"Druck im Kessel wird zunehmen!" – Folker Hellmeyer zieht Parallelen zur Weltwirtschaftskrise 1929

And for me, unfortunately these topics are not discussed in the discourse in Germany, in the talk shows, in the news programs of our economic and financial media, to the extent that this topic deserves, especially and now I know what it is found in the context of our history. in

1929

/32 Episode 33 Yes, he is known for his striking words, he does not take up space in front of his mouth and that is why I am even more glad that today we are our guests again. Hello Mr. Hellmeier, Chief Economist at Networks AG, it's good that you took the time for us.

I'm glad I took it and look forward to our conversation. This week the head of the central bank shook the markets a little again. Following his statement that official interest rates will likely be higher than previously assumed, it now appears as if the market is playing Volker's role. In any case, so far the two point zero has not really gone down, what do you mean?, and there will never be a Paul Walker again because all the circumstances of his presidency of the Feder Reserve were completely different from the current ones, there were many less complexities, there were fewer things that needed to be taken into account in this regard, in my opinion, it is naive.

To always make a comparison with Paul Walker. There was also a different politics back then, there was also a different democracy back then, a different economic constitution in the US and the global economy, and the market takes it if you take it in the primaries. The action in his statement seems more serious and he didn't say anything different than what he said last time, but rather the stylistic device of recruiting repetition to make the market suddenly say oh, maybe we should listen more carefully and what? why are you listening carefully? Of course, this depends on the timing of the recent disappointing inflation data when it comes to the easing issue and in this sense is a reaction to the data combined with words.

The crucial question going forward is whether this development in inflation data will continue. continue to disappoint then that will have a stopping effect, your words and also the policy beforehand then the fans reserve on the other side at the time when there should be relaxing signals here everything retracts the market is changing climate which is what I mean Paul is consistent in his statements because with the changed data there are now different ways of treating his words and that is part of the process of noticing that they are nervous and what does she tell me also visible?

Next week, before we look at the inflation data and the economic situation, let's take a quick look at next week. There are the two important interest rate meetings of Fett and the ECB, which Fett will present on Wednesday and then the ECB on On. An increase of 50 basis points was always considered on Thursday, so an additional increase in interest rates of 0.5 percentage points was set if the bulk, but now perhaps also of 50 basis points, already foresees it. The ECB has always spoken of 0.25 percentage points. Then perhaps you could even add a little more to further reduce the interest rate gap with the United States.

So let's start with the Federal Reserve. I see a fifty percent chance for the Fed next week, just in quotes. 25 bars or 50 bars. I even tend to assume 25 basis points why the braking effects that we have in the United States in certain sectors of the economy that are essential to the consumption pillar are greater than basically in the United States. financial media, let me make this clear on a topic: the Bankers Association branded mortgage market index is currently at 1997 levels. Meanwhile, we had a housing market crisis in January 2018 at its lowest points since 1997 and The real estate market and the stock market are of enormous importance to American consumers and 70% of the American economy is correlated with private consumption and in this sense I would tend to do so if they forced me and they are currently doing so.

I will decide with 51 to 49, advantage from 25th when Joachim Nagel became president of the Bundesbank. I said it and now things are changing and I said it with conviction because we have known each other for many, many years, right now we barely have any contact, I'm still a bit of a 9 degree person, I think in certain circles, but in few In other words, it has since become clear that there is a fundamental change when the ECB has given advice and if we take into account the latest statements as well. from Mr. Holzmann, director of the Austrian National Bank, about the four increase in interest rates on 50 cash bunker and then puts 5% in the room then we simply recognize that the resistance of the so-called doves is not the nations but those who flutter because I defend a soft central bank policy, that this field of doves has been greatly reduced and that means that the issue of 50 basis points but separated from next week, that does not mean that the next steps are already written in stone The fact is that in the ECB there is a hawkish orientation in the resurgence of the pen, I see it as more balanced, as I said, and here we come to the next point of why the soft reserve can adopt a moderate approach. taken for the first time they are at 450 to 475 at the key interest rate they are again at three where consumer prices in the US are at 6.4% in our country note point five so that they have made me reserve and inflation The problem when we also look at consumer prices has been reduced, the same applies to producer prices, so surfing has a different one in English called quiet room room to move while still being conservative but slightly adjusting the dose of the conservative instructions as it is in The ECB, where it is simply said that I am staying in the English cache, so the recovery pressure is much more pronounced than in the spring reserve and that is the image I have too, but now they wanted to ask questions with certainty about what's next with inflation.

