TESLA Growth - Giga Berlin & More - Sunday Live

Hello Hello Hello Hello Hello Hello hey I'm Warren Redlick uh thank you very much for watching let's talk about the

growth

of Tesla what Giga Berlin tells us about the

growth

of Tesla we take

giga

balin alone Giga Berlin just reached 5,000 vehicles a week, thank you to moderators Mark plot and Mark patochnick for moderating the chat, we're going to talk about Tesla, we're going to talk about how the company is growing, how this translates into growth, we're going to talk about SpaceX. We're going to talk about SpaceX Starship in particular and we're going to talk about the boring company, but we'll start with this and have a

live

chat and then after this video, I'll do this for about an hour after this video.

I'm going to do a

live

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I want to thank my followers on patreon and the local and YouTube channel members too and you can subscribe to me on Twitter now you can get the t-shirts at elonbitz.com you can also get the stainless steel water bottles at elonbits.com okay , I got that out of the way. So, 5000 per week a year after we delivered the first vehicles to customers and if we look, you can see that a couple of days ago they mentioned that we delivered a year ago, we delivered our first vehicles made in Germany, this is what they talk about. ramp Tesla Elon has said before that it takes 12 to 18 months and I think Drew Baglino has said this as well, it takes 12 to 18 months to ramp a factory.

If the factory starts producing zero vehicles, then the first one is produced. vehicle and then it typically takes Tesla 12 to 18 months to go from zero to producing at or near factory capacity and then they seem to squeeze out

more

after those first 12 to 18 months and find ways to generate additional production after that, but 250,000, if I build five thousand buildings a week it translates to 250,000 per year, just in March the target that we know is 500,000 per year and we know that they have said that they are really going there, they have applied to Germany for permission to expand production to a million units a year, whether it's

more

of a model or the next generation vehicle platform, we don't know yet, but this is a sign of growth, so I just want to play this video to you.

This is a video that Tesla showed this is how they make a model Y at Giga Berlin. I muted the video so you don't hear the music, but just to give you an idea of ​​what's going on at Giga Berlin, uh, in order. to make a vehicle, that's the process that goes through this is not the unpacking process that they talked about for the third generation, next generation platform, uh, that's the current process, which is like a direct assembly line, so I made a little spreadsheet, you know I love spreadsheets, so let's say if it's five thousand a week now, that would be a run rate of 250,000 a year because there are 50 weeks in a year, There are actually 52 weeks in a year, but call it 50 weeks in a year multiplied by five thousand is, can I do my calculations wrong?

That's 250,000. 5 times 50 is 250, that's 250,000. But they're still ramping up, so we're only in March, so by the time we get to December, they could be at their Run Rate of 10,000 a week, like this which I think 300,000 for the year is pretty conservative for Giga Berlin, as far as we know Giga Texas is a little bit behind Giga Berlin, so I think the 250,000 target for Texas is reasonable. Shanghai seems to be at a rate of about a million vehicles a year who knows there may be some indication that they may be cutting back on production. I don't believe it.

I think they are simply reorganizing production. New Elon usually does not want to reduce production. three months. 600,000 might be light. so I think if you add up all these numbers, if you add up all these numbers, you get 2.15 million vehicles produced, you know, Elon said they were targeting and Zach said they were targeting 1.8 million deliveries by 2023. Elon He said they could get 2 million. this suggests that over 2 million is not out of reach and this is the point about growth, is that the reason the title of the video is about Tesla's growth is that we see that it is going in fits and starts and I must make it clear that this is production, not deliveries this is not sales, it is how many vehicles would they ultimately produce, we expect all vehicles from Tesla producers to be sold to a customer and delivered, but we definitely see delays between production and deliveries, so I think we'll see an additional delay here now.

In the first quarter we probably saw more deliveries than production, so we'll wait and see how all these numbers add up. Oh, I think the latest numbers I'm seeing people are expecting 420,000 deliveries in the first quarter if we're seeing growth. from the first question, you know that 420, say 450,000, would already be 1.8 million, so the path to 2 million is pretty easy and is potentially more. Ken asks: Will all factories make car batteries and mega packs? No, not all factories will make mega packs, that's for sure, not all, and you know, not all factories will make batteries. I don't think, I mean, maybe eventually they will, but not now.

