When is the UK general election? Your Questions Answered | BBC News

Hi, I'm G Gurthi. Now is the time to get

your

questions

right, of course, it's been a huge week on the political calendar as the

general

election

has finally been called for the 4th of July. Thank you for contacting the BBC with

your

questions

about all of that and with me to try to answer as many questions as possible are three guests Joe Tryman from Delta Pole, who is the public opinion consultancy, our own political correspondent Harry Farley and Ben Paxton from the Institute of Government, welcome to all of you. afternoon, thanks for being with us, we've had some questions and we're going to start with Ben and a question for you, because of course this happens in July, this vote we often have votes in May or maybe potentially in the fall, but July is not a common date, it is holiday season in many parts of the UK and there is a question from Lynn, 83, asking how I vote if I am on holiday.

Can I request a vote by mail? That's a great question. So yes, this is the first July

election

we have had since 1945 in the UK. If you're on vacation, there are two ways to vote: you can request a vote by mail, or you can get someone to vote on your behalf and fire a proxy. vote now Election Day is July 4, but to do both you will need to apply beforehand, so for mail-in votes you will need to have applied by June 19 and for a proxy vote you will need to You need to have applied by June 26, so you need to hurry if you're on vacation and that's something you plan to do.

Well, we're all taking note of that. Um, another question, Joe, for you, if I may. Someone has called to ask if there could be a coalition government, obviously at the moment there is a big lead in the polls for the Labor Party, but could we see a coalition government in July? Well, if the last 10 years of British politics have taught us anything it is that. Nothing can be ruled out, but I think at the moment it seems unlikely that the polls are just a snapshot of public opinion at any given time and the campaign could have a big effect on things and change history completely, but such how things are at the moment.

It looks good for workers, they need to win more than 120 seats in the elections and by historical standards that is a huge number now. Opinions differ on exactly what kind of swing it will take to achieve that, but the upper end of estimates is said it will take a swing of about 12% above the 12% to get a majority of just two now by the standards. historical. That's a big number doesn't mean it won't happen, but it's bigger than Tony Blair achieved. in 1997, for example, which is the largest in post-war history up to this point and by some margin, but to become the uh and enter the territory of the Parliament without a majority they only need an estimated swing of around 4%, which which is perfectly reasonable. by uh uh by historical standards so I think I think hung Parliament, although it's unlikely, but it's much more likely based on the polls that we're seeing right now, based on the size of the leads and how long those have lasted. advantages. seems a less likely option and Joe was quick to follow up on whether there has been any movement in the last two days since the announcement was made in the rain outside Downing Street, well not only has there not been much movement in The last few days there really hasn't been much movement for a long time, the Conservatives have been behind in every poll published since December 2021 and Labor has had a double-digit lead since September 2022, so these trends are durable and the gap is big and continues to be so we'll wait and see if it changes during the campaign but no movement so far okay Harry let me bring you up with a question that ties in a couple of our really important stories here at the United Kingdom in At the moment we have a question, will it be the delay of the elections?

Obviously, Parliament is being dissolved today. Will the delay of the elections be compensation for the victims of the infected blood scandal and the post office scandal? Well, there is a lot of political will around the world. different parties to look at those compensations both for the victims of that post office Horizon plan that you mentioned and for the victims of the infected blood scandal. A lot of will between the parties to see that happen in the last days. I have seen bills that would allow such compensation schemes to move forward. They have been approved. It's called the flushing process, basically where existing government bills are rushed through in the final days before Parliament finishes sitting this afternoon.

So those two. There are bills being passed as we speak, I think possibly in the last few minutes one of them was just passed as well, so I think those compensation packages will move forward, the legislation that will allow them to do that is being passed, right? Now I think and we know that some things in the laundry area, Harry, some of the bills we're going through have disappeared, it's a huge amount of work, not many people do it, so it's quite extraordinary, really, we'll know. at 6:00, presumably, what other bills do pass is that, yes, more or less on that date, a lot of work as you say, but also a lot of government promises, for example, the government's promise of the Manifesto of 2019. to end no-fault evictions for tenants, that would be the one that prevents landlords from evicting tenants without having to give a reason that was promised by the conservatives in 2019, a bill was presented to the council to allow that to happen from the Commons over a year ago, uh, but that now won't pass, it's a victim of, as you say, that whitewashing process, another promise that rishy sunak made was to create the first smoke-free generation , which was legislation to try to phase out smoking makes it illegal for people to smoke, that won't happen now either, he said he's disappointed it won't happen, but maybe there's an indication that it could well be something that's in the works. the Conservative Manifesto if, of course, the Conservatives manage to return to government on July 4, but as we've been hearing, it's a big if at the moment, thanks Harry Ben, can I bring you a question that ties into that?

