YTread Logo
YTread Logo

"Druck im Kessel wird zunehmen!" – Folker Hellmeyer zieht Parallelen zur Weltwirtschaftskrise 1929

Mar 06, 2024
and for me, unfortunately, these topics are not discussed in Germany in the talk shows, in the news programs of our economic and financial media to the extent that this topic deserves, especially and now I know what happens in the context of our story once in

1929

/ 32 Episode 33 Yes, he is known for his striking words, he does not take up space in front of his mouth and that is why I am even happier that today we are our guests again. Hello Mr. Hellmeier, Chief Economist at Networks AG, it's good that you took the time for us, I'm glad I took it and I look forward to our conversation.
druck im kessel wird zunehmen folker hellmeyer zieht parallelen zur weltwirtschaftskrise 1929
This week the head of the central bank shook the markets. a little more after his statement that official interest rates will probably be higher than previously assumed; Now it seems that the market is playing Volker's role. In any case, so far the two point zero has not really gone down, what do you mean? There will never be a Paul Walker again because all the circumstances of his chairmanship of the Federal Reserve were completely different than today, there were much fewer complexities, there were fewer things to take into account in this regard, in my opinion, "It is naive to always do a comparison with Paul Walker.
druck im kessel wird zunehmen folker hellmeyer zieht parallelen zur weltwirtschaftskrise 1929

More Interesting Facts About,

druck im kessel wird zunehmen folker hellmeyer zieht parallelen zur weltwirtschaftskrise 1929...

Back then there was also a different politics, there was also a different democracy back then, a different economic constitution in the US and in the global economy, and the market takes it if you take it. main action in your statement seems more serious and you didn't say anything different than what you said last time, but rather the stylistic device of recruiting repetition so that the market suddenly says oh, maybe we should listen more carefully and why Are you? Listen carefully? That, of course, depends on the timing of the recent disappointing inflation data release regarding the easing issue and in this sense it is a reaction to the data along with the words .
druck im kessel wird zunehmen folker hellmeyer zieht parallelen zur weltwirtschaftskrise 1929
The crucial question going forward is whether this development in inflation data will continue to disappoint then that will have a stopping effect, your words and also the policy in advance then the fan is booked on the other side at the time when there should be signals relaxing here everything is retracting the market is changing the climate that is what I mean Paul is consistent in his statements because with the data changed there are now different ways to treat his words and that is part of the process of noticing that they are nervous and What does it tell them?
druck im kessel wird zunehmen folker hellmeyer zieht parallelen zur weltwirtschaftskrise 1929
I? It will also be visible next week, before we now look at inflation data and the economic situation. Let's take a quick look at next week. There are the two important interest rate meetings of Fett and the ECB, which Fett will present on Wednesday. On Thursday the ECB always considered an increase of 50 basis points, so an additional increase in interest rates of 0.5% points was set if the bulk, but now perhaps also of 50 basis points, was already anticipated. There has always been talk of 0.25 Percentage Points. The ECB could even add a little more to further reduce the interest rate difference with the US.
So let's start with the Federal Reserve. I see a fifty percent chance for the Fed next week. in quotes only 25 bars or 50 bars. I even tend to assume 25 basis points why the curb effects that we have in the US in certain sectors of the economy that are essential to the consumption pillar are greater than they are Basically, in the financial media, let me leave This is clear on one issue: the Bankers Association brand mortgage market index is currently at 1997 levels. Meanwhile, in January 2018 we had a real estate market crisis at its lowest points. since 1997 and the real estate market and the stock market are of enormous importance to American consumers and 70% of the American economy is correlated with private consumption and in this sense I would tend to do it if they forced me and they are currently doing it.
I like that I will then decide with a 51 to 49 advantage from 25th when Joachim Nagel became president of the Bundesbank. I said it and now things are changing and I said it with conviction because we've known each other for many, many years, at the moment we barely have contact, I'm still a bit of a 9 degree person I think in certain circles, but In short, since then it has become clear that there is a fundamental change when the ECB has given advice and if we take the latest statements also from Mr Holzmann, director of the Austrian National Bank, on the four increase in interest rates by 50 cash bunker and then puts 5% in the room then we simply recognize that the resistance of the so-called doves is not the nations but those who agitate because I am in favor of a soft central bank policy, that this field of doves has greatly reduced and that means the 50 basis point issue but separate from next week, that doesn't mean the next steps are already set in stone.
