet. Mars is really the only option and ideally do it before World War 3 or some kind of bad thing, the key is that we need enough people and enough tonnage on Mars so that Mars can survive and continue consciousness even if something were to happen to it. the Earth now.

I still think I'm obviously not talking about AB leaving Earth or anything like that. We want the Earth to be as good as possible for as long as possible, but there are certain things that may be out of our control, so we want to make Mars a self-sustaining civilization as quickly as possible and I believe this can be done in about 20 years and this You know, the gigantic Starship Factory that we're building is obviously key to that and the launch sites that we're building here and on the Cape and elsewhere in the future will be key to that, so let's see that this is the final step. don't go to the survey for Starship flight three can buy two go to stage one go to stage two go flight directors go for launch we have the Li vehicle descending the range the next cute vehicle Super Sonic St separation the house and congratulations guys you did, that's crazy.

I mean, it looks like CGI. It's hard to believe it's an unfiltered video. It's just what the camera saw. No filters, nothing. That's actually what the camera saw. It's crazy. You know, you're doing an amazing job that I think almost no one else does. I thought it would really happen, it's incredible that this strange place, we're basically in a sandpit next to the Rio Grand, near the beach, and it's actually the gateway to Mars, it has to be like this is a movie, no? you would be like no way. Come on, it's implausible, but it's real and it's because of you.

Congratulations. Next to the three flights, you can see that our thrust to weight improved significantly, so we have made tremendous progress from flight one to flight two, to flight three and We have flight four in about a month and with flight four of us should know if destiny smiles on us. We'll go through the high warming regime and crash into the ocean in a controlled location and then hopefully we'll be. We can also do this with the booster landing on an essentially virtual tower. If the landing on the virtual tower with the booster works, then we will try with flight five to come back and land on the tower, which is very much a success-oriented schedule, but it is in the realm of possibility, but I would say What are the chances that we can catch the booster with the mechazilla arms this year.

I guess I don't want to rely on fate, I wouldn't, but I think the odds of actually catching the W booster with the turret are probably like 80 90% this year, which is crazy. Actually, when we first talked about it, it sounded so crazy that we're going to have a giant, he's like Lally, bigger than Mechazilla from this movie. would catch like the largest flying object ever created with mechanical arms in the air, but we're going to do it, yeah, it may not work, you necessarily know that the first time, but you know it's going to work, so really Starship is really the key to making life multiplanetary and preserving the light of the Light of Consciousness, that is what it is all about and may end up being the most important thing we ever do.

I believe that the light of Consciousness is like this, this small candle in a vast darkness. and that candle has only been lit for a very short time and could easily go out, so obviously we want to preserve the small Light of Consciousness on Earth, but extend it to Mars and then ultimately to the rest of the solar system and then start working. to other star systems and I mean, I won't be allowed to see it, but unless it's frozen or something, I know, but, you know, I think at some point we'll discover a lot of civilizations that maybe lasted a million years or two. millions. years or 10 million years, but a civilization that lasted a million years, which would be much longer than our civilization, has lasted only the third decimal point, that is, 13.8 billion or so years, if your civilization It lasts a million years, that's all. the third digit after the decimal point goes up one and that's a million years.

I mean, I would say we should think about how to make civilization last a million years. You know, we often get caught up in the day to day. things, but we want them to have at least a million-year civilization, if not a 100-million-year civilization or a billion-year civilization. It is absolutely crucial to that goal to become a multiple species. People often ask why Mars, well there aren't many options, frankly Venus is it. a super heated high pressure acid bath, no you don't want to go to Venus and then the Moon is nearby but it has no atmosphere, gravity is only one sixth of Earth's and it's a lot of key.

The resources also indicate that the insulating value of the Mars Moon is much lower, so if there is something that destroys the Earth, like say there is a global thermonuclear war of World War III, they will probably drop some nuclear weapons on the Moon , while it is much more difficult to shoot. Nuclear powered Mars and we Mars would see it coming and probably have some time to stop the incoming missiles so the value of Mars, the difficulty or the distance and time required to get to Mars actually has a benefit insulator for the continuation of Consciousness, even if something terrible happens on Earth and then once we go beyond Mars, there will be some asteroids like sarus, some of Jupiter's moons, the spacecraft would be able to reach anywhere of the solar system, then we'll need something, uh. a new level of technology to go to other star systems, but if we can't at least reach Mars, then other star systems are hopeless.