A question that asks what happens to Parliament before the elections. Yes, the elections were called a couple of days ago by the Prime Minister and then we went into that washout period as just said and that will only be two days this time. Parliament will be prorogued tonight, which means MPS. will stop sitting in the House of Commons and then next Thursday Parliament is dissolved and at that point MPs stop being MPs, they simply become candidates and there is no MP to represent us specifically because the campaign has started and also The countdown of 25 business days to the elections begins. the day itself and that's five weeks, so we have election day on July 4th and then Parliament meets a few days later to get things going again and just to keep track of that for everyone watching the Summer ahead in the autumn Parliament. comes back and then we'll go into a normal break for August and then, you know, the party conferences in September is what happens.

I don't think we actually have the final dates for

when

all of this will happen. I don't think the break dates are finalized and we may not know for a little while longer yet. Well, party conferences I also think are a bit up in the air at the moment. Well, let's move on to another question, Joe, if I may. I ask: could there be a pact between the Conservatives and the reformist United Kingdom? That question also interests us. Well, it's a very good question. There could be, but I think it is unlikely that a formal deal will be reached, although some particularly in the Conservative ranks might indeed seem that way. to embrace such an idea, I think the leaders of both parties have previously ruled it out and may do so again, but of course there is a distinction between a formal pact in which a party agrees not to fight a private individual in a constituency in particular and Let them have freedom and then the sort of informal agreements where one party might prefer to just not put in as much effort, but I think in both cases it's unlikely to make a major difference because, while the reform of the Kingdom United can take some votes from the Conservatives, of course, it's not the Conservatives in many of these constituencies who need to beat Labour, so if you look at something like South Blackpool by election, the Conservatives will only They narrowly stopped the reform and the reform was coming. third there, but Labor were so far ahead that even if all Reform voters had voted Conservative, which of course was never going to happen, they still wouldn't have beaten Labor in a constituency that in many ways is almost designed so that reform does well for them based on demographics and past voting patents, so maybe there will be some unofficial ad hoc agreements to maybe not try as hard as they would in particular constituencies, but I think a pact formal with this particular government in Downing Street, I think it's unlikely, but after the election, well, we'll have to wait and see for Harry.

A question for you: how long have the conservatives been in power? Well, the Conservatives have been in government for 14 years since 2010, of course, remember the first one. For 5 years they were in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, meaning they were the largest party but they did not have an overall majority of MPs, so they needed a coalition agreement with another party, in this case the Liberal Democrats, in order to create that majority that allowed them to pass laws and then, since 2015, they themselves have been in the

general

power, in the government and in the majority in the House of Commons, of course, before they worked in power for 13 years with uh from 1997 to 2010 Richi Sunak I guess that's one of the challenges for him in many ways for this election campaign.

Not only is he on record for the time he has been in charge, but he has been prime minister and leader of the Conservative party. party in many ways, he is also being judged by the record of his predecessors as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative party, going back to Boris Johnson, Liz Truss of course, Theresa May and David Cameron before that, so I think Pro is perhaps one of the challenges that he's not just drawing on his own record, he's also drawing on Los Angeles' record of the last 4 years of Conservative government LED and Harry just to continue that, we've seen a lot of MPs, I think more of 100 now resigning and people like Harriet Harman I think she is the longest serving MP in the house at the moment uh certainly female member of the House of course um giving her farewell speeches and most of them won't be seen coming what was happening to be the last day because once the May date passed as a possible election date, people started assuming that it was probably going to be fall, so, you know, we've also seen Craig McKinley, who did that. incredible appearance a couple of days ago saying sadly and reluctantly that he does not feel capable of fighting another campaign, yes it is true, several parliamentarians even in the last 24 hours announced that they would resign, as you say, we had already had more of 100 parliamentarians, not only of the conservatives of the entire political division, also of the parliamentarians who announce that they will retire or move on to other things and, as you say, whatever happens after this election, whoever the party wins larger, the composition of the House of Commons.

It will look very different because, regardless of who wins and the outcome of the election, there will be a large number of new MPs simply by virtue of the fact that many are retiring or moving on to do something different, I think one thing that has been noticed is How many MPs have spoken out about the difficulties they faced, perhaps balancing their life as MPs with family matters or even worrying about their safety, so there will be major upheaval in the House of Commons whatever the outcome. from the 4th of July election, yeah, the young EMP Labor Party MP, I think for Halifax, she's standing there like a little girl and she's waiting for another one and she feels like she can't balance the life of an MP, you know, with everything else.