I know exactly and especially with interest rates, do you really think 6% in the US is quite possible for us? The 5%, as she called it, is the best case of the Falken Scenario that I can imagine. that we stay a little low, so at the ECB the next step is now set at 50 basic pumps and then there are more steps. I can definitely imagine a moderation to 25°. Now we will get to inflation. At this time we always have the spikes in commodity price movement from last year, which should now disappear and relax. So with price inflation we have an endogenous development of the successful economy itself and from outside.

From the outside, actually, in the next few months we will make sure to go down a little bit, but where can we go? We can get closer to the central rate, which is now around 5.5% in the eurozone, I think 5.6% is the same. an all-time high That means these are realistic sizes and when that happens then we again see the psychopaths noting that there is easing after all and then pressure builds on the central bank not to act too quickly because they don't either. They want the economy. They are fully graded, which means to me that we will stay about half a percent below these sizes, that means for the US not half a percent for the ECB, something like 450 475, but that's not done of concrete, why is it not made of concrete now because here again there are external forces that decide.

Now we see that the growth forecasts that the IMF wanted in January have been raised and my things will be raised even more because the resilience that is stronger in the economy is something that only results from the endogeneity of its economy. own strength, not only in parts, there is also political economy if we look at what politics is doing now, then the economic program whether it is the military sector, but we still have all this infrastructure development that has not yet been implemented. But in the end, The Republican Party 27 is already politically located in the middle.

Converting the economy towards sustainability means replacing machines that are no longer available and that no longer complement the environmental demands of these machines. These are all basically political-economic drivers. that are in the space that they have to be implemented by companies, that means more economic activity here and now we are reaching a point when it comes to the media and long-term inflation and I would like to emphasize this again because I find it very dissolute, really dissolute also from my industry that we actually causally said problems in the supply chain that are related to Corona that are not now, that is not only related to Corona, which was a major catalyst of a temporary nature, but what we have fundamentally , We have had underinvestment since 2017 globally without investment and if there is investment, very little production capacity is built, everything is understandable from the microcosm of companies due to the uncertainties of US and Trump action policies , etc., then Corona and and and and but that is the main problem and if there is really demand now it continues to increase with limited production capacities, there is an economic room for maneuver and then the inflation outlook may suddenly appear again as stickier in English as more persistent than we are now anticipating.

In other words, the better the economy does, the greater the risks that inflation will be with us in a more sustainable way. We're talking about another point and I know he's looking for a monologue, but I know he wanted to do it. ask the question, so there's still a point where there's energy at play for me right now, it's again. I want to use the term dissolute again, the dissolute with respect to the energy situation to be relaxed when we see the relaxation that we have in terms of the prices of the energy markets, it surprises me to a certain extent because this opening of the Asian economy and when we see that the last IMF did not want a perspective so we see that it is the epicenter of the forces of growth and that is something that goes hand in hand with the consumption of raw materials in the construction of a structure and also increases energy consumption and then this relaxed situation that we have now 30, which is perhaps also artificially produced to some extent by the futures markets and certain interests that are behind it, then this relaxation In my opinion, at least questioning that means once again whether the world economy is doing better, higher consumption of raw materials, a slight increase in raw material prices again from the current base, so in addition to endogenous price pressure, wages and spiral prices, we have heard train 12 % at least 500 euros and so on, then it could The inflationary pressure will be at these levels of five six percent in the end or maybe up to 7% again after the current fall and then we will discuss the The topic repeats itself completely, so While this is short-term, I'm pretty comfortable that we're moving toward the core inflation rate.

If the economy is better, the pressure in the boiler will basically increase and then we can say one thing: Joachim Nagel is a lucky break for us, at the head of the Bundesbank, because he follows this line, so the children not only recognize the structures. We recently talked about Aristotle's framework with economics and that is exactly what Joachim Nagel and perhaps now also Mr. Holzmann some other personalities within the ECB and one thing we know from the past, even if it is painful in the short term, every adjustment Structural, if it is sustainable, takes time. It cuts some fat out of the capital production factor application, but streamlines the big picture. to win the future and we must not forget it and in this sense I prefer this pain that can threaten from this side in the short term than a ship on the wrong course.