The fact is that at the ECB there is an aggressive orientation in the revival of the pen, I see it as more balanced, as I said, and here we come to the next point, why can the soft reserve adopt a moderate approach? action has been taken for the first time they are between 450 and 475 at the key interest rate they are again at three where are consumer prices in the US at 6.4% in our country note point five so that They have made the reservation for me and the issue of inflation when we also look at consumer prices has been reduced, the same applies to producer prices so surfing has a different one in English called the quiet room room to move without stopping be conservative but slightly adjusting the dose of conservative instructions like It is at the ECB where it is simply said that I am staying in the English cache, so the recovery pressure is much more pronounced than in the spring reserve and that is the picture which I have too, but now they wanted to ask questions for sure about what's next.
Inflation, I know exactly and especially with interest rates, so do you really think that 6% in the US is quite possible for us, 5%, as she called it, which is the best case of the Falken scenario? Well, let's imagine that we stay a little low, so at the ECB the next step is now set at 50 basic pumps and then there are more steps. I can definitely imagine a moderation to 25°. Now we will get to inflation because The inflation scenario will be decreasing. At this time we always have the spikes in commodity price movement from last year, which should now disappear and relax.
Therefore, with price inflation we have an endogenous development of the successful economy itself and abroad. and outsiders should now, in the next few months of reporting, we'll make sure to go down a little bit, but where can we go? We can get closer to the central rate, which is now in the eurozone around 5.5%, I think 5.6. It is even an all-time high. That means these are realistic sizes and when that happens then we are back to seeing the psychopaths who note that there is easing after all and then pressure builds on the central bank not to act too quickly because they don't want the economy. it's also not fully graded, which means to me that we'll stay about half a percent below these sizes, that means for the US not half a percent for the ECB, something like 450 475, but that's not made of concrete, why isn't it?
Now they are made of concrete because here there are also external forces that decide. Now we see that the growth forecasts that the IMF wanted in January have been raised and my things will be raised even more because resilience being stronger in the economy is something that only results from endogeneity. by its own forces, not only in parts, there is also political economy if we look at what politics is doing now, then the economic program whether it is from the military sector, but we still have all this infrastructure development that has not yet been implemented. But in the end, the Republican Party 27 is already politically located in the middle.
Converting the economy towards sustainability means replacing machines that are no longer available and that no longer complement the environmental demands of these machines. These are all basically political-economic drivers that we are here. it's the ones in the room that have to be implemented by businesses, that means more economic activity here and now we're reaching a point when it comes to the media and long-term inflation and I'd like to emphasize this again because encounter It's so dissolute, really dissolute also from my industry that we actually causally said supply chain problems related to Corona that now no, that is not only related to Corona, which was a major catalyst of temporary nature, but what fundamentally have. , we have had underinvestment since 2017 in the world without investment and if there is investment, very little production capacity is built, everything is understandable from the microcosm of companies due to the uncertainties of the US and Trump action policies , etc. pp, then Corona and and and and but that is the main problem and if there is really demand now it continues to increase with limited production capacities, there is room for economic maneuver and then the inflation outlook may suddenly appear again as stickier in English as more persistent than we are now anticipating.
In other words, the better the economy is doing, the greater the risks that inflation will be with us in a more sustainable way. We're talking about another point and I know you're looking for a monologue, but I know. I wanted to ask the question, so there's still a point where there's energy at play for me right now. I want to use the term dissolute again, the dissolute with respect to the energy situation to be relaxed when we see the relaxation that we have in terms of the pricing of the energy markets, it surprises me to a certain extent because this opening of the Asian economy and when We see that the last IMF did not want a perspective so we see that it is the epicenter of the forces of growth and that is something that goes hand in hand with the consumption of raw materials when building a structure and also increases the energy consumption and then this relaxed situation that we live in now 30, which perhaps is also artificially produced to a certain extent by the futures markets and certain interests that are behind it, then this relaxation means, in my opinion, at least questioning once again whether to the global economy is doing better, higher consumption of raw materials, a slight increase in raw material prices again from the current base, so in addition to endogenous pressure on prices, wages and price spirals , we have heard the train 12% at least 500 euros and so on, then it could The inflationary pressure will be at these levels of five six percent in the end or maybe up to 7% again after the current fall and then We will return to discuss the topic completely, so this is short term, I'm pretty comfortable that we are moving towards the core inflation rate.