I mean, he's a superior fixer of a planet. Okay, it needs some work, but it's really the only option. To become multiplanetary and in the long term we can heat Mars and we could densify the atmosphere and there would be a liquid ocean on about 40% of the surface so we can make it an Earth-like planet in the long term, let's see. I have learned a lot since we started the company and in the beginning we were not able to put even a small rocket into orbit until now, where we have done 327 successful launches, almost 300 landings, in fact, you know, give it a few weeks. and we will have made three landings 261.

I was told many times that reuse was impossible and even if you did it it would be pointless because no one would want to fly rockets that much, but now we fly and land routinely. propellant and we recovered the fairing, so we have learned a lot from the Falcon program that is then being incorporated into the spacecraft program and Falcon and Starlink are the ones that obviously keep the company in operation, as well as lending a hand to the Falcon team for the amazing job they're doing and then Dragon wow 45 dragon launches is amazing and we've taken 50 crew members to orbit 46 to the space station and they've all come home safely which is the most important thing you know, amazing job by the dragon team, so let's give it a hand I couldn't ask for a better result and Starlink, in fact, if you look at the kind of plot of all the satellites orbiting the Earth, it actually seems a little scary, but there are 6,000 satellites in operation with more than 6,000 and 10,000 lasers, almost 3 million customers, so the stoplink is doing a lot of good for people on Earth who don't have access to the Internet or it is very expensive, so it's doing a lot of good, you know? on Earth because when I say we want to be multiple species, you know we obviously want Earth to be the best it can be and Mars to be great, so the link is doing a huge amount of that and we're learning a lot by having this great fleet stop link that will also be very important for high bandwidth communication to and on Mars from a small rocket to the Falcon 9, which is a much larger rocket, many iterations of the Falcon 9 and then the Falcon heavy. and then Starship and Starship will get bigger, obviously, you know this year, if things go as planned, uh, SpaceX will probably do 90% of the entire Earth Master orbit and then China will do about 6% and the rest of the world will do it. about 4% which is pretty wild and then once Starship is flying we will cover over 99% of the entire Earth mass which is something you have to do to build a city on Mars and I should say that too you will build a Bonar base.

You could also see along the way that Falcon One actually had half a ton to orbit. A slight error on the slide. The Falcon had about half a ton to orbit the Falcon 9, depending on Expendable. The mode would probably make 25 tons for Orit and yes, Falcon heavy, probably 70 anyway, obviously these are rapidly increasing numbers and Starship in its final configuration or its final form will probably run at over 200 tons to orbit with full reusability and can fly. I know several times a day so I'm pretty sure we'll get it done this year like I said probably 80 90% this year and then there's the recovery and reuse of the ship the ship will take longer so I think the ship What we want. have at least two consecutive successes of a given design landing at a specific point in the ocean or crashing into a specific point in the ocean before trying to bring it back to the launch site because we don't want debris raining down on Mexico.

In the US, I'm guessing that probably next year we'll be able to reuse Starship, but I think it's very likely that this year we'll take Starship or its switch side to a controlled point in the ocean and basically land on a virtual tower somewhere. place in the Pacific or the Indian Ocean and we have already shown that we can carry out the final landing phase, from a kind of first belly position to rotating the boatand land vertically. We've shown that right here what we really need is to be sure that we can get through the high heating part of the reentry application reliably and then we'll bring the ship back and it'll land on the tower as well and we'll build more mechazilla, like this that there will be two launch towers here and I think also two launch towers at the cape, so we will have four launch towers for four starships, you probably already know that next year with the goal of we will have the first launch tower for Cape and the launch system operational by the middle of next year and that will be important for the launch as our type of flight is overland so I think what we should probably expect is that we do the type of development launches here They test anything new here, they build the rockets and then probably most of the operational launches would be from the cape, so this year we are planning to build another six or so boosters and shifts and that production rate will increase a lot next year. why we are building the Giant Factory ultimately we will need to build many more ships than boosters especially for Mars because that is where you will really want to use the ship, disassemble the ship and use it as raw materials on Mars because the ship materials will be very valuable . most of the ships that you wouldn't want to bring back you would want to use just as raw materials, eventually we will want to bring the ships back and I think we want to give people the option to come back because they are more likely to do so.