They have the investments that are definitely necessary in infrastructure projects that The question we have addressed is, of course, where the money will come from, if companies no longer have their wallets so loose, consumers also keep their cash and the savings rate increases significantly if there is anything left to do. except at this moment, then the state would really have to go into debt, that would again go against Mr. Nagel's policy, so, for example, you can also listen to a Flasbeck to colleagues of his from childhood between the camps, now let's say That's exactly the problem. , so there is no easy solution, basically it is about saying that in the current environment we need a restructuring of the world's production potential, the best restructuring would be like this and now listen carefully that we return to Peace to be able to optimally use the potential given throughout the world, I know, I have blue eyes, that sounds naive because behind it there are other geopolitical interests that want to share the world.

Wanting to share the world means accelerating the inflation train, nothing more, and by doing so you do it. they do no good to the world in terms of humanistic prosperity Fighting global povertyServiceand not in the sense of preserving life because it is accompanied by military conflicts, so at the moment when that should arise, this issue also decreases, that is the first point, the second point, yes there will continue to be fiscal stimulus for As for the political economy, I spoke at the beginning about infrastructure programs, the funds have been allocated, they are not being implemented at the moment, that is the crucial point and this is clearly at the expense of the Northern budget to a large extent. but if we talk about Head 27, then it will go to the industry and they will be forced to do it because otherwise you will not be able to maintain your business at all, you will come from a place where you do not have enough investment. and there's pressure to invest anyway, and that's what's going to happen if you don't want to say goodbye to the world of competition and you want to say goodbye to the business now.

But let's move on to the next topic with the given aspects, think about yours, that is this, it is a subsidy policy through the 370 billion US budget program and then another 52 billion program to eliminate the industry of semiconductors from Taiwan and move it to the US. So if we look at that, we can see that there is quite a bit of fiscal acceleration and it clearly counteracts the political approaches of the central banking sector, they are the lambs, but who will win here is politics or the central bank is politics and that brings us to the topic.

It was previously revealed that perhaps the inflationary pressure we are currently working on will be more persistent in the medium term than it seems now, with the hope of saving in the future and where the current inflationary pressure is coming from right now, especially if We look at energy prices and gasoline pumps, for example, have fallen significantly in recent weeks, but inflation here is 8.7%, the same level as in January, according to preliminary calculations. Where does the inflationary pressure in the service sector currently come from? an important role and represents more than 50% of the added value, so at the moment price increases are taking place, which are also an important part of the wage price spiral, but that is provisional so far and, on the other hand Many companies have price increases for everyone.

There is an ifobarometer that says that is bullshit that is going down right now, so I think since February they say that it is now 29% and companies are planning price increases that come from 35% or more than 50% the last year. year, that means that initially it seems that the trend relaxes to some extent, but we are talking. Here there are still about one in three companies or almost one in three companies that want to increase prices and then we see that this is the endogenous pressure on prices that arises. and we also have to pay and I say it here I am also not a friend of the social market economy as we have been promoting for 30 years, but the social market economy and the social market economy also include the factor of responsible procession.

The capital and last year we experienced the largest real wage losses in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany. The price we pay for the border crisis with Ukraine is that not only 380 billion asset losses are four percent real and losses in the total wage bill. We are talking about magnitudes like a multiple of Ukraine's economic output in 2019 before the whole crisis and of course that must also be compensated by the people here with their livelihoods and in particular those fighting for their lives and they are not at the top. income range, that these livelihoods are maintained and therefore it is right that we catch up with wage increases, but my wish may be that that is the case here between four and seven percent, not 12 percent, because if we exceed this then all inflation will be even more expensive, with negative consequences for the general economic model, which should be replaced to a certain point, between four and seven percent, and then adopt moderate reforms during those years , with the condition that inflation does not have to be perfect.