If the economy is better, the pressure in the boiler will basically increase and then we can say one thing: Joachim Nagel It is a stroke of luck for us, at the head of the Bundesbank, because it follows this line, so children not only recognize the structures . We recently talked about the Aristotelian structure with economics and that is exactly what Joachim Nagel and perhaps now also Mr. Holzmann Some other personalities within the ECB and one thing we know from the past, even if it is painful in the short term, each adjustment Structural, if it is sustainable, takes time.
It removes some fat from the application of the capital production factor, but it optimizes the overall picture to win in the future and we must not forget it and in this sense I prefer this pain that can threaten from this side in the short term instead of a ship in the wrong direction. They have the investments that are definitely necessary in infrastructure. projects we have tackled. The question is of course where the money will come from, if companies no longer have their wallets so loose, consumers also keep their cash, the savings rate increases significantly if there is something If saving is stopped at this time, then the State will have to go into debt, that would again go against Mr.
Nagel's policy, so, for example, you can also listen to a certain Flasbeck to colleagues of his from his childhood between the camps, now let's say that that is exactly the problem , so there is no easy solution, basically it is about saying in the current environment that we need a restructuring of the world's production potential, the best restructuring would be like this and now listen carefully that we return to Peace to be able to optimally use the potential given throughout the world, I know, I have blue eyes, that sounds naive because behind it there are other geopolitical interests that want to share the world.
Wanting to share the world means accelerating the inflation train, nothing more, and by doing so, they do not do the world any good in terms of humanistic prosperity. Fight againstglobal povertyService and not in the sense of preserving life because it is accompanied by military conflicts, then at the moment when that should arise, this issue also decreases, that is the first point, the second point, yes there will continue to be fiscal stimulus for Regarding the political economy, I spoke at the beginning about infrastructure programs, the funds have been allocated, they are not being implemented at the moment, that is the crucial point and this is clearly at the expense of the Northern budget to a large extent. but if we talk about Head 27, then it will go to the industry and they will be forced to do it because otherwise you will not be able to maintain your business at all, you will come from a place where you do not have enough investment. and there's pressure to invest anyway, and that's what's going to happen if you don't want to say goodbye to the world of competition and you want to say goodbye to the business now.
But let's move on to the next topic with the given aspects, I think of yours, that is this, it is a subsidy policy through the 370 billion US budget program and then another 52 billion program to eliminate the semiconductor industry from Taiwan and move it to the US. So if we look at that, we can see that there is quite a bit of fiscal acceleration and it clearly counteracts the political approaches of the central banking sector, they are the lambs, but who will win here is the Politics or the central bank is politics and that brings us to the topic.
It was previously revealed that perhaps the inflationary pressure we are currently working on will be more persistent in the medium term than it seems now, with the hope of saving later and where the current inflationary pressure is coming from at the moment, especially if we We look at energy prices and gasoline pumps, for example, have fallen significantly in recent weeks, but inflation here is 8.7%, the same level as in January, according to preliminary calculations. Where does it come from? Is inflationary pressure coming in the services sector at this time? an important role and represents more than 50% of the added value, so at the moment price increases are taking place, which are also an important part of the wage price spiral, but that is provisional so far and on the other hand , "A lot of companies have price increases for everyone.
There is an ifobarometer that says that is bullshit that is going down right now, so I think since February let's say now at 29% and companies are planning price increases that "they come from the last 35 or 50%." year, that means that initially it seems that the trend relaxes to some extent, but we are talking. Here there are still about one in three companies or almost one in three companies that want to increase prices and then we see that this is the endogenous pressure on prices that arises. and we also have to pay and I say it here too.
I am not a friend of the socialist social market economy as we have been promoting for 30 years, but the social market economy and the social market economy also include the factor of responsible procession. The capital and last year we experienced the largest real wage losses in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany. The price we pay for the border crisis with Ukraine is that not only 380 billion asset losses are four percent real and losses in the total wage bill. We are talking about magnitudes like a multiple of Ukraine's economic output in 2019 before the whole crisis and of course that must also be compensated by the people here with their livelihoods and in particular those fighting for their lives and they are not at the top. income range, that these livelihoods are maintained and therefore it is right that we catch up with wage increases, but my wish may be that that is the case here between four and seven percent, not 12 percent, because if we exceed this then all inflation will become even more expensive, with negative consequences for the general economic model, which should be replaced to a certain point, between four and seven percent, and then adopt moderate reforms during those years, under the condition that inflation does not have to be perfect.
