Ukraine: military situation with maps September 27, 2022

one, this is our day for September 27, day 216 of the war, end of date, so we are going to discuss some energy today, this is a hot topic, so there were clear reports that um North Stream won. and North Stream True has been that they've both flown uh here where there's kind of a red circle in this area near the Danish island, where he was born, so it's very clear that he's flown. I'd rather not get into that. There is speculation about who did it because many sites are interested in doing it, so it is actually not that difficult to do for those who don't know much about the Baltic Sea, it is very shallow in general and in this area the applications range between 40 and 50 meters. so technically it's not that difficult to blow it up in the first place, so it's important that you know that it is possible for many interested parties.

I would say probably the only one that could be excluded is probably Germany, Denmark and Sweden. Rest assured, everyone else is obviously on a list of possible suspects, so the natural gas supply was not happening anyway through this Super Bowl, actually North Stream One and North Stream as well, so it doesn't affect the Germany's energy supply. Energy supply in Europe because Germany is basically the economic engine of Europe. What this is is some kind of event that will be taxable by something else and we'll probably see if this will happen that way in order, but probably a week from now we'll find out and then it will be much clearer from the events that may unfold , who really did it, so I prefer not to speculate because I think it will be clearer who really did it with a high degree of certainty.

Put this way in relation to natural gas, now Russia is saying they are going to stop it. Natural gas expert through Ukraine, there is a gas pipeline, but it is hardly used, it is about 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, that is the utilization, the real performance. The capacity is much, much, much larger, I think it's about 100,100 billion cubic meters, so it used to be one of the main routes for the Russian nature of gas to Europe. Obviously now with words essentially close to being dead, but there's still something natural about it. gas flow that affects part of the price of natural gas in Europe because that kind of small flow of natural gas is still something important for the internal energy balance in Europe, so what is really happening is a result in Germany.

There's basically no coherent equation or audience policy, so it's kind of a play-as-you-go

situation

versus basically no strategy, so Germany is opening up on-call power generators, power generators and whatnot. they will do. they use, they are going to use this lignite which is even worse than, you know, normal, because if you, those who probably don't know much about this, there are two types of coal, well, actually, there are more, but basically there are, ya You know, normal, normal black. hole that itself is kind of um there are different types of that that just uh just for energy use and there's a kitchen call for steel production and so on and basically it has a much higher energy content basically the coal.

You may think I mean that, quite logically, the call is that you can be classified by the amount of energy content and Bronco has at least some amount of energy per volume, so what this really means is that you need to burn it a lot more, so this is from a perspective where you really care, you know the missions that actually happen when you burn coal, there's actually even a decent amount of radioactive emissions happening from the call of burning coal, so that's worst case scenario, you know, Brown coal is the worst case scenario and it's like that's what really happened, as you can see, because Germany was trying to do all this, um, wind and solar energy that really does not work and depends solely on Russian natural gas and generates natural gases in everything. everything else is outside and you're desperate and you're not getting anything anywhere else in the world, so you're just relying on the lignite that's taking, that Germany can probably mine, that Germany is going to mine in Germany, so that's kind of like that. as the last effort to save the country from a total collapse because that is, you know, there is definitely something on the table, since there are no changes in German energy policy, even right now there are still dreams of, you know, all this of wind and solar energy.

That's not going to happen and some countries are starting to realize the change, but Germany is extremely stubbornly persistent. I'm not even sure that maybe German viewers can explain the logic of why there is such behavior there, but in any case, this is what is happening. in um and this is an important development and I want to link to it. I'm not saying that this is happening, but at the same time there was a correct conversation about the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and there was a kind of internal conversation, you know, it was the Ukrainian people by one of the heads of the Defense Council National and generally described that this is if this happens, we will continue to fight no matter what, at the same time, the former Russian president, the video arrived. and he also wrote some kind of article where he said, "Okay, you know what happens if we use these tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?