Lately the issue of the energy crisis has also been relaxed, which was completely different when we last spoke in the autumn; there was much fear that it might be a hard winter after all. Of course, time has helped us since then. But what is the verdict for the federal government if it then has to issue red ratings? Actually, so far everything has been going pretty well. So what are they doing? I'm totally excited about Harbeck and Scholz and, simply put, it was an ironic situation. management satisfactory structure management 6 and those who force the situation management of the current situation with a 200 billion program it remains to be seen if it will be exploited to the maximum, psychology always works now we are seeing prices for customers below 500 euros per unit in the Amsterdam stock exchange On the exchange we see the fall in oil prices, many falls in raw material prices, everything seems quite good at the beginning, so the management of the situation is good, we had security of supply in the winter , the probability that we will also supply in the next one is high, that is good, but it does not change the structural problems that this causes for the German economic area if we really make this switch to LNG in the first place a lie for ourselves today data came out 600 the EU has increased Russia's LNG imports have increased by 46 percent in the last 12 months, so we are replacing cheap oil from pipelines with expensive LNG.

Pipeline gas via expensive LNG gas also from Russia in addition to the USA which are even more expensive. I must say that he pays because these bills are the first. of all the milkmaid bills went into the right pocket because I, like this, hit Russia with them, not, as we would like, also the Russian structures can record economic data and we lie to ourselves, but who pays the bill? , our private homes have the existentially necessary partial situation and our economic location in terms of investment attractiveness, it is not in vain that we have fallen from the lowest place of 21 countries to the 18th place in which they have the lowest price for this location, thank you Harbeck, thank you annalenchen now you have people who really have a tremendous amount of knowledge and experience in their lives and who have also worked in business and have always paid taxes there when you have people like that.

The top has done it, so things are going very well, we haven't solved any problems. , none, if we implement this LNG story, then we will pay about three times the price as before the Ukraine crisis if everything goes well or a price four to five times is a location disadvantage and our companies vote with their feet. BMW is now investing in the program more energy security and prices, I think they are at 25% of our gas price right now, just as an example, less red tape, less bureaucracy, business friendly and performance oriented system compared with ours, where we say that all the top performers are not that good because we would like everything to be more relaxed and fun and then relax and discuss the balance live, which is why BMW is investing billions of amounts now in South Carolina.

Bayer is moving all its pharmaceutical research to a brain that we will have here in Germany to the USA. BASF is going with 10 billion to China it is building in Ludwigshafen it is becoming more and more an industrial museum what is Linde doing? What does Linde do? What are car suppliers doing? Schaeffler says invest in Germany No- Wow, we're going somewhere else in the US, etc., and they're not cheap. The jobs that are now being eliminated, these are the ones that sustain this system and let me finish with a thought: it is not the state that makes money. , the state distributes money, rebuilds the capital that stops the sum of all companies is the source of all income for the state and for them private households and then the state comes and says okay, we distribute from here to there and there and that within the framework of social justice or supposedly social justice, and if we do not maintain this capital stock, the income of private households and the State will fall for the State, then the State will not be able to provide the subsidies that it still Today they are common to us. that not only the prosperity of a country is reduced but also the function of the welfare state and this regularly makes us know that we have seen a euro deficit crisis in the southern countries a certain dissatisfaction in the population a sociopolitical essence of politics closeness ends discreetly and, for me, unfortunately these issues are not discussed in Germany in the talk shows, in the news of our economic and financial media to the extent they deserve, especially now that I know that, in the context of our history , once in

1929

/32 episode 33 it was the economy, as they said, it was stupid, everything depends on the economy, society also became politically stable and we are doing open heart experiments here and something like that, I have never experienced anything like that .

This is in the history of Europe and the United States in the last 500 years and I don't know what it is. It is definitely a complicated situation at the moment when all companies are moving to other places to invest and not making new investments here in Germany. What exactly do I have to change? What concrete solution proposal do you have in this regard? Habeck and Lindner, Minister of Economy and Finance, what should change in the coming years or even in the short term so that we can avoid this exodus? Do companies in the US and China just drop the issue of tax policy and that's what Mr.

