Israel-Iran Escalation Chance Less Than 24 Hours Ago: Ret. General Kimmitt

Do you believe, based on the reports you have seen and heard this morning, that Israel has at least managed to transmit a superior capability to the Iranians? Well, they have certainly demonstrated ability. I think the Israelis held back considerably. I think the fact that they could hit near the Isfahan nuclear reactor was more of a message than a capability. And I think at this point there is

less

chance

of an

escalation

than there was 24

hours

ago. Would you consider this episode closed? My opinion doesn't matter. They have to decide if this episode is closed. To me, it would seem that what they are trying to do is return to the status quo, which is a shadow war, not an open war like they have had since the assassination of the Quds Force.

Officials inside the Damascus embassy. However, how can you go back to the status quo, when the red lines have completely evaporated this week, especially considering the fact that we had drones and missiles coming from Iranian soil towards Israel? There are no red lines. Everything has been pushed. Yes, I think that is a very good question. I think the fact that it appears that one of the targets of the Iranian attack was the nuclear facility in Israel. And the fact that the Israelis pursued a target near the Natanz nuclear reactors, which is the center of the Iranian programs.

I think they have both reached the precipice. They have looked to the edge and perhaps this is an opportunity for them to step back. What do you make of what we've seen in the US response, particularly when they said it was a massive success and that was in terms of their ability to shoot down all of these missiles and drones that were headed towards Israel? But the fact that it happened means that where was the West's deterrence? I think it's very surprising to see that the Iranians took the level of attack that they did to respond to the attack on Syria.

We hadn't seen that before. That was much more than we had seen after the attack on Suleimani. By comparison, the Iranian response to the US operation against Soleimani was almost silent. Many soldiers were injured in that, but none died. But compared to the response to this recent incident in Syria, I think everyone is surprised. And at this point, everyone is trying to put the genie back in the bottle. When you talk about the genie in the bottle, are you talking about Iran representing strength at a time when an attack that surpassed all previous ones finally failed?

That's the right way to say it. In many ways, Iran showed its weakness, not its strength, by doing this. But remember, they were not trying to achieve a military victory with this. What they were really trying to do, the victory they were trying to get, was a soft power victory to show that they are the head of the axis of resistance, to show that they would not tolerate what Israel did in a foreign country. We are talking about the unprecedented coalition of the United States, the United Kingdom and France, but also Jordan and Saudi Arabia. To what extent was that kind of a makeshift coalition just on this particular issue, almost contingent on a resolution of what's happening in Gaza?

Yes, I think, first of all, it's important to understand that we've been building this coalition for over two decades. It has been a slow effort. We have tried to move the entire region to a centralized air defense capability where the Abraham Accords addressed some of the political and military issues that needed to be resolved. I think this shows the region why they want to work more together for the defense of the region, both militarily and diplomatically. To me, this is based on the Abraham Accords, and I certainly hope that this continues or that the Abraham Accords continue.

We really need Saudi Arabia and Israel to sign an agreement. And that cannot happen without a resolution in Gaza, which I want to ask you about. Where does this leave Gaza, given the fact that we've had this parallel show between Tehran and Jerusalem? Yeah, I'm really glad you call it a sideshow, because in many ways, Emory, it's a sideshow. Everyone seems to think it's the main effort. But no, it's a sideshow. I do not believe that Prime Minister Netanyahu would for a moment stop his plans to attack Rafah. I think the real question is what will happen the day after the fall of Rafah, the day after the Israelis declare that Hamas is no longer an effective fighting force and we have destroyed the infrastructure, then will come the hard work of governance in the Which I've talked about for quite some time.

And until there is a solution on governance, there really will be no solution to the two-state question.