Israel vs Iran: A Clash of Military Capabilities | Vantage with Palki Sharma

Hello namaskar, this is the first post and you are watching a special edition of

vantage

with me py Sharma Israel and Iran are enemies who promised to wipe each other off the face of the Earth and this is not an exaggeration 2 weeks ago Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus Syria and now Iran has counterattacked, it rained about 300 missiles and drones on Israel the damage was minimal but the message was clear Iran will not stand still and although the word unprecedented is abused in the media, much of this was truly unprecedented. Iran has never directly attacked Israeli territory in the past.

I guess the million dollar question then is what happens next. Will it erupt into a major war or will cooler heads prevail? What are Netanyahu's options? Why Iran's Ayatollah had to attack who is superior in

military

strength, can Joe Biden stay away from war? Why is this conflict a headache for India? how will it affect you? oil prices flights economics we'll cover it all tonight also look at regional players who's where and why Are Iran and Israel enemies in the first place? All of this will appear later in the special edition of Vantage. Headlines first in India.

PM Modi releases BJP manifesto ahead of elections. The document titled Prime Minister Modi's Assurance focuses on women, youth and the poor. and farmers manifesto promises to implement uniform civil code and citizenship amendment act also ensures that India will soon be third largest economy Australian police identify Sydney Mall attacker nod was a 40-year-old man suffering from a mental illness on Saturday he stabbed in a shopping center killing six people and injuring many others he was shot dead by a police officer at sea Venezuela outraged by a new oil lease from Guyana Karakas rejects the concession that Gyana has given to the US In the US, the Exon Mobile company discovered oil in these disputed waters in 2015.

Since then, the long dispute between Venezuela and Guyana has only intensified. Solomon Islands prepares for elections under the shadow of China. The archipelago is trapped in a dispute between China and the West its current prime minister has promised to strengthen ties with Beijing if re-election is held on April 17 and at least 19 people die in the landslide in central Indonesia and several others are missing Torrential rains caused This landslide In recent months in the region that has been hit by several landslides, a series of Iranian missiles fell inside Israeli territory causing minor damage. It's one of the worst feelings of knowing something will happen, but not knowing when Israel experienced that feeling for most of last week.

The Iranian army was ready to attack them, but no one. I knew when it happened last night hundreds of projectiles were fired towards Israel we are talking about a cocktail of weapons Israel counted more than 300 of them 170 drones 30 cruise missiles and 110 ballistic missiles were fired from different places from Iran from Syria from Iraq and from Yemen, but Israel was ready for it, you see, this was a widely expected attack, a strong eye response last week, Israel had attacked Iran's embassy in Syria, they ended up killing top Iranian commanders, so Iran was always going to respond, that's why Israel. and their allies were ready they say about 99% of the projectiles were shot down some over Iraqi and Syrian airspace the rest over Israel filled the night sky with explosions look now 300 is a big number but these drones and missiles caused very little damage , around 12 people were injured and a girl died, and a

military

base in southern Israel suffered minor damage.

I guess the obvious question is how was it a joint effort by Israel's allies, especially the United States and the United Kingdom, both countries had moved significant assets. to the region, the US and the UK, so when Iran attacked they were ready, the fighter jets took off from undisclosed bases in the region, they shot down most of the drones before they reached the target, even Jordan He shot down some shells, of course, some made it. to Israel, but they were shot down by the air defense system and it has many layers, but this time two of them were key: the Aros system, which shoots down long-range missiles, and the Iron Dome, which shoots down short-range rockets.

Both use the same concept tracking a projectile shooting ammunition at it and making it explode in the sky is expensive but clearly effective but good defense was not the only reason for the limited damage Iran's attack was half-hearted they wanted to create a spectacle they wanted to appease their country hearing but the damage perhaps was not his goal Iran's Foreign Minister has admitted this, saying that Thean had informed us about the nature of his attacks. We announced to the White House in a message this morning that our operations will be limited and minimal with the goal of self-defense and punishment of the Israeli regime, which brings us to the reactions in which the world is understandably concerned about the damage or not of This attack is unprecedented in the past.