It could also be that Belinda Berlin hits 500,000 by the end of the year, um, if you follow the 12 to 18 months, if they're on that, if it's a year away, they should be fully operational in 18 months, which is six months from now. months, which would be September, so by the end of December they should be there. Yes, Europe works differently. China and Texas, so maybe it will take a little longer, but they should be hitting about 500,000 vehicles a year or 10,000 a week by the end of the year. I think that's the expectation that the number of shifts there may be increasing.

There may be other challenges, but I think they will get there and if they reach 450,000 by the end of the year and 500,000 by March 2024. These things don't matter much, I think people tend to focus. They want immediate results, but you know, I just wanted to get this right, you know we did 500,000 in 2020, we did 936,000 in 2021, which was much more than 50 percent growth of 500,000, you know, 500,000 growth of the fifty percent. of 500,000 it would have been 750. So, 2021 was a boom year. A year of monstrous boom. Now 2022 was only 1.3 million, only 47 growth in production, which apparently was a delay and the growth until 2023 should be higher. 50 percent again, you know, you never know what kind of curveballs they're going to throw at us and when you throw a Tesla, you never know what's going on, but I think these numbers look promising, it looks like Berlin should hit 300 000 and maybe 350.

This year Texas should hit 250 and maybe 300 if they hit 350 and 300, now you're talking about 2.25 million. Shanghai, you know. I think there is some idea that Shanghai is going to reduce production, which doesn't make sense to me. I think Shanghai is really going to grow, but a million is certainly within reach for Shanghai and Fremont could easily surpass 600,000. So this number might be conservative. I tend to be overly optimistic. We have to remember that there is a week where there is a shutdown here, there is a couple of weeks where there is a shooting there because they are renovating something, but you know, a number over 2 million seems really very likely at this point, let me Addressing this question in the chat, there is a question from Joe Wilder, Will Tesla do anything to make structural battery packs more repairable?

No, no, that is not something necessary or important for Tesla to do this. This is the wrong kind of question to ask if there is damage to a Tesla structural package that is damage to the frame if a normal car suffers the frame. the damage is then added up, so if a Tesla suffers damage to its structural battery pack, that is frame damage and any insurance company is going to total that vehicle, now the key with Tesla is number one, they absorb the crashes better than other vehicles that are less likely to suffer. they are broken because they are designing the vehicles to better survive crashes and secondly they are the safest cars on the road in a variety of ways and the biggest thing Teslas work on is not crashing and they have less crashes than other cars, so no, it's not that repairs aren't needed, it's that if you have a car that has frame damage, that will almost always be considered a total loss by an insurance company, that's just what happens with cars when there is frame damage they just write it down.

It is considered a total loss so hopefully there will be less accidents and that becomes less of a problem but the same question arises with any other vehicle whether it is electric or not but there is no point in repairing something in case of a total loss, what will they do. If a Tesla is wrecked and totaled, they will recycle the battery pack and make a new battery pack for a note for a new vehicle. Any predictions on Tesla's power numbers for the first quarter. I think Tesla's power numbers will be higher. I mean, that's another part of the growth story, thanks for mentioning that, William, so if I'm right, Tesla will surpass 2 million in 2023 in total.

Vehicles produced, not delivered, but produced with 1.37 million. I think 1.37 million in 2022, so 2 million would be. You know, more than 50 percent growth in the 50 stage of growth. I think we're going to break up. That mega pack is growing faster. Sorry, lead the mega pack for a second. Tesla energy is growing faster. We're told Tesla power is growing. Faster than vehicles, vehicles grow 50 per year. Energy is growing between 150 and 200 per year, so we will see significant growth and energy on the energy side, the thing is that the energy side is a relatively small percentage of the company's performance. to see additional revenue, but that's like one percent of the company's revenue, energy I think is 10 or less of the company's revenue, so if energy triples and cars increase 50 percent cent, then energy could reach 10, it's actually more in 2024, 2025, when energy starts to gain a lot more. impact and then at the same time, you know, at some point some of us think FSD is going to go, you know, level five, whatever you want to call it, we'll be able to drive without a human in it, that's It's going to be a big change for everything.