Lately the issue of the energy crisis has also been relaxed, which was completely different when we last spoke in the autumn; there was much fear that it might be a hard winter after all. Of course, time has helped us since then. But what is the verdict for the federal government if it then has to give red ratings to schools? Actually, everything has been going pretty well so far, so what are you doing? I'm totally thrilled with Harbeck and Scholz and, simply put, it was an ironic situation. management satisfactory structure management 6 and those who force the situation management of the current situation with a 200 billion program it remains to be seen if it will be exploited to the maximum, psychology always works now we are seeing prices for customers below 500 euros per unit in the Amsterdam stock exchange On the exchange we see the fall in oil prices, many falls in raw material prices, everything seems quite good at the beginning, so the management of the situation is good, we had security of supply in the winter , the probability that we will also supply in the next one is high, that is good, but it does not change the structural problems that this causes for the German economic area if we really make this switch to LNG in the first place a lie for ourselves today data came out 600 the EU has increased Russia's LNG imports increased by 46 percent in the last 12 months, so we are replacing cheap pipeline oil with expensive LNG.
Pipeline gas via expensive LNG gas also from Russia in addition to the USA which are even more expensive. I must say that he pays because these bills are the first. of all the milkmaid bills went to the right pocket because I, for that reason, hit Russia with it, not, as we would like, also the Russian structures can record economic data and we lie to ourselves, but who pays the bill ?, our private homes have the existentially necessary partial situation and our economic location in terms of investment attractiveness, it is not in vain that we have fallen from the lowest place of 21 countries to 18th place in which they have the lowest price for this location, thank you Harbeck, thank you annalenchen now you have people who really have a tremendous amount of knowledge and experience in their lives and who have also worked in business and have always paid taxes there when you have people like that.
The top has done it, so things are going very well, we haven't solved any problems. , none, if we implement this LNG story, we will pay about three times the price before the Ukraine crisis if everything goes well or a price of four to five times is a location disadvantage and our companies vote with their feet. BMW is now investing in the program more energy security and prices, I think they are at 25% of our gas price right now, just as an example, less red tape, less bureaucracy, business friendly and performance oriented system compared with ours, where we say that all the top performers are not that good because we would like everything to be more relaxed and fun and then relax and discuss the balance live, which is why BMW is investing billions of amounts now in South Carolina.
Bayer is moving all its pharmaceutical research to a brain that we will have here in Germany to the USA. BASF will go with 10 billion to China is building in Ludwigshafen, it is becoming more and more an industrial museum, what is it doing Linde? Can you list in the US? Who are the car suppliers? Schaeffler says let's invest in Germany, let's not go, let's go somewhere else in the US, etc., etc., and these are not cheap jobs that are now being eliminated, these are the ones who support this system and let me end this with a I thought: it is not the state that makes money, the state distributes the money, rebuilds the capital that stops the sum of all companies is the source of all income for the state and for them private households and then comes the state and says okay, we distribute from here to there and to there and that within the framework of social justice or supposedly social justice and if we do not maintain this stock of capital then the income of private households and the state will fall for the state, then the state cannot provide the subsidies that are still common to us today, which means that not only the prosperity of a country is reduced, but also the function of the welfare state, which often leads us to know that We have seen a euro deficit crisis in southern countries, a certain dissatisfaction among the population. a socio-political essence of close politics can end discreetly and, for me, these topics are unfortunately not discussed in Germany in the talk show discourse, in the news programs of our business and financial media to the extent that this topic deserves , especially now that Know that in the context of our history, once in

1929

/32, episode 33, it was the economy, as they said, it was stupid, everything depends on the economy, society also became politically stable and we are doing open heart experiments here and something like that I haven't experienced anything like that in the history of Europe and the US in the last 500 years and I don't know what it is.
It's definitely a tough situation right now with all the companies moving elsewhere. investing and not making new investments here in Germany, what exactly do I have to change? What concrete solution proposal do you have in this regard? Habeck and a Minister of Economy and Finance Lindner, what should change in the coming years or even in the coming years? In the short term so that we can avoid this exodus of people? Companies in the US and China simply leave the issue of tax policy and that is what Mr. Linden opened up. We are a high tax country and also very high taxes, so we have "The worst conditions everywhere and the only advantage we have is our economic group.
