Der Ukrainekrieg und die neue globale Machtstruktur

Dear ladies and gentlemen, dear guests of honor, welcome to today's event organized by the Austrian Institute for Europe and Security Policy, whose topic and title could not be more topical: the war in Ukraine and the new global power structures. My name is Michael Zinkkanel. I have been working at AES for over four years and will soon be able to take up my new role as Director, so I am especially pleased to be able to welcome you to this new role for the first time this afternoon. I would like to warmly welcome the representatives of the Embassy of Ukraine and the members of isport present today, especially Mr.

Nikolaus, Ms. Christine Muttern and Mr. Ernst Huber, who are part of our board of directors and, of course, they all come to this meeting really very timely and very exciting event with people who, in my opinion, can give an excellent assessment of the current war in Ukraine, with some of the people who, above all, from a military perspective, I would like to warmly welcome you, together with you, Colonel Markus Reisner Dr. Fasslabenden President of AES and our current moderator Roland today. I won't go into too many details now. We all know the most recent events that have marked us, the extent to which the last almost 24 12 months have shaped global power structures and, above all, European security and defense policy.

We are all familiar with the terrifying images and reports from Ukraine in recent weeks and months and that is why I am absolutely convinced that today's event will give you more information, more information. What I would like to tell you is that we at Ars, as one of the main institutes in Vienna, will certainly closely follow the developments in Ukraine and the future war of Russian aggression and will continue to provide you in the form of publications in the form of events, provide information, analysis on how the coming weeks and months will unfold. Thank you very much for coming and in this spirit I would like to turn the floor over to Mr.

Rolandowitzer and I would like to thank him. and I look forward to an interesting evening. Thank you very much, Michael Zinkanel, yes. Good evening ladies and gentlemen, would I like to briefly introduce myself? My name is Roland Adrovica. I worked at ORF for 44 years. I retired on January 1st. For the past 12 years I have been responsible for ORF's foreign correspondents, which is now an elite group. I am very glad that one of the apparitions is described. Peter Fritz could have the climate in these 12 years that I was allowed to be responsible for this group, we opened two new offices in Istanbul and kyiv, today you can see how correct these decisions were, then we are probably one of the few ORF, continue being one of the few European broadcasters and what our young correspondent and colleague Katharina Wagner is currently reporting for the first year.

I think it's really innovative and I don't need much about Christian's appreciation for his reporting on Ukraine. I discovered it in 2015, when CEO Brabetz opened the office in kyiv. we said it from time to time we still need them and yes, we need them urgently and for a long time Christian was one of the few German-speaking correspondents who left in the early stages of the war Ukraine reported this afternoon that the events of the last 24/48 hours could not be more relevant: the decision of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, after much deliberation, to approve the delivery of Leopard tanks to Ukraine and probably also in coordination with the American decision with the German presidents to send both Abrams tanks to Ukraine. much impact it will have on the course of the war, people like me will tell you that I will not do it and first we will hear two opening speeches from obersreisen and Dr.

Fasslab and then I will look forward to what I hope will be an interesting discussion. I would like to ask you to thank my father and thank you gentlemen for giving me the honor of being able to present it today. It is very difficult to approach one of the terrible wars in a very short time. I will try to present the last eleven months in a few words and slides so that you have an idea of ​​the situation as it has developed since the beginning and what the situation is now and what that could mean in the coming weeks. and months in general around Ukraine It is day 337 337, which means that we are almost 12 months into the year of this terrible war and I remind you again because it is very important to me, you must make sure that Ukraine is a huge country and Of course, it is of essential importance when we consider military considerations relating to the development of the conflict.

Once again I have projected Austria into this, so you can see the vast expanse of this country and that is why it is understandable that it is not easy for Ukraine on a front line that has almost more than 1000. This defensive battle against Russia has 100 km long, 1,100 km that would be like if you got in the car in London and drove to Berlin to give your idea of ​​how far away we are. We are talking and it should also be said to those who say, well, if Ukraine is exempt from the KfW, it can reach an agreement with the Russians, so of course Ukraine cannot do without the south and the east, especially considering the economic situation.

Let's think about grain production, 35% of Ukrainian grain, as an example of many: grain production represents 35 percent of the so-called GDP and 98 percent of this grain is transported by sea, at the moment it is only possible in a very limited quantity. in Odessa due to the reconquest of Snake Island, but you can see that there are also, for example, the steel mills in Mariopol, asofthal, etc. This is also an important moment in the economic development of Ukraine's economic survival. It is also important for us to look at the Nebra part of this country, like the Danube in Austria, and this river is also very crucial now if we consider military developments if we think, for example, in person, about this bridgehead that Ukraine has recovered . where there was a danger of Russia attacking further along the southern coast.

Let's start with the first phase of the attack. Russia has gathered around 190,000 soldiers at work, which is too small for the size of the country. Number one I did not expect this massive resistance to occur from the Ukrainian side. They began to attack the country in several operational maneuver groups. The idea of ​​planning was to achieve a decision with a beheading attack on kyiv. Maybe they knew. which was actually war. In the first days a decision was made in favor of Ukraine, at least during the beginning of the conflict, because the decisive moment of the planned air landing did not develop as expected.

I show it to you briefly in an image that you can see above on the left, northwest. From here at the hostel airfield, the idea was to take this airfield with the air force and then fly transport planes behind them and thus advance together with them. forces to kyiv, not to take kyiv but to do two things, on the one hand, place parachute physical workers and create cadres and, on the other hand, we know that beheading the military political leaders is so good because in these first hours It is a conflict Parallel, the Russian drones in eastern Ukraine sent short messages where the president was captured, the government has fallen, we will overcome it and that's why I know it was aimed at this decapitation attack, which it didn't.

It did not work thanks to the very, very skillful use of European air defense, that is, mobile air defense, while the stationary air defense on the Russian side was destroyed, but in fact 79% was destroyed. The Russians were very successful in the wrong areas, like this case, but they did not capture this mobile air, these rockets, for example, that were delivered from the Baltic countries and that caused the downing of helicopters in this air operation. There are a total of five, which means that the Russians could not follow the heavy transport aircraft, so these air forces were not alone, they were repelled by the Ukrainian armed forces, so there was a delay of two days until on February 26.

In February, in principle, the associations Those who approached Angel from the north had the opportunity to connect with the wrong media in Hostelmehl and therefore tried again here via Butsche and you to move further towards Kiel. Ukraine took advantage of these two days and did three things that were crucial: The first was that it built a dam on the Nebra River that flows into the Heren River. This Erben River runs from the dam in Nebra west of kyiv along with these three bridges and this demolition created a huge lake that could not be crossed. , the other thing Ukraine did was blow up these three bridges marked in purple so that the Russians could attack a peak that could not overcome this gap and the third thing they did was fire from two batteries of BM 27 multiple rocket launchers on the dot.

Ragan opened and destroyed the senior Russian battalion at Butcher and that was, of course, a shock to the Russians and significantly changed the war because they could not advance any further towards kyiv. But what was the defensive success? The defensive success was a combination of several things, on the one hand Ukraine learned that in 2014, when it suffered heavy losses against the Russians, they must not forget that the Russians are in Ukraine for the third time, let's think about Crimea, the separatist areas and now the situation in Ukraine. Across Ukraine, it was a mixed bag. Tactics of this year 2014 where it was recognized that you cannot stop the Russians at the border, but you have to let them enter the country and attack in depth, and that is what was done, especially with the special forces and territorial forces that come in search of supplies attacked and completely confused the device of the Russian forces, but the Ukrainians also very sensibly used modern weapons systems, such as controlled munitions in the final phase, where, for example, the Russian systems Turkish drones were recreated, which were not as successful as expected, but so successful that it was possible to repel the Russians here.

At the end of the second month, the Russians became clear that this plan could not work and tried to "We moved on to a new phase. Something quite extraordinary happened here. The Russian army has in its ranks. In ten days, 60,000 men from the zone of Kiev were transported by rail over 1,000 kilometers to the cathedral, which was a logistical masterpiece and they tried to fight with a pincer movement, so to speak, and here they also completely changed their tactics, meaning that they no longer They tried to attack quickly, narrowly and deeply, but instead they went on to attack slowly, widely and They must not forget that so far it is estimated that around seven million artillery shells have been fired by the Russian side of the 17 million that were fired.

They fired at the beginning of the war. This tactic meant that the Russians really succeeded. In the summer, those were the battles with this concept of damage and now that we are at the turning point, how will this continue, especially for the Ukrainian side How do we do it with the city's youth forces and through them? The delivery of weapons systems did. possible to regain the initiative. The crucial thing here and what was the move to phase 3 was the use of an American system, a multiple rocket launcher that had been delivered and that began to attack the Russian ammunition depots, which had such an impact in Ukraine.

