Boris Johnson: By-election would cause 'serious problems' for Conservative Party - Former Tory MP

Well, there's a lot to talk about with the

conservative

dock and the pollster. Lord, hey, what's up with this morning? Good morning, my lord, it is always a pleasure to see you. Let's address that, first of all, a very, very rich billionaire prime minister, what effect does that have at the polls? everyone knows that he is a rich man who married well, has huge income but he has revealed it and people have to judge him on that basis but no surprise that he is a rich man, what about the

former

prime minister in front to the Privileges committee yesterday, what does that do to Tory popularity?

I think it muddies the waters, there is no doubt that Rishi Sunak is trying to convey a clear message of competence and managerial experience as Prime Minister and every time this topic comes up again people are reminded of the chaos that was in the Conservative

party

last year, what if we fast forward and potentially there is a by-

election

? What kind of

problems

could that

cause

conservative

s in the polls? Oh, it

would

cause

serious

problems

in the

party

. He doesn't want to buy the

election

s. I suppose if there were a by-election, according to the current polls, we

would

certainly lose the constituency and therefore it is something that is there, but we cannot prejudge what the committee will decide how popular.

Is Boris Johnson still among the bases? I think his support is waning and yesterday's vote in terms of the Northern Ireland national protocol is fine, yes, but his support is waning, his impact on the party is waning the longer Rishi Sunak has been prime minister. um, if he was parachuted into another suit, he might miss Oxbridge. There are plenty of seats that would potentially put him in Henley, where he previously stood. What impact would that have on the polls? I don't think he wanted to do that. Be honest, yes, because can you imagine Boris as leader of the opposition that if he loses that seat and the Conservative party loses the general election, I mean the by-election and the name runs in the general election, but no I don't think That is in their nature.

I don't think he wants to be parachuted somewhere else with a

serious

prospect and admittedly the polls may be improving, but they're not improving that much right now. to potentially be leader of the opposition and that's not something Boris wanted to do or was good at. I don't think he said the polls are improving, yes there has been a progressive upward slope and it has also been demonstrated in the Council by-elections. but the conservative party is not out of the woods yet, so they are improving from a very, very difficult position, what do they need to do?

We looked at the interest rate figures, not the interest rates, yesterday's inflation figures were expected to be in one The figures for the first time in a long time were not, they were not and I think the important impact of That's you identified the impact on people paying mortgages, but also, as far as I'm concerned, it's a very clear indication that inflation is going to take longer than we expected and that delays the elections. Now it's pretty clear to me that it will be in the fall of 2024. So you're saying that we won't see and the next general election, unless I mean, obviously, a week of a long time in politics, until someone wants them until October 2020 Absolutely October, November 2024, the inflation numbers, as far as I'm concerned, made it absolutely clear that some people were talking.

We talked about that before, but I think everything indicates that inflation and therefore interest rates and everything that comes with that means a very clear message that you can plan for the fall elections of 2024. What is the atmosphere in the House of Commons across the street on both sides? I am sure you have friends, the mood has changed, there is no doubt that the atmosphere following the budget, the Northern Ireland protocol vote etc. has changed. You could talk to Conservative MPs. If they were going to lose, I can lose. my seat is a labor disaster, we're practically neck to neck, the atmosphere has changed, there's a degree of uncertainty and a Liberal Democrat told me they'd actually put money on no overall majority, uh, just a few days ago.

That's a bit, um, I think it's risky still, uh, Labor is probably expected to win the next election, but I think the prospects for that are becoming less certain now that you've mentioned the Ireland protocol vote. North, it was not in general. protocol Guerra said oh, that the Windsor, I forget what all these things are called, the winter frame, it wasn't in that, it was just one particular aspect, the Stormont break is what it was called and that's what the House of the Commons. Yesterday was a real cakewalk for the Prime Minister, but he easily won that vote, but what caught my attention is that two previous Prime Ministers voted against it.

It's very surprising, but the biggest political impact was how small the Rebellion actually was, Boris and his trusts were in a very small group of people. Probably the key figure was around 40 in terms of potential rebels because if the figure had been at that level you could say that the Prime Minister had to rely on workers and lively Democratic support and it doesn't have to be half that. of that figure and the six per cent of Conservative MPs who rebelled by voting against that is a very small number of the Conservative party in Parliament. Another function of Rishi Sunak's role as Prime Minister is that they are rediscovering unity and are actually quite enjoying it.

I was talking to an MP last night and he actually used the phrase that he was happy to finally come to work and that they would use that rediscovery of unity, not relegation after what is what seven eight nine years of arguing. brexit arguing about leadership arguing about everything you shouldn't get too comfortable with although you should watch the dup break out no one should feel comfortable in politics um a day let alone a week is a long time so don't get too comfortable in no time. period, it's okay and don't run to the subway, my Lord, because we can see what's happening.

Your leg is in a brace. Thank you. It's good to talk to you. Thank you. Thank you.