The West will get scared and back down, and this is actually a very dangerous misconception, uh , in my opinion about the Russian leadership because he just spoke as a right person for the entire Russian leadership, it's not just the Russian president, you know, it's never just one person because in any country, regardless, this is not just the case of Russia, USA is the same, you know, Germany, it is the same UK is the same Ukraine is the same it is never just one person it is like there is no King like we used to think about this because the presence already you know me in some ways as the reincarnation um in a much softer form of kings of the past um, but it's never really any kind of king, it's actually the console in most countries that decides really makes important decisions, so he brought up this idea and the problem was that the idea that there is a big mistake within This Russian leadership only thinks about the Ukrainians, you know, the West just helps Ukraine and is stubborn about Ukraine, only this is just about Ukraine, uh, they don't understand that this is the fight for the status of the world order. in Russian you know Russia made the biggest defense they can do from a point of the West by attacking the existing World Order and trying to destroy it and that's the worst thing you can do essentially and this is the fight that's going on it's really about that .

It's not Ukraine, obviously, it's a lot of fights in one big fight, the Crane right is obviously fighting for his own survival, for his own future self-determination, etc., but there is a bigger fight going on at the same time and I don't . I can't say for now that it's not clear, but there is some connection between these two blown up pipelines and this whole talk about the use of tactical nuclear weapons and it seems that the chances of that happening are high, unfortunately, in Ukraine, it is as they say . In Ukraine it's not the end of the world but it's definitely something that will hopefully be avoided but based on the type of conversation it's very clear that this is definitely on the table and even the population is starting to behave like ready to extend obviously you can't prepare for that but to extend you can uh there's uh there's even some kind of information so I call it civil defense the former Soviet Union was called civil defense how to protect yourself in the case of you know, nuclear attack and so on, um, so that it's just uh oh and then another last uh kind of general strategic issue is those referendums we actually moved to Ukraine in um in occupied territories ended, ended um well, you'd be surprised by the results. it's 90, I think 97 to 98 in favor, it's as fake as it obviously gets, as you can imagine, it's a Russian side that didn't even try to make it look realistic at all, but just makes it honestly ridiculous. um, what's happening there at the same time is that all those so-called heads of the regions, uh, because they basically appointed Russians, uh, some kind of puppets or a directly Russian army, they all sent requests, uh, you know, for become. part of Russia at the same time something is breaking a little bit on the Russian side as a kind of Russian leadership.

I don't know if this is related to this pipeline or everything, but now they will not make additional requests to meet with everyone. the kind of National Security Council on Russia that will pass this decision in the Russian Parliament, so it will be put on a sort of regular schedule, which will probably happen sometime in October, so again, as you can see things in a way Russia seems a little bit trying to, you know, a little bit backtracking to what extent this is real or not, it can change at any moment, but that's what we can deduce from this whole

situation

. actually changes to them Battlefield Let's see what is happening there uh situational state the water is more or less the same uh relatively low intensity uh of the exchange of fire from both sides now let's go to the North Luhansk Front Line This is the most Important is where all the action takes place, so the northern part is a kind of stability, meaning that the Ukrainian troops did not push further east from any of the bridgeheads, one is here near the original one and the other one here in eastern qpis, so this is more or less stable here, where it is not stable for the Russian side, it is in this area between the river of skill in this corner, I call it, and the gravity creeper, for While the Ukrainian troops continue to move, they now change direction a little and begin to move north.

So the fight is happening in this town right now and just a reminder. The goal is always the far place at this time. The immediate objective is not Le Mans. Many commanders and commentators say that this is something like, let's say, a byproduct of the attack on whatever. and in kind of a bigger action, uh, but let's go to this remote look at the tactical situation here, so there's a road from Borava to Swatowest, so that's a road and essentially the special term is never the next village in the north that is on that road that was once Ukrainian. troops on that road that is straight Road there is another road that goes towards here there is like a small but swampy river basically here that is happening here we do not see it and the crossing is in this village makiuka here we do not see much action or attempts by the Ukrainian troops They actually attacked in the eastern direction because then they can return to this road that goes from Pukansk to Criminal and then to Severign, which again can lead to Swatva, so it seems that the kind of main focus is this road and this is where the ukrainian troops are trying to arrive and obviously move to svato as far as can be seen, ukrainian troops slowly but moving every day, which again says that their leadership forces are completely outnumbered, at this point where we can say no only in the number of people, which is always true, but also in

