Putin’s circle’s ‘incompetence’ will prevent all out war | Christopher Steele

One of the problems in Russia is that leaders live in an increasingly smaller isolated bubble. It is very clear throughout this entire war in Ukraine and the period before that that there was no accurate information or political advice conveyed to the leadership and that is a big problem in an autocratic system and that means that it becomes somewhat unpredictable as to the path that the country and I think one of the things that is really being, uh Saving Grace, if you

will

, is the fact that Russia's intent has never been matched by its capabilities either. economic or military or political and um that's basically what saved us.

I mean, China in some ways is the opposite, it has enormous capabilities but not as evil and intentional, so I think that's how we have to look at Russia and we have to realize that. which is run by a very small group of people selected as a result of their loyalty to Putin rather than their competence. What do you make of the recent tougher stance taken by French President Emanuel Maon, warning of the prospect of ground troops deployed in the war in Ukraine and the British Foreign Secretary's assertion that Ukraine has or had the right to use weapons provided by Britain against targets inside Russia.

I think it is progress relative to what is happening on the ground. I think that for the first time in recent months we have certainly seen a prospect, not a probability, of the Ukrainian defense and the front line collapsing, and what the real ramifications of that would be, which would be, I think, several million refugees who they would enter. enter Europe, something that would be tremendously difficult to finance and manage, even politically. So I think maybe now Macron is realizing that actually one of Putin's key objectives and this is something that I believe in, as you've known for a long time, is to undermine and in some ways destroy the country itself.

EU and working through people like Victor Orban in Hungary and others, um, that is a real perceived threat now and of course Macron is strategically looking at the influence and power of the EU and France within that body and seeing is undermining, what do you think of the fear of escalation that so many leaders have warned against in this situation? I mean, presumably you're talking about nuclear exchanges or the use of nuclear weapons or even an attack on this. arian in that sense and I think the problem

will

be whether the Chinese are in fact restricting the Russians in all that and I think they are, that is certainly what we understand and that is somewhat reassuring, but you know, the one of The problem in Russia is that leaders live in an increasingly smaller isolated bubble.

It is very clear throughout this entire war in Ukraine and the period before that that no accurate information or political advice was conveyed to the leadership and that is a big problem in an autocratic country. system and it means that it becomes somewhat unpredictable in terms of the path that the country takes and I think one of the things that has really been, uh, Saving Grace, if you will, is the fact that Russia's intention has never really been matched by their capabilities, whether economic or military or political and um, that's basically what saved us. I mean, China in some ways is the opposite, it has enormous capabilities but not as evil and intentional, so I think that's how we have to look at Russia and we have to realize that it is being run by a very small group of people who They are selected as a result of their loyalty to Putin rather than their competence and that the transmission of information up and down is very difficult and that is a problem, you recently said that the global geopolitical situation is more worrying for you in this moment that in your entire 40-year career what worries you the most what worries me the most I think well several things one I don't believe uh democracies uh our Western democracies have really woken up to the fact that we are living in a new era , ER, we no longer live in the post-communist era where we didn't have to spend a lot of money on security and defense and other things, and there is a kind of sense.

While there are still quite significant divisions in Britain, what concerns me is our relationship with Europe and particularly the European Union, which is key to defending ourselves from incursions and instability directed at us by hostile states such as Russia and China, so I think we are not particularly well LED I think the states involved have their tails up, they are seeing an opportunity to fill a gap, not least in the global South, as it is called, where they can exert influence and point out things like that. -He called Western hypocrisy about Gaza and what does he have?

I think for the first time in my career we are on the defensive in the West and I think that is very worrying and if you were in MI6 now on the Russia desk, what would be your priority I think it would really be understanding the dynamics within Russia and leadership, but also looking at what is really happening in Russia. I mean, there are a lot of things happening in Russia that are kept quiet and not publicized. There was a figure released, I think it came out the other week, that showed that the murder rate in Russia increased by 900% in the last year.

I mean, clearly, the war is having a massive effect on the social fabric of Russia, presumably thousands of people. troops returning from the front in Ukraine, PTSD and everything else, all of which are being repressed, in addition to all the prisoners who have been released from prison, of course, practically the entire young Russian male prison population has been taken to fight in Ukraine and then is allowed to return to civilian life after six months. I mean, those are the kind of social experiments that I wouldn't want to experience in our own country and I really think that Russia is in a very steep decline both culturally and socially and everything. otherwise, as we see it today, I think strategically in the long term, Putin's current management of Russia is catastrophic for the country and what I mean is that he just started his fifth term as president, what kind of What future do you foresee for him?

Don't know. We know about him, there are a lot of rumors and information about his health etc, there is a good degree of instability in the leadership just below him, where people are competing for succession, one of the key Russian leaders, U Eagle, and his My son died a couple of months ago in Moscow under very mysterious circumstances, plus there's a lot of instability around the economy, you know, people falling out of Windows and people having heart attacks at 50 and everything else, like that. that there is a fair amount of instability just below the top leadership circuit and I think Russia's tendency is to become a vassal state of China, both economically and politically, which is deeply unpopular with the Russian people for whatever reason and dependency military of countries like North Korea and Iran.

I mean this is not where the average Russian, even the not particularly well-educated Russian, wants the country to be. Most Russians still want the country to be a European power and to have meaningful relations with Europe, both economic and social. , cultural. Let's say more optimistic times for relations between Russia and the West, what hope can be offered for the future now? There isn't much in the short term. I'm afraid. I mean, I think if you look at Russian history often, where there has been a war, If Russia has been involved and has lost or is perceived to have lost, then you get reforms and regime change and I think that has to be the hope that eventually this war will be a trigger point between the Russian people and the regime will change as it did. after 1905 and did so in the 1850s after defeating the Crimean War.

That's the kind of

circle

of Russian history, if you will, it's not a linear history like ours, it's much more of a circular history, so I think the hope is that Russia somehow burns in the field. battle in Ukraine and that we see some kind of regime change leading to reform, but I'm certainly not saying it's inevitable or likely, but it is possible, Chris, it's been good talking to you, thank you very much. For your time, thank you, you've been watching Frontline for times radio with Me Kate chabo. If you want to support us you can subscribe now, listen to Times Radio or go to Times.co.uk.

My thanks to our producer. Louis Sykes and you for watching, goodbye for now.