This gave them the opportunity to go on the offensive themselves, the two planned were actually three, but two of them listened. The first offensive was the offensive, which was a hairy weed here due to the good situation report and the in- At that time, the situation report transmitted by the United States of America recognizes that there are gaps in the disposition of the Russians and They have made a breakthrough here with an armored battle group, they have overtaken this road-oriented battle group with light forces and have advanced positively. Then they positioned themselves in the villages and made videos with the Ukrainian flag and shared it on the social media, the Russians saw this, thought Ukraine was behind them and fled, it was the success of the hakif that was decisive, so Ukraine gained massive amounts of ground here and, among other things, equipped three Russian tank regiments , which they did.

Of course, it was worth it but they didn't manage to score a knockout. A knockout would have been taking thousands of soldiers prisoner and that was of course not the case, that is, this offensive was a points victory in similar situations. It was the case that the Ukrainian side had huge losses due to this flat terrain and the problem was that there was actually a huge attrition effect, for example. in the central zone The offensive was such that an entire brigade command was destroyed and destroyed by Russian satellites and this made it very difficult for Ukraine to continue until a situation arose, also initiated by American statements - let us think of General Miley's statement to -generalstoff-, which caused 30,000 Russian soldiers and two thousand five hundred vehicles to be withdrawn overnight over three bridges that were actually badly damaged without a single shot being fired.

It was not a knockout victory, but only a points victory that would still be here. It is possible that a large capture of dead Russian units would have had an effect on the morale of the Russian population. The third offensive would have been planned from the Saporoshi areasouth towards Militool in combination with an attack. that would destroy or damage the Kerch Strait bridge, which would have had the enormous advantage that the Russian forces in the Zaporoscia area would, in principle, have been cut off from supplies and would therefore have had other things to worry about. in addition to continuing attacking.

The exception was made very cleverly: they greatly increased the pressure at the Ton Pass. In the second line of defense in which they are located, Ukraine was forced to withdraw forces again and again and this offensive could not take hold, also due to the attrition effect and therefore the Russians know that it is possible due to the retired soldiers, apart from the space kerson, the lines approximately as they are now in the picture will also be reinforced and will begin to enter there in parallel, of course, note that in September these areas were declared Russian national territories, that is, the problem and the paradox is that despite this consequence on the battlefield, especially at the operational level, Ukraine would have challenges that we must take into account if we look at how Ukraine can continue this war or where we have to support it and, on the one hand, it is the fact that the Russians still have the initiative at one level and that is the strategic level, that is, the level that decides whether they can fight a war for a long time or not, and the Russians are also trying very intelligently and certifiably to start where they believe that the decision about this war will be made and it will not be made in Ukraine but in our countries of origin, why?

We decide here whether Ukraine will continue to receive support or not. What do I mean we start with the strategic level and that is also phase 4 that we are currently experiencing? Yesterday we experienced again, these are the massive attacks with the Marshall Corps and police rockets and drones that still continue. I'll give you some numbers: at the beginning of the war there were about 530 ballistic missiles and cruise ships when they were deployed there. Then they said it must have been because there were so many Americans deployed. in Iraq in 2003. In July, as you can see, we were at 200, then in August we were at 3,500, now recently in November we were at 4,700 and now we are at 500 200.

There were already physical rockets that had never existed. this way in the history of war. The Russian arsenals are masters, you can also see, but through this supply connection using Serian drones, possibly rockets, they have managed to maintain this momentum and the result can be easily seen expressed in two. images, that is, the destruction of critical infrastructure here compared between January and November, that was the ninth wave model that the last two worlds had. If you were to move the satellite camera to Moscow, you would see a brighter Moscow in the Tank factories are produced in three shifts and that is exactly the challenge: to understand that these critical attacks on critical infrastructure are a very difficult time for Ukraine and it's not just down to the tanks, so to speak, whether Ukraine can continue with this. war, but rather a number of other weapons systems, such as aviation systems, and we are not talking about one, two or three Patrick batteries, we are talking about dozens of supervisors that would be needed here to understand a little more about this .

War is diverse, let's just briefly remember the different Levels of modern warfare, here we have different domains, we always focus a lot on what we see on television images, of course land war, sea war, maybe air war, but we also think about space, I remember, for example, a use of Starlink, so, interestingly, this is the first conflict in which a private party is clearly on the side of a conflict that is involved in this conflict with a massive impact, but also think about the Cyberspace and an information space under cyberspace is the magic carpet on which information arrives and also reaches us and Russia.

I am trying to refer here specifically to our fears, that is, to the question of grain exports if they are not guided by migration, migratory flows. , the question of what are then a nuclear threat, so when things don't work out for Russia, missiles are brought out and shown or you think about us and you think Of course, it says about the economic situation, Russia says if you continue. support Ukraine, their economic situation in all these European countries will deteriorate enormously and that is why they will not do well and that is why it would be better if they stopped doing it, from a military point of view there are so-called centers of gravity for Ukraine The center of gravity It is the support of the West.

If Ukraine does not get these weapons systems it needs, it cannot continue this war. The answer is very simple. Also remember that the United States is massively supportive here and think about the demands as well. The example now being discussed wins. Regarding tank transport, General Saluschnee, head of organic materials, said that to return to the offensive we need 300 tanks, between 6 and 700 infantry fighting vehicles and 500 natural systems. we have commitments of almost 150 tanks, that is half of about 100 infantry fighting vehicles compared to the six to 700 needed and 70 artillery systems compared to the 500 needed, this shows the delta we have, I will use another example , the American National Systems, 20 were delivered, Ukraine would have requested between 50 and 100, 50 to 100 would have been a great advance from a military point of view.

The Americans were successful but they only delivered 20. Ask yourself how is it possible, why are there only 20. 20 of them, why are there no fighter jets, why are there no other children's position weapons? It remains true that all these ballistic missiles and tactical drones could hit the United States, but the United States can easily disrupt or destroy the Russians' satellite navigation. The reason is that the United States is not interested in escalation, that is, when things are going well for the Russians, the United States is attracted. That's what we're seeing right now in the discussion about arms deliveries and you've all heard about tanks. but there has also been talk about Rammstein and it will probably happen that a system with a longer range, these 160 km precision weapons, will be available here, in the room on the other side, the center of gravity of the Russian side is the population and While the Russian population supports the regime, it will continue, even if we are convinced that our sanctions are the cornerstone.

From the Russian point of view, things are not bad for them, yes, they are not so bad that Moskvita and St. Petersburgers are in the women's camp, but these are the soldiers who are behind the morality of names, They have never heard of the mineral level of Samara or Oman and exactly these soldiers are also the ones who are now the mass of them here where they are fighting. The front, so to speak, and Russia had a problem, so it started to have too few soldiers and now it is trying to eradicate it, which means it is playing with exactly this time factor and now it is trying to bring in these reservists and the Ukraine longer. is forced not to go on the offensive, a stronger Russia can of course position itself here and possibly go on the offensive, so I'm at the bottom.

The message is that it's not over yet and I'd still like to finish. With a quote from Karl Kraus I would like to ask you to briefly internalize what Karl Graus said about war, that is, first the hope that one will get better, then the expectation that the other will get worse, then the satisfaction of the other. doesn't get better and then laughs, surprise that they both do worse and there is a lot of truth in that and if I may be allowed a more historical comparison, we have just arrived from 1914 to 1915. Of course the historical framework was different back then , but the atmosphere in 1915 was one of disillusionment, if one has established that all these assumptions that were made on all sides of the warring parties did not come true and if you want Ukraine to win this war, you cannot achieve it. that if you continue to lament but have to decide whether to enter this conflict shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine or admit yourself as a post-heroic society you cannot do that, but then you would have to do everything possible to end this war, there are only these two options, thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, I'm glad you came and it was a little early, almost a little disappointed because I saw that only the lights were on, but in the meantime that has changed accordingly.

I would like to present some images and after presenting the current situation I will simply present some ideas on how this war will affect future global conditions and in particular on the power structure in Europe and for this purpose I will start with the first image, which is Just to see it , what is the image of NATO at the beginning of 2022, everything that is blue, the NATO states are light blue, they are aspirants, that is, candidates. At the time, Sweden and Finland were largely unknown in the north and Bosnia was also a candidate for NATO membership.