Iran has used proxies to attack Israel, such as Hisbah and Hamas, they have never used their own military at this time. This is the first direct Iranian attack against Israel, which makes it very significant. In fact, it was also reflected in the terrestrial reactions. The Iranians were over the moon, they organized protests and bike marches and called it proud and happy. At a time when we expect this attack to continue to the point that Israel is destroyed, we will never allow anyone to violate Iranian territory. Any enemy that contemplates aggression against Iran will suffer the same fate as Israel, which is why celebrations in Iran in Israel were more subdued, some said they were. accustomed to the bombardment of rockets and missiles, others were more cautious, in fact, everyone heard about the attack by Iran, but we are not afraid because we went to celebrate the birthday of one of our friends and we already got used to being attacked by In recent years 6 months, the situation is really scary because we are afraid of what is happening and all the bombings and planes that are coming, so the next thing Iran says is that the operation is over and they clearly mean it, if they wanted an escalation , this attack would have seemed. very different plus life is slowly returning to normal last night most countries in the region had closed their airspace but are now back up and running even Israel has reopened its airspace having said the danger has not passed much of that depends a lot on Benin Netanyahu has asked his War Cabinet to decide on a response, the question is what they will choose: more escalation or a truce.

Israel's own allies do not want an escalation. They have condemned Iran's missile attack but may not support retaliation. Look at the reaction. So far Joe Biden had a phone call with Netanyahu, calling Iran's attack brazen and also promising strong support for Israel. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sonak issued a similar statement, calling Iran's attack brazen. He also accused Terán of sowing chaos in the region and the German chancellor did the same. Olaf Schulz said that the attack was unjustifiable and irresponsible, which is why the West strongly supports Israel, perhaps not in escalating the conflict, but definitely in condemning Iran if this attack had been successful.

It would be difficult to overstate the consequences for regional stability and we support security. of Israel and the region in general, which of course is important for us, security here at home as well, this is an unjustifiable attack, it is a serious escalation of the situation and is in no way acceptable, understandable or tolerable, fortunately , the Israeli Air Defense Forces largely managed to defend themselves from this attack supported by the US and its partners also in the Arab world. We now move to the other camp, Russia and China, two countries that have closed relations with Iran.

Russia has expressed concern about the attack and advised restraint, but the statement also mentioned Israel. attack on the Iranian consulate, so it is a balancing act, the same with China, they have also called for restraint, but Beijing says it is a spillover from the Gaza conflict, so China says fix Gaza first, the rest will be fixed and what about India? New Delhi has called for a reduction in tensions and moderation, and has advised a return to diplomacy, as have Arab nations. Saudi Arabia wants UN security to take the lead. He has called on Israel and Iran to avoid war, but whether they will listen in the coming hours will be very important.

Israel has requested a meeting of the United Nations Security Council to be convened within hours, while Biden has brought together G7 leaders. If together they put pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu, they will be able to avoid an escalation, perhaps of course, minor consequences are still expected. Israel has already attacked eastern Lebanon, they are going to go after Iran's proxy, the hisbah, but that conflict has not broken out yet, whether it does or not depends on Israel's next move now, before discussing what will happen to Next, we will first tell you how this attack took shape. what happened behind the scenes what were Iran's calculations who did they talk to and what kind of support did they have now this enmity is a very very old story but the latest episode started exactly 2 weeks ago when the Israelis attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Iran.

He immediately vowed revenge. This failure of the Israeli regime in Gaza will definitely continue, as well as these desperate efforts like they did in Syria, of course, will be slapped by this action. Now the question was what the scale of the attack would be. Or in the words of the Ayatollah, how hard would the slap be? Iran had a lot to consider, the last thing they can afford right now is a direct war with Israel, at the same time they couldn't have done anything and we will tell you why in a little bit, on camera, Iranian officials started talking tough and behind the scenes they started playing with scenarios and their assessment was that Netanyahu was trying to drag them into a broader regional conflict, so they reached out to other regional players like Oman.

Iran contacted Oman. and asked them to send some messages to the US and this is not the first time that Oman has often acted as an intermediary between the Iranians and the Americans, so last Sunday the Iranian foreign minister traveled to Oman and apparently delivered two clear messages, number one: Iran. will respond to Israel's attack in a, quote, controlled, non-escalation manner, and number two, Iran, will deploy its proxies for the mission and that's exactly what they did. The missiles and drones were launched from at least four different countries, as we told you: Iran, Iraq. Syria and Yemen, so in a way the United States had advance warning from Iran and this communication was supposed to be secret, but the story broke, the White House faced questions, was asked if the Iranians had contact was made and Biden's press secretary did not deny it.

