CNN poll indicates Donald Trump leading in electoral votes

New CNN

poll

this morning with a new look at what voters think and how they feel in two battleground states, Michigan and Pennsylvania. They were key to President Biden's victory in 2020. And new data shows his campaign may have work to do to win them this time. CNN's Harry Enten is here with his look at the new

poll

s. What do you see first in these numbers? What do I see? What do I see in these numbers? Alright. First of all, Michigan's numbers are not good for the incoming president. United States Donald Trump with 50% Joe Biden with 42%. I looked back at the 2020 polls and at no point during the campaign was there a single poll by CNN's standards for publication in which Donald Trump led Joe Biden.

There was zero here we already have one. And I looked at the polling average. I looked at our previous CNN poll and they all show the same thing, which is that Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in the Wolverine State. If you go to Michigan, look, there is no clear leader. That's the key that's happening. These two gentlemen are tied. But then again, this is a state that Joe Biden won last time by just over a percentage point. So this is not the kind of polling Joe Biden wants to see here, but they are clearly in better shape in Pennsylvania than in Michigan.

I was going to say that the Biden campaign can take comfort here and with the numbers and where support remains. But it looks like this is where Michigan is at. They are probably looking more closely and where there is work to be done. What is the biggest change in Michigan from the last election? Yeah, you know, this is something I've been harping on and harping on and harping on. So let's break this down. By race, right? Let's look at voters of color. Look at white voters. And what we see here is at 20, 20. According to the exit poll, Joe Biden won Michigan's black voters by 62 points.

Look at that advantage. Today. He has been cut by a third to just 21 points. That is Joe Biden's advantage over Donald Trump among voters of color, among white voters. Donald Trump has gained some strength and 11 points in 2020. His margin over Joe Biden right now is 16 points. But this decline in support for Joe Biden among voters of color in Michigan is something we've been seeing in state after state and also nationally, where he's having big problems. This is a historically low level of support for a Democratic presidential candidate. Among voters of color, and it seems to be happening across the board.

Kate, I think you're also taking note in Michigan specifically on voter sentiment on Trump's efforts to overturn the election. It's exactly right. So, you know, Joe Biden has the flaws of him in the voter's mind. Donald Trump has his flaws. Look, look, let's see what could be a flaw of Donald Trump. If true, the charges against Trump regarding efforts to overturn the 2020 election either disqualify him for the presidency, cast doubt on his suitability for office, or are not relevant to his suitability for office. Here only 44%. Only 44% of registered voters say they disqualify him from the presidency if they are true.

It is not about asking if they are true or not. We are saying that if they are true, do they disqualify Donald Trump from the presidency? And only 44% of registered voters say that doing this is, in fact, a big problem for Joe Biden. Because the fact is, even if Trump were convicted, it's not clear to me that voters will abandon him. And it's almost the same as this. 42% say that his suitability for the trip is not relevant. Isn't it soft? Because that could also mean I'm not. I don't think he's fit for the job, no matter what, or I think he's fit for the job.

Yeah. I mean, I will say that I looked in the crosstabs that I like Democrats. It's the Republicans who say this. They are not the Democrats. Democrats overwhelmingly say so. It's a smart question. But no, this largely addresses the idea that there are a lot of voters who are essentially saying, you know, even if these allegations are true, they don't disqualify him. Note that Harry said it was a smart question. What about one of Biden's biggest perceived weaknesses that worries voters in general, which is his age? Yes. If he thinks about what he wants from President Biden, sharpness and resilience are exactly what he wants.

This is where I think Joe Biden wants voters to be. It's only 7% close enough. 24%. What if it's not what you want in Michigan? 69%. 69%. It's not what you want. This, to me, is a big problem for Joe Biden. Because the fact is, while most voters say that even if the charges against Trump are true in Michigan, they don't disqualify him here. Most voters in Michigan say Joe Biden's sharpness and resilience are not what is desired. Well, there are still months left. Yes. Things can and probably will change more than once, yes. Surveys are a snapshot in time.

