Putin is losing control of his 'warlords' says Lt. General Ben Hodges

The Russian defenders will crack because I don't think that in most of these trench lines the soldiers that are sitting there in those trenches and bunkers are well trained, confident and disciplined, so the potential for a crack to open up, but I say that the potential is very real. Hello and welcome to Times Frontline Radio with me, Kate Chabot, and today we're talking to a retired American

general

, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, in his 38 years for the US Army who commanded in Iraq and Afghanistan from 2014 to 2017, he was commander of the US Army in Europe and is now a senior advisor to the human rights NGO First.

Ben Hodges welcomed Frontline. It was a pleasure talking to you, and of course today we're going to talk about Ukraine. How do you see it? Do you see we are entering? In phase 2.0 of this war, I think right now, with a kind of calm before the storm, the momentum has shifted so much towards the Ukrainian side. The Ukrainians are preparing for a counteroffensive that we all believe will come soon. Every day there is new good news about countries. like the UK, Germany, others want to provide resources to the Ukrainian side and in

general

there is bad news almost every day for the Russian side so I am very optimistic about what awaits us and recently this week we have seen a new development: raids. in Russia itself in the region of the Belgian highway, these are forces for the International Legion in Ukraine, what do you think of this exactly?

This is very interesting because there are three or four plausible explanations for what happened, clearly looking at the footage of the aftermath from the Russians. They staged something to make it look like they destroyed the entire raid, but that wasn't the case because these are Russian fighters fighting for the Ukrainian cause or they are taking advantage of an opportunity fighting for their own cause. I imagine there is some connection. with Ukrainian intelligence or something, but I can't be sure and apart from the distraction it causes for the Russian side, you know why the Ukrainians would do it.

I see a benefit for Ukrainians, but I don't know for sure. who have led this, we are talking about the freedom of the Russian Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps, how seriously should they be taken? Do you think good? It depends somewhat on the Russian reaction, if the Russians take very seriously that this is a real distraction for them and if they have to start pulling resources from somewhere else to strengthen their own border, I think this is a good thing. because it takes them away from where I think Ukraine's main effort is going to be and how much they believe the need is behind them.

Did they supply the weapons, for example? Again, it's hard to say. I mean, we have to keep in mind that Russia, particularly on Russia's borders, is not like Moscow. I mean, government

control

doesn't extend 100 percent to every small town. city, so it's not inconceivable that there could be people who are not pro-Kremlin and who are Russian and who could get equipment, weapons, uniforms, things like that. You know, of course, there are soldiers from Belarus or people from Belarus who are fighting. for Ukraine, there are Russians who are fighting for Ukraine, this seems like some kind of aspect of that, so right now you see this more as a distraction than something that will lead to any kind of escalation.

Yes, I think this is a distraction. that causes problems for the Kremlin and of course they have to explain it and if this makes it more difficult for Russia to concentrate against the Ukrainian forces then I think it is good that today there are reports that Russia has launched an attack on a medical clinic and Nepro, This may well turn out to be a war crime. How optimistic are you that people who have committed war crimes will be held accountable and brought to justice? Yes, well, of course, 100 it is a war crime to target the hospitals and you.

I know precision weapons are being used so these are not accidents and there has been a pattern of attacking medical facilities and other civilian infrastructure. I think one of the things we should do is publish with the times, for example, the photographs. From the entire chain of command, everyone who has a role to play, from the Kremlin to the captain responsible for the battery that launches the rocket or the missile, these are who they are because I think this will be one of the most effective ways. start putting pressure on the Russians when they realize they can't do this with impunity and in fact the NGO you first advise on human rights is working in Ukraine and advocating for changes in US policy so that easier to bring people to justice.

It is time for the United States to join the international criminal court and absolutely support it. I just published an op-ed that was published in Washington DC the other day along with two former Supreme Allied Commanders in Europe, General Breedlove and General West Clark, arguing for at least our Secretary. defense should support the ICC, the international criminal court, in collecting evidence to help them gather evidence of these war crimes and I hope that our government decides that it is time for us to be signatories to the Rome Statute which grants jurisdiction, we have than to live up to our own talking points, the Secretary of Defense, well, he hadn't called me personally yet, the concern in the Department of Defense has always been whether this could be used against American soldiers in a way, I mean, Be honest, US soldiers are not the same as soldiers from a country that has a different profile, so I think that's part of the reason for the caution.