Linden opened up? We are a high tax country and also very high taxes, so we have the worst conditions everywhere and the only advantage we have. It is our economic group. That's what I mean, we have huge angels and extensive supply chains. If I have 437 for steel, if one producer fails, then I have a second in my 50 to 100 kilometer area that can. This is an enormous force of efficiency that we have and that cannot be quantified and can now be measured in money, but the basic structures of our economy are very productive and this is an issue that has always been able to largely counteract these negative problems of the excess of regulation and the relatively high tax system if now we lose it due to lack of investment everything is standing we are a country with high taxes we are a country with high regulations we are not performance oriented but rather a country of distribution that is now has become socialist from the social market economy we are lagging behind in education our infrastructure can be optimized to put it politely and I also do our IT so we have it everywhere Disadvantages and that was our only advantage and if we play with that then We are playing with a lot more than people realize today and of course there is no such thing as an overnight digital process, black and white should be successive processors, so first we see that we are looking at the taxes that receives the high tax bracket. going out to the middle field is one point, the second point is let's look at Japan, that's what Japan does, so Japan depends on fossil fuels like us.

Japan sanctions Russia, but does it. Japan now imports Sakhalin oil from Russian fields again as if nothing had happened. had happened, we can see that the situation of the sanctioning countries is quite heterogeneous, that is, there are countries that do it, there are other countries, there are those who do it with their words but not with their actions. And what do we do? It is strict, although we do not strive at all because we know exactly that, as the head of international energy agencies said, without Russian raw materials it does not work, and that is why we have. labeling is why the tankers are being repackaged or on the Greek coast off the Chinese coast we receive Russian LG from China, which is Russian LG, but as if the Chinese perceive Chinese energy as Chinese.

Let's make it clear and also take into account the normative force of the. It is a fact and let us finally put an end to this meat grinder in Ukraine, because Ukraine is paying with its lives for the geopolitics of third countries. Is that what's happening here? I would like to refer you to a follow-up program from ARD Spring 2014. There are only parts of it. I left it because you would like to have it. Do not hesitate to contact me. I still have the original and it contains everything I have already said in other programs. But what Putin understands today as a narrative is presented in detail in ARD and let's do it. directly in the face of historical truth and then find a solution for the European space for the people of Europe, especially Ukraine, but also for the Russians who are also on the front.

The fall at this moment is the worst we have if we solve it. With this problem we will have many problems and I do not think we should proceed ideologically. If history has left us empty, whoever wants peace must always be pragmatic. Ideologues must find their way back to inner and outer peace. Yes, that's what the greats did too, says Adenauer Pillowenger,What's everyone's name, Schmidt Brand. They hid in the back rooms and locked themselves in for a few days. They tried to find a solution, but... At the moment when it really seems that the war also really exists, the fronts are totally hardened, in reality no one is willing to negotiate, even if the wars end up at the negotiating table.

How can a situation arise in which one sits at the table with the conflicting parties and manages to overcome everything? They are ready. You can recognize it by the pain that both parties suffer because not only one party has made mistakes, but mistakes have been made on both sides and that is even magic politics. We now know that Annalena's Bismarck Hall at the Foreign Office has been. abolished I say openly that you don't know his political style because he had exactly this empathy for others and being self-critical to force solutions. Latent escalation is also a form of solution, but it is probably the worst possible. be and this point is in Mine didn't reach it either and the other point is that I can't tell you, so I'm one of the people who are not very well received in Berlin at the moment and who is not even being considered for such formats, despite the fact that the forecast is a disaster all around.

Period since 20 14 is bribery, but you don't want something like that because it doesn't fit the native, that is the basic problem we have in this country that it is not those who act and have knowledge who put the shit in places, but those who they believe. Having that there is a big difference in addressing Bismarck from 1870 to World War I works well with the status quo. Of course, right now it's not that easy. I definitely do not want to be in Chancellor Scholz's place, on the one hand I do not want to upset the United States, my ally.

On the other hand, there is also conflict. with China, which on Russia's part remains neutral and still does not supply us with weapons, but we are also very dependent on China, so almost all electronic components have a Chinese chip, at least more Taiwanese, what do you think the words? There has been sadness between the US and China lately, so the Chinese Foreign Minister has given a very clear warning: the US has to be careful, they have to ease off the accelerator a little bit, take their foot off the gas and to put on. Don't accelerate too much because otherwise a derailment of the conflict may threaten how much we estimate China is invading Taiwan this year.