Yes. What does this snapshot say about the electorate? Yes, I've been waiting to press that button. So you could get all of those. It's like they're just waiting for it, allowing it to matter. Have you had to do material? Absolutely. Based on recent surveys and past results. Donald Trump leads the Electoral College right at this particular moment. CNN's David Chalian has much more for us. David, a smart man named David Chalian, pointed out this morning that about a quarter of voters in both states say they are still undecided about voting. Why is that so important? Makes sense, right?

Because there are still more than seven months until the elections. So it's important because, as we know with surveys, this is a snapshot in time. But when voters say, yes, I can change my mind, it kind of shows that there is work to do for both the Trump and Biden campaigns, with all these months ahead of them to seal the deal. But I want to dig a little deeper into some of the demographics that fall under the horse racing numbers you just provided. Look, here in Pennsylvania, if you look among independents, you'll see that Biden is at 46% and Trump is at 36%.

He is plus ten among independents in 2020. According to exit polls, Biden was plus eight in Pennsylvania among these, so he is within the range of women, he is plus eight with women in 2020 and exit polls urn Biden was plus 11 in Pennsylvania among women again within range. . So, as you noted, parts of Biden's coalition here appear to be coming back to him in Pennsylvania. That's a different story when you look at Michigan. Michigan again looks at these same demographic places where Biden is -10 to win among independents. Well, in the 2020 exits, Biden won the independent election in Michigan by six women, here it is more or less even, given the margin of error what I would call a three-point split 48, 45, a roughly equal split between women between Trump and Biden.

Biden won women in Pennsylvania by 14 percentage points in 2020 at the exit. So clearly there are parts of the Biden coalition in Michigan that are not yet returning to the norm of where they were in 2020 and what about the continuing question about a third party, David? Kate, I find this look at fair horse racing among registered voters fascinating. We're not yet in the season of looking at likely voters, but you'll see here in Pennsylvania, Trump gets 40% to Biden's 38% and RFK junior's 16%. he calls that 4%. The first thing I want to point out here is because I think this is the most important factor in third-party support right now and it doesn't reduce Trump's victory at all.

Basically, he's winning that race, so to speak, without a clear leader, but he's numerically ahead with 40% of the vote, that's all he needs to get the most support there. Same thing in Michigan. If we look at the third party factor there, we see that Donald Trump's number two who emerged victorious is the number of victories here, also at 40%. It is dramatically less for Trump when he will overcome the hurdle of winning the state with the third party there. . Now, when we look inward, we see that Kennedy voters are attracting Republicans and Democrats almost equally. So it's not entirely clear in terms of support where it totally draws in terms of an advantage for Biden or Trump, but it's clear that it lowers the threshold needed to win a state.

How does or doesn't his approval rating factor into all of this? That is a good question. We track it all the time and it's been kind of a reliable indicator for decades in politics, especially for incumbents. Right, who is running for re-election. Look at Joe Biden's approval rating in Pennsylvania. First you see that he has a 40% approval rating. 60% disapproval. Basically, that's where he's been on average nationally. But again, in Michigan we see something different. He has a 35% approval rating in Michigan. 64% disapproval. Now it's a tougher electorate in Michigan for him, and specifically in basically all the polls that we've seen after October 7th and the Israel-Hamas issue, how he's playing particularly there.

But Kate, the question is: is Biden the factor in this race, based on these polls in these two battleground states? Trump is the factor. Trump is the factor for both Biden voters and Trump voters. Look, in Pennsylvania, Biden voters are seen overwhelmingly saying they will vote against his opponent. 61% say the same about Biden supporters, not Joe Biden. It's the complete opposite for Donald Trump. We see something similar in Michigan. Donald Trump, whether he is a Biden or Trump supporter, is the driving force of this election. And that may be good news for Joe Biden, who, of course, is trying to keep Donald Trump front and center in America's mind.

That's speed dating. David is seeing those numbers together on the grid. It's great to see you, David. Thank you so much. You were, you were just counting. This is really cool. Do you see David in every work exposing that in the idea that Donald Trump is the central factor? Can it be him with both campaigns? That's what I'm thinking, right? Because that's what Biden says, don't compare me to the almighty. Compare it with the alternative. By the way, this is basically the essence of likely voting seasons. David Chalian, favorite Right Little Old Fat song