Have I seen the charts that Roland Percher and the Tesla Kyra report posted? oh 2.1, okay, I see where you're going, so okay, I just wanted to get to this point, to be clear, we should see over 50% growth in vehicle production and deliveries. I think we're going to see a decrease. decrease in the average sales price of vehicles. I think the average selling price is likely to go down a bit, which doesn't mean that automotive revenues won't increase as much at the same time if FSD crosses the threshold, more people start signing up for FSD. that could increase, but I don't know when we'll see FSD cross that threshold for more people to buy it, but then energy will increase by more than 50 percent, so I think we have a very good opportunity for Tesla. increase revenue by more than 50 Supercharger revenue is small, but will likely increase more than 50 percent.

You are adding other EVS. I don't know its price, what it will affect the price of energy, but you know the supercharger is a small. part of the mega package gross margin Now compared to when they ran Tesla Energy's margin, if you look at the Q4 numbers, Tesla Energy had a point, I'm going to say 1.3 billion in revenue, 1.15 billion in profits, so that's about 150. million in profits on 1.3 billion in revenue, so that's a little over 10 gross margin, uh, Xavier, that comes up later in the video. Relativity comes up later in the video so I would say that right now Tesla's total energy is about 15.

Gross margin 10 to 15, the theory is that when they start manufacturing Mega Packs at scale the margins will increase , but right now I'm not really focused on the margins. I think the margins will come with time. I'm focused on the income side. that the profit side will come and I don't think we should worry as much about the profit side andWe also have to acknowledge that if you listen to Zach Kirkhorn, Tesla's CFO/currency master, gross margin is wrong. The number to look at operating margin is a better number to look at Tesla's gross margins may suffer a little bit, but Tesla's operating efficiency is improving, so the operating margin is staying pretty constant, so it's a good story, good numbers are arranged enthusiastically.

Phil says: "I would like to see the share price at 300 by the end of the week. Thank you. I want the shares because I am trying to sell my house. We have had a few bumps in the road with selling the house, but I want the stock price goes down around 100 when I sell when I get the cash for my house so I can buy more sharesWell, let me move on real quick I want to cover a couple more topics and then we'll get back to the question about Starship and SpaceX This. is by Eric Berger, who wrote the book "Liftoff", which is a summary of the early days or the story of the early days of SpaceX SpaceX's three main competitors in Russia Europe and the United States launched three rockets in 2023 SpaceX ends to launch three missions in three days I think I saw two of them and Elon said, as long as there is no serious launch anomaly, SpaceX will deliver 80 percent of Earth's payload to orbit this year, not counting Starship, just Falcon 9 launches and maybe heavy Falcon launches.

SpaceX will launch 80 percent of Earth's payload, this is likely by mass, the amount of mass to orbit not counting Starship. Starship if successful. which I think is quite likely that Starship will deliver payloads into orbit by the end of the year. Starship will deliver a much larger payload, so this number increases, which is why SpaceX dominates the launch industry, absolutely 80 percent of the payload in orbit. SpaceX is completely dominating the launch industry and their lead is accelerating so I missed something no I didn't so I wanted to mention this because Xavier mentioned it and I had already planned to talk about this space relativity it's a start like a startup launching. from Cape Canaveral and saw this launch in person from Jetty Park.

They 3D print 85 percent of this rocket. I think their long term plan is to 3D print almost the entire rocket. Your next vehicle is yet to arrive. Taryn R. They did it. through Max Q, the highest voltage state in the printed structures, great proof that they reached stage separation, the main engine shut down and at stage separation there was some kind of problem starting the second stage engine stage, so they did not reach orbit, but they did. real progress and this if it had been successful would have been the first methylocks, methane, liquid oxygen, liquid methane, liquid ox and rocket orbit, they didn't make orbit and by the way it looked really cool, it was a lot of fun to see the color of the boom was different than the Falcon 9 or then the SLS um different boosters have different colors, so SLS is a hydrogen rocket.

