American Political Scientist Dr Shawn Easley Previews the Biden Vs Trump Debate

professor of

political

science in Cleveland, Ohio, spoke with us before joining us again. Thank you very much for joining us. Sean um, I'm right, right? I'm waiting for disaster. I'm wrong? Hi Michael, no. I think your place in people has compared it to, you know, the car neck and the car accident, forgive me, and having a rubber neck, so, and in fact, the analogy of, you know, specifically, a show about, you know, terrible couples together, is particularly apt. Of course, with former President Trump hosting the Apprentice show, you know there's incredible symmetry there, so no, that sounds great, yeah, no, listen to me, I know everyone I've ever talked to, but I guess that everyone I talk to comes from

political

people.

B, but everyone I've talked to is going to be looking at 1:00 time Sean, what time is it, US time, so here at Eastern time, Eastern time, 900 p.m. m., tomorrow afternoon, okay, and so, Eastern time, that's it, that's it? Boston and Massachusetts and Philadelphia and all that kind of stuff, uh, for you and Cleveland Ohio, are you an hour behind or are you doing the same time, no, we're on Eastern Time, the border goes to about the center of Illinois, which It's the west. state state west of us uh, I think Detroit is on uh, next time I could be wrong, maybe Detroit is on our time too, but when you get to Chicago, it's certainly Central Time and then there's also Wiston Time or Pacific time, I think.

They call it two, three hours behind three hours, so the Los Angeles market and the San Francisco market will hear it tomorrow at 6 pm, right at the end of today's work, okay, okay, okay , so in this particular case the expectations uh of a trader like you just said Sean um seems very high for us here we just think it's entertainment um I'm curious and maybe you can tell our listeners please why Joe Biden is doing this

debate

given that the elections are still four months away, five months away, sure, yeah, the conventional wisdom is that the people who accept the

debate

s are usually behind and are often the ones who have the most to lose if they don't make it.

The other wisdom convention is that sitting presidents always do poorly in the first debate, uh, and the general understanding is that, you know, they're busy doing the most important job in the world and so what happens is that they clear the C the first time, it certainly happened with Barack Obama against uh. Mitt Romney in 2012 and then the team gets together and says, "You know, if that happens again, we're done," then they tune it up and come back for debate number two. I think in this case it's fair to say that if that happens. uh, Joe Biden may be almost done, uh literally, and in fact, as we talked about last time, I wouldn't rule out the Democratic Party giving up on the idea of ​​trying to field another candidate in time for the August convention, where the nominees. actually named at the moment they are known as the respected nominees of their parties but they are the actual nominees but in New Zealand we get quite a bit of what you describe as Democrat aligned news and our mainstream media so most of our media are talking about the Democratic point of view here and their argument is that the Democrats are very confident that Joe Biden will leave aside tomorrow in the debate, the suggestion of any lack of mental precision, are you so sure about that? well, I guess I don't know if you know who Ben Jones is, but he's a former CNN commentator and he's certainly a coming out liberal and his big quote the other day was, "If Biden loses the game, then, uh." There is a tremendous amount of anticipation and anxiety certainly about his performance tomorrow.

I think he's Slam Duncan. He will keep the thing at all. No. I think if you got a lot of people to know his true feelings on the matter. They are quite concerned and even those bordering were terrified by the potential of this and the reason is they know the stakes couldn't be higher and again I said just a second ago that for Biden it is much bigger than this. because if Trump gets up and acts in his usual way and with a lot of grandiloquence and carries on and so on, he won't lose a single vote of the people who are currently committed to voting for him if Biden gets up and if he ruins it with a stop moment level then you could lose a lot of supporters and ultimately there's no question that the election is a result of that so the stakes are high and I think any Democrat who says that isn't. worry or think he's going to do a very good job, it's not really being honest, so your opinion is that Biden has everything to lose and triumphs over a free hit tomorrow, more or less um, I know it's going to sound silly, but I have this solution for x for the equation, uh, in my opinion, if Biden loses, it will be because of low turnout and low enthusiasm for the Democrats, yes, uh, if Biden wins, it will be because of Trump, if B, if Trump wins, It will be because of Trump and if Trump loses it will be because of Trump and therefore the Sun for X4, you know, three of the answers are Trump, which gives incredible importance to Biden's performance for tomorrow in relation to what which Trump is doing because his base is solid as he said so many times that he could do virtually anything and they would still be with him.

What I don't understand and what Trump's people don't seem to fully understand is the potential damage it could do to The Independents, which as we discussed last time is where the entire race is going to be fought, yes, and right now, the Most polls suggest that independents are defecting in some way as a result of the criminal convictions in New York a few weeks ago, the numbers vary widely. uh, they're something like that, uh, the easy under is uh over over under Excuse me, you know? Between two and 9% of that uh, 40% of voters who register as independents.

A good commenter said that there are approximately, really, about 10%. of people who are actually accessible, so if in fact those numbers are true, that would mean that 2% of them could potentially change and, as we know, the 2% could actually be decisive and, in fact, the numbers of the Mr. Biden they are up about 2% in the last couple of polls, although they are not up in the polls that are more important, which are in the battleground states, yes, and that's the problem, right? It's the six or seven states that, as we know, we've talked about it before, people are sorry.

I'm doing the morning show, as you know, filling in for my host and platform founder Sean Planker, just to explain to those of you who haven't heard Dr. Sha Easley or Professor Shan Easley before. I have noted that the elections will be held in six or seven states because of the peculiarities of the Electoral College that Americans have in those states. Has there been any change in the polls since you and I? Last time I spoke not really, uh, Mr. Biden is, I guess, tied or holding his own in Wisconsin, uh, he's losing some in Pennsylvania, which for me will be the swing state with its 20 electoral votes, uh, and the rest It remains practically the same.

Same thing, plus or minus 1%, so no, there hasn't been any noticeable change, given the strength although, well, I mean, it's notable when you look at the polls. There's a website that I keep updating and it's the In the aggregation of the Biden and Trump presidential political polls, no one seems to be more than a point or two ahead and that fluctuates, you know, within those margins, or has during the last six or nine months. I am interested in the role of Robert. F. Kennedy is here because he was being suggested as the saboteur. No one was sure who ruined Trump or Biden more.

Is this still a factor as we head into November? Well, it's a good question. Michael because many of the surveys qualify.