I want to go if there is, but I think most of the people who go to Mars will probably never return to Earth and we'll need to ramp up production to pretty high numbers, like I think ultimately probably a ship with several ships per day , basically, and Then next year our goal is to demonstrate transfer and propulsion from one ship to another. It's hard to make this not sound a little off-putting because it's two ships connecting and a fluid transfer is exactly what it is, but it's actually very important. It's a very important step to go to Mars because you need to put the ship into orbit and then do orbital refueling like aerial refueling and that's really, you're going to need about five or six resupply missions for every mission that goes. to Mars, about 5 to one and this will also be very important for the Artemis program to get N back to the moon, so we want to have a ship that is okay, it will be a specialized ship for the moon like This means that on the Moon obviously there's no mechazilla so we need landing legs and you don't need a heat shield or fins because there's no atmosphere so the moonship would be specialized and now ultimately I think we want to build one.

Moonbase Alpha and having a Bas permanently occupied on the moon like that would be super exciting, so you would have a bunch of ships that are specialized to go back and forth to the moon, but never come back, never land on Earth. It would simply be docked with propellant tankers for orbital refueling, so in terms of performance, we've made dramatic progress at every level for Starship. It's remarkable that you look at the Rapor engines and how it's evolved from, you know, optimistically, 185 tonnes. and I think ultimately probably the booster engines will aim for the booster engines to be over 330 tons of thrust, which would mean 10,000 tons of total thrust at quit and then beam 3 won't need a heat shield either, so the beam 3 It looks very simple and is actually simplified in many ways, but much of the complexity is hidden because we have integral cooling channels in many parts of the engine that do not exist in proportion to that so not having a heat shield has to be very rugged, but this is what the Raptor 3 would look like.

It looks like the Ra 3 is missing a lot of parts, but in reality those parts have been removed or integrated into the system and, as I said, with integral cooling channels and where secondary plumbing is needed, the secondary plumbing has also been integrated into the pump and into the chamber jacket and yes it is much simpler, yes it is actually extremely difficult to build beam 3 but it will be easy to integrate. and we have higher performance and lower overall mass and are more reliable, well that may last a while. I find it interesting to note if you look at the flame tail on Starship and how long it is, it's a very long flame tail which is due to the fact that the chamber pressure is simply producing much more, yes, much more gas than it has. higher speed, but I think the tail of the flame is about 1000 feet long, it's like more than twice the length of the rocket and that In reality, as we increase, the thrust will lengthen, yes, and inevitably the rocket will grow in height.

The onslaught of Starship 2, like currently, flight three would be around 40 or 50 tons, so the current Starship 2 design will weigh over 100 tons and then Starship 3 would weigh over 200 tons and yes, it will go from around from 7,000 tons of thrust to more than 8,000, but I think that in the end we will end up with more than three, more than 10,000 tons of thrust, probably 7 or 8,000 tons of takeoff mass and at least We will see that 10 m higher it tends to grow, yeah exactly, it'll probably grow a little bit bigger than that, even if you look at the Falcon 9, we're not going to make the length to the diameter of the Falcon 9, that would be crazy. but the Falcon 9 is a very long rocket so I suspect it will probably be a little longer than this, but at 200 tons per flight fully reusable, that's pretty incredible and yes, it will have a height on the order of 500 feet and then There are thousands of design improvements here.

I mean, I think maybe one of the most profound things is that Starship 3 will cost less per flight than Falcon 1, so that's the difference between whether you have a fully reusable rocket or an expendable rocket. fully reusable rocket with low-cost propellant and autogenous pressurization actually costs less than a small expandable rocket and will do like the Falcon one, weighs about half a ton, Starship 3 will have 400 times more payload for less than the cost of Ultimately , I think we could reduce the cost per flight to Earth orbit by about $2 million or $3 million. These are unthinkable numbers, you know, no one thought this was possible, but we're not going to break up. any physics to achieve this so this is within B without breaking physics we can make this so that the Mars missions are 2 years apart or 26 months apart and if you look closely at the Starlink router you will see the house and the transfer from Earth to Mars. overit and that's basically to tell people that the Starlink system you're buying is helping to get humanity to Mars.