Falcon 9 is an rp1 rocket with liquid oxygen and methane relativity spaces and liquid oxygen rocket. If you've seen the Starship launches, you'll notice the engines have a sort of bluish tint to them, so you saw that with this rocket and it was really exciting. In fact, I know someone who doesn't work well there, but you know, I met someone, you know him a little bit, so I thought when I saw this release and it looked like there was a grass fire or some other fire on the platform, that the fire , the platform light lasted much longer than usual.

Typically with SpaceX the launch goes up and the pad goes dark and the pad lit up for minutes after launch so that's okay given all the work on the booster it's okay so let me cover one last thing: boring company, you know, I love talking about boring company, that's right, I actually think it's boring. company perhaps Elon's largest company in terms of value. I know it's hard to understand, but what they are doing is amazing. They have announced a proposal to expand. They currently have about a mile or two miles of tunnel in Las Vegas. There is a current plan.

That's already set to build like 29 miles of tunnel in total, now they're looking to expand that to 65 miles of tunnel. This is a great example of what can happen with the boring company and my vision is that a thousand cities in the world have 100 miles. of tunnel and that's a hundred thousand miles per tunnel, so a boring company goes from two miles of tunnel to 100,000 miles per tunnel which is 50,000 dollars, so you figure 50,000 x six billion and you can see where it's going and I'm just imagining and that's not counting the tunnels that go between cities and just drilling the Bering Strait like I've talked about will be another 25,000 miles. if you made four tunnels from Los Angeles. to Shanghai, so I think there's a chance that this boring company owns hundreds of thousands of miles of tunnels, letting you know dollar for dollar per customer per mile, if you face the numbers, maybe it's less than that, maybe if it's 10 cents per mile per customer and you get 10,000 miles per tunnel, that's a thousand dollars a day, actually, you know, three or four hundred days, you get crazy numbers for the value of a boring company. , absolutely insane figures and now, what is it?

What is happening with the boring company, what is holding them back or what is taking time is that they have built a factory to build their next generation tunnel boring machine and that building is built. So the plan was to start producing one tunnel boring machine a month or 12 a year and when you take 12 and each of them will do 50 miles of tunnel a year then you're talking about 600 miles of tunnel a year just on the TBMs. of the first year and that is very true, but then We are planning to make a next generation TBM after that, which will be even faster and then they will produce a higher volume of those machines and deliver more tunnels and more places, so yeah, Mark pathochnick, moderator Mark Potosi, thanks Mark, points.

I realize that boring Las Vegas has already had over a million trips. I mean, this is just, you know, think about a million trips in two miles of tunnel would probably cost two dollars a trip or, you know, effectively it would cost two dollars a trip, that's two. There's already millions of dollars, um, and if it's only two dollars a ride, it'll probably be more like five dollars a ride or ten dollars, depending on where your hole is, that's our goal, very good, so Raymond says, Is Elon waiting for Starling to be there? positive cash flow before IPO, will you put some of your house money into the IPO instead of Tesla?

There are two possible IPOs on the way, there is Starlink and there is a boring company, any shipping company further away. Starlink IPO, possibly next year there will be positive cash flow. I think you are hoping for cash flow to be positive. I think that's part of Elon's plan: not to launch an IPO until they've demonstrated a business model that works because that will increase the valuation if it's actually working and making money. It's much easier to explain to people why they should give you money if you're already losing money. It's much more difficult. I think there is an open question: what will the valuation of Starlink be when they do their IPO?

