The Conservatives are 'starting to panic' | Kate McCann

While Nigel Farage may win his seat, that is also not a given, so I think there will be an attempt by the Conservatives over the next few weeks to try to recapture that narrative, but it will be difficult if his party loses the plot. Kate, how? Do we expect

conservatives

to respond to this? They seem to be so caught up in the reform drama since Farage returned his leader in New Jersey and have obviously done well in some polls, ahead of the Conservatives in one. poll from last week, what would

conservatives

try to do about reform now?

I think it's a really interesting question and it goes back in part to that Times front page story today, which is less about the fact that there are people pushing for Sunak. To get more personal and more about the fact that the party is clearly

starting

to

panic

. I think the risk for the conservatives now is that this is what causes this

panic

about the polls but also about the reforms to take hold among the bases among parliamentarians. and what you start to see is Tory infighting over who is going to be the next leader and they start to focus too much on Nigel Farage's role.

In all of that, over the weekend we have seen a significant effort from Robb Jenrich and David. Davis on Times Radio on Sunday rejected this idea that Nigel Farage is the answer and I think we'll see more of that, you know, really committing to reform and trying to reject this idea that that's where the Conservatives' future lies. The reality is that even if this crossover moment occurs in a pro-reform poll where they outperform the Conservatives, they won't get anywhere near the number of seats that the Conservatives will get because of the voting system we have in this country. and while Nigel Farage may win his seats, that's not a given either, so I think there will be an attempt by the Conservatives over the next few weeks to try to recapture that narrative, but it will be difficult if his party loses the Labor storyline that talks about green jobs. today and forging closer ties with the EU on the carbon tax, what are they talking about?

Yes, this may not sound very exciting to listeners, but trust me, it's because this is Rachel Reeves, the country's potential next chancellor if all goes to plan for the Labor Party, it's really opening the door to some pretty significant changes. I think at least in the way the government thinks about the European Union, what Rachel re is talking about is essentially better deals for the UK and the EU. She now she started talking about chemicals. about chemical regulations and she actually says in this interview that it's with the financial times. Well, look, no one voted when leaving the EU was considered on chemical regulations and they're probably right, but what I think it's

starting

to do is lay the groundwork for a rethink.

There is a change in the relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union and this is quite good, it is risky territory for workers. If we are honest, there are those in this election who want to say that workers would open the door to further migration from the UK. The EU may even try to soften the relationship between the two sides, something those who voted for Brexit would not like at all, so it is the beginning of a move towards Rachel Reese's growth plan. She says it would help promote growth, it would help grow the UK economy and she may well be right, economists can judge, but I think in policy terms that narrative will always be risky for workers and what What about those risks for workers and how might conservatives respond?

They are clearly trying to hammer home the idea of ​​floating a large tax burden uh tax areas where the Labor party has not implemented changes in a wish that I soon call to the forefront of the times today being urged by cabinet ministers and high toys level to go for the jugular and launch more direct personal attacks against St. I can't believe that most of the last 18 months and two years have been quite personal attacks against K Stabber. Yes, I think you are absolutely right. How many times have we heard pmqs and thought Oh, that? It was, perhaps you know, a rather risky attack by the Prime Minister towards Starma.

Some of the things Rishi has said about his record, for example when he was Director of Public Prosecutions, have really been criticized for his tone and his nature in the past, so I don't think the Prime Minister is unwilling to follow the lead. personal path. I wonder if part of this is because conservatives recognize that most people aren't actually afraid of K-drama as a man or as a politician, which is what they generally think when they look at focus group research and you've fact many of these the words that come out are things like boring you know a bit gray not particularly exciting the fact that voters are not informed about starma means that those kinds of attacks on warning about It may not necessarily work, that doesn't want To say it won't happen, although remember we're still three weeks into this campaign and the Conservatives still have a long way to go in terms of the messaging they're using, I think the repetition of the tax issue is partly because You can see that it is working, because the workers have to talk about it in every interview, they reiterate what the workers would or would not do regarding taxes and you are going to see more of that in digital advertising and, according to conservative spokespersons, also They have one eye on the football carpet, they know that while people are watching the Euros, the coverage will take care of that, so they don't really want to start trying. strike new blows while people's attention is elsewhere, but there is still a long way to go in this campaign and today we have the final Manifesto, although it is not a Manifesto.

For some reason, they say it is not a Manifesto. a contract with the people, I think I remember standing on top of a windy cliff in Coral, but I saw David Camon sign a contract with the people in 2010, so I think it's probably confirmation that there is nothing new in the politics, um, let's bring in March Mark Hutchings, who is a politician. reporter Bas en cardi who is paying attention to this hi Mark hi why Wales why do you think reform is coming to Wales to launch its not a Manifesto? Well, it has proven to be something of a fertile territory for various incarnations of the parties. which Nigel Farish has been a part of over the years and if you go back to the post euu referendum in 2016 where Wales as a nation voted against, then the following year in 2017 in uh what were the wsh?

In the 2017 assembly elections, the UK won seven seats, then there was a bit of a split and the Brexit party came into the picture, but between them, between the UK and the Brexit party, they had seven assembly members. They largely quarreled with each other. others and all lost their seats in the following Senate elections, but as I say, it has been seen as fertile territory and it has been shown to be fertile territory in the past, it is not the first time that Nigel Farage would have gone to an industrial part of the PO of the South Wales Valleys to try to respond to people's concerns and no doubt immigration will be raised as a concern that people from that area may turn up again and that is why they are doing it.

Mera TI image of the policy there. For us, Mark, it's a Labor heartland, as I say, a post-industrial city. Many years ago it was actually larger than Cardiff, but much has changed in the decades since then, it is one of the most deprived parts of South Wales as a whole voted to leave the EU in a referendum in terms of the composition of the population. I think it's something like 97. 97% of the people living in Mya would have been born in the UK, so no immigration. It's necessarily a huge factor in the make-up of the population, but it's certainly something that people in various elections have raised as an issue and it's something that Nigel Farage will no doubt talk about;

The other issue, of course, is that while in much of England it has been the Conservative vote, uh, that reform has focused on what I think the message will be today in Mera, well, look what a government is doing Labor in Wales, focusing on the NHL and education, um. I heard Nigel this morning talk about the 20 million hour speed restrictions that have been introduced in Wales and which have proven divisive, so I think those are factors he will focus on to say: look, this is what it does the union movement when it is in power. to pick up those Labor votes across Wales and I think particularly in areas like the old red wall seats.

The Conservatives also won, but Labor would hope to win them back, so reform hopes to win seats there for all the other parties. Of course I said it well Nigel Nigel has come this far once again trying to collect votes when it suits him.