However, the president supports this. The Secretary of State supports this and the Department of Defence. He seems to be the most conservative in this case and I hope they change. Do you think they will change? I think we will eventually. We have been hearing for a couple of weeks that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is approaching, approaching and When the journalist Illusion, the chief of the General Staff was an incredible soldier. I mean, he's really good. He has impressed me with his discipline. We know more about the Russians than we do about the Ukrainians, which is as it should be, but I think uh.

This is a counteroffensive that everyone feels is coming, it will happen when they are also ready for it and I think it has three conditions, number one, if their own forces are ready, if they have enough strength, armored brigades that can penetrate a front narrow, dense. Russian linear defenses are one thing and all the work that the UK has been doing, the equipment that Germany provided, what the US is doing in other countries, that is what is happening right now. I think they are probably just a few weeks away from being ready in terms of their own Force, the second condition, what about the Russian forces?

Have they degraded enough to provide the best chance for the Ukraine attack to succeed? That means destroying ammunition, destroying fuel, creating chaos in the rear area and then, of course, the third condition is the terrain, the traffic. The capability is for the ground to be dry enough to be able to support the rotation of hundreds of tracked heavy armored vehicles when those three conditions are established. I think he tells President Zielinski that we are ready to go and how he thinks it will go. Well, me. I think you're going to see what we would call combined arms, meaning mechanized infantry tanks, engineers on the move and armored vehicles, artillery and air defense on the move along overwhelming combat power masked on a very narrow front that we don't have. , they don't have to attack the entire 900 miles they just have to get through these defenses to, I believe, the coast of the Sea of ​​Asaph to cut the so-called land bridge.

I think that's what will happen when it starts, but right now, what's going on? What we call configuration operations to establish those conditions presumably have been promised the F-16 planes the US now

says

they are going to assist in training the pilots to fly them will not arrive soon enough for this counteroffensive not for the opening it unfortunately not. What difference do you think they will make when they arrive? Well, this will be a significant increase in capability for the Ukrainian side and of course it's not just the aircraft, it's the pilots, it's the system, are they prepared to conduct operations, whether in support? of ground or air-to-air operations to keep out Russian planes to almost create a kind of bubble that distances Russia's ability to counter the Ukrainian offensive now, obviously, we should have made this decision eight ten months ago, we would have f- 16 for several countries being flown by Ukrainian pilots we are already where we are, it will still help when they appear in the next three or four months and the Ukrainians will always be faster than we think, they are proving it time and time again when it will start to have an effect in the next three months or so, um, if you're on the Russian side, you say, oh Ghana, you know, we've been waiting for the West to stop supporting Ukraine and now this is showing.

I think that will have an important psychological effect in favor of Ukraine and the Wagner mercenary group claimed to have captured the city of Bahamut and they say they will now leave it to the Russian soldiers. We have seen his boss Yevgeny. Prego wanders around the camera saying that he's doing that and congratulating the Mercenaries. Do you think any of them can hold up well? Of course. Mr. Pregosian does not take orders from the Russian Journal staff. Shoigu Garasimov. you don't get what you want or if it took so long to take Bach Moot and I think you know their business model is good, I'm done, I've done my part now I'm going to take my what do I want They're gone and gone to somewhere else, so what situations do they leave the Russian forces in which he

says

he will replace them in Bahamut?

Yes, this will be interesting. These are forces the Russians will have to find elsewhere. Of course it is what the Ukrainians want, the reason they fought so hard around Bak was debatable because apart from the fact that it is a city of their fellow citizens from a strategic point of view it was not vital, but when They see that Russia is willing to waste thousands of lives. take that city then Ukraine said okay we will do it but without diverting our armored forces which we really need for the next counteroffensive and I think if Russia continues to put resources into its territory Ukraine will continue to try to fix them if you don't then what You will see, of course, that Ukraine will probably advance and retake that city.