I see that Starlink is a multi-billion dollar company in At least a trillion dollar company and maybe a five trillion dollar company. Check my channel. I have made videos. Search Starlink on my channel and you will see it. If Starlink does an IPO with a valuation of $50 billion, then that's 20 times bigger. Yes, I will buy. starlink stock in IPL, if you know it is launched with a market capitalization of 200 billion dollars, then yes, maybe maybe not. I'll have to see what he goes for in terms of evaluation. Same with a boring company. I don't expect a boring company to go public. for two or three years at that point they should have more than 20 TBMs, maybe 50 TBMs, drilling projects around the world and you know, depending on their business model, they will make money from that yet, I'm not sure, so we'll see. , but I think it's a boring company, you know, you just do the numbers from what I said, let's say you had a hundred thousand miles per tunnel and you were making 400 per mile, right?

It was 10 cents per mile times ten. one thousand then four four thousand dollars per mile right um about a year no that was one day it was one day no sorry no that I think it was ten thousand passengers per day paying 10 cents per mile one thousand dollars per mile multiplied by 400 days is four hundred thousand dollars per mile per year per hundred thousand miles the 400 that I'm struggling with, Matt, I think I think it's like 40, it's 40 billion dollars a year in revenue, I think it's more than that and then it doesn't I don't think be really limited to 100,000 miles and I think they could get over 10 cents per mile per passenger, so it could be 50 cents per mile per passenger.

You know, it's crazy how much value there is and you know. the potential like drilling the Bering Strait and replacing all the calculators, please use the cow, okay, I'll do it, you persuaded me, use a calculator, uh, what did I get? So ten thousand times point one is one thousand dollars times four hundred. four hundred thousand times one hundred thousand and eight do that again. I got I think I got 40 billion I think I got 40 billion dollars a year in revenue, well, 40 billion dollars a year in revenue and then you give it a ratio of 25 and you got a trillion dollar valuation, oh , 400 400 days just because it's easier to calculate than 365 days, that's just the misleading factor, you know.

I think a hundred thousand miles a tunnel is small and I think it uses a Bond soda, yes, that's right. I'm going to use an abacus, okay, so I'm just going to look at the chat to see if you have any questions for the chat, please let me know. CN Fuie says there are already a lot of Teslas in Panama and it's a small market, hello Panama, um, I wasn't aware. That there are many Teslas in Panama is sienfue, is there a supercharging network? Please come and let me know if there is a supercharging network in Panama.

Yes, it's just rounding up if we hit 2 million this year along with a decent mega package with a gross price of 500 shares by Q1 2024, well, this is what I'm not going to make short-term stock price predictions. I want to address this now because I'm talking about growth. I'm talking about long-term growth. I'm not talking about short-term growth. stock price growth, so if we see Tesla grow more than 50 percent this year, then we're talking about the first quarter of 2024. First, you know, sometime in January 2024, Tesla announces its numbers. On January 2, they announced what the production deliveries were for the year.

They typically don't announce Tesla power numbers, but we'll have a clue of that by looking at the Q2 and Q3 '12 numbers for Tesla power. Are we seeing the growth that was projected or not? But it arrives in the first quarter of 2024 and they announce. Hey, we delivered over 2 million vehicles and this was our revenue from what we delivered, you know, energy went up 150 or 200 percent and became 10 of the revenue and you can see the growth there. I would like to say that that leads to the share price going up dramatically. You know we see this throughout the quarters of the year as each quarter gets better and better, we should see these numbers grow, we should see the stock price grow, but there's a lot going on in the economy that's keeping it down. the actions. price valuations there are a wide variety of things that are keeping stock price valuations low one of them is the economy, right, there are people worried that we are going to have hyperinflation, there are people worried that we are going to have some type of debt collapse or banking collapse there are a lot of fears in the economy and these are the type of things that keep stock prices low even when the numbers are good, so they predict the path of the Tesla stock price , water bottles and stainless steel t-shirts at elonbitz. com there's another stainless steel water bottle back here the Elon water bottle thanks to Fred Jessup for the Tesla lamp um so don't get carried away by the stock price in the short term I'm a long term investor I'm keeping an eye on 20 25 20 30 and so on, really 20 26 until 2030 and mainly 2030. um, no, I expect to face financial pressures that we will see, but I hope not to sell any shares until the 20th, 2026 or 2030, really 2030, but yeah, like that. at least we see plans for the long range model 3.