military

equipment, maybe not in tanks, but specifically in artillery, it is very clear that there is not enough Russian artillery here and the front line is moving too fast and it's too big, so this is what creates opportunity for the Ukrainian troops because if they were, you know the typical situation where there is a lot of Russian artillery, all the attacks would be basically destroyed by their artillery and they would become plane in big losses with no profits, so now let's see a little. in a thousand sections of this area here, so this is an area around the demand, this again is not important in relation to what is happening in the north because the objective is anything and then move in an east direction and basically free everything this.

Let me go back to this whole northern part of the Lux region and maybe that could be one reason why this whole referendum thing has started to fall apart again because the Ukrainian troops are making these

military

advances basically essentially liberating parts of the region from Heinz. which was previously controlled like 99 by Russian troops, now they definitely lost quite a bit of ground there or are in the process of losing it, so let's go back, this is an interesting situation just from a purely tactical situation, will the Ukrainian troops really manage to create a small pocket here or Russian troops and they will be able to escape again the same way they would as a zoom bridgehead and in that whole area, so that would be just an interesting case in terms of how difficult or easy this is.

Today is relative to, say, World War II to create pockets and so far it seems that it is quite difficult, so unless the command sacrifices the troops and leaves them in the pocket, but so far, the Russian command was smart enough not to do that at least not in zoom, uh, but here the situation is clearly dangerous, so whatwe can see here is that the only escape room route at this point left here is through this, uh, wealth on the right, so you can see. the road and essentially this road to extend has some artillery control, but the ukrainian artillery control is probably not perfect, but the ukrainian troops basically attacked thorski today, which is like a big village with the region, they essentially failed to liberate it. or do some big raids there, but essentially that is insufficient or enough to create a very realistic reason for the encirclement because, as you can see, this is the only escape route, it is the Ukrainian troops now in kalodisi, this village and basically in this uh. like the tea junction leading to K things and they could also be installed.

Key island, there is not enough information about this, it is like a gray area, so potential Ukrainian troops are also here, for this reason Russian troops were evacuated today, not because you know that the Ukrainians exert significant pressure or anything, they just retreat and realize that in the worst case scenario, escaping this area will be nearly impossible. It's entirely possible that Robert Show was evacuated again and you know they'll try to escape. obviously, because the gate can be shot very close very soon, uh, not to mention, if the Ukrainian troops just turn around and attack and cut off this road from this side, basically, they don't really need to take you on these regional tours.

I can just avoid it in business um a little bunch of legs here so essentially it prevents the Russian troops from escaping at the same time the kind of value is not huge there is no at least it is not known uh regular Russian troops this is just these units ad hoc of the reservists bars 13 and 16 maybe some parts of this uh 300 First military camp this is not just for those who probably knew and who have not seen the videos at the beginning these military camps are basically Russian sometimes it is Units of the size of a brigade or division, the occupation forces, whether in the caucus or in Central Asia, so this is specifically from Central Asia and it is on the division side, however, in Ukraine, as you can imagine, they have to leave some occupation forces. instead, so in Ukraine it's a part of the unit that we don't know, it's probably the size of a regiment, so maybe it could be even a little less difficult to tell, so some of them were, for example, brigade size, you know, that really means you have a battalion or two battalions, uh, as you know.

Consolidated unit essentially from uh from Isa Bedell to Battalion, so even you know, I don't know if it's three battalions, so it's very difficult to determine the exact size of everything, we can say this is. It's not bigger than the regime and this unit is here on the front line for a while, so its size is really even if this is the size of the battalion, that's really big, it could probably be even smaller than that, so essentially not much of the Russian troops it would just be more psychological uh I would say psychologically yes as a victory for the Ukrainian side that they managed to create a pocket even this will be a kind of small pocket uh from the perspective of the big picture it does nothing um but it just helps instill confidence essentially in the troops because pocket detection is a high level manual that requires quite a bit of skill at the same time.