You have already alluded to the state of the relationship between the head of the Wagner group. Do you have any caution and the Russian generals? What are they doing? Do you believe that the Wagner group's relationship is with the Kremlin and with the Afghan caution and the Kremlin there has to be some kind of confidence on the part of Mr. Pagosian that they are not going to throw him out of a window somewhere the fact that he is so publicly criticized in a veiled way, uh, president of Putin, but do you know that these guys are like

warlords

?

You have Mr. Kadira from the Chechens, you have Pregosian with Wagner and there are several other mercenary groups and then you have I think all these so-called regular Russian forces are trying to figure out how they stay alive and what their status will be when this war ends in Ukraine. Do they want to be the Savior of Russia, do they want to be President Putin's hero or are they waiting for an opportunity to break away? I don't know how all this will play out. The good news for Ukraine and for us is that this inconsistency and hatred between the various leaders on the Russian side guarantees that they will not have a coherent defensive plan and that they will not be able to fight their defense in any coherent way, so this is a vulnerability. which Ukraine certainly and perhaps even we can explore.

It's a vulnerability as you say, but a report published this week by the Royal United Services Institute says that the Russian Arachi regular forces, although criticized at first for being chaotic, are actually improving, they are learning on the job what it is like. evaluation I think there probably are. I mean, Russi is right that there are probably some places where some units have the skill and are tactically learning how to fight better, so we're talking about units that get better at securing or clearing a village. or a city or large buildings, you would expect that to happen, but they have not improved on the important things that really matter, they still cannot integrate air and ground operations, what we would call joint operations, the Black Seed Fleet still does not do nothing. except the launching of missiles against apartment buildings and even this morning we know that a report came out about a very, very modern Russian ship, which was hit by a Ukrainian drone, a maritime drone, so they have not improved on the important things that really matter and that they still can't get. air superiority still couldn't intercept the communication line bringing equipment and ammunition from Poland and Ukraine not a single train has been destroyed since this started, how can that be to know if they are better at breaking into a building or clearing a trench ?

So be it, weapons and equipment will obviously be keyfor the Ukrainian forces and to advance, but if you were commanding forces on the ground, what type in preparation for this counteroffensive? What kind of tactics would you be using? I think what we're doing. I'll see, what I hope to see is the payoff of the training that the British Army, the US Army and other allies have done to help Ukrainian forces carry out a combined arms attack involving tanks and mechanized infantry. .Engineers moving in armored vehicles that will clear paths through the lanes to get through obstacles or have artillery fired on the defenders along this narrow front along which they will try to achieve a penetration and We will also bring in some air defense with them, short-range air defense to help keep out Russian drones, and other responses the Russians will make.

I imagine there will be two or three penetration efforts and then probably one or two that are decoys or deceptions or support attacks so the Russians can't determine exactly where all of this is going to happen. I think there's the potential for them to be very successful, I mean there's this thing if you're not well trained and disciplined and confident and you hear that the enemy has bypassed you or is behind you, you panic. The Russian defenders will break because I don't think that in most of these trench lines the soldiers that are sitting there in those trenches and bunkers are doing well. trained, confident, disciplined, so the potential for the same opens up, but I say the potential is very real, of course, we know that war, the nature of war does not change, it is violent, it is uncertain, there is friction , there is fog, so things could go wrong in some places and When it comes to how long this war will last, there are some schools of thought that maintain that President Putin will try to prolong it for as long as possible, perhaps even after the presidential election in the US, and then there are those who say that what they really want is an agreement an agreement a broker of a peace agreement from the US where do you think the truth is?

Their only hope, and I mean the only hope the Kremlin has, is that the West will lose interest, get tired, or get distracted by something. otherwise that's the only thing they can do there, there's nothing else they can do to achieve a successful conclusion from the Russian perspective and you're right, I mean of course they know exactly when the American elections are. The British elections are Polish and only and so on, fortunately, the US elections are 18 months away, fortunately the US Congress continues to support this effort in a very, very strong bipartisan way. Hold your ground, there are three or four loud mouths on both ends, but overall Congress has strong support.