I'm Rob, not sure if you're referring to my model 3 long range or something else, he says sensible, given all the work on the booster, any chance they might try to collect. I don't think Tess, uh, SpaceX is going to try to trap the super heavy booster under Starship on the first try. I think it's justThey will get a good launch. They have said they will make a soft water landing. I think they want to make sure they monitor how it lands and if it lands well, they'll try to catch it on the next one. At Starlink there are already a couple of people using it on the panel.

Panama is already out of the zone and it is faster than fiber optics here. I'm sure the rear wheel drive model 3 may lose the federal incentive. That's true. How many semi-trucks do you think Tesla will eventually sell per year? It's 400,000. Realistic asking price. Yes, it is a realistic asking price. um 400,000 a year uh 400,000 is a realistic selling price and I think they'll sell 200,000 a year um what's going on here? I'm having some weird things going on with the chat for me, um, someone asked me to talk about the Deep Synergy between all the Elon companies. I don't know if I would use the word profound.

I would just say that there is a lot of cooperation between the Elon companies. SpaceX and Tesla have collaborated all along. The CEO of the boring company was a SpaceX employee. A SpaceX engineer. There's definitely a lot of collaboration, you know, like Starship, SpaceX rockets use Model 3 battery packs or use Tesla motors. SpaceX's materials science team helped with the development of the stainless steel for the cyber truck and they are helping with the development of the aluminum alloy used in the Giga. throws a variety of things in there. I don't know much more about that comment about the current plans between Tesla and Indonesia.

I don't know of any well-defined plan between Tesla and Indonesia. I know it's talked about, but it's talked about, it's even talked about. It's something real and I don't like to predict that. I think I don't think a lot of people saw Giga México coming until a couple of days before. It was what came out before they made the formal announcement a lot of people were talking about Indonesia a lot of people were talking about Korea a lot of people were talking about I was talking about Japan other places in the US uh I think Giga megaseko was This surprises me a little because it seems like it's not that far from Austin, so why build there?

But you may know that much of Giga Texas' supply chain is already in Mexico, so building Giga Mexico allows them to leverage their current supply chain to do more. Did I get a chance to try out the newest version of FSD? Any ideas on this? Yes, my son was here with my 2018 model 3 long range that has FSD beta version 11.3.1, we drove it for about I drove two hours. I live in Cape Canaveral. We drove to Melbourne and back and went a little out of our way here and there. There is one place in particular. There's a left turn I do on my Model X that has 10.69.25.3, you know? the slightly older version of FSD beta and for a few months I tried to turn left but I didn't do it right, it lifts up and the road has a curved shape like this and it seems like the car can't. see where the lines are as you approach the intersection and when you reach the intersection at 10.69 the strap or blue tentacle or whatever is sticking out in front on the UI starts flashing from left to right and instead of making the left turn it's supposed to be done nine out of ten times, it would make the right turn, so the model 3 with FSD beta 11.3.1 turned left correctly twice in a row, it should now I might have done it a few more times, maybe, but I did it correctly twice in a row.

I saw a flash of the belt to the right, but it turned correctly, so how many cyber trucks by the end of the year? I think it will be a small number, I think less than ten thousand. How soon will we see lithium-ion phosphate cells in North America, whether from Tesla or one of its suppliers? I definitely think there are suppliers working on lithium ion phosphate plants in US battery cell manufacturing, yes, but I haven't seen anything definitive. however, I think Tesla will make lithium iron phosphate cells, but when I learned that there was a thought so far, I thought there was a Tesla that reportedly had at least a million square feet of space in Houston and I thought that maybe that's where they're going to build lithium iron phosphate cells because a million square feet is a lot, but I saw on the Tesla careers website that there are only a couple of jobs right now, but they seem to indicate that it's a warehouse so I think it's Logistics to support Giga taxes, I guess things arrive at the Port of Houston.

