Coronavirus outbreak will likely get worse before it gets better, specialist says

please welcome dr. shiro madad senior director new york city health and hospital system wide special pathogens program dr. Madad is also a Senior Investigator at the Center for Global Health Care Special Pathogen Preparedness was recently featured on the Netflix pandemic documentary series doctor madad thank you so much for joining us thank you as we see this huge increase in reporting numbers in mid from last week from china and since going down a bit does it make you think we're past the worst of this or we can't say that but i think i don't think it's too early to tell and with this trend i think we need to take it With a grain of salt, we're still very early in the

outbreak

and I think there's still a lot we don't know yet, there's still community transmission not only in China, but also in other countries around the world. world so I think we're very close to an inflection point where this could be declared a pandemic event so I certainly think it's probably going to get

worse

before it

gets

better

in my opinion including places like the US That's a platform I think we're going to continue to see additional cases of maybe even community transmission according to what the CDC is saying and that's why across the country and hospitals and health care systems or basically, you know, get ready for the worst case scenario in terms of the cruise and how people were treated at the time, do you support that the US citizens were brought home or do you think they should have been kept on the cruise at a level that felt almost like abuse of human rights to maintain? all of those people put together like that, so cruise ships are notorious because obviously they incubate a number of different infectious diseases and we've seen it with norovirus, but I think the decision that was made is obviously more politically based, maybe less in the science and I think as this continues to evolve we'll see if this was a correct decision or not personally at this point it seems like maybe it wasn't a big decision but I think fine even if they quarantined in an Air Force Base or wherever it is when they got back home, so I mean, I think social distancing is a very important aspect, it's a good public health measure, certainly in that sense, I think it's a good way to obviously mitigate the problems we're seeing, can you talk about the history?

At best, what would that look like? How long does it take to evolve? What would I look for? God forbid. obviously the epidemic is the virus you know basically calm down if you want and we can control it not only within china but all over the world. That doesn't seem to be the case. This is a respiratory virus. respiratory viruses. they are very difficult to contain simply because of the nature of the virus itself. I think that, in the worst case, it

will

continue to infect susceptible people until we have a therapeutic doctor or a vaccine available.

How virulent do you think it is? that the virus is actually the Death rates are very high, but they may not include all the people who we don't even know had it because they didn't get as sick. That's how you feel about it. is much lower than 1%, don't you think that is correct? So a large portion of the cases, over 80%, are mild cases, and I think for every individual who actually goes to the hospital, there are probably hundreds more who obviously have the corona virus. disease, but they don't go to the hospital, so not counting in the case, is that a higher death rate than the average flu? mild virus, but again too early to say just one faster, how do we get it?

better

code 19 is better then Cr ona virus 19 seems to obviously act very similar to the seasonal flu and is much more transmissible so we're seeing a lot more people obviously get infected compared to the SARS

outbreak

that we saw in 2002, but I think it is also important to highlight the number of people who have actually recovered from the corona virus disease, so more than 13,000 people have recovered immediately find order go through a period of six months with heart and respiratory problems I think it's still too early to say that we mean we only have six weeks and I think they're following these people to see what Paul maybe even after, but right?

We have three other corona viruses that recur like the flu every year. so this is it I didn't realize the

coronavirus

sounded it sounded terrible given what's happening in China but there are three that recur others that recur every year that's right yeah I mean

coronavirus

es , is a family of RNA v. Irus and can cause mild viral infections like the common cold and then more serious infections like the killer SARS and now coronavirus disease very quickly how close we are to a vaccine and when you're a fan of it does that stop you in your tracks in terms of whether should we still fear it or not so I think we're still at least maybe a year away from an actual effective vaccine so I certainly think the good old public health measures are going to continue. obviously taking center stage but I think even then when a vaccine is available we've seen this during the measles outbreak in the anti-vax so we may have a vaccine available but now we're going to have to face another problem of Do people want the vaccine and

will

they really be willing to get vaccinated?