Has Iran been in contact through intermediaries with Washington to indicate that when it responds to Israel's attack on its embassy in Syria it will not escalate? We have also been very clear: I am not going to speak in public back and forth. We warn Iran not to use this attack as a pretext to further escalate in the region or attack US facilities or personal personnel. I will be very conscious not to speak beyond that from here or give any more details so that there is no confirmation or denial when "If you connect the dots, this is what you get the input from so could be shaping Washington's response yesterday, just hours before the Iranian attacks.

Joe Biden spoke with Benin Netanyahu, the president of the United States "The United States promises to help Israel defend itself, but if Israel decides to retaliate, the Americans will win." Not to support that operation, that's what Biden is said to have told Netanyahu, so while he calls support for Israel ironclad, he also wants to make it conditional. Washington also expects Israeli officials to brief them before launching any operations again. The question is: Will they pay attention? this or he will launch a counterattack now. I know. Big statements never help, but this one is quite accurate: the immediate future of West Asia depends on one man, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, this situation is tailor-made for him, it is an opportunity to Take the attention off Gaza It is also an opportunity to fulfill his career goal of striking deep inside Iran to eliminate its strategic assets, including its nuclear sites - just one problem, although his allies do not agree, both the United States and the United Kingdom have done so. . urged de-escalation, as I said, Biden has reportedly made his position clear to Nanahu, if he attacks Iran he will notwe will help, but where does that leave the prime minister of Israel?

What options does he have in public? Netanyahu is defiant, saying Israel is ready for all scenarios. citizens of Israel both defensive and offensive in recent years and especially in recent weeks Israel has been preparing for a direct attack from Iran our defensive systems are deployed we are ready for any scenario both defensively and offensively the state of Israel he is strong the IDF is strong the public is strong so he does not rule out retaliation and you can see why Netanyahu's popularity has hit rock bottom. The only thing keeping him in office is the Gaza war, but he is running out of places to attack.

Israel has reached the southernmost point of Gaza. Sooner or later he has to end the war, which means that he may have to resign and in that context a conflict with Iran would help him, it would expand his mandate, but the compensation would be enormous. Israel's last attack was a failure. about the Iranian consulate, so Tan's response was lukewarm and almost performative, but what if Israel attacks Iranian cities and military targets? The answer is likely not to be Luka's if the Zionist regime takes any action against the Islamic Republic, whether on our soil or in places that belong to us.

In Syria or anywhere else our next operation will be much larger, so what options does Netanyahu have? We can think of three of them. The first is to call it Square. Israel's first strike killed senior Iranian commanders compared to Iran did not cause much damage, so Netanyahu can leave it at that, with a score of 1-1, the second option is to target Iranian proxies. Now we have already seen attacks on the hisbah in Lebanon. Israel can continue to make Iran have many assets. and military sites in the region, such as in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, Israel could choose to attack them; instead it is a relatively low risk and eventually option number three strikes inside Iran, this would likely lead to a cycle of retaliation, in the worst case even war will as well.

Benan Netanyahu takes a risk, logic says he won't, but in the last 6 months we haven't seen much demonstration of that logic, so we've also seen a lot of confusing decisions, some of which don't make strategic sense, so a lot depends. On Netanyahu's allies, first of all, how much pressure can the West put on him? Will they threaten to cut off military aid? The same with Israel's neighbors. A wider war would affect them all. It would disrupt oil trade across the Hormos Strait and Iran has always threatened. close it and this would give them the perfect excuse to do it about 30% 30 30% of the world's oil trade goes through this route if Iran closes it West Asia will suffer, that is reason enough for them to urge de-escalation I guess it's all a question of appetite and ambition Netanyahu has enough reasons to claim success, he eliminated top Iranian commanders, repelled a massive Iranian attack, plus reunited his Western allies for most people, that would be a victory, but Nanahu doesn't think like that, is not just focused on Israel.

Strategic objectives also focus on his political career, so this is a dangerous time. Israel's war cabinet is meeting to discuss the way forward. There are three members in this cabinet. One of them is Benny Gans. He is a former Defense Minister and is also a rival of Netanyahu Gans says that Israel will respond at the right time to the Iranian threat: we will build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran in the way and at the time that is right for us and, most importantly In the face of our enemies' desire to harm us, we will continue to unite and become stronger.