What she has to do as a family person and that is a really very important question, isn't it about who goes into politics, who can afford to go into politics, who can make it work? And we need, of course, people of the highest caliber. For the good of all,Ben, let me ask you a question, why did Richie Sunak call a general election in the summer, so Richie Sunak had the option to call an election at any time and hold it at any time until the end of January? six months or more before that, it was always a difficult decision to make: call an election from the current position you are in, even if the polls show you are behind, as Joe explained before, or wait and hope that the polls they have done it. improved Rishi sunak felt that this is the right time for him an important factor in any election is the economy and we know that this time it is a big concern for voters.

It is notable that the election announcement came on the same day that the latest inflation figures were announced and showed that inflation was 2.3%, quite close to the Bank of England's target of 2%, but of course , there are many factors, uh, and I'm not sure anyone other than the prime minister and the people closest to him. I really know exactly why, although there will be a lot of speculation I'm sure in the coming weeks and Harry alone with that. I was speaking to Nick Herley, who is traveling with the Prime Minister at the moment about that because Nadine Doris had maliciously tweeted that you know the real reason August was the July date was because US school terms start in August and if Sunak doesn't win the election, then He will know all the speculation, all the questions about whether he will move back to California where he met his wife.

That's a little naughty, it's private, but people have many reasons to make these decisions. A lot of frustration among Tor MPS saying look, we're way behind in the polls. Every percentage point that changes means it actually affects someone's job because you're out of a job if you lose your seat. Yes, that is completely true. many Tori MPs express concern whether we should say it is worth saying both privately and publicly after that snap election was called. A cabinet minister texted me to say, well, it's a brave decision to go early. I think the reality is that many of those The people closest to Rishi Sunak Oliver Daon, known to be one of his closest friends in politics, one of his closest political allies, has long been advocating the need to go early.

The argument is that I guess it seems like you're seizing the moment. initiative, you seem to be stronger, perhaps if you decide to go early, but as you say, many of your backbench Conservative MPs are very concerned that you have chosen to go early

when

, as we have been hearing, there is such a big gap in The It is worth saying that polls, although polls are just polls, there is only one poll that matters and as we have seen in previous elections, a lot can change in six weeks absolutely and Joe just to explain to his specialized subject how reliable are the general election polls.

What is a Bell Weather seat? A couple of questions there. Oh well, I'll answer the second one. First, a Bellweather seat is a seat that shows it matches the overall result and therefore when the Conservatives are in. power, that particular seat will go to the Conservatives and when Labor is in power, that seat will go to Labor and therefore with the new limits that have come into effect, this time it becomes more confusing and, so, You have to forgive me if I can't name the individual congressional districts under the new boundaries, uh, that would be Bell Weathers, Bell Weathers this time, but there will be, they will be out there, so look them up and how accurate they are.

The polls, as I say, are just a snapshot of public opinion at that time, so at this point we are not trying to predict where we think the outcome of the general election will be because we still have six weeks left and, as we know, one week it is. I've been in politics for a long time, but what I can say is that the final election polls, historically speaking, tend to be pretty close, although there are exceptions, four out of five times they tend to be within the margin of error, which is usually around more. or minus 2% now in a close election that could mean the difference between winning one party and winning the other, but at the moment the lead that Labor has is substantial in all the polls and, indeed, the kind of gains that the Election campaigns in the past are not big enough to make up for that advantage, even if you take into account the largest miss in the polls, although I am ashamed to even mention it, since 1992, so even if you get the biggest movement we have ever seen. in one more campaign the biggest failure in the polls still looks like Labor is probably the biggest party in a hung Parliament, which would be enough to get K Starma into Downing Street, yes, and of course people have pointed out that even if that were to happen, even if there was a sort of uh, there's no clear majority, the Lib Dems are not likely to support a Conservative government and therefore it's not like you, it's very, very difficult see a return for toys, although I must say that the prime minister in his briefing with journalists on the plane. on his travels today he has a fighting spirit so of course we will only know the result on July 5 Ben if I can ask you some procedural questions that we have had on some people obviously suddenly suddenly they have to take this seriously. that they will now be able to cast a vote for the government of their choice for the MP of their choice, so we get questions like how do you request a postal vote?

Who can vote in general elections? and how? I know who my MP is and what constituency I'm in so these are all great and very important questions for people to ask so postal votes and proxy votes and registering to vote can be done online if You simply register with Google. to votes or postal votes um in the pigeon. gov.uk website, you should be able to find the information there if you can't use the internet for any reason you can call or contact your local electoral office who will be able to give you more information um and So what was your second question?