Then there were the neutral countries. At that time Switzerland and Austria were in the middle and at that time Belarus was not integrated into the Russian army. The structures cannot be imagined and then there are the number of countries that have special relations with NATO, Serbia, Ukraine, the Caucasian countries and also with the Central Asian countries, on very different bases. With the war in Ukraine, these relations have changed significantly and if we ask the question, what is the situation like? Like now, then we come to the image this way, an image or semicircle is supposed to express that Ukraine is getting a new European front line, that is, a new front line that is actually surprisingly strong, a high military capability which extends from the North Cape to the Black Sea, is essentially supported by four more, namely the two new candidates or those already in the accession process, Sweden and Finland, Poland and Ukraine on the edge, maybe a little Romania, but these four countries are the keys not only to the current situation, but also to future defense to an extent that would not have been believed a year ago.

On the one hand, Ukraine has shown through these fighting last year what kind of army it is, the capabilities it already has and of course, this has been added recently. The military capacity in Poland is a country that is rearming monsters, they have ordered more than 1,000 tanks, not in Europe but in South Korea, hundreds of aircraft, artillery systems, etc. The budget is also constitutionally set at more than three percent of the gross national product has been increased and we have a clear will to ensure that there is a corresponding future in Sweden, which has high capabilities in all three dimensions, both in the air and in the land, with a relatively low level of landscape and Finland in particular, arguably has the best reserve army in Europe, both in terms of personnel and preparation, hundreds of thousands are also perfectly equipped, so to speak, everything is perfectly prepared. for an operation and these four states together will form in the future a counterweight to Russia, which will have so much strength thanks to the thickness of the wall, if we add Luca 200,000 full increases to 300,000 soldiers, then it will have almost 50% more. soldiers than the Federal Republic of Germany and more the capabilities of Sweden and Finland - will soon gather without conflict a number of 100,000 men in a million and this is, without a doubt, something completely newThe situation is because these four meters are actually prepared for a conflict in their security consciousness and are ready to understand in time what the consequences of this are, the consequence of the war in Ukraine, we doubt that the Baltic Sea de facto sounds like NATO has become larger, currently there are only two narrow entrances, that is, on the one hand, near St.

Petersburg, Wieburg, and it is the oblastkalinika, everything else in the future will be dominated by NATO, so to speak, moderated by NATO, that is. that northern Europe, which is firmly established both in terms of land and sea, has become a natural space and simply means that there is no longer a future for Russia in the north and how the situation has been reversed, something that perhaps I I would like to point out It is shown in the following image. It certainly has a common border with Russia of more than 1,300 kilometers, but that is not the decisive factor.

The crucial thing is that up here, Murmansk, is the most important ice-free port in Russia and not just the most important. important ice-free port, they also have several high-quality brigades stationed there, there are a total of six brigades there, but what is even more important is that the Cola Peninsula, which is the most important place for Russia's nuclear capabilities and at the same time, Murat is also the place where the Russian submarine fleet is located and you have to know that two thirds of the nuclear submarines, that is, the submarines, are also very successful and that is what this says image.

Actually, I'm just saying that on the surface it just shows that there are access and disruption options from the Finnish side to the Russian side. You have to know that everything is very sparsely populated.Around Murmanskerung there is no other place for almost 800 million kilometers that is very isolated but which means that there has been or will be a GEOS related change of the daily situation in the nuclear sector through this same membership of the fingers in the NATO. If we look further, another image emerges, that is, not only in the north what has changed but We are looking in the middle.

I have already mentioned the changes in Poland, but through these efforts the colts are doing both in terms of personnel and equipment, but especially in terms of activities, and that together with the geostrategic situation, that is. the fact that Poland is not only an immediate neighbor of Ukraine is too much better for Russia for the oblast and at the same time also for the Baltic Sea, so to speak, a combination arises that creates a new religious strategic centrality that I will undoubtedly change the situation completely, specifically in the sense that I will change the situation of other countries as a result of this situation, perhaps I will speak a few moments later, but the most important consequence that follows from this is that a reality What returns to the image of reality through this situation is the strength of the frontline states and Poland as the center of all strategic activities and at the same time as the anchor of relations with the United States and even as a focus for Atlantic relations .

Pacific cooperation in the arms sector I believe that the situation of neighboring states has changed significantly and this is for the first time in the history of Germany. This is becoming de facto the rear wheel, this is the factor that is losing strategic centrality in Europe for the first time. This means that it really is a newspaper that has disappeared. In the long term it will also have political consequences, although it is not evident at the moment, but he is analyzing fundamental changes in the geostrategic situation, we continue, nothing has changed. But something is also changing in the south of the conflict: Turkey's position as a moderator between Ukraine and Russia was especially highlighted, as a country that also supplies wheat to a large part of the country on the world sea route, both Russia and Ukraine, It has more or less guarantee, but that is not the only thing;

Turkey has also increasingly distanced itself, so to speak, from the partnership with NATO, but from the center of NATO, that the interests lie not so much in the Western alliance as in the creation of its own great power, at least will bring regional order to North Africa and that will certainly change the situation significantly in the future, these are predominantly the areas that form Russia's main geostrategic interest and in this sense, on the one hand, there is quite good cooperation between Turkey and , for the moment, but in the long term, of course, a position of rivalry that should not be underestimated. are the global changes then we will see weight, that is why I have tried to show that with this image the five great natural global potentials the EU Russia China and India the most important is without a doubt that the war in Ukraine has brought a rapprochement between America and Europe , at least in the military sphere, it is very clear that it is NATO, the boss said just two years ago that he died here, etc., he lives to an extent that he had never lived before, etc., and this new connection with Poland, the Nordic states and Ukraine will certainly improve. create a completely new situation in the long term, on the other hand something has happened regarding Russia Russia has many strengths but also many weaknesses.

One of the greatest strengths was undoubtedly its military strength, also in the conventional sphere, and we all have Overestimated that. It also shows that this military weakness and the resulting political weakness also have an impact on the previous areas of influence, as I already mentioned above, where the regions are in contrast to the interests of Turkey and Russia is more or less affected by The consequences of the war in Ukraine and actions forced us to orient ourselves economically towards China and to strengthen cooperation there, because otherwise there are no alternatives corresponding on a larger scale, which means we have a stronger connection between the United States and Europe, on the one hand.

On the one hand, and on the other, China and Russia, and this is undoubtedly a constellation that will have repercussions in a wide variety of areas for many years. India's situation India has always been a long-standing friend and partner of Russia and will continue to be so. In the future, perhaps not to the same extent as before, India will have many new common interests in the United States, but in essence the conclusion is probably that, as they used to say, only children play the Chinese card and only children themselves kids can say that. An Indian card is played by India itself and no one else.

Yes, that is the new constellation that emerges there and, without a doubt, I also say that in the military or political sphere as far as this is concerned, it will have consequences if we ask ourselves or it could always be that Russia could work in case of a defeat. Personally I see that it is possible to divide what should be divided to the maximum, that is the only thing that I do not see otherwise in reality, but what really worries me is the structure of the Russian military units, if you think that the troops Brigoshi's Wagner group currently has 50,000 men in Russia and if you are wondering what will happen to this number and this training after a war in Ukraine, regardless of whether it is in the Middle East or in Africa or wherever, then you have to think about This today, that is its own element is the sea as daish or old that everyone has had in the best of times that means that something new arises the doubt is of great importance, so soon I will come to the end very briefly, what follows two People also emerge from political cooperation and Russia is developing new opportunities in the Arctic, Central Asia and North Africa, but especially when it comes to raw materials.

I would just like to point out very briefly that today, in the global production of important raw materials, none of the 14 modern raw materials, so to speak, China, are coming, and very few people are aware of this. This means that China is making a great raw material in a certain area and now, on the other hand, due to the new partnership with Russia, of course in the energy sector, oil and gas, but also in many other things it is eating the stable, copper, wood, etc. That is, this is a new constellation that results from this we come or I will come to the conclusion.

I will show that this is just dependence on Russian raw materials as a whole. a selection that I will not go into detail because these are definitely different dependencies for Europe and for the entire world. The last image or penultimate image is what I clearly identify is who or less a tendency towards bipolarity due to this development, i.e. West and appropriately, i.e. more or less Minus the tendency that can be determined to the maximum, one could say yes, perhaps also the rapprochement of its Third World as it was during the Cold War, this time led by India.

What does this really mean for European security policy? I have said before that this change, that is, the eastern shield, the new centrality of Poland for European defense policy, also reveals at the same time the weakness of the lack of leadership in Europe, both through Paris and Berlin and , above all, of the inability If the two have worked together until now, one could resign themselves to there being nothing left of it. Perhaps it is, or at least in theory it could be, a starting point for new initiatives. What I mean by this? The new eastern defense is a defensive protection that essentially I focus solely on the alignment with Russia but what remains is the motorist is just that Africa is the new This is the Caucasus region is Central Asia and Europe has or would have an extensive area of responsibility in that A safe zone will only be possible if there is true solidarity between Paris and Berlin, which on the other hand makes it difficult a year later and, on the other hand, a country that has forgotten that it also has a task in security policy despite of everything.