Most likely, there will be some kind of response. The only question is how far will it go? Let's look at the other side and that is Iran and its leader, Ayat Ali K. He is the Grand Ayatollah of Iran. a religious title that makes him the highest authority in theocratic Iran. He is the top leader of the country. 84 years old will turn 85 this week. He has been in power since 1989, making him one of the longest-serving leaders in West Asia. He has constitutional authority over the judiciary. Exercise the Revolutionary Guard and the state media so that the responsibility lies with this man and he is definitely the one who sanctioned the attack on Israel.

He authorized it last week. He had promised that Israel would be, quote, slapped and now he claims to have fulfilled it. the great joy of many in Iran look at this we were very happy with this action of the irgc and in fact we felt better after a long time this was a help and companionship with the oppressed people of Gaza and the West Bank this sadness and anger remained in the heart of all of us and we were always waiting for this Revenge to be carried out and for the Israelis to be punished for their brutality and we couldn't believe it when last night the news came that Banner with the missile You see, is in the Palestine Square of Thran.

He has a message in both Farsi and Hebrew. In Farsi or Persian he says that the next round will be more difficult. In Hebrew he says that your next mistake will be the end of your dual state message. And that's not a coincidence that explains why the people of Iran are delighted even though Israel seems relatively unscathed. Israel says the so-called slap was ineffective. They say that 99% of Iran's missiles and drones were shot down, but that is not what the people of Iran hear in the announced statement. the launch of missiles and drones at targets in occupied lands that successfully hit the targets, he says that they successfully hit the targets, the irgc, which is the core of

iran

's islamic revolutionary guard, issued a statement that they like a body Parallel military, its job is to defend Iran from outside and inside. threats and report to the Ayatollah now this body the irgc says it successfully hit targets in Israel and that's what the Iranian state media is reporting now, so people in Iran are being told that, quote, they have hit themselves heavy blows to the Israelis, especially to the air base in the Nev desert the Nevatim air base the base that was used to launch the airstrikes against the Iranian consulate in Syria and Israel admits that some missiles hit this base but they say they were minor damage to infrastructure, in fact the Israelis even freed them.

Later, these images supposedly show the base still in use, but of course, people in Iran see none of this. They saw the missiles heading towards Israel. Their news channels apparently quote the IRGC special forces as saying that Israel took heavy hits and then people in Iran think that aah K has given a forceful response to the Israelis and they were celebrating, which brings us to K's game plan He couldn't afford to look weak a few years ago, the Americans killed Kasim Suani last week, the Israelis killed Iranian generals. the regime in tan was already on the defensive at the national level the economy is in ruins its currency the real has H historically low inflation is touching 50% we have seen public protests in recent years in 2022 there was the anti-h Hijab protest where the people fought against the Iranian regime and was only put down by brute force given this backdrop and now the attack on their consulate in Syria K could not afford to appear weak, could not AFF for the people of Iran or for The Iranian representatives abroad think that the regime cannot stand up to Israel, so somehow last night's attack was K's only option, of course that doesn't make it right and will have its own set of consequences. .

K may have removed some internal embers of resentment, but he may have started a fire around the world, and speaking of this fire, let's return to the United States, where President Jo Biden is in a pickle. This is how Washington would view this attack. Iran. America's biggest problem in West Asia has openly attacked America's closest friend. In the region, Iran has crossed a red line that it has never dared to cross before and it happened under Biden's leadership. He should be sweating at the thought of having to explain this. When Biden learned of the attack, he rushed back to the White House.

I called Netanyahu and then he issued a statement and the last two lines of the statement are the ones that indicate that Biden said that his support for Israel was strong and that the United States will stand with the people of Israel and support their defense against these threats from Iran. . It sounds like the usual symbolic statement, but perhaps the word defense should be looked at closely because that's apparently as far as Biden is willing to go during the conference. He reportedly said that the Iranian attack had been thwarted and that Netanyahu should, quote, take victory.

This does not mean that Biden has washed his hands of the matter; He is planning a diplomatic offensive together with the G7 and the United States will of course back Israel at the UN Security Council meeting that has been convened today, but that doesn't really give the same impact as Iran firing missiles. . Biden will move his finger and apply sanctions. It doesn't make him sound too harsh, even though it may be the smartest course of action to avoid an all-out war in West Asia, but this defensive strategy leaves Biden open. to the political attacks at home which by the way have already started listen to this before we continue I want to say God bless the people of Israel, they are under attack right now, that is because we showed great weakness, this would not happen, the weakness that we have proven that it is incredible and that it would not happen if we were in office, you know that they know that everyone knows that Trump has made his move, he has blamed the attack on Biden's weakness and not just the attack last night.