You know this Port of Houston is probably the closest port for Giga Texas, so I assume they are using this warehouse as a base for incoming material. from the port of Houston before going to Austin where am I on the waiting list for the cyber truck? I'm about number 10,000. I ordered in the first hour William pmcd says 25,000 cars in about 18 months question mark no I don't I don't think so I think they will start making the car in 18 months or less like they still They wouldn't have started construction, you know, will they complete the factory in less than a year?

I think there's a good chance of that happening, so if they start if they start construction, what are we in March now? Then they start construction in June or July. They build the factory in about a year. Then it is June or July 2024 when they build the factory. They launch the equipment in the factory in 2024. and probably start production in 2024 early 2025, that's my best guess on that and I should say no. I think people are focusing a little more than they should on Giga México. Giga México is important. I think we'll see more coming soon.

Generation vehicle factories elsewhere, I think Tom, as you told us, they will build several factories at the same time. I think we will see the next generation vehicle platform. The factory built structure built in Giga Texas enters near Giga Texas, it could be somewhere else but I think Texas makes sense it could be that for work reasons they choose another location but I think it makes sense I think we are going to see one in Berlin and I think We are in or near Berlin and I think we will definitely see one in Shanghai and then there is a question: will we see one in Japan?

I think it makes sense to do one in Japan, yeah, clever plot. Mark Trama says I think Giga Mexico is targeting the Latin American market, not the United States. States of America I think that is correct. I believe the vehicles produced for Giga Mexico at the Tesla factory outside of Monterey, Mexico. I think those vehicles will head south, maybe to other places, but I don't think they will arrive. United States No, I don't think that's the plan. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I think it's most likely that Tesla will build a next-generation vehicle. A factory in the United States and Giga Mexico will be sold to Mexico and everything. from Latin America and maybe some other markets, maybe Africa, who knows and I mean, I'm making this up, that's just a guess and maybe Europe, I mean, maybe Giga Mexico will deliver to Europe, but I think It is more likely that we will see Giga México. we will deliver to Latin America we will see a European factory for next generation vehicles, etc.

John Bay says which will be bigger revenue for Tesla, is the semi truck or the Cyber ​​Truck, those should be great, um, that's a good question, I think they'll do it. make four times as many cyber trucks, but the semi-trucks will cost more than four times or four times as much, so it should be the same. I don't think there's actually any more market for semi-trailers or anything like that in other countries. I'm not sure how much market there is for Cyber ​​Truck in other countries. You know, maybe there is also a working Cyber ​​Truck version that works in other countries.

I'm just not sure, so I think overall it will be long. The eventual Tesla semi trucks could end up generating more revenue for the company because not only will they sell them in North America but they will sell them in other parts of the world, they will have to refurbish them, but they will do it. that and I just don't see a huge pickup truck Market in other countries Tesla van in 22 Yes, I think a Tesla van could be based on the Cyber ​​Truck platform. It would make sense. Can I comment on Tesla's footprint in Africa, as far as I know?

Tesla has almost zero footprint in Africa Africa is a small market, it is important in the long term, but not immediately. Michelle Michelle says I'm number two million for the Cyber ​​truck. I don't think they will reach 2 million, but the last number. I heard it was like 1.7 million and who knows how accurate that is. The cyber truck would sell well. I see that nothing Tesla makes will sell. Mark's diagram says that a cyber truck with a cell wall in Africa, nothing Tesla makes will sell well in Africa because Africa is poor, the volume just isn't. There is one of those things: the same thing happens with India, the same thing with Bangladesh or Pakistan, they are very populist countries, there are a large number of people in these countries or, in the case of Africa, on the continent, but there is so much poverty , there is so little wealth. that not many people can afford to buy a Tesla, even the standard model 3, even the next generation vehicle platform for twenty-five thousand dollars.

I think it will be twenty thousand dollars, it will be hard to sell in a place where you know people are so Poor Alex K says Tesla should be more aggressive and innovative in trying to get people to upgrade their vehicles and become more aggressive in the second-hand refurbished markets similar to smartphones. No, I think Tesla is doing well. I guess I'm trying to piece together that question. To get people to upgrade, there is a lot of demand for Tesla vehicles, many of us want to upgrade to the next vehicle. I don't think they have a problem getting people excited about their new vehicles and I don't think it's a challenge to get people excited about their new vehicles.