Surely the time has come to rethink this and not even the two of them will be able to do it alone in the future. It will only succeed if, as I said, we manage to find solidarity with Brussels itself or something like the Weimar Triangle, which in reality only exists on paper, a reflection of the past on culture and other things. There is talk of security, then you can also see something for Europe about why otherwise there is a vacuum in North Africa in the nanostay the Americans leave there, there is no one there if Europe does not come in, that is , Turkey, then it is Russia or another man, there is no alternative to that, that means that my final image is actually a plea for Europeans to be included in the future.

The security policy will not be so much the concentration on the danger from the East, which Werder is less concerned about being within the framework of the next four states or being supported by these four states, and Paris and Berlin should concentrate on Africa, the Middle East. in the Balkers and in the central axis, then Europe has the opportunity to play a role if it is successful, that will be the future. Thank you very much before I give you the opportunity to ask a few more questions. Now we're having this huge discussion. about these Leopard tanks which, by the way, they themselves said that Ukraine wanted 300 at most 150, it will be Moscow's reactions that were expected, a great rhetorical accumulation was also expected.

Rocket attacks were expected starting today. What military value do all of these have? It must be understood that the conflict has currently become a positional war. Ukraine initially repelled the Russian attack very successfully. The failure of the Russian army was mainly due to the fact that the Russian armies were of a type and in a manner where one could clearly know that other parameters had been assumed, that is, the Russian armed forces are not as weak as we now imagine, but in reality it is his fault that they invaded in this way while the forces are here.

Now the conflict has played a completely different role and taken a completely different turn. You also have to understand that Ukraine receives massive support. Let's think, for example, about the entire intelligence sector. Ukraine receives reconnaissance data from the US .US from the US without delay, constantly 247 reconnaissance of Eastern Ukraine not directly, but with appropriate platforms that can investigate the country and this data gives Ukraine the basis to carry out targeted attacks. If this data does not If they were available, they couldn't do it. It's no secret what I'm telling you. Here, you can do that. It's easy to read, there's a great interview with the head of the US military intelligence service.

He says he's never seen in his 35 years military career that a country that is not in nature receives intelligence in such a timely manner. That is a very clear factor, but as I explained before, the United States has no interest in escalating, so Russia and Ukraine are working, the Americans They are trying to move the Russians and the question about him loses strength before, it is also called bowling. England is the rock, that means you're slowly trying to get the Russians to surrender, but the Big Elephant and the room and that, so to speak, are the Atom.

This has to be kept in mind very clearly, even if we say ourselves, well, they won't use it, but it is and it plays a role. The role of this Leopard battlefield that is now being delivered is being fulfilled because the Americans also agreed to deliver it in action, that is what led Chancellor Scholz to do it because they are also involved here, so to speak, and of course he had a certain domino effect. That's what these 150 pieces are now, let's briefly think about the Russian personnel. The Russians had around 3,300 tanks at the time. At the beginning of the war, of which they lost 1,300, 1,300 more than all of Europe combined, which means that they still remain, they have between 10 and 11,000 tanks in their arsenal, many of which are in very poor condition considering their moderate size. size and then take a quick look at what happens to them in the repair fortresses so they are guilty in the next few weeks, we will have collected another 2000, we have 4000.

You have to fight them all, the Russian approach was always completely different in the West , the Russians also knew in the Soviet Union that they could not keep up with the technological best. Their idea was always that of the masses, that is, they said that we needed four Soviet D 72 models to destroy a Western country. The battle where 3D 72 will be destroyed but the fourth is the one that will attack these Western main battle tanks in front of me from different directions and we will also see that these main battle tanks that are surrendered will have losses, it depends on how good the Ukrainian is. more capable of being trained with these vehicles and the point is that these vehicles are therefore important and that leads me to the question because they are trying to get out of this trench warfare and that is also the reason why the tank was In the First World War, in this devastating situation in Flanders, tanks were the means to return to warmovement and then they had great success in World War II and here also the reason is that people are trying to get out of this movement position, that is the purpose of this weapon, but the army works like clockwork, just can show the time because nothing is said when all these little gears and screws do their job and the tank is a gear, they are missing but many other things that go with it and think about the domain Only the tank itself will not protect the critical infrastructure from Ukraine, so it needs air defense here, it needs its own air force, as Chancellor Scholz said, so we are no longer talking about combat aircraft, so we now rule out that we want to win a modern war without an air force, we are left It allows.

We don't talk about things, we love things the way they want. Finland and Sweden are not in NATO. "That might be the case, but that's not the case right now. They also said that Americans always give enough so that you can then choose green. You can express this in a powerful way about living too little and dying too much." . I have used exactly this phrase several times, it gets to the point and that is the point that if I continue like this then it will not work and as a Western community of values ​​that we are and the things that we always adopt the banners of European human rights, we have to consider the question in an honest and self-critical way, so we have a totalitarian beginning that has attacked another democratic State like ours. values ​​and join this fight on the side of Ukraine, we will not do it.

I always ask at this point, while you are ready to send your child to Ukraine, who would be willing? Point out who would be We're already going to go ourselves, so we deliver weapons to Ukraine and hope that somehow it works, imagine a woman being raped and you pass by and see that and you throw like pepper spray and you say, try yes, but please not too much because otherwise it might come. Me too, that's the situation so either we help myself or not whatever we have to do because if we continue as before we will only prolong the suffering and that is the problem they are making with this deduction Herson speaking 30,000 soldiers and I saw a video of them, They had a deal with the churches, there was a team, they say without a shot being fired and there are already very good reports that children were involved in the background.

The issue of the delivery of combat aircraft is very well documented. Even in American newspapers we simply forget about it. The second person, in my opinion, was definitely capable of causing such a cosmic situation by capturing or surrounding these 30,000 men, which happened in exactly the same time period that we have a journey. From the American security advisor in Kielf, he will not have traveled there to have a coffee but to discuss clear things and, above all, we have the statements of the American general substance Miley and that is not just anyone, what did he say? The first to say that the exception was about 100,000 dead and wounded, but Ukraine also suffered the same number of dead and wounded and the glorious victory of the organic army in person would now, of course, be the possibility of starting negotiations was contradicted by the Ukrainian part.

You have to understand that Ukraine gets its morale mainly from success in kyiv, also with Haki from other places, of course it needs support for this, but you can see very clearly that this is the case. The US side is also trying to exert pressure. , just like with these internal systems, why 20, why not 50 or 100? They have more than 300. Why did Ukraine allow these 30,000 men to withdraw? They probably couldn't help it, so there was an agreement in the background, but ultimately nothing political. helped, don't bite, you basically have to play along, but how else could it be that 30,000 men can retreat overnight over three heavily damaged and destroyed bridges?

But it's not just this question, it's also the other question I asked him "We have to be realistic. We are spectators in Europe in this conflict, yes, we are trying to act in solidarity here, but we realize that we have challenges, let's think about Hungary, Turkey has the legs, it is also doing politics. Iran is interesting at the moment, a country that has been under the strictest sanctions regime since Suffering for years and decades and yet has become a drone superpower which has delivered more than 800 drones to the Russian Federation without help from abroad without technological help there are always ways and means I recently saw a video where you have a Russian drone disassembled and people were making fun of the fact that inside there are basically components from a store of models.

From a military point of view, I tell you that it is the perfect drone. If you open a European drone, you will see a black box that says: do not open it, send it for repair. If you can assemble this drone yourself, that is the perfect one and then you will make it very clear that it is incredible. What Ukraine has achieved in this short time, including through its own resources. We must not forget that Ukraine also has a very, very high share in the Soviet Union in the arms industry, for example, yes, these engineers, these technicians, The performance is incredible, yes, so the problem was that the use of these national systems led to the destruction of these ammunition depots.

As a result, Russia began to loosen these ammunition depots and protected its own pilots with them in systems that panicked systems were able to fight these national systems again must provide the United States with missiles that combat these strikes systems again that this missile was usable but Ukraine managed to do it in the few fighter jets that they themselves brought. It's a back and forth essentially what we see here, but it's always too little to even get it through your people or think about this question with the missiles, how Could it be that these political missiles, drones with marshmallow bodies, still reach targets?

There are several countries that can disrupt or destroy satellites. navigation China Russia United States and Israel why don't you do it they say because you don't want this escalation yes, boiling the frog the frog shouldn't even realize it's being cooked it's dead essentially that's exactly the problem you see now that solidarity and the courage of the park they follow the Russians on the second line Wagner Wagner is meat from the Russian perspective, there are no people visible from the Russian perspective, they threw the meat to Ukraine and Ukraine has it and then the Russians shot them like their grandparents and forced them to withdraw from Melitta Pool where they were needed and achieve this breakthrough.

