The unspoken objective of Ukraine's counter offensive

They have probably been hearing for some time that the Ukrainian spring

counter

offensive

is on the way and it is possible that he can turn everything around in my garden well. I have seen daffodils give way to tulips which have now given way to lupins, we should Generally, it is a sign that spring is in its advanced stage and about to give way to the joys of summer, which would suggest that the spring

counter

offensive

It should already be ready to go and, indeed, it seems to be from what signals we can deduce From the information and indeed from the flows of misinformation, we try to make sense of what is becoming increasingly evident: how much is at stake for what will happen in the coming months and we have seen evidence of this with Ukrainian President Zielinski. going on a tour in recent weeks visiting his key allies to get the additional short-term support he will need to make it possible to launch a counteroffensive knowing that munitions and hardware are arriving in a steady stream to where they are needed, he knows there is that Ukraine's allies must believe that Ukraine can win the war on the battlefield and that therefore their support is worth continuing and there is a deadline for all of that, somewhat aligned with in the upcoming US presidential election, it is not unreasonable to assume that in the event of a second Trump term in the White House or perhaps even a DeSantis term, the effect would be to lose the support of the United States.

United or at least their unconditional support, so, although Putin could use hope for a long and protracted War of Attrition, they cannot imagine it. This is how it seems to the Ukrainians. The open question is whether the counteroffensive has already started because it is in no way obligatory for Ukraine to suddenly raise a flag and say here we go. Is it necessary to pay attention now? Economists analyzed satellite data this week and said the evidence on the ground was that Ukraine had started to warm in the past two weeks. During that time, 907 fires likely related to the war have been observed.

Ukrainian territory controlled by Russia, which is more than four times the number seen in the previous fortnight and crosses the front line from Kharkiv to Kirsten and with apparent attacks on the rear of Russian forces also the last time this was seen according to the economist, it was in the run-up to Ukraine's surge in the South that took place last fall. That is not to say that the main phase has begun, but so far there is no evidence of a Ukrainian breakthrough, but the activity is consistent with laying the groundwork. For that to happen, probe the Russian lines for weaknesses that affect command and logistics posts to degrade their response capacity, which of course also occurs when another notable event was recorded: the attack on Belgarode, a raid on a Russian region bordering Ukraine, exactly the kind of What makes Ukraine's Belgarod allies quite nervous led the Biden administration to once again distance itself from such tactics, saying that they do not encourage attacks on Russian soil, they certainly do not want that such attacks would be carried out using any American-made equipment, but it is also the kind of Something that is practically inevitable: if you invade an immediate neighbor, you will not be able to avoid all the consequences on your own territory, and in any case it is inevitable because Any scenario in which the conflict ends in Ukraine's favor increasingly depends on a specific chaotic process, namely the collapse of order within Russia, both short-term Ukrainian success on the battlefield and bold attacks. on Russia's own territory, make that outcome more likely.

The point is that whatever Russia's strengths or weaknesses are on the battlefield, it would be surprising. If the situation at the heart of power in Moscow were not considerably more fragile now than it has been for many years, there would be an increasingly public confrontation of slander between different factions, some of which in flagrant disrespect towards Putin and those around him, which would be a symptom of a struggle. that is already taking place waiting for the post-putin era, it does not mean that people necessarily expect that to come tomorrow, but you know that Putin is over 70 years old and currently he is not being very effective in the future, that post-pout scenario is clearly going to come into play and, given the deep divisions between the different groups, everyone sees that process as life or death for them.

Radio Free Europe asked Russian investigative journalist Roman Anin what each group was trying to achieve and he said the following: they want to save their lives, their property, the lives of their relatives, they understand that after Russia loses the war, because between them Nobody believes in victory anymore, they understand that it will be the starting point of this battle for the throne and who will lose the throne. The battle will lose everything, so it matters who the people in contention are. Which is likely to happen if either of them succeeds. Realistically, there appear to be loose groups with different agendas and degrees of influence that could be successful.