That is, they will not see how the United States dismantles the semiconductor industry here and transports it to its own country. So I see exactly the latest thing that the United States is doing and once it has achieved that, of course, we will bring numbers from Thailand, now we have a contraction in economic output, we had a decline in industrial production of -20. % in the last month of the report and we can see that this trend has been taking hold for about a year and a half and has something to do with Taiwan's demonstration in favor of its friend the US, which means that this friendship of The USA is great for the USA.

The Taiwanese buy the weapons and spend their money on them in the USA and at the same time the USA attracts the way to one of the shields. The key to driving out industries is to move them to the US with 52. billion in subsidies that do not comply with the WTU, so at this time when Taiwan, which currently still produces 63% of production semiconductor world, has an ace up its sleeve in terms of geopolitical and geoeconomic importance. I can imagine that the US will return to the status of UN Resolution 2758 of 1971, China will have the right of exclusive representation, etc.

Also through Taiwan, many heads of state who were once friendly to the US can also take advantage. Remember that as long as they have fought against Iran, it may quickly become irrelevant to Washington the moment economic or geopolitical aspects no longer sustainable enough and that is the risk, the opportunity, depending on how you look at it, for Taiwan, but I don't see any attack This year, at the current People's Congress in Beijing, the new foreign policy chief said very clearly that they were working to achieve a peaceful solution, but that the United States was on the verge of overreaching because what the United States did What it is doing is actually an usurpation of sovereignty under international law based on Resolution 2758.

Ms. Angelina Bierbock should also know this, she is automatically an expert in international law. If I have sovereignty, it is a violation of international law and that is the correct side. There is always a moral and emotional side, there is no doubt, but from the point of view of international law it is completely clear that here is the right side and who is on the wrong side. Yes, if China were. To turn off the tap now, if we imagine that the conflict worsens and rare earth exports stop because of me, then ultimately the entire energy transition can be forgotten.

Because everyone should have a solar panel because it contains silicon. or in wind turbines, because the components also come from China. How does Germany really get out of this dilemma so that we can reduce our dependence on China but ultimately keep everything peaceful? That's why we want to do one thing here right now. I want to depend on Russia, China is fighting and who are we really increasing them with and also increasing? That's not true at all. I am a friend of the United States in the sense of the United States Constitution in the sense of international law, but I am certainly a friend of the United States in the sense of the United States Constitution in the sense of international law.

He is not a friend of the government of recent years, especially since 1992 under the theme of Wolfritz's neoconservatives because they are totalitarian statements because they have changed something compared to the time when we had the Marshall Plan and since then international law will have been broken according to good dentists, sanctions according to their type. The WTO has been destroyed and all this at the expense of German, European and global interests and if this attack by the US, this aggression against these structures, is critically followed and then criticized, I have to be honest and say, then I wonder where is the factual basis?

I've been right on every point I've made over the last few years or so since the late 90's, and the ones that are right, are they? also morally, by the way, based on values, technically because this totalitarian pretension of the neoconservatives goes against all the values ​​we have in the world. The West has it because it is a task of state sovereignty and self-determination. of the democratic constitution, so if I name all that then I am a critic of the USA, no, that is me, that is me in this matter, but I have nothing against them USA I sing to Elvis Presley I see Katrin Western I Hear that, I think the US Constitution is sensational when it is full of life, but the discourse in the US is not homogeneous, what is happening there is exactly that part of the Constitution that wants to oppose the current forces and that is why I have to say that Amazon is making this criticism objectively, it is discriminatory and I read it but I just want to thank you for mentioning that because it hurts me because I defend real values ​​and values ​​are universal and they are not they can apply arbitrarily and this. is exactly the position that I defend and this position is now being criticized here, which is a denial of the values ​​themselves, so I would definitely like to use your experience again for a moment, including what it is when it comes to On the topic of the capital markets, the chief analyst of Netfonds has already been active for a good year, one can say not, or almost a year, and the DAX has already given some initial praise and has clearly outperformed the US indices lately.

Explain that? Surprise at the moment, so I am quite calm about it, so it is not a reassessment of Germany's position in Europe that is worrying, but rather it is explained by the fact that last year, when the crisis broke out in Ukraine . In February there was a truly dynamic increase in the number of military conflicts. There is an existential risk for our economies in Germany, but also in Western Europe, and this has been assessed by the markets, especially in London and New York, which means that the key market participants in the world have brought Europe to the Hell, it happens here and there.