Trump has blamed him for everything else. Joe Biden too, it wasn't just Putin, it was Putin and many other things that Biden got wrong about Putin. Ukraine would never have happened. Israel's attack on both October 7 and today would never have happened. It's impossible to accurately predict what might have happened, but Trump. It doesn't need to be exact, it just needs to undermine people's trust in Biden, which will probably be easy after this latest mess, it leaves Biden in an unenviable position of having to decide what's next, as much as Biden would like to remain On the defensive.

Not only is his call to make Netanyahu attacked, he of all people will want to respond. He has a tough guy reputation to maintain and could throw Biden under the bus to do so. US Senator Tim Kain says Biden distrusts Netanyahu and Biden. He apparently knows that he was, in quotes, played by the Israeli prime minister, this was during the first months of the Gaza war, which explains his change of stance. Remember that Biden flew to Israel when the October 7 attack took place, hugged Netanyahu as soon as he landed and said the United States would always stand by Israel, but that equation has changed in recent weeks, the civilian death toll was rising and Israel was threatening to attack Rafa in Gaza, the last remaining Gaza city where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are taking refuge, so Biden threatened that American aid to Israel would be conditional if Netanyahu did not do so. more to protect civilians.

It seemed that Biden had run out of patience. The change also suited his politics with American Muslim voters, so he seemed ready to reign in Ben Nanahu, but much has changed now. What will happen next? What will happen if Netanyahu attacks Iran? A new cycle of violence and a tit-for-tat scenario will begin until all of Western Asia is in flames. Will Joe Biden allow Israel? Israel is probably not America's closest ally. Biden will not be able to sit back and watch him abandon Israel or join it, and whatever happens next, the middle ground appears to be gone and this has put Biden in a terrible position.

I don't really have the freedom to choose his next move. Now let's look at the worst case scenario because that's what you do in situations like this. Let's look at all the possibilities hoping it doesn't come to the worst. What would be a full blown war between Iran and Israel is one of the most powerful armies in West Asia and Iran is one of the largest whose strength is superior. What kind of firepower do they have and who has the best chance of winning our war? The next report tells you that the drums of war are beating once again in West Asia.

Israel and Iran are in the midst of an escalating crisis. At the heart of this lies a crucial question, if the worst case scenario were to unfold, who would emerge victorious? Israel versus Iran, whose military power has an ad

vantage

on the surface, the numbers favor Iran. Iran has a huge population, at least compared to Israel. Iran is home to around 89 million people compared to Israel's population of around 10 million, so on paper it is an advantage. Iran, particularly with regard to the size of its army, theIranian Armed Forces are among the largest in Western Asia, with at least 580,000 active duty personnel and 200,000 trained reserve personnel.

How big is Israel's army? It has around 170,000 active troops and 465,000 reservists, so Iran's military's active personnel is more than triple that of Israel. It also has a larger Navy, more tanks and armored vehicles, and greater access to fuel. So far Iran seems to have the advantage, but there is a problem. Raw data alone doesn't tell the whole story. Quantitative factors play a role, yes, but so do qualitative ones, such as training and the advancement of technology, and the nation that wins here is the one with the most money, which is Israel. Iran has a GDP of $413 billion, while Israel's GDP amounts to $539 billion this year. affects their respective military budgets, Iran's is reportedly $10 billion, while Israel has a military budget of $24.4 billion, which is almost 2.5 times larger, but the biggest advantage What Israel has is that its army is backed by the United States.

The United States provides Israel with an annual budget of $3.8 billion. military assistance, this has allowed Israel to have more advanced weaponry with superior force preparation, making it one of the most powerful armies in Western Asia. Let's see how this plays out on land, water and air in terms of tank strength, like the zulfiker series and the karar MPT that Iran builds. Their own tanks are generally based on obsolete designs, then there are the T-72, T-54 and T-55 which are Iranian copies and are considered inferior to Israeli defense tanks such as the Marava Mark 4 which is one of the best armored tanks in the world. game now let's look at the Navy Iran's Navy is larger than Israel's but not as robust Israel's Navy has access to American and European suppliers and their advanced missiles and ships now, when it comes to air power, contrary to the numbers Trend Israel's force is larger than Iran's Its arsenal includes 612 aircraft compared to Iran's 551.