It goes for the people around Putin, currently the current elite. if you will, there is a wilder, wilder group made up of people like Wagner's pregosianin groups and then there is a third group of nationalists who want to eliminate the incompetent elites but also desperately want to win the war, yes, sorry, the Navoni's liberal-minded opposition does not. In any of these scenarios, I report that it seems not to be how I would like it to be, and Annie makes the case in her interview. The best outcome would be for Putin to be replaced by one of the currently existing elites, Putin's friends, now these.

There are no more enlightened leaders in waiting, they have prospered during Putin's retirement by accepting all the corruption and all the criminal activities, but the people respond to incentives and it could be said that this group would benefit from ending the war and providing security guarantees. to Ukraine in exchange for similar from the West and the cancellation of sanctions, it is almost certain that the West is tired enough of a war to accept it wholeheartedly if offered by a post-Putin leadership and that it would end up being the best outcome for Russia and for the world. that those elites are bitterly divided among themselves, so one thing they don't present is an obvious successor, what they see are competing claims, no compromise or favoritism from Putin himself, and real destructiveness potentially that will tear the group apart, so people like the director of the National Guard.

Victor Zolotov, who was close to Putin for some years, is at enmity with FSB director Alexander Bortnikov, they hate each other they are unlikely to agree on a successor, whoever wins, the other can expect to lose all his assets, such life if in that position and you see the current leader gradually losing power, how long are you going to wait knowing that if events catch you on the defensive, that may well be the end of you and the other groups are showing that, no matter what Come on, Putin? In fact, it is bleeding power, which is why the increasingly loud and combative public statements of Yevgeny Pregokhin, the leader of the Wagner group, who is possibly the only Russian figure who could be said to have had a good war, has been attacking aggressively at Putin's defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, among others, equally aggressively attacking the Chechen chief. and Putin's ally ramzan kadarov, and even in an increasingly transparent manner, although with a rather subtle disguise, attacking Putin himself until now in a country where one wrong word can land you in jail, he has been able to do so with impunity, in fact, he even hinted in a recent video where he announced that the Wagner group would be leaving Bakmut on May 10th and that after that moment, now June 1st, a new project could soon be in order, he said we will be leaving on May 10th.

May and that we will wait until the Russian people need us. which we think is going to happen very soon if you look at how our leaders are acting sounds like the promise of a coup or a revolution or something like that. I can only imagine that he had in mind that they would start blocking traffic and gluing themselves to buildings positioning the Wagner group as the militia serving the Russian people against the wishes and interests of their leaders is quite incendiary and the thing is pre-Gaussian is an intimate public relations man many Russians have accepted the line that Wagner has been the only competent force in war and when they have failed it has been because the Russian State Army has deprived them of ammunition.

I mean, it couldn't be much more brazen to tell Russians that elites like shoigu have been protecting their own children from war. war while his children have all returned home in coffins if Putin was in a position of strength pregosin he would probably already be dead clearly Putin is not in a position of strength he made the decision to start the war believing it was an easy victory to choose a operation that would be completed in three days turned into a war he can't win he apparently has no plan on how to get out of that eventuality he has factions around him fighting for Supremacy for what will come after his reign comes to an end and he also has no idea how to deal with it, so none of the post-Putin scenarios could be worse, someone like Priguration comes to power and is by no means the only powerful nut in the mix than the West. has a real problem on its hands, but for Ukraine there is no way out of this terrible war in which Russia does not move towards the inevitable next step of disintegration and chaos.

He will lose Ukraine if he does not succeed on the battlefield and stay in his position. of stagnation until it loses the support of its most important ally, the United States, so while uncertainty and chaos will be a large part of the consequences, Ukraine only hopes to win by taking actions that advance that chaos in a way or another if they win the war. the chaos will continue much better then, so they will bring it forward and see if it becomes the means to carry forward the resolution of the war as well, so yes, there will be more incursions into Russian territory, anything they can calculate will add to the steam. pressure cooker it is for the Kremlin right now and there will be a big push for Ukraine to gain one or preferably more significant advantages on the battlefield to show real momentum again to create the possibility of chaos because something that has become increasingly increasingly obvious is that success Because Ukraine will not mark the end of the crisis that Russia has posed to the existing World Order, it might even be just the beginning anyway, the rest of 2023 will be much more important than most commentators credit at this time.

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