The situation after this success in Solidar is good and it is possible that some good guys will fall into this second line in the near future because the situation is very critical, now they have done the same. We're all talking about tanks. What is more interesting in Rammstein, what was discussed was precision weapons with a range of 160 km, which is twice the range of the systems, not yet. The 300 kilometers that Ukraine demands, at least 160 kilometers, would again put pressure on the Russians, because now they would have to move from 70 kilometers from their combat positions to 160 kilometers and also spend logistics accordingly.

That would buy Ukraine time again, but it is not the decisive success: the trick is always in the details. In recent weeks we have seen this leopard fight not only with the Americans, who will then both do the same with these, they have been defense ministers for quite some time, how do you estimate the general political result? environment of who is Scholz now the loser, therefore the winner who is Scholz has doubts without now having announced to both that he will be successful at least in the country to the extent that he is able to boost his own party to complement and there are two forces that should not be underestimated, waiting against any support for Ukraine.

In general, it does not have a meter yet. If I may say so, the only question that really arises is whether Germany is capable of taking on a leading role in terms of security policy and with all the drama, reality has only shown that this is not the case, but only when others say it. Dependency has risen to excess and, as I said, this is the really big problem we have. that we face on the European stage, that is, the question is: is there anyone in Europe who is capable of making and carrying out decisions? We are totally dependent on them in terms of security policy, the Americans and if they do not succeed at least in sideshows, if I may say so, in North Africa, in the Middle East, etc., to achieve at least partial success, the world will regroup and reshape itself, but completely without Europe we will play no role except you.

You will see that now I say that a great power with very limited resources like Turkey, a great regional power, actually one with a reach tells the giants, maybe on the occasion of February 9th we will make the issue big, Turkey is making it big . Here in this case we are certainly working on a very interesting issue. They described this new protective shield that was later transferred to Eastern Europe. They said Germany was no longer in the geostrategic position for the first time if you think back 20 years with Donald Trump. At the beginning of the Iraq war, old and new Europe were divided, the former communist states, the problems, the old, Germany, the French.

This has become a reality with a delay of 20 years. Actually, yes. , you can definitely say thanks to Germany. It must be said that I experienced it myself. I say how strong the Americans are in Germany. They also trusted and relied on security in the security area. Throughout the Cold War period. "Germany was, of course, the beginning and the end of European conventional defense. They also expected that Germany would later take on an important role in the further development. That did not happen, that was the end. From the point of view of the Americans, the very pragmatic approach actually led people to say "okay, now the activities that I am going to carry out in the future will not only remain in this specific case of protection against Russia, but Warsaw will become the future anchor for the Americans." a security policy in Europe and not only that, but if you think deeper, it will probably also be the first concrete starting point for greater cooperation in the Pacific region, which is already visible in NATO doctrines, so to speak, and that is the immediate consequence.

Imagine that in Europe we have a de facto united or common market for everything, more pronounced today in agriculture because it is totally and absolutely non-existent in the field of security. , each country produces its own equipment, even we do not have what they know exactly Maybe I think there are 23 types of armored personnel carriers in Europe because each country produces them themselves and is not able to reduce them to one, two or more than three models, which of course has enormous consequences on the shape. Arms companies can no longer invest in a truly future-oriented way: the small market emerging in Germany is capable of producing a dozen or two dozen tanks in a year.

It does not tell us a sales volume that can be financed with investments for the future. That is impossible, which means that Europe is losing not only in the field of military technology, but also in terms of technology as a whole, because not all, except Many technological advances have their origin in the military field because there, for Of course, not competition but superiority is the decisive criterion and it has a much stronger impact than in all other areas and, in this sense, technology is much more important there than in all other areas and yes, little by little We will be left behind, at the moment Europe does not buy tanks, planes, howitzers, etc. in America, but in South Korea it is a major alarm signal.

I wanted to ask him why. First of all, South Korea in particular and how does Poland finance these investments in this direction? Yeah, I don't know how they get both Poles to finance, but I guess they'll probably get American help too. In fact, they already have. "I passed resolutions in Parliament about listing. There are also resolutions in the government where such quantities will be purchased. It is a matter of time. I already had the first deliveries at the beginning of this year. Let's be clear and that will continue of course Of course, we will also build production facilities for South Korean tanks and other equipment in Poland, which means we want this to be an advantage if you can probably also become an export country, but that is what is at stake.

Overall, of course, the European Union "This component must be said very clearly, to a point that is totally underestimated in Europe. Maybe a short addition, yes, the situation is much worse if we assume that this war will last a long time and that if there is not something in Russia like in October 1917 then they will continue with everything that entails, especially because of this disappointment and shame of the lost victory. From their point of view, they remember 1918 and then years later 1939, things are a breeding ground when this war lasts the longer it takes a long time then Ukraine will continue to need our help if thatis the case then our defense factories would now have to make requests to manufacture but they don't war economy practical war economy practically the defense industry says we need guarantees The head of Rheinmetall recently did not have a gummy bear factory, yes You want us to manufacture, so you give us guarantees, then we will install new plants and you know what the demographic situation is in the labor market. to war in 2015 after the Russians attacked Ukraine for the second time after Crimea there was a survey in Europe by the Galopp Institute but they were asked if they were ready with weapons to defend the country in Germany 18 percent in Austria 21 percent cent now we have repeated this recently 23 percent that we have achieved, they can put 100 billion euros into the Bundeswehr if they do it.

There are no soldiers who use these weapons because they are convinced that they have to defend their country, that will not help them, that is the problem, the will is there, there is no interest in defending our values, they will preach but they will not be willing to defend themselves. I have to change something very radically, I have already talked enough from here, I see the first connection in the third row. , wait a moment, someone will come to you, go to the third, yes, thank you, I just wanted to know what is the proportion of people prepared for defense in France, again in Holland or Great Britain, except in France, the number was very little right I can remember with just under 29 percent in the United States with 44 in Russia I think with 47 in the USA with 59% and Ukraine it was relatively high of course due to the events of 2014 China such once stands out Even so, with more than 60%, perhaps the survey in China is not entirely representative.

On the one hand, thank you very much for your honest and direct words, which I expect from many Austrian politicians and which I will surely share also in my area. My other question is for you, Mr Faßlerint, how do you really assess the EU-NATO joint declaration, taking into account the upcoming presidential elections in the United States and, at the same time, as you said, the lack of common security ambition? of the EU? And defense policy? But we want to collect questions or answers. I was glad it was that way. This joint statement was made because it shows that at least in Brussels von der Leyen is aware of this, probably especially since she herself was Minister of Defense. and there is no doubt that cooperation will be absolutely necessary so that Germany does not completely lose sight of the future reconstruction program in Ukraine, that we will be the decisive factor in our being able to gain a foothold here again and at least assume a certain leadership role in the economic and technological field.

Peter Fritz, long-time correspondent, I believe, reports from the image of the ORF trip and do you really know how much of the heimas remains? "The walls at that time still had a lot of urgent system because I think you can only believe what you really see and this is a video showing destruction, so you can see that the Russian weapons systems have actually destroyed a lot of weapons systems supplied by the West. Think, for example, of this Triple 7 weapon, but there is not a single video yet. what documents that a domestic system was destroyed Russia says two would have destroyed several but as I said there is still no video like this the system domestic was before mostly his speech because he was able to do it very quickly and not catch the Russian Counterfire, but the problem is, as I said, the quantity and the ammunition.

Now you can see that this homely effect has faded again. We may have heard talk about this case on New Year's Eve makifka In this school, these Russian soldiers were "It was a coup and that was cited as an example of the incompetence of the Russian commanders. That's true, but the question is why was there only one magiva and why weren't there dozens of them? That shows us that the Russians are obviously capable of adapting. "This example of activated carbon shows us perhaps an aspect that I think is important. There was even a brief discussion between the military leaders in kyiv and the American general on the issue of quantity, that is, the question of whether kyiv should use this activated carbon.

Area bombing or these intensive Russian bomber masters should or should not respond with a similar number was questioned by the Americans because there is no doubt that these American systems are much more focused on precise effects and not on areas, which It means that there is certainly something where even during a war there are discussions about what is the best way, how can you best respond, etc. and I think the homeland question must also be seen in this context, there are solutions or analysts who say that Russia has only used 20% of its potential in Ukraine and that this real estate production is carried out secretly, but how do you estimate that a colonel and the second question are arms deliveries to Ukraine?

