'A lot will depend on how much damage was done': Brennan on next steps for Israel and Iran

Now I'd like to bring in former CIA director John Brennan, director. Thank you for joining us at this late hour. You know our intelligence agencies, as well as anyone, what their top priority is right now. Well, Stephanie, finding out what the facts are. We are just hours away from these attacks and there is a lot we don't know at this point and I tend to very

much

agree with Peter Baker and Richard Engel that a lot

will

depend

on how

much

damage

was

done

inside Iran by these Israeli attacks. Ispahan is a sort of target-rich environment, there's a big air base, there's a missile production facility, it's the Iranian Nuclear Technical Center, which also has an underground base, so it's clear that Israel deliberated on where they would strike. in recent days and they are probably receiving updated intelligence including satellite images and these attacks took place in the middle of the night so the question is how many casualties were there what kind of

damage

was it and I think what is the information Intelligence.

What the CIA is doing right now is trying to determine exactly what that damage is and then trying to see how the Iranians are going to react and we can know whether or not we are going to enter into this spiral of very dangerous escalation by some of the initial statements that

will

come out of Tran, whether or not they are going to say that this was ineffective, whether they know that the Iranian Defense Forces were able to repel some of these attacks even if they didn't, or yes or no. The Iranians are going to claim that there were a large number of civilian casualties, which will certainly fuel, I think, the rhetorical broadsides that could actually precede a follow-up Iranian attack, so again, it's still early , but the intelligence agencies are trying to determine exactly what's happening on the ground, the sun just came up about an hour and a half ago in Iran, so I think we're going to get some battle damage assessments that will be sent to the White House. so that they can better understand the situation there, they deliberated over the past few days and then made a final decision today, even though CIA Director William Burns called Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend a spectacular failure, given that do you think Israel made a mistake by responding this way.

Israel makes its calculations based on what it believes it has to do and the unprecedented nature of this Iranian attack on Israel with over 300 missiles and drones that came after the Israelis felt they had to respond in some way. Unfortunately, in the Middle East, the tit-for-tat and retaliation mentality is very strong, so President Biden was hoping that the Israelis would, as he said, take the wind and keep it to themselves and not do something that could actually leads to a dangerous escalation. I don't think at this point that Iran wants a major war because it will lose it and lose it largely at the same time.

The Iranian leadership also has to face its internal political pressure. and it cannot be seen as a simple handover to Israel of Israel's offensive capabilities, but it is clear that Israel was sending a message to Iran. You couldn't get through our air defenses, but clearly something got through because of these. explosions in isan, were you surprised by this movement? Well, the recent comments that are coming out of Israel, saying that they were going to respond in a very important way, you know, led me to believe that they were not going to be simply satisfied with the attacks on the central training facilities of the Iranian revolutionary guard in Syria and Iraq or ammunition depots or even drone bases that they felt they had to go after somewhere in Iran.

I hope I was hoping that it was some kind of infrastructure and that there would be minimal loss of life because I think if a lot of blood was spilled in these attacks, the Iranians will really feel compelled to be able to respond in some way to Israel, it could be with terrorist attacks. attacks, it could be with more missile attacks, it could be, as mentioned, unleashing Hisbah in a major way, but again, I don't think Iran wants to confront Israel and the United States at this time. I don't think they have the capacity. They could certainly do some damage with their engagement capabilities that they could launch, even against the Gulf States, but they will lose a war in a major way if they decide to attack Israel with their entire military.

Neither party may consider them themselves. the aggressor, both have continued to say that they are only defending themselves, but if this tit fortat continues, what will stop him? That's a good question, Stephanie, but this is the history of the Middle East over the course of the last 75 years or so. we have seen from one side to the other and they continue to point fingers at each other and unfortunately it is the extremists on both sides who are not willing to compromise on some of these fundamental issues and therefore obviously what happened with the Hamas atrocities that were perpetrated against the On October 7, the Israelis triggered Israeli military operations in Gaza, which then triggered many of these attacks that were taking place by the Houthis, the Hisbah and others, and this is just this cycle that continues, so it's hard to say how this is going to end.

We have made some progress in recent decades, but in many ways the Palestinian issue is often at the center of some of these events that tend to get out of control and I just hope that this does not lead to a major regional conflagration that may involve not only to Israel and Iran, but also to other states and the United States in a direct military conflict in the coming days. I will see many official statements and press conferences from a multitude of world leaders. What are they going to pay attention to when they speak? I will be attentive to how they will try to reduce these tensions.

You know there are some players who have an important role. You know that Turkey can play an important role here in terms of advising on moderation by Israel and Iran. Russia. Clearly, it can also play a role with Iran given the burgeoning. military relationship between Moscow and so uh China as well uh I think more voices on the world stage really need to advise as much restraint as possible, but unfortunately oftentimes it's the extremists uh within these countries within the occupied territories uh these are the ones that That will tend will inflame tensions and will try to make the conflict even worse, but this is where leadership is vitally important and I know Administration B, all the people in the White House, those who are probably still meeting there in the White House .

In the room and in secure video conferences they are looking at ways that we can ensure that this does not trigger what could be, in fact, a very, very costly and very dangerous escalation in the coming days and weeks, Director Brennan, thank you very much. Thank you very much for joining us tonight. We appreciate your time. Hello everyone, MSNBC has a new and improved app. You will receive alerts and analysis in real time. Live blogging. In-depth essays. Featured videos and the best coverage of the 2024 election. Download the new MSNBC app. Here we explain how to do it. you tap the App Store on your phone you press search in the bottom right corner you type MSNBC you click on the MSNBC app you click get or the cloud icon and enjoy it