That's what I mean, we have huge angels and extensive supply chains. If I have 437 for steel, if one producer fails, then I have a second in my area of ​​50 to 100 kilometers who can step in. This is a huge force of efficiency that we have that cannot be quantified and can now be measured in money, but the basic structures of our economy are very productive and this is an issue that has always been able to largely counteract these negative problems of overregulation and the relatively high tax system if now we lose it due to lack of investment everything is standing we are a country with high taxes we are a country with high regulations not the country is performance oriented but rather a country of distribution that has now become socialist from the social market economy, we lag behind in education, our infrastructure is you can optimize, to put it politely, and I also do our IT, so we have it everywhere.
Disadvantages and that was our only advantage and if we play with it then we are playing with much more than what people know today and of course there is no digital process from one day to the next, black and white should be successive processors , so first we see that we are looking at taxes the high tax bracket going out to the middle field is one point the second point is let's look at Japan what does Japan do so Japan depends on fossil fuels like us Japan sanctions Russia but yes it matters to Japan now oil from Sakhalin from the Russian fields again as if nothing had happened, we can see that the situation of the sanctioning countries is quite heterogeneous, that is, there are countries that do it, there are other countries, there are those who do it with their words but not with his actions.
I look at Japan and what do we do? It is strict although we are not at all forced because we know exactly that, as the head of the international energy agencies said, it does not work without Russia. raw materials no matter what and that's why we have labeling, that's why tankers are being repackaged or on the Greek coast off the Chinese coast we get Russian LG from China, which is Russian LG, but as if the Chinese perceive the Chinese energy like China. Let's make it clear and also take into account the normative force of the fact and finally put an end to this meat-grinder Ukraine, because Ukraine is paying with its lives for the geopolitics of third countries.
Is that what's happening here? I would like to refer you to a follow-up program for ARD Spring 2014. There are only parts left because you would like to have it. Do not hesitate to contact me. I still have the original and it contains everything I have already said in other programs. But what Putin understands today as a narrative. is presented in detail in ARD and let's do it directly in the face of the historical truth and then find a solution for the European space for the people of Europe, especially Ukraine, but also for the Russians who are also on the front lines falling at this moment. "It is the worst thing we have.
If we solve this problem, we will have many problems and I do not think we should proceed ideologically. If history has left us empty, anyone who wants peaceIt must always be pragmatic. Ideologues consider their way back to inner and outer peace, yes, that's what the greats also did, as they say Adenauer Pillowenger, as everyone is called Schmidt Brand. They hid in the back rooms and locked themselves in for a while. They tried to find a solution for a few days, but at this moment it really seems that war also exists, there really are fronts that are totally hardened, in reality no one is willing to negotiate, even if wars are ended at the negotiating table.
How can such a situation arise that you actually sit down at the table with the conflicting parties and break everything? It only works if both parties are ready. You can recognize it by the pain that both parties suffer because not only one party has made mistakes, but mistakes have been made on both sides and that's up to magical politics. We now know that Annalena's Bismarck Room at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been abolished. I say openly that you don't know his political style because he had exactly this empathy for others and being self-critical to force solutions.
Latent escalation is also a form of solution but it's probably the worst it can be and this point is in Mine didn't reach it either and the other point is I can't tell you so I'm one of the people who aren't very well received in Berlin at the moment and is not even being considered for such formats, even though the forecast is a disaster all around. Period since 20 14 is bribery, but you don't want something like that because it doesn't fit the native, that is the basic problem we have in this country that it is not those who act and have knowledge who put the shit in places, but those who they believe.
Having that there is a big difference in addressing Bismarck from 1870 to World War I works well with the status quo. Of course, right now it's not that easy. I definitely do not want to be in Chancellor Scholz's place, on the one hand I do not want to upset the United States, my ally. On the other hand, there is also conflict. with China, which on Russia's part remains neutral and still does not supply us with weapons, but we are also very dependent on China, so almost all electronic components have a Chinese chip, at least more Taiwanese, what do you think the words? lately between the USA and China, so the Chinese Foreign Minister gave a very clear warning, the USA has to be careful, let off the accelerator a little, take your foot off the accelerator and do not accelerate so much because otherwise A The derailment of the conflict can threaten even what do we estimate China is invading Taiwan this year.