Its main combat force consists of at least 66 F-15s, 175 F16s and 27 F35 stealth fighters. It is also considered one of the best in the world. It has around 63 F4 and 26 F14 compared to Iran's Air Arsenal. It is believed to be aging rapidly, so Israel has superior quality, which is why Iran is using another tactic on the battlefield, deploying weapons in large quantities. Iran has a substantial inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles. They are capable of attacking targets about 2,000 kilometers away. This puts Israel within range and during the weekend attack, Tan launched dozens of explosive-laden drones, these are the Pride of Iran, they are unmanned aerial vehicles believed to be heads of Shah, which means witness In Farsi, these are long-range drones that have been called Tan's AK-47 because they are cheap, mass-produced and.

Furthermore, Iran is not without allies, one of its most important being the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, according to Israeli intelligence. Hezbollah's arsenal contains more than 70,000 rockets and missiles, including long-range and precision-guided missiles, but, again, conventional forces are not the only ones that can be used on a battlefield. Israel is believed to possess the ability to launch nuclear attacks from land, air and sea. Israel has never openly confirmed or denied its possession of new nuclear weapons, so Iran has the numbers. Israel has the technology, while we cannot predict a clear winner if this conflict escalates further, there is no doubt about who will be the biggest loser, the rest of the region and its millions of inhabitants and where India appears in this conflict in the middle, again, both Israel and Iran are very important partners for India. and has all kinds of investments, both political and economic, so choosing a side is practically impossible and the New Delhi statement reflects this, let me quote what the Indian statement says: we are seriously concerned about the escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran, we call for an immediate exercise of restraint to reduce violence and return to the path of diplomacy, that is what India's statement says, no blame game, no criticism, no taking sides, India is basically asking both countries to de-escalate and we will get to the strategic considerations in a moment, but First, India has a more immediate concern.

On Saturday, Iran captured a ship near the Hormos straight, it is called the MSC Aries. Reports say the ship is linked to an Israeli businessman, so Iran confiscated it. Around 25 people are on board the ship, 17 of them are Indian. therefore, releasing them is a high priority. Indian officials have apparently reached out to Iran and are trying to free the sailors, which brings us to the broader question of how India will navigate this conflict if it is short, there is not much to do. But what happens if Israel strikes back? What if things escalate into a bigger conflict?

So India faces some difficult decisions. Let's look at three key factors. Business relationships. Political relations and strategic relations. It begins with trade with India. Trade with Israel is around $7.5 billion. What about India? Trade with Iran is around $2.5 billion, but there is a key difference here: Iran is sanctioned by Western countries, so India buys very little oil from Iran before the sanctions, the trade was much larger, around $13,000. million dollars in 2015. Let's see what this trade with Israel consists of. sells a lot of military equipment to India, in fact New Delhi is Israel's main buyer, at the same time Iran is an oil giant, if sanctions are lifted, energy trade can flourish again, so oil and arms are two very important items that India buys from these two. countries, which brings us to the second factor: political relations.

Prime Minister Modi has invested a lot in his relationship with Israel, in fact he eliminated it until then. India could not separate Israel and Palestine. Both relations were internal, but Modi decided to separate them in 2017. to Israel and since then Israel has become a key partner of India with Iran it has been a different trajectory there are cultural and linguistic ties long-standing political exchanges and even a shared history There have been some uncomfortable statements and comments, especially on Kashmir, but the relationship has largely remained stable and that brings us to the final factor: strategic relations. India sees Israel as a gateway to Europe last year at the G20 Summit.

India announced a new economic corridor that would link India with Europe through Israel. Also, both countries are part of a political group called i2u2 India Israel the USA and the United Arab Emirates, therefore i2u2 is also called the West Asia Squad now with Iran India has other shared interests to start Afghanistan both India like Iran they support the rights of Afghan minorities they also oppose the terrorist camps in Afghanistan and Like Israel, India sees Iran as a gateway not to Europe but to Central Asia. New Delhi is building a trade terminal in the southeast at Chabahar port.

It is India's first overseas port investment and is worth almost $85 million. The plan is to use chabahar to access Afghanistan and Central Asia this way India can make a move towards Pakistan, in short both countries are very important for India, there is a lot of money and strategic depth at stake so taking sides is not It will be easy for New Delhi. If fighting intensifies, India will also have to think about its citizens. There are 18,000 Indians living in Israel and between 5,000 and 10,000 Indians in Iran. If you add the Gulf region, many more, up to 9 million Indians live in this region and not.

