Russland: Wie tickt Wladimir Putin? | DER SPIEGEL

until they stop being so; That is exactly the disadvantage of the lack of transparency of this system, that we do not know what happens inside and outside. There are a number of factors that, if they act together, can certainly lead to this regime becoming unstable, that is, the worsening of the economic crisis, new military failures in Ukraine, that is, the weakening of the Russian armed forces, the loss of territory, etc. In this sense, I am quite cautious, I think that what is important for political change is that something changes at the level of the elites, that the elites separate themselves from the center of power and I consider the stabilization of the LED in the sense of what you just said Wolfgang Eichwede.

It is very likely and that will happen, then exactly these Gregorian actors come into play, who compete with each other in various security services, etc. When we hear publicly how dangerous Vladimir Putin is today, I have to endure criticism from his party. the SPD, that in dealing with Vladimir Putin in the past we were naive, too friendly, too cuddly, so there is a clear signal from our party that we are working on what went wrong, on what we can do better and, therefore Of course, also in that we look the other way, we also want to act and blame our culprits and, since we can also look forward to a certain extent and make sure that these mistakes are not repeated again, looking back from a current perspective is Of course, very easy.

To analyze where the mistakes were made, I think if we put ourselves back in the real situation. If we had not seen or could not have seen much of what we know today, that was the SPD because it was too blind, too tender. , it was too blind, too tender, I'm sorry if I didn't do it, of course, but really Putin's system was not recognized, signals were cited in the Bundestag speech that had a very strong impact on German public opinion and deep in German politics there were extraordinary expectations that change could be achieved there through the intensification of trade.

We overlook the fact that, in parallel with the intensification in the 10 years, that is, from 2000 to 2010, 12 economic relations, repression in Russia increased. selectively but very harshly from the information channels, so we did not see the internal development in this country and I think we made enormous mistakes. I think who you're thinking about, especially when you say you're too naive to hug, I think. Starting with Gerhard Schröder, of course, it is also about Angela Merkel, who at first I had the impression that she had a critical relationship with Putin. This impression has become a little blurry for me. over time, but one day we followed it and then I really regret it 2 I just have to say that, I'm not saying this in retrospect, but there were many who warned and many who knew this country and this power structure who said it was a mistake, you two were there after the occupation of Crimea.

Have they generated or supported a psychology on the Russian side that said we can do almost anything, the West will still be nice, so ultimately kind of, I don't know? , it was consciously relaxed and perhaps it took place, of course, a lot has already changed and if you analyze German policy in Russia and Eastern Europe over the last 20 years, you can see, of course, the different stages that took place in Putin's speech. The 2007 Munich Security Conference was a shock to many Germans in three decision-making areas: the Russo-Georgian war of 2008 and then the annexation of Crimea and the start of the war on the Don, which ultimately led to the start of the war.

Russian. war against Ukraine in 2014, all of that had an impact and yet there were enormously strong path dependencies, so, um, attitudes that simply led to, especially in the area of ​​economic policy, this course was not willing to deviate from the course that had been taken and that was a big problem because it simply led to people being blinded to the internal political developments in Russia and also to the increasingly aggressive Russian foreign policy. Well, I mean, we've both been in this business for quite some time, including political councils, it really wasn't easy to come up with different assessments and recommendations regarding the question of what's next in Russia.

We have an interesting graph that really surprised me, let's take a look at it. Shows Vladimir Putin's approval ratings among the Russian population, from 2000 to the present. Particularly interesting is the curve at the end, which also covers the war period and approval ratings have declined, but they have declined. They have even increased, despite the deterioration of the economic situation. How is this explained? Well, people have become quieter and have protested against Putin for fear of repression, the protests we saw at the beginning in Moscow and St. Petersburg. They were brutally massacred. I believe this is one of the reasons why critical voices are no longer heard in Russia and that, ultimately, it leads to criticism not being perceived and, like politics and narratives, not being questioned from a position of civil society. , let's talk about it in more detail in a moment.

This week there will not only be a powerhouse speech on the state of the nation, but also a huge celebration at Moscow's Olympic Stadium just in time for the anniversary of the war, where. Tens of thousands of people are expected, you believe. These people come there voluntarily or are pressured to do so. I don't know, I can't answer that for you, but honestly I'm not that into it right now, but. Knowing Putin's politics, I know that both things are possible. You can't be sure that the announcement of partial mobilization would hurt Putin politically, how much are you surprised by the numbers we saw here in the survey?