Sorry I think the question is someone asked what constituency and who is my MP yeah and who can vote who can vote really important question with those boundary changes that have been mentioned so you know outside of 533 electoral districts in England. I don't have the figures for other parts of the UK. Almost all of them will change their boundaries in the next elections. I think there are only about 50 that remain unchanged, so you may be in a new constituency that you can find. that information online again, there's a um, you can go to the website.uk or the Democracy Club is a place that puts all this information together online, they can find out, you can find out where your polling station is and who the candidates are in your local area, okay? and making these boundary changes, I mean, obviously, they're presumably designed to be fair to all parties, but is there an argument about whether they favor one party or another?

So I think it's quite difficult to say, um, no, they are designed in such a way that they hope not to produce a big change, but it's very difficult to say right now how that will affect the outcome of the election, although I'm sure that there will be a lot of speculation in the coming weeks and after the elections about it. I'm sure someone will ask when the last general election was. Harry's general election was in 2019, almost as we heard almost five years ago, the deadline, legally, for when the next election should be is the end of January in 2025 uh, but as we were hearing what exercise to do a little earlier, but uh it's been almost 5 years since the last election and Harry, another one for you if I may, what is the Côte d'Azur and why has Ed Davy focused on it? going to the south of England, so Ed Davey is the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, he's going to the south coast of England and I suppose it's also fair to say the West, the South West, because those are the areas that he hopes to win the most seats, the Lib Dems tend to be very popular in those sorts of parts of England in particular, also in some areas of Scotland, so I assume he is focusing his energies on his campaign in those areas, in those particular constituencies that he believes that he can win, so we saw him, for example, in Chelham, yesterday, and I think, as you say, today he is on the south coast, in Eastborn, where there is another seat that he says the Lib Dems can win from the Conservatives.

Of course, there are others. seats across the country where perhaps the Lib Dems have the least chance, perhaps are in third or fourth place and are more of a straight fight between Labor and the Conservatives, so it's worth, as we heard before, checking what constituency you're in uh checking who's in your constituency in your area uh before you decide who to vote for absolutely um Joe, I'm going to ask you a couple if I can uh they've asked us when we'll know the final result and uh They've also asked us, Do we know who is going to win?

As I said, if the last 10 years of British politics have taught us anything it is that nothing can be taken for granted, but if you take three different points of evidence, current polling trends, historical precedent and the most recent set of results elections with local and by-elections that we had recently, if you look at all of them, they all point to a Labor victory that is unlikely to happen. be the kind of three-figure supermajority that current polls suggest because, based on historical precedent, we would expect at least some contraction in the polls during the campaign, especially from people who in other times would say oh, I don't know who.

I'm going to vote for it, but then I'll make a decision one way or another, but that contraction is unlikely to be enough to change the overall story, instead it's pointing right now and I'm getting stressed out right now. is aiming for a labor victory of a size and uh and then regarding the first question I've forgotten, so it was, when will we know? because obviously there are no calculations there because the results will obviously come overnight. in the fourth survey it slows down at 10:00 we'll all be up working or watching that show and um or those shows and um I'm sure, what time of the night do you think we'll know or do you think I'll have to wait until tomorrow because if the lab has a massive majority you would know quite early, if it is stricter you would have to wait for the presumption and yes, and that's what I was going to say if it's a hung Parliament which, as I say, I don't think is a likely option at all, but if it is a hung Parliament, we may not know the overall outcome in terms of who will actually go to Downing Street for a couple of days and maybe even longer, but assuming that is not the case.

In this case, we should know it sometime in the early hours of the morning, of course, if you are John Curtis, Sir John Curtis and one of your colleagues at the starting post, you may know it around the time of the election day lunch, but uh, but for those of us mere mortals, uh, uh, the starting pole will be announced at 10:00 on election night, which will give an indication and then when they arrive the results, it will confirm or even further deny that the elections the elections are going on the starting pole line and as a result they are starting to come in, we should get some, we get some from Sunderland and New Castle, within 45 minutes to an hour , but most of the results will arrive from 2 to 3 at 3:00 a.m. m. going forward and I imagine relatively quickly, if it is a big labor victory, we will know, so I would estimate it around 3:00 on Friday morning. on the 4th of July we will find out on the 5th of July the five yes Joe tryman Ben Paxton Harry Farley there are many games being played between those who like these things calculating majorities or numbers hanging in Parliament or whatever, but we will find out very soon In 6 weeks, thank you very much everyone, let's really get to work