Florian Homm: "Uns droht ein systemischer Crash" / Aktien und Börse

Florian Horn has a gloomy view of the coming years. The investor does not leave aside even a systemic crisis, why he is so worried and why he still gives hope. I would like to talk to him about this now so we can talk. I can access a new interview, it would be the title. Halo Florian. It would be nice if you had time. Hello, it's good that I'm here and I'm looking forward to having the conversation you're worried about. Right now we are in an absolutely clear bear market and such shocks are also very typical of larger price movements, usually downwards.

If you look at them, plot the volatility, look before each dip and then before each dip from the previous year, you have a brilliant rally. that we had in 2021, then there is a sports correction or the sport for the making, we also have many private investors who have lost approximately 30 to 40 percent of their securities due to Monday returns of kripo baskets, super investments speculative, but even eureka hedge funds fall short In fact, they managed to obtain credit. They made losses of 15 percent. They were completely on the wrong foot. They said this euphoria will continue forever and now we are in a bear market.

And we can choose what we want right now, which I shared on YouTube on the exact day. By the way, this collapse of this Bergen rally newspaper we want to address stagnation, inflation or recession. These are Clemens's fatal words for publicly traded companies and we are not talking about a local regional recession, possibly, but one that includes China. possible through a global market and facing mountains of debt, adventurously high valuations and I see the mathematical example of the man in a special study on the S&P 500 and we analyze how much of these stocks have risen in real terms in the past in times of stagnation and recession.

The environments are and it doesn't even last 5,500 and that's why we've been driving a nice black 0 since the beginning of the year, so 23 percent gain, that's not a lot, but it's good in proportion and we just have a variety, that is. what do you have to say about it? Won't you get the impression that something is developing here without revealing the cards in our motto portfolio? You look like again, the thing is it's basically Europe's place through the bank, so what are yours? boxes generally we have long dollars that is similar to ray we have a heavy load in Europe gravel it is also true on the long side we are more a little precious metal plastic zoom more and more concentrated silver and gold less platinum palladium more raw materials than in companies , we have some super institutes that yield 89 percent, pretty sure these are defensive long portfolios because it's usually easy for us, especially for us, if we ever find a long position or that could be long, we can immediately find 23 positions short And that is also reflected to some extent in the portfolio and I think we will see a recovery in the fall, it is not known if this conflict in Ukraine will last forever, it may get worse, it may also calm down, but I'm pretty sure that We will continue to do well, especially against all our competitors.

I just talked about the Ukraine crisis and the main stressor or dangers are not yet seen. What many market participants fundamentally did not understand is that in 2021 a 930 fan almost 40 years of gold decoy scenario was completed in that time it could not work better increasing money supply across the board no perfect inflation no bipolarity among world powers China has produced well, so in terms of production there is a lot of relief. In terms of production costs, there are no wage costs, significant inflation. By 1982, systems around the world were clear about how seriously debt was being relieved, meaning that the adjustment to economic performance around the world was roughly there.

Today, at 20 percent, we are more than 100 percent globally fair, five times more. so it couldn't have been better Clemens and all these are 15 decisive factors, even if you are a little justified in a little self-promotion but it is closed in German, let it be quite important bwb

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- home.com then these 15 reasons that have changed all of us and we are in a completely new era of investments and you cannot work with the means that have been so successful in the last 39 years, you can rethink things and others use tools and that will decide who goes through this development with the greatest damage because we even predict a systemic crisis that at 25 we predict that you will not recognize the Western economic world as we know it today in 33 to three and a half years and that requires stopping focusing on a different perspective. investment and not like the classic license mistake of the past of saying that things did not work back then, it is different today, back then you just had to invest widely and you could wait and see that the setbacks were quickly compensated, that It was everything and the previous investment. world, that's all.

It was also ensured that the right style of ad was correct because if, say, there was a housing crisis in the US in 2008, 2009 or this big crisis there in 2000, then that was simply eliminated by printing more money. that the so-called Fed is the central bank that puts money in the markets and it can also be seen that productivity was at least quite good around the world until 2008, in the Western world From 2009 it will fall below 1 percent and we will be. we will experience negative productivity at least in the next three or four years and that of course has to be very, very bad corporate profits and obviously we have changed measures and environments and of course we also have a state railway apparatus ideologically influenced 39 40 years 40 years ago, it can now be said that approximately a quarter of economic output has doubled during this time and that means that the State is stifling the productivity of the city, which is inherently non-productive and therefore Of course, we have a The crisis of confidence also here in Germany has not existed in this form since the existence of the federal government.