So for a while, when? During the partial mobilization, it seemed that there was reluctance in society, I myself must also say that I hoped that with the increasing number of deaths in the war, this would provoke reactions not only among the minorities in Russia, who were disproportionately affected, but they also raise questions in Russian society as a whole. It seems that these numbers are currently being seen. That shows that it seems to be controlled at this time, you have to keep in mind that many of these surveys are done. They are done over the phone and that means that the phone number you dial is known to everyone who can check the answers, so you always have to be careful.

I would like to make a very brief general comment. He knew the old Soviet society relatively well. I didn't get the impression that there was consent for the system, but rather that they were talking and thinking something else. In a sense they were gaming the system. I was in an institute and I spoke to people I spoke to in a very critical way. and I quoted what you had written and then one of my interlocutors, Wolfgang, told me that he had to forget everything we wrote, we just had to write it down and he took me to a room where there was a closet behind the closet. of my scripts, these are all the forces that we are not allowed to publish, so there was, so to speak, doublethink in this old society, if this doublethink exists in today's Russian society, it is doubtful that a certain Mobilization It was achieved and this mobilization can only be interrupted by failures in the war and, if necessary, by a crack in the leadership.

Public lady, in this context, it is certainly interesting how the Germans, that is, the Russians living in Germany, look at Vladimir Putin and this war, as they themselves said about his personal situation. The environment of Russian origin, quote, some were hostile for no reason after the start of this war, especially since they have a Russian-speaking background. That's dramatic because. Putin uses something like that, how does he use it? Permanent people are massively discriminated against here: this is a document that Putin is playing with to divide our society and at the same time, of course, there are experiences of discrimination of people than us.

We have to take it seriously and I think if we keep our society together we want to make that clear. We have to take seriously what is happening, that is, people's experience of discrimination, and see how we can further influence our structures so that people can live in our society without discrimination and at the same time make it clear that This is also, of course, a narrative around the division to operate and also reveal how propaganda works on Russian television, we have also prepared a small excerpt that we are now listening to. to propaganda chief Vladimir, who has now become famous on Twitter, with a very specific threat to the Germans, who really understand the consequences this war will have.

At the beginning of World War II, all our planes had already reached Berlin and now we have some other things that are much more effective. We can do all kinds of things. The Germans learn the lesson of history. The planes arrive in Berlin, but also with other weapons, you are probably thinking about nuclear weapons. his argument to develop images of the enemy and with a view to this war uses the German image of the enemy in the story, however he describes the leaders in kyiv as Nazis, which is his allusion to World War II and the war, um , that was supposed to be his self-affirmation towards Hitler and he proved the fact that German tanks are now being delivered, he started very pathetically in his speech at Stalingrad or Volvocard or mentioned that it is incredible, he told me it was Jattner.

It's unbelievable again that German tanks are fighting against Russia so he tried to use this narrative and by doing so he also gives way to his propagandists and do you think this gets trapped in this narrative? Well, does it play on the fears that people really have when they use? The information also comes from certain directions, so it became very strong that in Germany nothing would work anymore, there is the threat of hunger, the third world war, the dead, these are the fears that people really have and if they consume something like this. permanently as information, it reinforces these fears and that creates divisions in our society and that is the objective that Putin pursues, he wants division, he wants our society and our political system to stabilize and he works with all the instruments and all the narratives like the ones we have seen now and the Russian citizen who sees that propaganda on television, the majority knows that this is state propaganda or has lost the idea, I think, both and that is the same as in society in general and in which we have the diffusion of propaganda narratives right in the center of the German Bundestag, where there are members of parliament and these narratives are spread by certain parties.

That's why I think this is now thought of too narrowly with respect to the Russian-speaking peoples here. Of course, there are those who believe that and are also in certain information bubbles. Is it possible that they are actually on Putin's side and there are those who are so enlightened and also consume other media and information that they don't believe in that? serious opposition in Russia: we had it shortly after the start of the war. There were also photographs of people who spontaneously took to the streets to demonstrate what the war was like. Not many, but in many places it seems that there is nothing left.

