Wetterextreme: das neue Normal? Leschs Kosmos [Ganze TV-Folge] | Harald LeschJun 28, 2022
we all know the photos water wheel through alleys and streets and it takes everything with it is this the new
normalwe have to get used to the fact that houses caravans break and bend and carry like paper and what is left it's the naked horror apocalypse in a few minutes and that in central germany, where people go on vacation, hike, bike, where
normally stagnant and running waters flow peacefully, almost comfortably and romantically, now we are dealing with bodies of water that bring annihilation destruction and the despair of how this can be the case about a week ago in the affected regions of areas where no one would have suspected a catastrophe of such magnitude shocked above all by the force of the immense destruction even in the south, for example in the Berchtesgadener land, there is a state of emergency in many places why there was heavy rain just now In these areas of such catastrophic effects, factors can be identified that we can change and, above all, there is the distressing question of whether this type of event will normalize in the future after several years in a row.
The weather this summer seems to have become another extreme of violent and long-lasting storms. long-lasting heavy rain the amount of precipitation reached a maximum of 182 liters per square meter in the Mark district 134 liters in ahrweiler in upper bavaria quantities of up to 130 liters per square meter were measured in a single day there was more than twice as much rain as normally it falls in a whole month the problem was the so-called persistent weather conditions three consecutive days the weather stays the same a strong area of low pressure brings warm humid air from the mediterranean sea which then meets cold polar air this is not a new phenomenon , but the number of days such a weather pattern occurs over the course of a year has changed until the late 1960s.
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Weather conditions average 14 days a year, but since 1970 the number of days has been has doubled to about 28 days. Heavy rains and rising water levels do not have the same effects everywhere in disaster areas. A factor plays an important role if 50 liters per square meter. field in the lowlands then if the water is 5 cm high with 150 liters it is already 15 centimeters, but the topographic conditions in the affected regions are different if 150 liters fall on mountainous landscapes and rush down the slopes, a small river can grow five to seven meters and will quickly become a threat to life electricity will be water is almost impossible to manage, especially since part of the soil can no longer absorb water. every day, 52 hectares are redesignated and sealed as settlement areas and traffic, that is. built on asphalt concrete paved or otherwise paved since 1992 the proportion has been sealed areas in germany has increased by 20 percent some areas appear intact at first glance the ground appears natural about half of the entire area is characterized by vehicles or agricultural machines rolling through the fields depending on the weight pressure is generated in the soil and the agricultural machines weigh like harvesters harvesters of almost 30 tons as a result, the density of soil particles is compressed, the soil is so compacted that rainwater and water accumulations can no longer adequately secure landscapes that cannot be seen at first glance can become disaster areas such as the reason for heavy rains events that contributed to the flood disaster heated air in the atmosphere experts agree I agree on this because an air mass that has warmed by one degree can absorb 7 percent more d e humidity and there is another important influence on our climate, these are the large scale currents in the upper atmosphere around running around the globe are rivers wider than the amazon and when they stand still can contribute to the fact that in some towns and cities the sky literally falls on their heads continuous rain often persists stubbornly for days to weeks between temperatures 40 almost 50 degrees celsius prevail in canada for weeks record heat also along the west coast of the usa. often penetrating farther south than was previously the case this means freezing weather lasts for weeks researchers surmise extreme weather conditions have something to do with high-altitude wind the jet stream circulating at the boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere at an altitude of eight to twelve kilometers and this is how the high wind warm air from the equator flowing towards the north pole becomes ti rch the rotation of the earth deflected the high temperature and therefore , the pressure difference between the tropics and the polar region drives the jet stream which reaches speeds of up to 500 kilometers per hour researchers have been observing for years that the jet stream is becoming weaker and therefore unstable the cause they see in the rapid warming of the arctic as the ice melts, more sunlight is absorbed by the dark areas since 1971 the polar region has warmed three times faster than the rest of the planet as a result the temperature difference between the arctic and the tropics is narrowing the jet stream is losing strength it starts me to others especially this is only pronounced in autumn and winter when the arctic ice surface has returned In the spring, the jet stream also normalizes, at least for a short time.