So I think that if my president and I not only have great respect for my president, but he has done a good job and there are 50 united nations, not only the NATO nations that continue to support Ukraine, but he does not He has gone so far as to say exactly what the desired strategic outcome should be, you know, and he also has not gone so far as to say that we want Ukraine to win, instead we say things like we will be with you as long as it takes, that is not something that solid enough to generate the kind of support that is needed to achieve a quick conclusion if he said we want Ukraine to win and then the prime minister said it when this cancer said it all this could end like this is what you absolutely want them to do and This would all be over by the end of the year, I mean, because then we would stop making excuses as long as we can't provide strikes or we can't provide F-16s, why do you think there has been this delay? hesitancy in the supply of weapons um, of course, I have no responsibility as an old retiree, but the president does have a lot of responsibility and therefore has to be very thoughtful about the potential for Russia to escalate the use of a nuclear weapon .

I think that's uh, that's a stretch, I think there's almost zero chance of Russia using a nuclear weapon, of course they have thousands, but almost zero is not zero, you're right, you're right, but if the United States can be prevented and the United Kingdom do so. What to do when a country threatens to use a tactical nuclear weapon? That's a signal to everyone else in the world who has a nuclear bomb or wants a nuclear bomb, so we want some of that, so I think this is the place where we really need to take a hard look at this and realize that we don't there are positive results for Vladimir Putin if they use the zero nuclear weapon, so I think the people around him also realize that there are no positive results and that it is very unlikely that they will do it.

The quickest way to end this war the way we want is to help Ukraine do it now. I would add this. I think another factor is that we're not sure what it's going to look like. Well, let's say Ukraine wins. what's up what's up what's up um China has signaled that they don't want to see a Russian collapse I don't know if Russia and China and Russia are these friends Limitless clearly there are limits to this and maybe there's a role for China in some way that gives Russia a way out of this mess it has gotten itself into, but it cannot be.

I would personally never advocate that Russia can retain even one square meter of sovereign Ukrainian territory to include Crimea, in which case, what kind of way out could Russia be given to get out of this message? Well, look, this is, you know, when the Soviet Union made the decision to move out of Afghanistan, you didn't have every nation in the world touching their hands like oh, we've got to give the Russians a way out, they They just made the decision to leave because they don't have to worry much about public opinion, yes, it was their mothers complaining about their children being killed in Afghanistan, but that's different from a The leader of a democratic country has to worry about what millions of people really think, so an autocrat can always say, "Okay.

I'm changing my mind. I'm changing the narrative and I think this is what could happen. I don't think the loss of Crimea equates to the collapse of the Putin regime. What do you think is at stake in this war and how well do you think the American public understands and appreciates it? This is a great question so far. I think most Americans instinctively feel like they know. In Ukraine it is not a perfect democracy, but they have only been in this for about 30 years, so we have been in this for 250 years and we are not perfect, so there is a feeling of being a small in Russia. um I don't think there's a lot of sympathy for Russia except maybe some people on Fox News have said the burden is on the president to explain why this is important because it's about American security because our security depends on the security of Europe. our prosperity depends on the prosperity of Europe and everything that requires a stable and secure energy supply in Europe Supply chains The refugee problem is not that big, its people stay at home, that is one thing and the second thing is this rules-based international order.

I mean, it sounds like a quote from a political scientist, but if you break it down, we're talking about respect for borders, respect for sovereignty, that's important to all Americans, respect for freedom of navigation, that's essential to our economy, that depends on trade, respect for human rights, respect for international agreements, Russia hates all that, it is important. For us it is important for all our European allies and China is looking at whether we are really willing to defend those values ​​and if we do not show that we are willing to defend those values, what are the consequences?

I think the possibility of China making a miscalculation like Russia made increases. Are you talking about Taiwan? Taiwan South China Seas a variety of other places where we don't have to have a company it is not inevitable that we will have a conflict with China in fact I think if the US Canada Europe is our All Pacific allies, when combined the economic power and the diplomatic power of all those nations, we can hold China accountable and force them to honor the agreements they have signed, respecting sovereignty and international law, but if we don't, then they are going to continue to seek influence in Africa, Middle East and elsewhere.