I think it's cool, about every 2 years thousands of ships would leave Earth for Mars, it would look like Battle Star Galactica, but in It's a good way to find out, hopefully, without being chased by syons, but it would be awesome to see these thousands of ships leaving every 26 months for Mars. What this diagram basically says is that to get to Mars we would essentially create some sort of propellant tank ship. The propellant tank would look more like a hot dog than a spear. It's actually just a long ship with a lot of insulation and we'll fill that ship and then shortly before or when they go to Mars.

The ships would take off with a couple hundred tons of payload from Earth, arrive at Orit with almost no propellant and then be reloaded by the tanker and then go to Mars and land on Mars with over 200 tons of payload and then loving You. At first I think we would just reuse the materials from the ships so that most of the ships wouldn't come back, but then over time you would want to bring the ships back so you could reuse them and for that we would need to create. methane CH4 and oxygen O2 on Mars, which can be done with H2O and CO2, so the atmosphere is CO2 and there is a lot of water ice H2O, so it is tailor-made, actually the reason we have a system of oxygen and methane is because methane and oxygen can be produced. on Mars quite easily, not only is it not a total job in the park, but the ingredients are available to create methane and oxygen on Mars, so you will build a propellant depot and bring the ships back and build as quickly as possible. a self-sufficient system possible. civilization on Mars and we want to get the cost of going to Mars to be such that almost anyone can afford it, as if someone just worked hard on Earth, saved up and could go to Mars, so it's like anyone.

Ideally, almost anyone could go to Mars and I think you'll see a lot of governments sponsoring people as well and ultimately we want there to be an optimal landing zone on Mars where you have resources to have access to water or frozen water. water that you are not too close to the PO so that you can use solar energy. It would be good to use nuclear energy. I don't know if you'll get approval, but nuclear power would be very useful on Mars because you can use heat and you can generate electricity and then you want to be about 2 kilometers below sea level, so if Mars had an ocean, you'd actually be Pretty deep in the ocean at least at first and yeah, look, that's Mars-like. like you want to land about halfway between the pole and the equator in some kind of deep area of ​​Mars, if the deeper it is, the more you can use the atmosphere to break up and the atmospheric density is higher, these are all things that They would have to be developed.

Sometimes people ask me if we are developing these things. I say not yet because this is the cart and we need the horse first, so the rocket is the horse and then this is the cart. But ultimately, we. We will need all of these things a lot of power generation general mining ice mining propulsion production long life support construction a lot of construction and then global communication, so I think this would open up a lot of opportunities for entrepreneurs who want to create anything. things on Mars, whether it's a propellant, well, I guess we'll have to make the propellant depot, but whether it's iron ore or refining, a pizzeria or a bar, you know there will be an opportunity to do all the things that I eat on Earth in Mars, like a Mars bar, would be cool, so I think probably a rough order of magnitude estimate of what you need, how many people you need for a self-sustaining city is about a million to several million tons. of cargo, yes, which we can do and we can do it in 20 years, but as I said, to be self-sufficient you actually need the entire base of the industry, no element can be missing, so that is really what is going to take a while and ask if you have everything you need to survive on Mars.

At that point, the future of Consciousness is assured if you do 10 launches a day at 200 tons per launch, uh, a million and a half tons for Leo per opportunity. to a quarter of a million tons, uh Tom Mars, per opportunity, which means you can get to a million tons in about 8 years, since the opportunities are two years apart, so I think this is quite feasible and I think we're really going to do this. We, you know, we're actually going to do it, which is crazy to think that millions of tons tomorrow will be wild, we'll build a lot of vehicles, several thousand vehicles a year is what we'll need, which is actually quite feasible, in fact , looks a lot like. but it is very feasible, yes, if you compare it with the type of car production, it is a small amount, of course, it is much larger than one car, but even if we look at the total tonnage, it is still very feasible to build several thousands of vehicles a year. that's what we have to do and we're going to do it and then in the long term we'll probably have some offshore launch sites.

You can imagine all these spaceships waiting in orbit for the planets to align and then this gigantic Starfleet taking over. Mars, okay, so we're going to do this and you think about where did this start, this was literally like a sandbar where we're standing now and now look what we've done here and we've gotten three Starship flights and we've got a fourth on the way. and we are building a gigantic factory that will be able to produce a large number of ships, so it is surreal but real, so we are actually going to do this. You are going to take Humanity to Mars and I am sure that you will be able to do it