I'm not going to say that the Ukrainian troops are on the first level in terms of being able to execute difficult dung like attacking and creating a circle and this is just, for some reason, the Russian siege stubbornly clings to the man, even probably more so from a perspective of public relations than anything else at this point, this is As you can see, this is a totally lost situation at this point and the Russian site also has no troops to change the situation, so it is hopelessly lost, let's put it this way, Now let's look like this is just another hand-drawn map. about just giving them, you know, making it more clear that this is essentially in the loop here, all the Ukrainian troops I need to do is actually just pivot attack and kind of attack across the roads to jump into this village and essentially that. said that this is closed, this is this bridgehead, it has been significantly expanded, unfortunately there is not enough information about the sizes of this bridgehead here, but he directly reports that Ukrainian troops liberated this village Deborah, which also creates the opportunity to cut this path, as you can see.

This is a very critical and also criminal path for um basically man and create problems by turning and entering into a criminal act that would create quite a bit of chaos in the Russian rear. Basically, this situation is really bad and it is actually for the Russian side and it creates a lot of opportunities for the Ukrainian side to exploit if the actions are quick, so let's quickly see how things happened. This is the 23rd. The next day, as you can see, there was also quite a big advance. 26 uh and this is the 27th so this is essential this encirclement so as you can see there was sort of an initial phase there was a slow movement for a couple of days and now again the Russian defenses seem to be essentially falling apart on this . the whole area and, as I said, the most immediate kind of games or low hanging fruits that the Ukrainian forces can achieve is basically that there is again River here that passes through the SWAT of the north, so that is probably what can be released as a result from this. safely and potentially again create an opportunity to basically, you know, liberate the area between swato and start a bisque is another kind of, you know, part of the action and obviously that creates a big problem for all these Russian troops that they are here trying to capture. uhmut and solidarity, it makes it a very useless attempt, let's put it this way, obviously, without really considering this whole mobilization situation, so, you know how it will develop, who just, nobody can predict, nobody knows, not even Russian leadership, okay.

We'll see when that will start to happen once those troops start arriving and they'll probably start arriving in a couple of days, literally, in two, three days, definitely by, you know, September 30th, so we'll probably start to see that the first units are simply dropped here because the situation is desperate for the Russian commandos, so they will be dropped here just to stop the disadvances and literally prevent the collapse of this entire section of the front line right now, so now let's move, let's move south, see what's going on in the Nordstrom bus section of the front line since they are more or less the same here there are no kind of significant differences rational attacks here who are trying to eliminate this Ukrainian investment in the lines Russian defense forces here around the Neva Nadarivka spear without much success then you know, continue the tax here in this whole area also without my success and then in this kind of thousand section south of Bahmoud again the same kind of scratched record but without a lot of success there and like I said, this is essentially being done at this point primarily by the Widener Mercenaries uh now let's see what's going on in uh, on the central bus, first line six here again, very similar, same pattern, you know, attacks of these alien cookies by Russian troops, also try to attack from this East Nordic direction here in a view called basically I just want to say from a From our perspective, it's just a waste of resources on Russia's part, but they still continue like this .

So let's take a quick look at the Paris front line. Things here are totally calm from a perspective of, you know, offensive or defensive action, even though the Russian side is always there. You know, citing that imminent Ukrainian attack from this entire Adara area, as I mentioned before, which may or may not happen, we'll see, but I'm sure they still maintain one of the most capable units in this area and also the 336th Naval Interference Brigade . I don't have the exact location, but I suspect it's all clustered here to prevent breaching the Russian defenses there. Now let's finally look at his son Bridgehead.

Things here are more or less the same. The same history. Small-scale Ukrainian tax investigation attacks. So the most important thing is to attack the Russian pontoon bridges and the fairies, yes, fairies across the professional river, there are some successes, but you know, apparently the Russian troops are not weakened enough to launch a major offensive here, That's all for today, thank you. to see and see you tomorrow goodbye