I mean, you won't see the United States dismantle the semiconductor industry here and transport it to your own country. So I see exactly the latter. The United States is doing what it is doing, and once it has achieved that, of course, we will bring numbers from Thailand, now we have a contraction in economic output, we had a decline in industrial production of -20% in the last month of the report and It can be seen that this trend has been taking hold for about a year and a half and has something to do with Taiwan's demonstration in favor of its friend the US, which means that this US friendship.
It is great for the US to buy the weapons and spend their money on them in the US and at the same time the US attracts the way to one of the shields. The key to driving out industries is to move them to the US with 52 billion in non-WTU compliant subsidies. , so at the moment Taiwan, which currently still produces 63% of the world's semiconductor output, has an ace up its sleeve in terms of geopolitical and geoeconomic importance. Going back to the status of UN Resolution 2758 of 1971, China has the right of exclusive representation, etc. Also through Taiwan, many heads of state who were once friendly to the US can also take advantage of this.
Remember, as long as it fights Iran, it can quickly become irrelevant to Washington the moment the economic or geopolitical aspects are no longer sustainable enough and that is the risk, the opportunity, depending on how you look at it, for Taiwan, but I don't see any attack This year, at the current People's Congress in Beijing, the new foreign policy chief said very clearly that they were working towards a peaceful solution, but that the United States was on the verge of overreaching because what it is doing is actually an invasion of sovereignty. Under international law based on Resolution 2758, Ms.
Angelina Bierbock should also know that she is automatically an expert in international law. If I have sovereignty, it is a violation of international law and that is the correct side. There is always a moral and emotional conflict. side, there is no doubt, but from the point of view of international law it is completely clear that here is the right side and who is on the wrong side. Yes, if China turned off the tap now, if you play with the scenario that the conflict escalates and rare earth exports stop because of me, then ultimately you can forget about the entire energy transition.
Because everyone should have a solar panel because it contains silicon or in wind turbines because the components also come from China. How does Germany really get out of this dilemma so that we can reduce our dependence on China but ultimately keep everything peaceful? That's why we want to do one thing here at the moment when we want to depend on Russia. China is fighting and who do we really increase them with and also increase them? That's not true at all. I am a friend of the US in the sense of the US Constitution in the sense of international law, but I am certainly not a friend of the government of the last few years, especially since 1992 under the Wolfritz neocon issue because they are totalitarian statements because they have changed something compared to the time when we had the Marshall Plan and since then international law will have been violated according to the good sanctions of the dentists.
According to its type, the WTO has been destroyed and all this at the expense of German, European and world interests, and if we critically follow this attack by the USA, this aggression against these structures and then criticize them, I have to be honest and say, then I wonder where is the factual basis? I've been right on every point I've made over the last few years or so since the late 90's, and those who are right are also right morally, by the way, values. -based, technically because this totalitarian statement by the neoconservatives goes against all the values ​​we have in the world.
The West has because it is a task of the sovereignty of the states and the self-determination of the democratic constitution, so if I name all that then I am a critic of the USA, no, that is me, that is me in this matter , but I have nothing against them USA I sing Elvis Presley I watch Katrin Western I listen I think the US Constitution is sensational when it's full of life but the discourse in the US is not is homogeneous, what is happening there is exactly that part of their Constitution wants to oppose the current forces and that is why I have to say that Amazon is making this criticism objectively, it is discriminatory and I read it, but I just want to thank you for mentioning that because I hurts.
I defend real values ​​and values ​​are universal and cannot be applied arbitrarily and this is exactly the position I defend and This position is now being criticized here, which is a denial of values ​​themselves. So I would definitely like to take advantage of your experience again for a moment, including what it is. When it comes to the subject of capital markets, the chief analyst At netfonds has been around for a good year, you can say no, or almost a year, and the DAX has already given some early praise and has lately clearly outperformed the American indices.
At the moment, I am quite calm about it, so it is not a reassessment of Germany's position in Europe that is worrying, but rather it is explained by the fact that last year, when the Ukraine crisis broke out in February, there was a really dynamic increase. in the number of military conflicts There is an existential risk for our economies in Germany, but also in Western Europe, and this has been assessed by the markets, especially in London and New York, which means that the main market participants in the world have changed from Europe. Screw it, it happens here and there.
