S&P 500 Analysis | Incoming Stock Market Capitulation?

The foreign boys had a great day. I hope you have had the opportunity to see this afternoon's video. If they did, I should have kept them on the right side of the trade now before moving on to today's

analysis

and

market

summary. I want to remind you guys. I broadcast live from Monday to Thursday at 8:45. If you want to join me, all you have to do is hit the Subscribe button below and turn on the Bell notification and if you want to receive an email notification before I leave. live, you can click the link in the description box below where it says join the live stream and I will send you an email notification half an hour to an hour before it goes live, talking about the box description below, if you are a trader who likes to trade with funded trading programs stop paying full retail price today is the last day to earn to trade you are having a 50% discount on all your valuation accounts.

I think it lasts until midnight on September 30, so again, if that sounds familiar to you, if you're a trader. you like to trade with funded accounts, don't miss that opportunity, right now, let's talk about this, we have problems in Paradise, okay, and we are going up and we are seeing news articles like this,

stock

s end the month with the worst losing streak . in 20 years hmm, worst losing streak in 20 years, is it going to get worse now? I told you at lunch that my internal bias has been bullish only because we have been extremely oversold, but I warned you that only because the

market

is oversold. doesn't mean it can't stay oversold it can't stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent now was today's

capitulation

low, well if we come here and look at the volume, today we had decent volume, we come and look at the vix. right, the vix is ​​down 23 cents, so if we look at this, we know we have to sit there and scratch our heads for a minute because we have the s p down 42 points or so, you know, a little over one percent, the Nasdaq is down 1.3 Russell barely went down. half a percent almost half a percent on the Dow Jones is down almost a percent and a half, but you know, we have all the indexes across the board and yet the vix is ​​not in the green, which is quite strange in my opinion, for everyone. has accepted the fact that we are going down and no one is really panicking, you will see that we broke the low, okay, these are new 52 week lows, we come in and look at the weekly volumes, oh boy, the weekly volumes are going up! now we have had three consecutive weeks of declines and we come here and look at the weekly volume profiles, you can also see that we never got here to the lowest value area from the previous week, this level is There will still be a level where we will have one we will have marked on our charts for some time. 37.77.

We are now miles away from that price point right now. Next week, what's going to happen? I would classify today in the or this week in the weekly profile as a d as dog shaped and I'll talk about that a little bit more in Sunday's video. I plan to release at least two videos this weekend, one I will be sure to cover the NASDAQ on the other is going to be a deep dive on the SP 500, how I plan to trade it this week on the composite profile, we can also see that we are way below of the minimum value area, we have two, okay, mark them. two consecutive naked pocs weekly we are about to have a third consecutive naked poc, so what does that mean?

Something to ponder, you know, over the weekend. Just think about that idea as we move through this week and now into the weekly. graph I also want to leave you with this, if we go ahead and measure from a to B equals c to D, we've talked about this, we have the 100 that come around 33 36, okay, that might be off by a couple. points or so, but roughly here in that ballpark and if we go ahead and measure from the all-time highs to this price point right here, we can see that it will be almost 1500 points away from the high that we see in terms of percentage. drop of about 30 percent that would be an average bear market around 34 is the average bear market um drop for the SP 500 now inflation pce came out hotter than expected today at 8 30.

However, the market didn't like it that. I don't think that's really what brought the market down today because we came and looked at the five minute period and we can see that the PCE data came out here just before the boom came, it crashed, but then we were able to break through the highs before before the PC data came out before we finally succumbed to the lower prices today around 12 in the 12 o'clock video here are the volume profile levels that I gave and what I said was if we break the area low value and we go up again.

I would, I would be bullish. I said that actually internally I lean more, you know, a little bit bullish than not. However, he wasn't going to be a fool either. Okay, in this situation, you still could have done it. I got target one, the rest would have stopped, would balance out, but once we broke the low of the value area, I said we have to look for lower prices and from that point, from the low of the value area, when you take crackdowns below it to the day's low which was good for a 48 point drop in the S P 500, now we make this move up to here, no, not at all, but when we look at the 30 minute profiles, if you are playing on the area of ​​highest value from the previous day. so you definitely could have played that drop on the way down, however I was using different volume profile levels and trying to stay on the right side of the trade and to be honest with you, I didn't even trade this afternoon.

I'm happy with the pl and the way I traded this morning and you know a lot has happened here in Florida with Hurricane Ian. There's still a lot of cleanup left to do to take down trees and all that fun stuff, so again I was doing some. a little yard work I said, you know what it's Friday, it's Friday, right, I'm going to go ahead and get away from the computer a little bit, get out in the yard a little bit, do some yard work, clean up, you know. , some of the downed trees and everything, enjoying the beautiful weather, nice sunny blue skies, and it was a little cool today, um, I think the temperatures were probably in the low 80s today, which is pretty good for Florida , it's usually extremely humid, so again, not a bad day right now.

Here is going to be the question. I have a very disturbing feeling. You know, as we watch this market, something bad is about to happen, or could happen. What I mean by this, we could really have a

capitulation

type of event next. About a week I have presented you with the seasonality graph that shows you that normally we, but normally we bottom out in the second week of October, more or less next week will be the first week of October, so we will see another week. and a half of extreme selling to get us to maybe hit that 3300 price point off the weekly chart up to here and then, you know, bottom out or we'll just continue to fall and fall and fall and fall. even further down to the right, so again only time will tell that inflation is not under control at the moment.

Jay Powell is probably getting very frustrated and we will see how willing the Fed is to market collapse the economy to achieve inflation. under control as always I hope you enjoyed today's video, if you did give it a big thumbs up until next time, good luck and good trading.