'It's a very big deal': Petraeus on the significance of Iran's attack

Former CIA director and retired four-star general David Petraeus, who also served as commander of the US Central Command, which includes part of the Middle East. Director Petraeus, thank you for joining us. What is your assessment of the Iran

attack

? Was this a genuine attempt to retaliate, to overwhelm Israel's defenses, to cause massive damage, or was it a show of force by Iran indicating that they don't really want further escalation? Well, I don't think so. I think it was probably a little more of the latter than the former. Clearly, it was unprecedented. There has never been an

attack

that came from Iranian soil.

And of course, these attacks also included some of their representatives in Iraq, Syria and southern Lebanon. There's never been anything like this in the past, but it seemed like a bit less than what they could have thrown in if they were really serious. In fact, it was probably a little less than if they really wanted to cause massive damage. It seemed to me a little similar to the attack the Iranians carried out after the United States killed their cousin Soleimani in Baghdad. That time, they telegraphed it well in advance and again, in this case there were no casualties at most.

It appears that there was an Arab-Israeli girl who was seriously injured and may have died. So I think there's a little bit of this Goldilocks aspect to this, although, again, it's a

very

significant attack. Iran and Israel have been fighting this shadow war in the Middle East for decades. This is the first time that Iran has directly attacked Israel from within Iranian territory, without using proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah or the Houthis. How significant is this moment for the Middle East? Well, it's significant. Its a big problem. And I think Israel will have to take some action in response.

I think it's

very

clear that the United States would like that to be as limited as possible. Note that the real issue here, besides Israel's security, of course, which is first and foremost, but also freedom of navigation from the Gulf for the oil and gas that comes from the Gulf and fuels great part of world production. economy. That's the biggest problem here. And Iran, I don't think, wants that to be interrupted because they themselves export around 1.6 or 1.7 million barrels per day. So keep an eye on that. Brant crude is already above $90 a barrel, and would really skyrocket if anything interfered with freedom of navigation.

In fact, we need to find out what's going on. Iran seized a ship the other day that it claimed was somehow

deal

ing with Israel. But this is another step on the ladder of escalation. I believe it is in everyone's interest to stop the escalation. But we will have to see what Israel decides to do in this case. President Biden told Prime Minister Netanyahu that the United States will not participate in any offensive attack by Israel against Iran. How would you advise Israel to respond to this? How worried are you that anyone responsible will just add fuel to the fire?

Well, that has to be a concern, and I'm sure you're aware of it, Jake. There is a whole menu of actions they can take, and not all of them are necessarily open-ended. They can carry out covert or asymmetric attacks, in cyberspace, etc. And keep in mind that, of course, Washington is meeting with the other G7 countries to determine what kind of diplomatic and economic responses should follow as well in a coordinated effort. But I really can't take my eyes off Gaza. At the end of the day, I have to get those hostages back. And I think it is still necessary to destroy Hamas.

You don't send the firefighters to extinguish. 80% of the fire still have work to do there. Alright. General Petraeus, it's always a pleasure to see you. Thank you very much for your ideas. Joining us now is former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, retired General James Clapper. So, first of all, because of the size and scope of this, we've never seen anything like this in terms of Iran directly launching an attack on Israel. So it seems to mark a change, a turning point of some kind. Yes. Oh, no doubt about it, Jake. That here a Rubicon has been crossed with Iran attacking directly from Iranian Iran proper to Israel proper.

That said, I think the size of the attack was very measured. It did not. I think the Iranians had to know that this would not overwhelm the coalition air defense system. And then, in the end, they declared that they had done it without having achieved much damage. So I think there was a message here. But I still believe, despite this profound event, that the Iranians do not want a broader war, strange as it may seem. But then explain to the people at home that you think General or they say, General Clapper, how can you say you don't want a broader war?

They just fired 300 attack drones. And missiles against Israel. But do you think the way they did it is significant? Well, yes, because they telegraphed it first. First they sent slow-moving drones, which you had hours of preparation for. And the Iranians have a lot of missiles, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. So if they had wanted to, I think they could have overwhelmed the Israeli air defense system and gotten out of the coalition, which was very important, I guess about 20% of the projectiles were neutralized by American or other elements of the coalition. So I think the whole way they approached this was very deliberate, very measured.

I don't think they want a broader war. Of course, now everything depends on the Israelis. That is why the United States does not have an embassy in Iran. Iran does not have an embassy in the United States. He believes this information about a week ago, maybe or maybe a little less, the Biden administration started announcing it or leaking it to newspapers. There is information that Iran is going to attack Israel. Do you think it's possible that Iran intentionally leaked that? I think it's quite possible. It is possible that it was passed on to us. I think they probably weren't very careful in masking their preparation.

President Biden's early return from Delaware summoned the national security team. All of these things tell me that we had a good idea of ​​what the Iranians were going to do. And then why do it? So why would they do it? Well, I think the Israelis have and the Iranians have their own internal political pressures. They have some very hardline members who now surround the supreme leader. So I think they have that constituency to appease. And the fact that they showed the parade or, if you like, the lonely parade in Tehran of the happy Iranians, so happy about the attack.

And I think that's what was important to the Iranians. And I still believe that they do not want a broader war, however incongruous it may seem. But their representative is that they are doing things that should not be eliminated. Its representatives, Hamas, massacred 1,200 Israelis. Hezbollah fires rockets into northern Israel. As you know, tens of thousands of Israelis cannot even live in their homes. The Houthis close the coastal passages, that is, the ocean passages. So that seems incongruous to you. And I think that raises the question of how much control Iran really has over its proxies there.

I think they have their own goals and they are going to try to meet them. And in the particular case of Hezbollah. Well, this is a great opportunity for them to intervene and increase attacks from southern Lebanon and northern Israel. So, you know, this is not a rosy outlook for Iran either. I'll put it that way. Alright. Retired General James Clapper, former Director of National Intelligence, thank you very much for being here. I appreciate it.