Forget about energy trade - around 4,40% of India's oil comes from West Asia plus 70% of its gas, so a wider war would be a political and economic nightmare for India, so New Delhi is asked to de-escalate. India has acted recently, especially in Ukraine, but if this war drags on, it could be India's toughest challenge yet. In the last two years our world has seen major wars in 2022, it started with the war between Russia and Ukraine in 2023, that was last year. Hamas terrorists attacked Israel and Israel began a military operation in Gaza that has not yet ended. Now Israel and Iran are involved in a direct confrontation.

These conflicts impact not only the countries involved but the entire world. They damage the global economy and alter the supply chains it is not surprising that today's events have caused more uncertainty: how will Iran's attack affect oil prices? Will global markets be affected? What about disruptions to travel and trade? Our next report tells you everything you need to know. Iran's attack on Israel may reshape regional dynamics, but in the immediate future there will be an escalation of tensions. In Western Asia, it threatens an already fragile global economy. Oil, the region's most important export, remains vulnerable. Iran's attack could cause a rise in prices.

The oil market is volatile. The price of a barrel is increasingly approaching $100 If there is a long-term interruption in supplies, the daily supply of crude oil could be reduced by up to 8 million barrels per day. How would the shortage affect the price? The cost of a barrel of oil could skyrocket to $140. This is worrying news for countries like India. India imports 85% of its crude oil needs since the end of March, prices have risen to a 4-month high, putting pressure on the margins of Indian manufacturers, which reduced fuel prices just last month, if prices global markets do not stabilize soon, sustaining lower prices may be a solution.

Defiant investors in the stock market are also cautious on Sunday West Asian markets fell after the Iranian attacks Stocks in Saudi Arabia Qatar and Israel fell losses were relatively minor US markets also under pressure on Friday The S&P 500 closed in the red Investors blamed geopolitical tensions as fears of a broader war could make them more nervous. The cryptocurrency also witnessed wild fluctuations when Iran attacked Israel. Bitcoin fell sharply by 9%, however, the token recovered later in the day, but if Israel steps up, greater losses could be expected, in that case aviation. The sector may face the most significant repercussions as several airlines have canceled flights or diverted their routes, this includes names such as Quantas Airways Singapore Airlines Launches Kuwait Airways and Swiss International India's largest airlines are forced to take action so that India Vistara and Indigo are forced to take action.

They suspended their flights to tan, they are also avoiding Iranian airspace, so if you have a flight scheduled soon, it may take longer to reach your destination or worse, your flight may be canceled completely, but it is not a crisis for all investors. Gold is cheering global uncertainty has sparked a surge in gold purchases the yellow metal has gained 133% and has already briefly hit a record price of $2,400 per ounce, however the fighting in West Asia will give little comfort to Economists and the IMF are worried. On this year's outlook, the scars of pandemics are still with us, the global production loss since 2020 amounts to around $33.3 trillion and the cost falls disproportionately on the most vulnerable countries and we see growing divergence within and between groups of countries since 20120 as our world has faced a series of crises from the pandemic to the many wars for the well-being of the global economy, it is essential that cooler heads prevail.

Now let's zoom in a little bit and take a closer look at the region in direct shooting range, the other big ones. players in West Asia and I must say here that this region has never been a beacon of stability, but last night's attack turns it into a powder keg even more, the Iranian missiles and drones flew over several countries before reaching Israel, in addition the representatives of Iran joined the attack I told you about them as if the hisbah were a group based in Lebanon and Lebanon is the number one actor. He has always been caught up in Israel's conflicts.

In fact, Israel had occupied the southern part of Lebanon from 1985 to 2000 for almost 15 years, so if Iran's fight against Israel intensifies. Lebanon is likely to get caught up in the war and side with Iran. Next we have Syria, the ownersofficials of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights region and the number two major player. Syria is another country close to Iran, their president is Bashar Alassad and he is still in power only thanks to Thean, they helped him win a civil war, they are also armed with Iranian backed groups in Syria, like smaller versions of the hisbah , so if it comes down to it, Syria will side with Iran, then there is main player number three, Iraq and This is a bit of a unique case, on the one hand, Iraq fought a huge war against Iran, the first War of the Gulf in the 1980s, but the countries have since united.

