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Coronavirus outbreak will likely get worse before it gets better, specialist says

Coronavirus outbreak will likely get worse before it gets better, specialist says
let's welcome in dr. Shiro madad senior director of New York City's health and hospital system-wide special pathogens program dr. madad is also principal investigator with the center for global healthcare special pathogens preparedness was recently featured in the Netflix docu-series pandemic doctor madad thanks very much for joining us thank you when we see this big spike in in in reporting numbers middle of last week from China and since then coming down a little bit does it make you
coronavirus outbreak will likely get worse before it gets better specialist says
think that we are past the worst of this or can we not say that yet I think not at all I think it's way too early to tell and with this trend I think we need to just take it with a grain of salt we still are very early on in the

outbreak

and I think that there's still a lot that we still don't know there's still community transmission happening not just in China but you know in other countries around the world so I think we're really close to a tipping point of this
potentially being declared a pandemic event so certainly I think in my opinion is probably gonna get

worse

before

it

gets

better

including places like the US that's right I think we're going to continue to see additional cases of perhaps even community transmission according to what the CDC is stating and this is why around the nation and hospitals and healthcare systems or basically you know preparing for a worst-case scenario in terms of the the cruise ship and how people were treated
on that do you support that that US citizens were were brought home from it or do you think they should have been kept on the cruise ship on one level it felt like almost human rights abuse to keep all those people together in that way so cruise ships are notorious for you know obviously incubating a number of different infectious diseases and we've seen that with norovirus but I think that the decision that was made obviously is based more so on politics perhaps less on science and I think
as this continues to evolve we'll see if this was a right decision or not personally right now it seems that it was perhaps not a great decision but I think well even if they kept in quarantine at an Air Force Base or wherever that might be when they returned home so I mean I think that social distancing is a very important aspect it's a good public health measure certainly in that regard I think it's a good good way to obviously mitigate the issues that we're seeing can you
coronavirus outbreak will likely get worse before it gets better specialist says
speak to the tale so the best case what would that look like how long does it take to evolve and what would you look for and God forbid the worst case so best case you know in this you know current obviously epidemic is that the virus you know basically calms down if you

will

and we're able to get it under control not just within China but worldwide it doesn't seem that that's going to be the case this is a respiratory virus the respiratory viruses are very hard to contain just by
the nature of the virus itself I think worst case scenario it's going to continue to infect you know susceptible individuals until we have a therapeutic or vaccine available doctor the the how virulent do you think that the virus actually is the the rates of mortality rates are very high but they may not include all the people that we don't even know had it because they they didn't get that sick that's right what what is your your feel for it it's much lower than 1%
wouldn't you think that's right so a large portion of the cases over 80% are mild cases and I think for every individual that's actually going to the hospital there's probably hundreds more that obviously are do have the corona virus disease but they're not going to the hospital so without being counted in the case is it higher mortality rate than the average flu it is higher but it's lower than SARS and MERS which is another corona virus so I think in that context this
is a mild virus but again too early to tell just one more quick how did we get how did SARS was a corona virus how did that Peter out why you're saying it's un

likely

it does this time was that harder person-to-person transmission this is

better

code 19 is

better

so Crona virus 19 seems like it's obviously acting a lot like seasonal flu and it is much more transmissible so we're seeing a lot more individuals obviously get infected compared to the SARS

outbreak

that we saw in 2002
coronavirus outbreak will likely get worse before it gets better specialist says
but I think it's also important to highlight the number of people that have actually recovered from corona virus disease so over 13,000 individuals have recovered they find immediately order they go through a six month period with heart and respiratory issues I think we're still too early to tell we mean we're only six weeks and so I think that they're so following these individuals to see what the so Paul a maybe even after but don't don't we have three other corona
viruses that repeat like the flu every year is always cool regular cold that's right so this is I didn't realize

coronavirus

sounded sounded given what's happening in China terrible but there are three that repeat others that repeat every year that's right yeah I mean

coronavirus

es it's a it's a family of RNA viruses and they can cause you know mild you know viral viral infections like the common cold and then more severe infections like murderers SARS and now

coronavirus

disease just very quickly the how close are we to a vaccine and as in when one is its fan does that stop it dead in its tracks in terms of whether we need to still fear it or not so I think we're still at least perhaps a year out from an actual effective vaccine so certainly I think good good old public health measures are going to continue to obviously take center stage but I think even then when a vaccine is even available we've seen this during the measles

outbreak

right the
anti-vaxxers so we may have a vaccine available but now we're going to have to face another issue of do people want the vaccine and are they going to actually be

will

ing to get vaccinated you