The unstable high-altitude wind, for example, also caused the weeks of extreme heat in Germany in the summers of 2018 and 2019, according to scientists. low water levels and catastrophic droughts were the result of the weakening of the jet stream, hot air from the Sahara can also penetrate to the north and remain in the summer of 2009 10 she was responsible for the heat record in Germany with more of 42 degrees Celsius at the highest temperature measured since records began researchers are also trying to understand the infl uence of the jet stream for the current flood disaster will definitely continue to be the focus of your studies experts warn that we will have to expect extreme weather of all kinds more frequently in the future, that we are here watch the development of natural disasters in the last 40 years, the green bars from 1980 to 1999 and the gray bars from 2000 to 2009 10 you can see very clearly that something has happened something has changed there are more floods there are more droughts more storms and there are more extreme weather events and now you say hello to friedrich otto at the university of oxford is a climate researcher and one of the co-founders of the science of classification which deals with how climate change might be related to individual extreme weather events hello car to cut to the chase extreme weather events heavy rain events in western europe, how can they be allocated in a corridor with and without ca climate change? the world today with climate change this event we just experienced we hope it will be a century event a decade event we can do it using climate models and also observational data and statistical models and since we know very well how many greenhouse gases greenhouse gases have entered the atmosphere since the start of the industrial revolution we can do the same thing experimentally So even in a world without climate change, use climate models to pull greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere again and simulate the same extreme event and then see if it's still a decade-long event or perhaps a century. event in the world without climate change and if the latter is the If so, you can assign this difference, that is, this increase in probability by a factor of 10, to climate change.
Can events like heavy rains and droughts be mapped equally well, or if there are differences in how well you can map an extreme value event to climate change depends on two things, on the one hand, how big is the actual influence of climate change? and for example, in the case of heat waves, climate change is an absolute game changer; they're at least ten to a hundred to a thousand times more likely than due to climate change, which is to say the signal is very, very clear, and secondly, you need it by models that can realistically simulate the events you're interested in. this is relatively difficult, for example, with the heavy rains that we have seen in germany, because it takes place on relatively small geographic scales, which means that you also need resolution climate models and there are not many but it is possible, but for example others events like hail, which occur on such small scales that you can't simulate them with climate models, you can't attribute them accordingly if you look at the development of attribution science something like a convergence of results that it's becoming increasingly clear to what extent climate change is responsible for the frequency of extreme weather events, so it can be said that in the future we will experience a completely different theme and also the weather situation the research task has ben, which got a much clearer picture during the last five years or a much more realistic picture of what climate change really means for us here today and you just saw that heat waves are many orders of magnitude more likely in a year with extreme rainfall it depends a lot it depends on the region for example in northern europe in winter you can see a clear increase in other parts of the world in many parts of asia also in others but not droughts are more likely in regions that are already dry anyway eg the mediterranean area and in south africa but you can't say we have a completely different climate everywhere in the world, except for heat and cold waves, which are really completely different from what we had experienced without climate change, thank you very much and all. the best thing so far that humans have always been able to relate to one allies left the almost like a buffer between our kohlendio carbon dioxide emissions and global warming, these buffers go back to the forces of our planet, but mostly , the superpowers of the earth that we weaken, as humans have been burning fossil fuels on a large scale, we have spewed out about two million tons of CO2. the atmosphere but a large part has disappeared from the air but how and, above all, where a quarter of the co2 released by humans has been absorbed by the seas the unicellular alga emiliania huxleyi has a key role in this because it shields itself with small limestone plates in which carbon binds these algae form gigantic algae blooms die sink to the sea floor along with their armor in the process extract many gigatonnes of CO2 per year from the atmosphere a huge reservoir of biological carbon but the absorption of co2 has fatal side effects in relation to water carbonic acid is formed which makes the oceans more acidic in the last 50 years n oceans acidified by almost 30% threaten all inhabitants of the quran fish until the smaller creatures and in emiliania acidic water attacks the limestone shell which means it multiplies worse and does not form albumen sea of flowers that means ca that the oceans are through us in their function as a buffer of CO2 as a brake on climate change significantly weakened