Iraq's prime minister is even considered pro-Iran. His way to the top. the work was helped by pro-Iranian political parties Iran Iraq in fact also has an Iraq many Iranian backed militias on its soil are in Iraq so in the event of a war even if Iraq is left out the government is left out These militias will join Iran and speaking of Iranian proxies, there are also some Houthis in Yemen. The group not only attacks ships in the Red Sea, but is also able to reach Israel thanks to the Iranian-made drones that the huis have and that makes Yemen the number four actor. so we have Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, directly or indirectly, these countries will be on Iran's side, but they are not the only ones who have skin in the game.

We also have the Arab states we'll start with, with Israel's neighbor Jordan the number five major player. Jordan is home to American military bases and is also home to millions of Palestinians. Jordan is just across the border from Israel, so it is where many Palestinian refugees took refuge after their displacement during the creation of Israel. Millions still live there and Jordan doesn't want any more. so he's always trying to reduce tensions, he's at the forefront of peace talks and he also helped shoot down Iranian weapons last night. Jordan wants a return to peace and calm and an end to the influx of refugees, which brings us to actor number six, the leader. of the Arab and Muslim world and that is Saudi Arabia.

Iran and Saudi Arabia had been rivals for decades, the two power centers in West Asia, but they buried the hatchet last year, normalizing ties. Riyadh would not want to renew hostility, so expect the kingdom to try. and calm things down, in fact, look at Saudi Arabia's statement: it has called on all parties to exercise maximum restraint and spare the region and its people the dangers of war. They are basically telling everyone to calm down and other Arab states are likely to follow suit. Riyadh's leadership and considering its ties to the US, Arab pressure may be key to keeping the peace, making Saudi Arabia the most important regional player to watch at the moment after regional players.

Let's return to the protagonist Israel and Iran, why are they at war? Why have they done it? been fighting proxy battles for decades, how did they go from close allies to archrivals? That is until the 1970s. Iran and Israel were close allies. Our next report tells you what changed and why the year was 1948. Israel was created. Türkiye became the first Muslim country. recognize the Jewish state, but can you guess who came second, surprisingly, Iran, which was home to the largest Jewish community in West Asia at the time? Relations between Iran and Israel were anything but hostile; in fact, the two shared close ties under which they had become allies. the last shah Muhammad Resa pavi Israel reportedly imported 40% of its oil from Iran in exchange for agricultural products, weapons and technology, so how did the two nations go from being allies to enemies?

The change occurred in 1979, this was the year of the Islamic Revolution. The revolution when Iran overthrew the Shah a new Islamic Republic of Iran was born, this quickly ended the friendship between the two states. The Ayatollah or the supreme leaders took charge of Iran and all of them considered Israel as the number one enemy and also the illegal occupiers of Jerusalem. After the 1979 Revolution, all ties with Israel were cut. Citizens could no longer travel there. Flight routes were cancelled. The Israeli Embassy became the Palestinian Embassy. In turn, Israel refused to recognize the new Islamic Republic and this was just the beginning of decades.

The two nations have sought to increase their influence across the region as their ambitions collided. Their enmity grew. Iran now supports groups that see Israel as a major enemy. These armed groups and militias are spread throughout Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. The most important of them is Hezbollah. which is backed by the elite core of Iran's Islamic revolutionary guard, Israel has returned the favor, so to speak, by backing groups that oppose Iran and designating many of them as terrorist organizations such as the mujahideen, a organization based in Europe, and Kurdish armed groups in Iraqi Kurdistan, the two nations have waged proxy wars for decades and have now also carried out a long series of attacks on each other.

Furthermore, this Shadow War has developed both inside and outside its territories, for example, Israel has promised never to allow Iran to develop a nuclear bomb. The Tahan nuclear program has seen a series of attacks. Israel has never accepted responsibility for these attacks, while Iran has also attacked various Israeli interests, for example in 2012 a series of attacks were launched against Israeli targets in Georgia, India and Thailand. Israel accused Tahan, but Iran denied the charges, to no one's surprise, and again in 2021, an Israeli-owned transport vehicle was hit by an explosion. sailing off the coast of Oman was again blamed, but denied any involvement.

Iran and Israel went from being allies to sworn enemies and now, for the first time, almost after half a century of being fors, Iran has directly attacked Israel, the path towards reconciliation has never seemed father and with this we end the special edition of Vantage, we will continue to track all the updates from Israel, Iran and around the world, so make sure to follow the first post, keep watching, see you tomorrow. Iran has launched a live. attack from Iranian soil towards the state of Israel