Yes, that's wonderful, but what about the personnel who occupy all these tanks? Yes, Ukraine can. And how many NATO soldiers are currently in Ukraine? There is talk that Poland already has 20,000 soldiers stationed in Ukraine. There is also talk that Poland may have parts. of Ukraine under your control. How do you estimate it? Let's start with the capabilities of the Russian army. As I said, you have to understand that the idea of ​​the Russian invasion was to achieve a decision with a decapitation attack and thus allow a few forces to take possession of the country relatively quickly.

You have your elite units deployed because everyone played their role, the wrong megas were responsible for the main attack, the goods units marched forward and so on. That was not so. It does not work because of the events that I have already told you and because of the very clever tactics used by Ukraine and that for the last eight years Ukraine has developed with its own weapons with its own training because these things were the problem for the Russians. They say they depleted their elite here, their elite associations suddenly met resistance because they didn't expect it and now they have the problem that they are stuck in a conflict that they didn't go into at full force and now they are trying to fix it. eradicate it and they are doing it by bringing soldiers.

The quality of the soldiers they are bringing in now, of course, is not comparable to the soldiers who are also in At first they have fallen, so now they have the level of training they received but of course they have a mass, that The problem is that Russia now he's trying to get out of this fiasco at the beginning, which he's slowly adapting to, he does it over and over again in these phases we've already seen, so thanks to the ammo depots, that basically means loosening up, retreating, etc. The decision to go strategically nebulous along with this attack on infrastructure is something he hasn't done for a long time if he thought it would fall into his hands and with that he could control Ukraine by basically allocating electricity. and all these things The big decision was made by you, even in this general aspect of two things: the withdrawal of people, the correction of this front, the Russian point of view and the October 10 attack on critical infrastructure.

The second thing is that I don't need to send NATO soldiers to Ukraine. I'll take mine off. The uniform, I will sign a contract and I will go to Ukraine. I am no longer a member of the Austrian armed forces but a contract employee. That is the solution we see, so I cannot rule out that in Ukraine there are a large number of foreigners but not automatic soldiers My name is Dietmar Zoder Association of Austrian Engineers Thank you very much for the two interesting presentations. The Federal Minister also really liked what you said. My question is addressed to Mr.

Oberstreisen. Have we defined a goal in the West in this conflict? I think that our goal of ending your terrible war as soon as possible may be hampered with tanks. I wonder what the objective is. and what is the strategy for this objective, that is the crucial question and it is a political question, we always reach an agreement that we must end this war, we want them to not be so united in Europe, there are also no Baltic states, the first states of central and eastern Europe Britain who say now is the time now we will show the big guys where workers and farmers suppliers of raw materials belong but there are other sides who say and these are also powerful states Germany Italy France well, we can move forward where it will end we also have a real economic war Europe has consumed 42 percent of its raw materials from Russia now we can say from one moment to the next that nothing is happening in Austria either 83% of the gas that we have a mild winter and the government has taken the right measures so that we do not feel the effect that was warned about, but that is the crucial political question and again that is why Dr.

Fassl said that this leadership, this force is needed here unifying strategy that says Okay, either we support Ukraine with everything that entails, then it is a decision that will prevail or we admit to a Europe as a post-heroic society that we are not prepared for that and we try to end this war too if that means negotiations and even if that means a situation in Munich in 1938 that in the middle will not help usRussian time and time are the decisive factors: we have the clocks, Russian time or when it comes to cinema and other countries. I think you have all heard the Indian Foreign Minister's interview with Armin Wolf six months ago.

He brought another interesting interview. said his The problems in Europe are not our problems and if we buy cheap oil from the Russians then it is only good and we can afford it to a certain extent and we have to sell this oil to you, the Europeans, at three times the price it is then. It is only good and fair, we are happy when both Shishi bin shake hands and do you think the Chinese are not on the Russian side? Who among them took note of the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China, where at the end there was a "The press statement of the two foreign ministers said that no one wanted this progress to stop both peoples and that the unity of the Russian people cannot be questioned.

If you look at a Chinese newspaper, you will read completely different things. What you read here means that we have to show real seriousness. We have to recognize that this situation will not simply disappear, all the time before February 24 will not return and if We, as Europe and also in Austria, do not seriously try to take all the measures if we take precautions and survive the next few years, for example with regard to raw materials, to the economic situation, to security policy, then we will have great problems that may no longer affect most of them, but we owe it to our children and grandchildren.

I have three children. I have no interest in an escalation but my role now is with them. I owe it to my children to convey to them that the situation It is serious, perhaps a very brief comment, there are two people without a clear objective and without any writing "What can be determined is that there is a strategic objective of the West that says that Russia is allowed to do it with its military aggression. There is nothing to be gained from military aggression, that is more or less the big goal, but Ukraine never has to win." That doesn't mean that Ukraine can't win in the sense that it is now copying parts of Russia, but the question What does that mean?

Russia is not allowed to make profits and here the opinion of Ukraine and others differs quite a bit. Ukraine says that it is fine, that the entire territory of the country must be reconquered, everything else is impossible, while others They suppose that they say okay, the status quota, that is, the status of 2014, not before 2014 but after 2014, is what is relevant. And after Crimea, after the cream, we must realistically say that a conquest of the Thunder, that is, from now on, by Ukraine, is extremely unlikely and would require an effort that would not be evaluated very realistically.

The same thing happens in Crimea, although not to the same extent as now and Luansk, but of course there is also the question of whether the strategic impact will be great. I talked before about Mare Nostrum in the Baltic Sea, if Russia loses Sevastopol and Crimea loses, of course, This also means a fiasco in the Black Sea of ​​a similar magnitude. Ukraine will have to build its own navy in the future, for example, no doubt, simply to ensure its grain exports, but in this area, I say. that now in 2014 and throughout the national territory is actually a question that cannot have a definitive answer and that will probably be decided on the battlefield.

I have been waiting for a long time to see if anyone from the podium or the audience will discuss the brewing dispute within NATO between Sweden and Finland. After all, if you look at the current status quo, the Finns are already saying please , we won't do that. How should I say sympathy for the Swedes, who want to end it? in Finland anyway, is that we should back off and dispense with our policy ambitions.security as a true frontline state. To join NATO while Sweden cannot join, the question arises for me whether the magenstrum is really ready in the hands of nature as it currently is or whether there is still news to come and the second question is that Turkey's Thomas Theater will it will become quieter or disappear again with the election of the Turkish president next year, or will it not?

I have learned that officers, especially general materials professionals, always calculate with the one who has the worst chance and I hope that Turkey has tasted blood at this moment, so to speak, when it comes to playing in the big concert of the greats or of the big ones that are coming and if Turkey really prevents Sweden from joining NATO with its attitude, then we must not forget that there are already voices in the United States that say that Turkey should be excluded from NATO for its behavior detrimental to the associations , but that we do not always take into account Turkey's strategic position, so there is something in the bush here, so to speak, that I can manifest overnight and that I believe we are essential and more important.

As for the question of whether 14 German Leopards come to Ukraine or not, from my point of view the accession of Sweden and Finland is de facto over, even if there are delays here, that will not be seen then and I say even assuming that Turkey for years. Sweden would have a special status through a treaty between the United States, Great Britain and other golden countries, etc., which would de facto have the same effect, i.e. participation or integration. It can be assumed that this is what happened in reality and in This respect is also important Because Sweden had a special sense of development when Russia raised the idea in 2018 and reacted, everyone else dismissed it as a side effect for the Swedes, it was different and Sweden had already said before if there was an attack on the Baltic States, then we will not be neutral, which means that we will continue to have this status, which means that I guess it is essentially just a matter of time and if is not regulated properly, it will be regulated sloppily. relationship, as they say in Vienna, thank you.

I wanted one thing, dear Werner, you talked about Turkey as a great power game, what happens is that you forget the role that Iran plays, which is exactly what these great powers do and a The second thing we had in the city of Vienna a few days ago is a great stabilization. Following the course of all these energy discussions in the EU, four countries that are likely to play an important role are also crystallizing. One of them is Poland, which is interesting. , also plays an important role here and they represent the positions that really influence American politics with the surrender of the stained emperor and so on, hence the king, this discussion that we have heard now, Europe is losing power everywhere, it is a little bit Also lost in this debate is the extent to which we as Europeans still have a self-determining position or how he is now simply an appendage of the That's why I say it and I say it to illustrate any misunderstanding. "I am sitting here and sympathizing with Ukraine and the whole world is starting this war against me, but it is still in the critical night phase.

What would have happened to the Minzkey process? Maybe I don't want to say that Ukraine will not join NATO , there is also a way to Let's see if we have not escalated in this matter and I also give a mirror because I was standing in the Arab area. If you look at the environment in the Arab country and in all these developing countries, it is quite interesting that many are not Russia attacks Ukraine, but somehow they are happy that the West or the Americans are, so to speak, controlled, because after all they have already gotten into many wars, so to speak. now I hear this, with these thousand tanks and the Russians have four times as many, it could also be that this reluctance to hand over the tanks is also related to the fact that these poor people have nothing left and they don't want to give up the last of their tanks and what it looks like.