in siberia there is an additional danger to the atmosphere ground that has been frozen for millions of years sometimes submerges more than 1500 meters deep in the settlements the subsoil breaks gigantically landslides are harbingers of the imminent catastrophe that was the reason for the record temperatures of May this year with more than 32 degrees, even four degrees warmer than ever, the microorganisms awakened from their permanent sleep due to warming they decompose organic matter in the soil through their metabolism in large quantities of greenhouse gases escape, especially methane with a greenhouse effect 25% stronger than CO2, the fuel gas partially escapes with such a high concentration that it ignites during thunderstorms and large areas of fire break out as is currently the case in the summer of 2009 10 largest fires on the planet raged in russia a vicious circle because freedom are global warming continues and with it the danger of permafrost soiling could accumulate even faster according to forecasts, the area would shrink by about 25 percent by 2080 and that would have fatal consequences because 23 million square kilometers, a quarter of the land surface in the northern hemisphere is permafrost, these regions contain about 1600 gigatons carbon, double As much as the entire atmosphere, more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere means more global warming, and so researchers are predicting increasingly dynamic weather conditions for Europe, hurricanes of destructive proportions, these monster storms occur where the water is at least 26 degrees, that is, up to now ra alone intropical latitudes and the trade winds usually carry them towards the caribbean due to the increase in temperature to the nature of the atlantic, hurricanes can now also occur further north, so they will be caught by northern air currents and driven towards europe provided a preview of the 2017 strom ophelia, which hit england with hurricane force at the end of the century, the number could increaseaccording to calculations, such storms are increasing from 2 to 3 10 per year today we know more than ever about the processes in the atmosphere and we owe it to the scientists whose curiosity and care with which they tirelessly measured what is changing where and how around them chains of networked processes, that is, from over to land, from land to sea, through wind and weather, etc., but putting them together into a single image, i.e. a complete climate model, requires sophisticated computer programs, i.e. software, and the most powerful computers in our world. or time, i.e. hardware, thanks to the combination of the human spirit and digital technology they even manage to incorporate tipping points into climate models, so that predictions of what climate change will mean for us in the future simply How will our planet get better and better in the future?
What will really change these forecasts is research teams around the world, like here at Princeton, the climate models they create take into account all the crucial factors in the climate system, such as the effect of solar activity and greenhouse gases, the interactions between the systems are crucial, because everything is interrelated, more clouds form in the atmosphere influence than rainfall and vegetation sea level rises when ice at the poles melts one of the systems collapses this can lead to a kind of multiple organ failure of our planet because each of the systems as it influences the others climate models are a kind of early warning system weakens as a result one component affects all the others in their computer simulations the researchers cover the globe with a virtual grid at each grid point the closer the grid, the more detailed the parameters you observe now models are calculated for each grid box how solar activity, greenhouse gases and other factors will change the climate in the future and how the global average temperature will develop as a result of the reliable forecasts require immense computing power to test the reliability of the models the results are compared with the past, the red curve shows the average global temperature change calculated by the models black the one actually observed the comparison shows that the models show the trend well forecasts of how the average temperature will change global warming in the future if we continue as before are worrisome according to the intergovernmental panel on climate change warming of 15 degrees Celsius in the will be reached by 2030 and 2 degrees already some 15 years later what a difference even half a degree more makes researchers determine At 15 degrees in Europe 52 percent of the year would be as hot as the previous record year 2016 at two degrees is 88 percent at 15 degrees, 11 percent of the world's land surface would be threatened by river flooding at two degrees 21 percent at 15 degrees, sea level in cuxhaven, for example, would rise 34 centimeters at two degrees and 53 centimeters and at 15 degrees, six percent of all insect species will lose more than half their habitat to the two degrees 18 percent would increase its risk of extinction consequently alarming forecasts to avoid its appearance, climate goals must not only be formulated but also met Reducing carbon dioxide emission is still the top priority because the climate system reacts quickly to co2 emission after only ten years, the introduced molecules contribute to the greenhouse effect, i.e. warming, by the way, that should be an incentive for climate negotiations because it means you can do something about it now the worst effects of climate change, i.e. floods or heat waves, can abm However, if we do nothing or even increase emissions, these molecules will remain in the atmosphere for over a hundred years with virtually always the same greenhouse effect.