We ourselves don't have a true stock culture to absorb something like that, so the negative amplitude has sometimes been very pronounced in the US when this existential risk across the state. The intervention was leveled for the next generation, our 200 billion euro program was leveled and they did not imagine these final negative scenarios. A saturation, a saturation of the short position, there was nothing new and when something like that happens, then you have to have a countermovement and since we do not have a stock market culture and liquidity, this countermovement, as well as the downward movement, is much more aggressive than the move in the US markets, the explanation and what we have now is actually a situation where this short position coverage has been reduced to a moderate level and this results in the type of performance right now of the European markets against which there must be an anomaly that was based on an anomaly the other time.

Only then would it be better to sell Europe proportionally and that is now being bought to cover the short position, but there is no new assessment of the quality of the location because it has stabilized in the short term, but in the medium term nothing has changed structurally Europe has the worst cards in the global context and as an example, I will say again that you are CFO and CEO and one person and you have to invest ten billion globally, you have three locations to choose from: US, Europe, Western Europe or emerging countries and has to exploit an economic area. today in the debate which field is a victim yes then imagine the markets in the future the music will be played it will be canceled it will not be canceled Europe that is what you mean so the US is an alternative they are an alternative because they have matter cheap premium materials for me, security supply and so on, but Europe is exactly this.

Not all issues and Europe is also politically a bunch of chickens, so when I look at what we have done with Europe in the last 20 years, there is no longer a political posturing scene and they need it, but if they are a big investor in the world, then they also need it through the politics of representing their interests and this motley bunch of chickens. Europe cannot represent the capital interests of the factors of production to the extent that perhaps China can or the United States can and these are huge differences, what I am saying is also the location conditions where we speak.

So the political situation is also one where I have to say that Europe definitely offers no reason to burst into euphoria. In any case, the municipalities already said it at the beginning of the year. So far, the stock market lights are still green. Or have you now become more cautious about the stock rate? It's still green but we're adding up the points. Now it will be money on the DAX, let's take 15,000 50 points as a proxy and now it should continue to rise, increasing its value because, as I said, the structural problems are what. They are important in the long term, they are not organized, the short-term cyclical economics are very good and there is a point that speaks for Europe and that is what I want to say at this point, it is one thing to be critical now on the negative side but later critical on the positive side but it is something that can accompany us between our fingers in the future.

The European Union has about 14% of the global economy, the United States has 15.6 and China has almost 19 according to purchasing power parity. , but we have about 18 percent of the world's industrial production and in the context of Due to the supply chain problem, European production cannot be dispensed with worldwide and is integrated everywhere and that is for our industry what we still have. If there are no more investments now, at least we have this stock that is being used quite fully and that means we have it. In my opinion, the industrial sector and the stress point of view have good prospects for the next 12 months, which remains to be seen what the energy situation will be in mid-2024 and now I will also say one thing in one of my criticisms of our politics: I have the desire and the hope and I will tell you that, very openly, that wisdom is finally It is raining in Berlin and perhaps the voices that moderate are solution-oriented and not ideological, that these voices should be given more space because here at Volker Hellmayer it's not about me, it's not about me either.

It is about leaving a field behind for the future. generations, that the stability that we were able to enjoy during the last generations, that they can also enjoy this stability, that is what it is about and it is not about vanity or anything else, it is just about this issue. That's what we call inLatin the right. - popular wing that opens its cause and wishes us humility in the face of the tasks we really have. The reality is pragmatism, optimism but not opportunism. Nice last word, Mr. Heilmeier, I totally agree with that, it's still exciting anyway.

How things will continue in the coming months, we will surely run out of things to talk about. I would love if we could continue again mid-year with a current update, thank you very much for that. For the moment, yes, what is your opinion on the topic of how to get out of this crisis in one piece? Feel free to write us your solution approach directly below in the comments feature, also like, forward, subscribe to the channel yes. If you haven't already, you can help us ensure our channel continues to grow. Thanks to rising interest rates, property values ​​have also come under significant pressure, with share prices falling well below net asset value, sometimes at discounts of more than 50%.

What exactly the NRV is about is explained to you in this video here on our second channel, just take a look and you will definitely learn something more and I would love for you to be there again next time with financial experts in an interview on the topic of sustainability The investment until then is good and I hope to see each other next time