The vote of voters in government has never been so low and so dissatisfied. A third of voters among women are dissatisfied with the government. who also have nothing to do. That's the Sam Clemens technology factor, but that also hinders investment and the willingness to take risks. So if you explain it very briefly because the topic would be like that, then even in complex chaos theory there are deterministic factors, yes, and they. It can be positive or even worse in the negative and systemic negative competencies, for example, the bad factors are that we understand it better. In Germany, the average age is 48 years, that is, the Italians are even older, the Japanese also have a significant economy.

At 4 56 years old there is not much left to wait in terms of consumption or in the capital markets. This is, of course, a long-term trend, which is a short-term trend, or so it means, according to Statista. make a clean balance and include state guarantees, etc., we inject new debts, etc., costs due to temporary work, etc., etc. We like to adjust the direction towards 100% and move towards economic performance. It is also a negative convergence because there are enough empirical studies that show that an economy can no longer achieve any significant growth after a debt ratio of 100 percent of economic performance and we see this across the board in countries where that occurs and of course there is also stubborn and perhaps serious inflation due to recession in a country divided, I would say, psychologically damaged, physically handicapped, happily extremely upset, which may even occur in the autumn because there is no doubt about that and it is can make uni krems Let's take young Danube as an example, we are psychologically damaged in an unimaginable way and our health is so weakened, our immune system is just psychological factors that converge and these factors there is only the Ukraine conflict, an accelerator and a trigger, but it existed long before the pre-Ukraine concept, huge inflation. trends and we simply wonder how the stock market can stay where it is when one in six Germans is at or below the poverty line and at least one in three Germans is now thinking about how to pay their interest, pay their rent, pay your electricity bill Your heating figures are fuel figures and we can all make mistakes, but these topics are yes and in my opinion they are above all the decline of a society.

It is also not shown in the courses, but now you only mention the Germany's problems hardly For anyone, a systemic decline is enough for us, let's take another look at Italy and look at this index with 30 users in a quarter of a century, which is not just Japan for a quarter of a century, it is still up 30 percent below the highest level at the end of the 90s. The population is much older, the health system is still much more desolate, the debt is correctly calculated and official figures can be trusted, it is much more devastating. The country is persistently dependent on tourism, which is restricted due to. fall in disposable income Things are similar in Spain and Portugal France long ago reached the limit of 100 percent of economic output, these factors are too flexible in all Western countries and the effects feed the long-term effects the defects grosses are uniformly more or less identical in all Western countries and that should and then we have this great engine that saved us in 2008 2009 China the crabs have also been on the zero line for a long time since they first declared themselves capitalists Daums attracts students a real estate crisis that has no parallel in Asia and let's continue with the real estate sector, let's continue with the increase in the government quota, let's continue with taxes on the rich, capital controls, etc.

I don't want to paint a bleak picture here, but I don't want to paint a bleak picture. Of course, we would be happy if the negative factors decreased, then we would also change our portfolio structure, but so far there has been a systemic crisis that could mean monetary reform, dementia and it is not even the first time that we have to fill it for ninth time since 1800. We easily forget that this happens regularly. So the trigger for the collapse is a combination of high debt, inflation, demographic change, low productivity and psychological and physical deficits that will also have a significant influence on productivity, which was still somewhat above zero in the last quarter, in my opinion, in the next three years and that in the Western world will be negative, that does not show at all even in the calculation and that is exactly what we are dealing with day and day.

Tonight with our team of analysts around the world we will say it at some point, but of course all this is very possible, apart from clients, and this decline would mean for us that for years good markets and a contracting economy Someone should explain it. To me, we are now becoming a fountain of youth in this Western nation, how the age structure is improving so dramatically, I always see many more opportunities, much greater gifts being distributed, deficits, total loss of control and loss of credibility. by governments and then this whole beautiful topic of more life is 90 percent homemade.

What do we do in these proxy wars and proxy sanctions? It doesn't matter if it is necessary or not. are all children, we still have such a close disconnect between the investment world and the real world, economically stationary, with significant negative changes, that's you, that's the only thing that still surprises me is that the market and the participants need a relatively long period. time before they actually use the stock markets The outlook and economic reality reflect corporate earnings for the second quarter, but they weren't that bad. The situation seems to be better, at least for companies, than what is seen now.

Just the last month of 2021 These are of course the Bloomberg polls, the year of the polls is that the overall SNP market profit margin has gone down, meaning they are still very close when it comes to the profit margin. benefit. Of course, this is just a snapshot. If stock markets around the world have plummeted, say 25 percent, then profit expectations are already in place for 6 to 9 months. And now we have to look at the companies' figures, that is very important. What we're saying now is eliminate inflation, so it would be nice if sales were up 3 percent, but depending on where you look, inflation is nowhere near eight or ten percent, so that's a drop or Real estate prices have now fallen by eight percent. then I'll put another 45 percent inflation at midnight, so for August at least we also have more, maybe 14, but it's a waste of 12 percent in the calculation, sothat you can calculate everything very well, yes, grateful, that also makes me think about my life because we have these conversations in our team of analysts, of course, one of them has toThe federal is the bassist.