There has been no serious opposition in Russia for a long time and at the latest Alexina Valny was arrested in January 2021 and is in custody. Since then, sentenced to long term. Since then, at the latest, the last really serious opposition organization or force in Russia has been paralyzed. Yes, we have these so-called system oppositions, they are parties that are in the dark. They formally assume an opposition function but in reality they simply support the regime. Today everyone supports the so-called liberal Democratic Party, which is simply a hyper-nationalist far-right party and we have a non-parliamentary and non-systemic opposition that has been systematically marginalized and repressed over a period of 15 to 20 years and is now largely in prison or has been expelled from the country.

Now a spring offensive of the Russian army is supposedly underway, in which you have already been. Mr. Eichwede, what do you think is the goal of this offensive and what condition is the Russian army in and how low is the morale of the Russian soldiers? I think the Russian army is still in bad condition and I think morale. Not good, that is now the accepted measure from the outside. I repeatedly spoke with soldiers in the last years of Russia, that is, in the 90s. The condition of the Russian troops is simply bad and I cannot imagine it in the long term. runs Sabine Fischer and I also cannot imagine that in the long term if one defeat after another is repeated or there are no successes, this will not have an additional effect on morale or I trust that, so to speak, both within the Russian troops and within Russian society, we must see that there are very small groups or old groups that still continue their activities.

I constantly receive messages from Memorial, the society that has been banned as a human right and is now doing the tour. these days again around Moscow and showing where the houses where people lived arethat they were murdered by Stalin or that they were spied on, and that is not only Moscow, but also a large part of the country, it is still like that, so there are, so To speak, here there are small and totally honest groups that risk many things. I have several WhatsApp messages after the war started, I only get two words. I'm ashamed. I think society can also change in a relatively short period of time if political structures change or if there are cracks in leadership, I can also imagine that there will be changes in Russian society and that awakening that we have experienced.

I can't foresee 70 years in the second half and I have experienced so many different Russian societies in my scientific life that I still have some hope that if the political constellations have to change, they will. If the crimes occurred so that there could be movement again in Russian society, in the end we would find ourselves with what is always most difficult: looking forward, Ms. Fischer's forecast is that Vladimir Putin will remain President of Russia in two years and how big will Ukraine be? It all depends on the course of the war, I can't say it in advance, it depends on the course of the war and therefore also largely depends on Western policy. and on the support that will allow Ukraine's best to progress in this war, if Ukraine asserts itself and the Russian military continues to respond, then it is quite possible that Russia will change in the sense that we have already discussed whether it should not.

If Russia, if Putin could even make progress on his war goals, as he has done so far, then we will certainly have presidential elections in Russia next year within two years, it is already clear that it will be presented, so all of these steps that we have seen now, even in the last week and today, are steps in this direction and then we will do it in two. This regime has continued for years, of course, which gives me hope that we have many actors here in civil society who are trying to educate, who are trying to work so that the terrible training campaign with the goal of stabilizing our society cannot succeed. effect.

The Federal Ministry of the Interior also supports many projects and I believe that we, like our society, can remain united if we once again strengthen the meetings and participation of civil society at the smaller municipal and local levels and that the discussions take place out there and people get together to exchange ideas so that we can once again reach those we may not be able to reach now and I want to do everything possible so that Putin does not succeed in stabilizing and strengthening our democracy. Now I have set myself the task of believing in a Russia like him without Vladimir Putin in the foreseeable future.

What is decisive is a hardening of perspectives. I have experienced so many Russias. This Russia will also change and this one also has the possibility of changing, but it will take a long time and we will have to prepare for a long period of The confrontation here from the Western side is very long, I do not think it will give results in two or three years and that is the problem I have had in many discussions with colleagues and friends here. In Germany there is peace, peace. does not ask for weapons, even those who do not supply them are guilty because they deprive those who are raped of the opportunity to defend themselves.

There is no way out here because I am for peace and therefore I can keep a clear conscience, we must do it. Sabine in quotes Sabine Fischer We have to know that if this wins, or even partially, in five years we will have a Europe even more dangerous than the one we have today, says someone who knew Vladimir Putin from the beginning and has dealt with him a lot. Thank you. I thank all three of you for the discussion, for the ideas you gave us about the situation in Russia. Of course, we all hope that some of today's gloomy forecasts will not come true.

Thank you very much, dear viewers, for. your interest We will be back soon with a great conversation for you. Stay cheerful as best you can and we'll see you soon.