We ourselves do not have a true culture of equity to absorb something like this, which is why the negative amplitude has sometimes been very pronounced in the US when this existential risk through state intervention was leveled for the next generation. , our 200 billion euro program was leveled off and they did not imagine these final negative scenarios. A saturation, a saturation of the short position, there was nothing new and when something like this happens then you have to have a countermovement and of course we do not have a stock market culture or liquidity, this countermovement and the bearish movement are much more aggressive than the movement in the US markets, the explanation and what we have now is actually a situation where this short covering has been reduced to a moderate level. and this results in the kind of current performance of European markets against which there must be an anomaly that was based on an anomaly the other time.
Only then would it be better to sell proportionally to Europe and that is now being bought until the short position is covered, but there is no new evaluation of the quality of the location because it has stabilized in the short term, but in the medium term nothing has changed structurally Europe has the worst cards in the global context and as an example I'll just say again that you are CFO and CEO and one person and you have to invest ten billion globally, you have three locations to choose from: US. , Europe, Western Europe or emerging countries and has to exploit an economic area today in the debate about which field is a victim.
Yes, so imagine the markets in the future, music will be played it will be cancelled, Europe will not be cancelled, that's what you mean, so the US is an alternative, they are an alternative because they have cheap raw materials for me , security of supply, etc. but Europe is exactly this, not all issues and Europe is also politically a bunch of chickens, so when I look at what we have done with Europe in the last 20 years, there is no longer a scene of political stance and they need it, but yes They are a major investor in the world, so they also need it through politics to represent their interests and this motley bunch of chickens.
Europe cannot represent the interests of capital factor of production to the extent that perhaps China or the United States can and these "There are big differences, what I am saying is also the location conditions where we speak. So the political situation is also one in which I have to say that Europe definitely offers no reason to burst into euphoria. In any case, they had municipalities. at the beginning of the year. It could be a good year for the stock market so far. So far, the lights of the stock market are still green Or have they become more cautious now?
The stock rate is still green but we are adding the points. Now there will be money in the DAX, let's take 15,000 50 points as an indicator and if it continues to rise now it will increase its value because, as I said, the structural issues that are important in the long term are not organized, the short-term cyclical economic issues are very good and there is a point that speaks for Europe and that is what I want to say at this point, one thing It is being critical now on the negative side but then critical on the positive side, but it is something that can accompany us through our fingers in the future.
The European Union has about 14 percent of the global economy, the United States has 15.6 percent, and China has almost 19 percent based on purchasing power parity, but we have about 18 percent of the world economy. Due to the supply chain problem, European production cannot be dispensed with worldwide and is integrated somewhere everywhere and that is for our industry what we still have. Even if there are no more investments now, at least we have this stock that is being used quite fully and that means we have it. In my opinion, the industrial sector and the stress point of view have good prospects for the next 12 months, what the energy situation will be like in mid-2024.
It remains to be seen and now I will also say one thing in one of my criticisms of our policy : I have the desire and the hope and I will tell you that openly that wisdom is finally raining in Berlin and perhaps the voices that are moderating are solution-oriented and not ideological, that these voices should be given more space because it is not about me here at Volker Hellmayer, it's not about me either. It is about leaving a field behind for future generations, that the stability that we were able to enjoy throughout the last generations, that they can also enjoy this stability, that is what it is about and it is not about vanity or anything else, It's just about this topic.
This is what we call in Latin the right-wing populists who open theircause and me. "We wish each other humility in the face of the tasks we really have. The reality is pragmatism, optimism but not opportunism. Nice final words, Mr. Heilmeier, I totally agree with that, in any case it remains exciting how things will continue in the coming months We will definitely run out of things to talk about. I would love if we could continue mid-year with a current update, thank you very much for that. For the moment, yes, what is your opinion on the topic of how to get out safely of this crisis?
Feel free to write us your solution approach directly below in the comments feature, also like, forward, subscribe to the channel if you haven't already, you can help us ensure that our channel continues to grow. Thanks to the Rising interest rates, property values ​​have also come under significant pressure, and share prices have fallen well below net asset value, sometimes at discounts of over 50%. What exactly NRV is about is explained to you in this video here on our second channel, just take a look and you will definitely learn something more and I would love for you to be there again next time with financial experts in an interview on the topic of sustainability The investment until then is good and I hope to see each other next time

If you have any copyright issue, please Contact