So are you saying that what happens in Ukraine will determine future relations with China? She said it much better than me. I didn't say it. I did not think. "It is the most realistic, the most credible and realistic possibility of ending this war. Ukraine liberates Crimea. Crimea is the decisive terrain of this war. Ukraine will never be safe as long as Russia remains there, even after some kind of terrible agreement negotiated. They will never be able to rebuild their economy as long as Russia can blockade all of Ukraine's ports from Crimea, so that's the key thing that can be done.

I think it can be done by the end of this summer, after that, the Don Bass, I think than the Kremlin. Will there be much less enthusiasm for supporting the so-called separatists in Luhans and Donetsk? The Ukrainians will be able to clarify that anyway. Crimea is the key and I think that will be done before the fall. US Army Commander between 2014 and 2017. ...if you were in that position now, what would you actually be doing right now? You would probably be as far and close to the border as possible, trying to get a feel for what was going on there by talking to our allies Poles. talking to our Lithuanian allies and going to Finland understanding what's going on there, but the key for the US now is not combat power, our combat power, obviously, our job is to defend all NATO territory, But what is the US military doing in Europe? is doing now with our German allies, our British allies and others, this flow of equipment and ammunition emanating from southeastern Poland and Jehovah, it's amazing what they've done, I mean, it's amazing.

I would focus on making sure that was uninterrupted and this, um, this. War has broken out five years after you left that position, what does it feel like for you to see that now? Well, the way you said it I'd like to say, well, the Russians would never have attacked while I was there, but the truth is they did. I attacked when I was there because 2014 is when the war started, of course, when I was when I was in command, so I think to honestly answer your question, of course, I have to say that in a way I am envious of the guys that Am I now dealing with the challenges, fighting with all the logistics, the intelligence, working with our allies?

I loved that part of being a soldier, I do, but there is so much talent in our army of people that keeps coming up, it was time for me to do it. get out of the way and have you ever imagined what happened in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea? Did you ever foresee what was going to happen now with this war? In fact, I thought this was going to happen. I did it, I didn't imagine it. exactly how it was happening why did you think that? Well, because I could see I was in the military for a long time and you know you look at what the Russians are doing and we didn't respond after they invaded George in 2008.

We couldn't respond properly after they supported the Assad regime and, you know , I'm looking around, the American army was getting smaller in Europe, the British army was almost completely off the continent at home, the German Bundes fair was getting smaller, it had lost its Meanwhile, the Russians They were modernizing, and even though I overestimated Russian capabilities, things were going in the wrong direction, so in 2000 and 2015 I did an interview with the Wall Street Journal and said, I think we're going to be in a war. in about five years, but that wasn't the case, that was just based on a practical military assessment and believing that the Russians only respected force and um, I wasn't very popular when I said that, but you're not in the military for popularity. there to try to make sure that you never have to fight a war by proving that you are prepared and yes, it is very expensive to do what needs to be done for effective deterrence, but look at the cost now because this war is What didn't happen it seems that the The cost in lives and money is enormous and everything was avoidable.

Whatever unpopular ideas you want to share with us now, look, when the Russians made their miscalculations, they relied on overconfidence on their part that they could just blow up in Ukraine, there was no way for the Ukrainians to fight back, secondly First place, we, the West, had not done much to worry them. I mentioned the previous occasions when we had not responded and then of course in the United States we were a disaster, you know, the former president denied that he lost the election on January 6, all this shameful breakdown in American society plus the way when the war in Afghanistan had come to an end.

I mean, you could almost imagine the Kremlin saying these guys aren't going to do anything. Germany was stillbuilding North Stream also until the end of 2021, so, for me, that is the most important lesson: it is what we already knew. I can't appease when it comes to a brutal autocracy like Russia, they only respect force and I know I sound like a broken record but it's a fact that they have never been anything more than an empire for almost five centuries and until they are . defeated on the battlefield there will never be a reckoning and whoever comes after Putin will be something like him only with a less effective military lieutenant general Ben Hodges.

It has been a pleasure speaking with you. Thank you very much for your time. By the chance, you've been watching Frontline radio four times with me, receiver Beau, our thanks to Louis Sykes, our producer, and my thanks to you for watching, goodbye.