So I look very carefully, we also look at one in his publications, of course, we have a lot of information and this creates a portfolio structure and that has been going on for five years and we will do it for 15 years they are just fucking successes. Some money expert is that and 8 is doing moderately well, that's easy to understand, that means the stock markets still see the situation too optimistic. You can use the price-earnings ratio, which is extrapolated by analysts. That's it, in my opinion. too The next three quarters and an empirical study are optimistic, so a study has shown a couple of exaggerations.

If analysts' market expectations of the last 30 years had been taken for the SP 500, the SP 500 would be today. be twice what it is, so I have confidence in the analysts is equal to zero for me they are analysts there are also exceptions contrary to the indicators they are always too optimistic otherwise there will be at least some bad sell order wildcards given in Steinhoff or in Ströer Adler Junaid it must be that they are ultimately useless, but they are not completely useless because they generally are because you can usually do the opposite of what you are doing Lisa bushes in the wheat market and it is always about Don't invest in this mortuary if you go a long time without it and get a full return, then it's about making intermediate money from companies that ultimately have no prospects or have marginal prospects through creativity.

According to Summ Peter, destruction actually has to disappear from the economic picture and be invested where capital is used wisely in promising companies that are not just dreams but also have some cash flow, perhaps dividends and share buybacks, so it is not pure fantasy if you look at the current situation with the financial crisis of 2008/ In 2009, the current situation is worse, which is actually completely different. We have experienced a crisis that is far from over, but we have a valuation according to Shiller Kgv or Cinema, which is the replacement value of the company on the Stock Market.

It is already in the top five or ten percent, including profitability as mentioned, price and sales ratio. We are still moving like everything is going to be fine even though we have already fallen quite a bit and I said yes, investing is just the research. The risk probability for us is the risk down 50 percent weak up the probability maybe 10 12 percent that is, there must be the black and market environment, the economic environment, the tables, the healthcare environment is seriously damaged generally in a negative way. yesterday 15 factors and I would be surprised if he changed his mind and what we experience here in the stock markets are absolute nervous spasms in a March bearish trend, simply and that is part of it.

There is no such history and ours does. just to compare with 2000, 2009/10 is no longer productive here, we can cope with even more and we are even more in debt, we have a global risk of a global recession, we are divided and we have it everywhere, whether the drivers, Whether it is Ukraine, whether it is Kashmir, we have serious future horses everywhere with possible economic consequences, good evening to the gloomy forecasts, what hope is there that it will not be so bad? Of course, an area as graphic as Ukraine or Russia can relax. , you can always paint the devil on your wall.

That would be emotional, but in general I am very, very, very optimistic because in such systemic developments, those who invest in an orderly manner and also maintain their flexibility and not swept away by these torrents will probably at some point see 25 26 purchase prices that are sensational if everyone goes into debt, the dirt has been removed from the system when there is another monetary reform, finally among us 48 53 fiat currencies no longer have value and You may have found a connection with gold or other factors, that is, when certain order returns after blood has flowed through the streets.

After all, that is the big quote, so those who are good at accumulating, I have no reason to have speculated here. or have gone through this whole ordeal to the core, they probably have a historic opportunity. Dealing with this means making money, stock markets become unstable or go up. Whoever actually addressed the topic has more than 3 million individual Western ears. America is perfect with us only shows 50,000 will be spread to deal with this, even on the way to instability of someone in particular, I am making a lot of money, so I am sure because half a million followers on my different social media channels already They have internalized what we are talking about. about something like that, and there is a lot of interest.

I think the last video with 200,000 views shows that there are a lot of young people. Other people know that they are eager to take responsibility for themselves and they know that there is nothing available. Any of us are alone, we run, we are in the hands of the state, otherwise we would not have these poverty rates and this positive environment would be positive, I want to use it for my own benefit, it is simply. a pyramid, how it spins, that means the bottom could be at the top. I will briefly review my book on the principles of prosperity, feed and animals like a billionaire.

I am not a theorist made with this investment. Style entrepreneurs have also been naturals. This is not theory and these phases are unique opportunities. More than 90 percent will lose almost everything, but let's say that ten percent have not understood that these losses of the masses will be reflected on them. This is just a game. The money earned. Don't miss out, Klemens Thamm, just others, Florian, thank you very much. I'm Clemens, until next time.