So overall, we can ramp up production that quickly. That's a question that's already been answered, but can we keep up because what I'm hearing is terrible? Then say it. I what you have with pure metal 20 Leopard 82 today tank Leopard 1 that are rusty or are standing somewhere it could also be that that is the reason not because if I want to rate it but I really can't do it in All. Maybe I would use the first and last question so we can figure it out together as an example. The weapons, of course, that is why the discussion was so big because in the second weapons we handed over the old oriental models, the Polish ones the D-72 and so on, now is the time to get down to work, now our arsenals are being attacked and we don't have much.

After the Cold War, the Scorpions had the wind of change and they abolished all that and thought that the future of warfare would be these counterinsurgency operations and that is what we are now and everything we give now comes from our arsenal, the capabilities mountain of tanks that they supply to us. That was from the existing arsenal, Germany's 40 Marders, a Panzergrenadier battalion, there is one Marder and they are delivered to Ukraine and of course the question arises: what is left? It is even true that the Austrian federal army is better equipped in some areas than in other short-range air defense areas of other European countries, yes.

We have these 24 pieces, we still have them, we want to improve them now, yes, Germany no longer has the irisd, that is a different system, now they were delivered to Ukraine in the summer, the rocket costs €400,000. It costs 750,000 euros to shoot down 210,000 drones and then ask yourself how many missiles we have, then that's the problem, let's get to the first question, the Americans, you hear it over and over again, the Americans are to blame for the Americans, and so on, the Americans they do it. "Politics has always been like this and it is like that and that is also its right as a great power.

Now it is the fault of the Americans or maybe it is the fault of the Europeans because we have always had a good rest there. "Of course, the Americans have American interests in Europe, but it is the Europeans who allow American interests to prevail here. We have to defend ourselves and say what we want here in Europe in an emancipated way and on an equal footing with other actors." And that is not the case, we have to give ourselves this answer. The important thing with Trump was that he said at NATO: " I'd have to take on the defense someday or the man is crazy, it can't be him, that's the problem." we love to hear what we like but that's not the truth yes, the truth is often very, very painful yes and if we want something different we have to look for the keys we have a great social demographic challenge all these things the economic war that also affects us, where the raw materials come from It will not simply disappear, so it takes effort and the government because they said so, the politicians that they say that over and over again, we simply do not listen to the Chancellor's speeches, he says very It is clear that what he thinks is simply not heard if you say, well, we in Austria are a small island on the banks of the Danube and when the flood comes the island goes up and down automatically but it doesn't affect us, so no, that's the problem and if we don't recognize it then we're going to have a nasty surprise and I hope that doesn't happen but that's it, that's the problem and your general said that as a soldier you always assume the worst option, that is the one you plan to use to prevent evil, it would be incorrect When I tell them that everything is going well, that Ukraine is doing very well, Ukraine needs massive support or it will not be able to win this war. tanks is, at most, the beginning of the next step.

That is the challenge. Yes, to the question of Iran having two people, Iran played a not-so-insignificant role in a critical phase for Russia with the delivery of the drones, in which the Iranians have a relatively high-level advantage. Years ago they managed to get hold of an American drone. Whether it was shot down or not is a second question and they have developed internal production from it which is quite impressive because the technological level of Iran should not be underestimated and this is usually the case because Iran was pushed into a situation of total marginalization and, in fact, also in the current situation where now the one who suffers the most as far as the nuclear agreement is concerned is a development that is not of his own fault, but he actually fulfilled everything but that was broken in the damn place.

Well anyway, it can be assumed that there is the ancient principle of helpers in need is never dead and for Iran Russia was the help in the time of need and also China with deliveries and of course this also means that they are already here to deliver. Now they claim that all of these are deliveries that have already been made before. conflict without any conflict I wouldn't take it literally, but you have to assume that of course this is a strategic triangle that should not be underestimated and in reality, in terms of power politics, there is currently a peripheral land land. bridge that goes from the Yellow Sea to the Red Sea, which very few people are aware of with China, Pakistan now.

In Afghanistan, Iran and the influence over Iraq and Syria, of course, there is a ground situation here that has some importance, but that's okay. This won't change too quickly because of the special constellation, but it will go too far now because there will be little time to go into details. Military question for Mr. Oberstreisen and two brief political questions, Mr. Facades I. I read today with some bewilderment an interview in which the former retired American general Härtling, the former high command made comments to Europe, talks about the tanks that are handing over the Americans and the Germans, that we will be the game changers and that Ukraine will be in a position to win a war.

I'm absolutely right here on the general safety front. I am not a military expert. General Härtling says that the supply of tanks is greatly overestimated and that has me stunned. The only word that was said during the long interview was that Tanks are one thing, but Ukraine, they are destroying the infrastructure with their incredible arsenal of missiles and how can an anti-missile tank emerge here? I think that in these circumstances Ukraine cannot win the war, two short political questions, one. Dr. Fasslan, I think first of all that maybe it's one of the secrets of why the Russian population continues to stand in the way because they got away with this incredible lie and the narrative, which goes far beyond the Ukraine war, of that the West is going to destroy his country.

I have still heard from Americans in NATO or the West that this incredible lie is countered by a statement: we, they, NATO is a defensive alliance, we want to help one of the victims of an aggressor, but we do not want to destroy or attack to Russia. weaknesses. That's the first question. The second question is, haven't we been held hostage in the West a long time ago when people say today, from Van der Leyen down, that whatever happens, Ukraine has to decide its own destiny? The withdrawal from Crimea is pure illusion and the third is very short.

Until now I have not heard anything from the West, nor about the attempt to make a proposal, however unrealistic, for the end of the war and for a possible basis for an understanding between the parties in conflict, until now I have not heard one. word, we are becoming increasingly entangled in a situation of disagreement, thank you, welcome to the year 1915, that was the sobering realization that the war would not end as quickly as had been planned and that, everywhere, various measures had to be undertaken arduous tasks if you look at the military situation and that the Americans did not expect the Ukrainians to resist for so long either.

There are also visible hearings in Congress where you hear the generals give the speech and other members of Congress in the United States who say we didn't think they would last more than 72 hours. I explained to them what this decisive impulse was in the first days and then this enormous moral impulse on the part of Ukraine, we said: We manage kyiv, we can do the rest, and then the arms deliveries that came mainly from the United States, etc. The Russians were shocked. I'm even being provocative. They say the Russians in Ukraine were exactly the same fiasco.

Will the withdrawal there again be exactly the same as a year before? American intelligence thought that the Afghan railway existed was not the case. Russian intelligence thought that the Ukrainian army was collapsing, it was not. The case. There are many similarities. Now the Russian army has suffered this shock and has tried to consolidate, so to speak, and has carried out this phase change. The United States and the West tried to support Ukraine. It was not foreseeable whether this would happen quickly. "Or not. They delivered weapons. These weapons were later used more by the Ukrainians. Very successfully, they delivered these weapons in that way, they always tried to react to the biggest problem of October 10, the big issue was anti-aircraft defense, the first battery. the second suddenly the front in the park begins to crumble courage solidaritywhat do we need tanks okay, we send tanks what happens if we achieve a breakthrough and the strategic aerial fire continues okay, we have to go back to the Fliegerberg, that's the problem, that's how things are in a conflict you have a plan and it lasts until the first shot and then you keep trying to add resources until one side runs out of air.

The boxing match happens round after round, Ukraine has won some rounds on points but has not been eliminated yet. Every time Ukraine gets back in the ring, we basically corner them, try to pump them up and send them another fight, but the decisive one, and it continues like this, and the point is that a state has several options for projecting power, can graduate. You can use the economy, you can use your army and you need a good objective picture of the situation based on the actions that we are behind in the diplomatic academy. Don't talk, they are the bad ones, we are the good ones. that applies to both sides, so let's put it aside, we don't want to use the army, that's what Russia did and surprised us with it, we hesitate to use our army, a means of the 19th and 20th centuries, the economy. 10 sanctions packages in the eighth said, well, we are not talking about gas because that is not possible and oil, so if you don't want to, you don't have to be there and so on and so on and obviously that doesn't work as quickly while the military card of Putin continues to work, that is the problem, it is not that easy, we have to overcome it, I say this as an official of a state that is neutral, yes, militarily neutral, morally, we "I have made it clear which side we insist on.