Simulation has now shown that after this time scale, i.e. after 100 years, the biosphere and oceans will begin to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide and they will be dismantled gradually so we definitely need to prepare and when it comes to flooding we can do that too, using the example of places and cities in exposed places that have already learned to live with this risk in cities like the dutch coastal metropolis of rotterdam people have to accompany them constantly expect high water 80 percent of the city is below water level from the sea the risk of flooding is omnipresent here, but the largest European port must be secured with a comprehensive flood concept a unique dam makes it possible to seal off the main shipping route in the event of a disaster two floating gates can withstand large storm surges, therefore the port of rotterdam is considered flood proof and there are also many small flexible flood solutions in the rest of the city it is all water power also geared towards air water masses when dry band in the plain it is for the schoolchildren the adjoining school a popular playground but when it rains a lot the area becomes in a large retention pond later the accumulated water is drained from here to the port every square meter that is not sealed with concrete helps with flood protection more and more roofs are being planted in rotterdam an area of around 220,000 square meters under forts rains, the water is absorbed and then only partly and mostly only released into the sewer system much later all of rotterdam is one big water laboratory countless pilot projects have been developed here, for example the free-floating event hall the building floats on a find Dutch architects are famous for constantly searching for new forms of life by the water.
They have even built entire settlements out of houseboats. These buildings are not only floodproof, but also create new areas in response to increasing space requirements. in the world's major coastal cities i am now talking about this with professor christian kulik, professor at the university of potsdam on environmental risks and sustainability and head of a working group at the helmholtz center in leipzig my colleague what should we do the societies? to do and what we should do under the modified framework conditions of climate change obviously threatening natural disasters caused by climate change or at least they have become more likely what we do now how we have to change first we have to be aware of the great challenge of the future and to be able to learn become adaptable now we have four or three years of extreme drought this year extremely heavy rains with incredible damage both events were unimaginable five or six years ago and with these new unimaginable things we have to become aware of them and draw the right and crucial conclusions drawing from this and now specifically on the severe weather catastrophe on the flood catastrophe that we are currently still dealing with what would be the correct measures to react to it as a whole, the first thing we need to do is we have to improve early warning systems throughout Germany at this time they are not good enough in some countries they are good in many countries not good enough second we absolutely have to meet the demand is age until it is more relevant give rivers more space retention in the area improve water retention in the area there are little career opportunities everywhere storage is possible i opportunities to dam to improve so less water reaches stetten and we have to make cities safer it starts with building protection we need weather safe buildings but this too it refers to retention areas and walls and since i throughout most of it in waldstetten what do you do to people when they experience such a catastrophe and it is so unimaginable?
I don't believe it. I can not imagine. I know from my research that there must be a huge loss of control compatible loss of security unite your own four walls that I usually bring it back where we stayed and at the same time the loss of many valuables that are irreplaceable photo albums relics was not to bring back with all the money in the world, so they are, if you will, really entrenched significant losses f So that the people on the site go along with this and fix it, would you agree if I said that we have lived through a little careless with the fact that two of these natural disasters may be caused by climate change, but we never expect them to actually happen? here well maybe not carefree but we still haven't understood the depth of the change we really need a fundamentally different approach to future climate changes it's not enough to pull out the old recipes to build the dam a little higher or improve the system alert. kinda we really need profound fundamental changes and in all areas thank you very much mate it's all good by the way the word climate change sounds too peaceful to me the word change sounds like a gradual transition to the next possibly so slowly that i didnt even notice it the effect of the change is not identifiable at all there dr no uprising no revolution nothing is turning upside down but apparently not at all we should not be talking about climate catastrophe because what is coming is extreme and what do you solve the fiasco disaster debacle anguish and despair all because of the high concentrations of greenhouse gases with catastrophes you do not make any commitment I would like to see him then he stands in front of the camera and talks about it yes we have to make a commitment with the climatic catastrophe no, you cannot make any compromise with catastrophes, they must be prevented at all costs and we know yes, also what we have to do we have to get out of everything that emits carbon fast everywhere and completely I would say very clearly the climate catastrophe is real it is our fault the experts fully agree and it is very dangerous but still There's something we can do, damn why don't we do it now?
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