Andrew Neil on SNP implosion | SpectatorTV

thanks to start, we are starting with the state of the SNP. I'm here now with viewer president Andrew Neal, who has been following the story closely. Brilliant, thanks Andrew for joining us on viewer television for the past month. or so since Nicholas Sturgeon resigned, we have had for the SMP, we have had arrests, resignations, arguments over membership levels, a contentious leadership election and in all the time you spend in politics, have you ever seen the

implosion

of a political party like this? Say no, I've never seen anything fall apart as fast as this big party, uh, falling apart.

I mean of course the Liz Truss government fell apart pretty quickly and uh I saw a comment that commentators say that on the disaster scale it's somewhere between Hindenburg and Liz Truss and I think that probably puts it in context correct. I mean, we would never have thought this, even two months ago, we would never have thought that Nicola Sturgeon's departure would lead to the SMP's position in Scotland crumbling. indeed, the collapse of the independence courts in Scotland is also a notable change. I mean only Shakespeare could cover you know what a fall there was and we haven't had the police report yet we haven't done it yet the police are still uh.

In the middle or towards the end of your investigations, there have been, as you say, a series of arrests. I see speculation in the Scottish media that even Nicholas Sturgeon could be arrested and brought in for questioning. I mean, that's just incredible, so it's a story that's by no means over, but it's probably going to get worse before it gets better, we still don't know what happened to the £600,000 they read. I see there is now a rather expensive caravan in the equation as well I mean only in British politics is a caravan credible evidence so let's see where it unravels, however it can't be to the benefit of the SMP.

I mean, what do you think the Scottish public think of this? I mean, they must be Just looking on in utter bewilderment that this sort of dominant party that dominated Scottish politics for years is now in complete anarchy. Well, just a few months ago, Nicholas Dungeon could walk on water, no, she, even stepping over a puddle, it's dangerous for her she uh she's not waving she's drowning and uh I the Scottish public um are amazed by what happened I don't think you fully understand uh I think it has discredited the SNP in the eyes of the voters uh a party that has until now dominated Scottish politics and in its own way I suspect will remain the biggest party but It is no longer Invincible, it is no longer the voice of Scotland in the way it liked to portray itself and I suppose the best context to see this is what is happening is the inevitable demon of what happens in the states of one party in which he has had the SMP at the top for a long time, almost for a generation, unchallenged by any of the other political parties in Scotland with a rather meek attitude.

The media, eh, who in many areas have encouraged her with a bubble in Hollywood and in Edinburgh, where there is just no one there to criticize her or the SNP, in fact, of anything, want to encourage her to go further. at a party that has brought Hawk to the radical Greens in Scotland too and I suppose in some ways and besides you can't question it, we watched that video of Nicholas Dungeon getting pretty confident when someone dared to suggest that the SMP's finances were anything but Rosie and pristine. So I think all of that comes from being in power for too long, not being challenged for too long, and not having an aggressive enough and strong enough media for too long, even though it was destined to come to an end in the end. somehow complicated.

He certainly never anticipated that it would end in a tragedy of Shakespearean proportions. Certainly spectacular. Where does this leave Hamza Yusuf now? I mean, he's tried to relaunch his party twice and now it's obviously been overshadowed by other events. he has the ability to lead the party to this point when this week he did his big kind of state of the union or whatever he would like it to be instead of the break up of the union uh speech about how he was going to run. things in the weeks, months, years, almost no one noticed, it was overshadowed by all the other events we've been talking about and I think that's part of your problem, the other events overshadow what you're trying to do and no one long ago. interested in what he is trying to do as a result and in fact the most dangerous thing for all politicians is not when they are being criticized, politicians are always criticized, even for a while, they can be ignored, you can survive that too , things can come back in your favor, but as I see the coverage of them across the spectrum, it has become an object of ridicule which is very dangerous for politicians when you make fun of a character that is not taken seriously, no I know how you recover from that and I would.

They say they are all supporters of the union and those who want Scotland and England to remain in the union that is the United Kingdom. I suspect the numbers should be crossed that the current Prime Minister is still Prime Minister for the foreseeable future, eh, because I think it's impossible for him to bring about the breakup of the UK if Nicholas Sturgeon couldn't do it. I see no way he can do it either, so at the moment he is probably the best guarantor of the The union between Scotland and England continues at the moment and I think that if Miss Forbes, his main rival, took over, it would be a more formidable figure and I see a lot of comments from people saying that maybe I won't be here for long.

You know they will do badly now they will lose seats to Labor in the general election they will lose even more seats than in the next holy red election he won't be there for long he will be replaced I think if he believes in the union you want to keep your fingers Crusaders, that doesn't happen, but it's a dark time for the SNP, it's a dark time for those who want to divide the UK as a dark time for the independence movement. uh at the moment and I would say the union seems as secure to me as it has been since Scotland voted 55-45 to remain in the Union in that referendum back in 2014.

Would you go so far as to even say That problem of the independence has been buried even for a generation or do you think that is stretching it too far. The problem is that in Scotland we don't know what a generation is. We were told that the last referendum had resolved the issue. indeed, Nicholas Sturgeon implied that he had settled the matter for a generation. It turns out, of course, a generation in Scotland maybe only five or ten years and of course, given male longevity in the west of Scotland, which is among the lowest in the western world. maybe that is the right generation, the right definition of a generation in Scotland, we have been living in a world for a generation where things can change very quickly, but it is not just the crisis currently facing the SMP that then becomes a crisis for the independent movement because the SNP is the Vanguard is the vehicle by which independence was supposed to happen all the questions that arose in the 2014 referendum, particularly the economic questions about what currency would be used, would there be a border between Beric And Carlisle?

How easy? Would it be appropriate for an independent Scotland to rejoin the EU? How would the Independence budget deficit that is currently financed by the rest of the Union be financed? How could you borrow in a new currency? All of these questions that were important in 2014 are even more important now and none of these questions have been answered convincingly, so whoever is running the SMP, even if they managed to get the show back on the road after this accident automobile of a period, still has these questions to answer and I have not come in any way close to doing so, so I believe that the generation of John Libya is certainly not gone as a prospect of Independence in the foreseeable future and may be now that the

implosion

of the SMP has left a bit of a void.

At the heart of Scottish politics, do you get the sense that workers are the ones who can really benefit from this or not? Also, it's not a proposal, they will be the ones who benefit from this because of how much we don't know, huh. The Conservatives stand to benefit from them because they are the party of government at Westminster and there will be anti-government votes not just in Scotland but across the UK, which is simply the price you pay for being in power for so many years. The Conservatives have been in power since 2010, so Labor is the party that will benefit and help Kia Starma in her efforts to form the next UK-wide government.

How many seats will it get? Well, no, no, prospects of returning to the days when the Scottish Labor Party had over 40 seats in Scotland and helped form governments at Westminster. I would be surprised if they get more than 20 seats, but they could get 15. They could get them, that's why I said before. In my opinion, the SNP, despite all its difficulties and all its messes, is likely to remain the biggest party in Scotland for some time, but people have become accustomed to voting that way, but they pay a premium. price for it. the party of central Scotland, of the central belt between Glasgow and Edinburgh, and less and less the party where it started, which is the more rural areas of north-east Scotland, the prosperous north-east of Scotland, but it is concerned about the Labor Party and is leaving with policies designed to appeal to that old Labor vote in the west of Scotland in particular, they will pay a price for Labor to win several of these seats and Greater Glasgow and even 15 would go a long way in killing resistance.

I think at the moment it has one 15 last time, my Loops would be 15 times the seats it has now, so I think to some extent it will go Labour's way, brilliant, thank you very much Andrew.