I think that It is clear to everyone, but Europe is everything, I have to go through the passages and make a decision to comply with what it wants, it wants this border, this eastern shield, to look like this, it has to support Ukraine, it does not want that, you have to bear the consequences of that, that is the point, we simply have to make this decision, it simply will not be accepted by us when it comes to tanks, certainly not everything can be seen apart from strategic considerations and what can be To say with certainty today is that if you think about the final situation of this war, then Ukraine is certainly missing crucial areas such as the Zaporizhia Oblast, the nuclear power plant that generates 40% of Ukraine's electricity and several other things, meaning that Ukraine still has to recover certain areas to be truly viable, the question of access to much more or solutions of any kind arises.

You can look at various possibilities and in this sense, so to speak, the limited nature of the tank delivery is also an indicator of the willingness to achieve limited objectives, yes and clearly, but perhaps not to go beyond them. You can speculate about it. I have learned from the Ambassador how difficult it is in such situations to achieve this and then he wanted to say that without a doubt the Russians have always managed to create a narrative that you mentioned where in reality the population agreed and that is that In essence, what they are doing to the Today, although not to the same extent as before, it depends on that.

Together, it is probably not just a question of the Russian Federation, but of the entire Russian experience, the military, diplomacy and also the academic sector, a persistence in the imperial thinking of the former great power, which is undoubtedly driving, for which, on the other hand, this is exactly what the major tours have already mentioned, the question of where it ends and where it becomes critical for Russia and that is probably the question of conscription, because a Russian woman on average only has 0, 6 or 0.7 children, which simply means that a Russian family has one child and is no longer willing to sacrifice him for the homeland as was the case in "That is the weak side that Putin has and I think he is aware of "We certainly talked about a number of things that you mentioned, but I think behind this there is a desire to simply support Ukraine in this situation." knows that joining the EU will take decades.

I'm not talking about years, but decades, but now we are simply doing everything we can, he wants to support the country accordingly and I think he is absolutely right because the question is, so to speak, what will happen next if Putin really returns to house with military and political success? Will that be the end or will it happen again in a few years at the latest? It is definitely a problem and in this sense it simply cannot return home with a profit and that will define both the American and European strategies accordingly. So I would say that we can talk about everything here, that is, beyond 8:00 p.m.

Maybe I'll ask some questions, yes, thank you very much. I would like This brings up a dimension that has not been addressed at all in the current debate, namely international legal law. One is no longer allowed to freely define the objectives of war as long as it is based on the statutes of the United Nations. Nations remain and this legal framework still applies even if we are in a known situation where a member of the conflicting party of the Security Council is the first point, we always talk about war, war is prohibited, there can be no war, what there is is a prohibited aggression and against it Self-defense according to article 51 of the Statute Self-defense is not war, as before, perhaps with the objective of defeating the aggressor's march towards Moscow.

We remember that the action to liberate Kuwait stopped exactly at the borders of Iraq, because now I am trying to do more in accordance with international law. Simply to bring this dimension here, which results exactly from the hesitations that Oberstreisen also criticized. Self-defense is not a free war, but a rejection. from the aggression of those who have a buffer for free development and understanding. There are a few others who have reported this. At least I'll ask a question. I would also like to list the points that need to be taken into account. The first is with respect to the right of peoples to self-determination in the eastern regions.

Secondly, the one who would have the power to freely regulate it would be the Security Council, which means that here we are hoping that Russia will weaken to such a point that we can then have a Security Council resolution that will create peace, it can also explain why is there so much hesitation, so please, you can't just proceed politically in today's world while we still have the legal framework. Thanks, I would like that. On the first trip there are three gentlemen who asked questions, perhaps I would like to ask another question, very briefly, because they talked a lot about countries Germany, France, Poland and other constellations, Dr.

Fasslavent, how do you see the constellation? of Austria, that is, how to evaluate it. We appreciate the Austrian position within the framework of a committed neutrality policy in this constellation and, above all, within the framework of cooperation between NATO and the EU, where they even have an Austrian function. In the song, the EU military committee in the former General Brigger shot together. Okay, yes, one question up, you may be gradually losing the monopoly on violence in your own country and that could have an impact on Russian domestic politics and outreach. From this war Martin Rosenkranz I write financially to bite and for the military currently Ask Dr.

Fassland, they had this graph with raw materials and Ukraine is a very rich country in raw materials. Russia has currently conquered the most interesting areas. ". There was a report on Russian television that put these achievements at 3 trillion dollars. Ukraine on the road to Europe has one. They have just mentioned to us the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine that should have supplied electricity. The Russians are now there. To what extent is the war in Ukraine related to the strategic future of the European Union? I would suggest that we answer these questions and perhaps put on the crystal, I think the questionIf I were Dr.

Fasslabend, but I would like to agree with You, the question is formulated completely correctly and can be answered in a timely manner. I would like to talk about the Wagner group, because here too there is a lot of communication in the media, for example these massive losses of the Russians in Parque Madre and solidarity where we say it can't be that they can stand it, again Wagner, he has a different division of roles within himself, so there are the managers, there are basically There are basically what I described earlier as completely human flesh that is seen there in the attack, just like the Soviet Union's punitive battalions in World War II always let them run against the Germans. positions, almost without weapons, that is, Wagner's car has a purpose, he says.

The Russian units are basically far from the front and the Ukrainian units are getting closer because this attack means that Ukraine is forced to do something to counter it and that was one of the crucial points why this offensive in Elitopold could not develop as Wagner wanted but still has another role that we forget, for example, what we heard before, the role of the European Union in Africa France has withdrawn from Mali and is currently being discarded like Burkina Faso, which shakes the foundations of France's self-image in the Sahel area and that Wagner is moving there, where is Wagner still in Libya, for example, yes and in other places, so Wagner has a very important role? paper, but I would be very far from believing that Big Ocean is ready to become Putin, yes, the question could also be asked, what is the situation with Kadirus and such?

So on, yes, the Russian political system also with The system that the tsar had with his year has many similarities and even if we now look at the new leadership decision in the Russian army, for example, let us not forget that General Luffy Child has brought I get many successes. There was a case of general shoe shopping at the end of World War II, where he rode the white black horse in Red Square. He was very successful, he was almost too dangerous for Stalin and suddenly he was accused of looting in Germany. , they also have the correct one from Russia again.

From the Russian point of view, the regime is basically lining up not to become so strong, which means Putin has made the loyal people around him dependent on the sun. , so they pay close attention to who can grow here and who can't, and these are all mapping tools, so as a means to an end, yes, the question of international law and power politics is an eternal question. which undoubtedly cannot be resolved in favor of the legal system without the use of power, as demonstrated by the Federal President in the formulation he said today in his speech before the Secretary General of the United Nations, the best uterus as you know the Secretary General of the United Nations and this addition alone has made the classification very clear, these are the reality, even the fame of the Secretary General of the UN is reduced, not to mention a great possibility of influence, etc.

I only say this now, when the power is broken it is the aggressive power, the law can act again and that is what the question of Austria's neutrality policy will come down to. I have made no secret of the fact that I said that after the end of the Cold War, the Austrian nationality should prevent its base. of NATO troops at that time from the northern NATO zone towards the north-south, that is, from Bavaria to Italy, and on the other hand it should prevent the Russians from occupying the Danube valley up to the Bavarian border and, therefore, being able to make the easy advance that was the basis for Austrian nationality has been eliminated and the question has been eliminated, so to speak, of the remaining effects of neutrality, of which only two are present.

I always ask the question and please say: is it safer or less safe. being alone or having a riot: the first question and the second is: where can I most strongly influence European security policy when I am outside or inside the commission, when I sit next to American, French and German politicians? The Minister of Foreign Affairs, the President or the Minister of Defense can talk to them yes or no, or if I can find out later what was discussed. For me, this question is clear, it is because in Austria it is not foreseeable that a constitutional majority will be obtained.

The last issue was that of raw materials in Ukraine, it would never have occurred to Europeans to achieve any target in terms of raw materials. too little strategically. I would like to leave it at that, but what it turns out is that, of course, these questions, the remaining questions that exist, are strategically of some importance, that is, most of the wheat in Ukraine is used in eastern factories and industrial production facilities , etc., and in this sense the concrete demarcation is also a question for the surviving Ukraine, but I would not project it in Europe because of the existing structures and the destruction, so I would always say that the result returns to the moderator fulfilled, I I would like to thank you very much for your really fascinating and detailed explanations.

Thank you very much for the situations we find ourselves in. I can use them on behalf of where I am happy to have been able to work. for the first time. I hope it's not the last time. I can use them side by side to invite a glass of wine, I think there will still be an opportunity for a conversation or two, maybe some questions I haven't beenanswered, thank you for being there, for being there and returning home safely, have a nice afternoon, thank you very much