To buy used Teslas, it's just that there is a demand problem in general due to the economic situation, but around 1 million on the Cyber ​​truck, but you probably can't afford it, we'll see where the price is when it hits a million. The millionth vehicle, which is probably a question people ask me, when do I think they will deliver? Do you know how many? And I think we're probably looking at 10,000 this year and 200,000 next year and maybe I'm making up numbers. It's better than that, maybe it's 50,000 this year and 300,000 next year, but you know it's really, you know there was a report that there's a second, at least there's a rumor and maybe a report that there's a second.

Giga of 9,000 tons. the press is delivered from idra to Giga Texas, which would mean they will go with two lines, which I think makes sense. I think the original plan was that they would make 250,000 to 300,000 vehicles a year. They have a very good idea of ​​what these Giga presses can do and I think they can produce around 250 000 units a year and the gas foundries for 250 000 units a year so ordering two Giga presses means they plan to make 500 000 per year, that's my rough estimate. Michelle Michelle says Is there somewhere we can see our Tesla driving score? I can't see my Tesla driving score.

If you have Tesla insurance, you can see your driving score. Otherwise, I don't think you can, as far as I know, um, oh, Raymond Chen mentions Chet and he mentions GPT training. another API like cheap alpaca um let me talk about GPT real quick I paid this morning I decided to pay for the upgrade to gpt4 it's 20 a month I was playing with it um stinky fingers yeah I think the video is an Optimus investor day I didn't say it was fake, I said it was simulation. I guess I think it was the simulation software. I don't think it was real.

Optimus is doing the things he showed. He could be wrong. Most people think I'm wrong. I still think I'm right about that. I don't know if we will ever know. DPT, so I paid 20 a month to use gpt4. Go to chat.openai.com. I'm quite impressed. I mean, I think it's a step up from GPT chat version three, whatever 3.5 is. I asked some pretty extensive questions if you go to my Twitter today wr4 nygov. Just search for Warren Relic on Twitter and you can find it. I think I'm sorry. The improvement is significant. I asked him questions like I have this plan to build a solar farm.

I asked questions about that. I asked questions about the likely efficiency of my pod car given my projected front surface area and my mass and and so on and you know, he said that initially it said it could go 20 miles per kilowatt hour, which is my goal, which surprised me a little bit. , then I asked him to add rolling resistance considering the weight and that reduced it to 15 miles per hour. kilowatt hours I think I'm going to be able to adjust the front surface area and maybe reduce the weight a little bit and maybe get a better drag coefficient.

I basically gave it the same drag coefficient as the aptera which is 0.13 maybe I can do better with that drag coefficient. I think the important thing is that we lower the front surface area, that's going to be the most important thing and I have this idea by the way, I had this idea for the Pod car, oh, I'm. meeting with I met with um I went to the University of Florida my sonjunior entered the University of Florida very excited so he took uh took the boy two to get oriented to an orientation while we were there I stopped at a place called Gator Motorsports if If you're a Florida fan, you can check out Gator Motorsports.

They have a project there that builds electric racing cars. We are building an electric racing car for a competition. I talked through LinkedIn to a couple of guys I went to. there and I met with a different guy there, I had a nice conversation, I met with someone from Florida Tech this week and I want to talk to him about, I'm thinking about hiring a summer intern, it probably won't be this summer, it probably will be next summer or maybe you know, but I would like to hire an intern for 12 weeks to build the Pod car or build the solar farm house.

I haven't decided what I'll do first yet. I'm waiting for my engineer in Athens, Georgia who has the pre-proto type and he just told me that he was having some problems, so it will be another week before he gets the pre-proto type. Wolf says how many Giga presses there are in Berlin now. We're at a run rate of 250,000 I think that's a good question. I do not know the answer. um, yeah, I don't know how many Giga presses there are in Berlin. That's a good question we should ask Joe Tetmeyer. that question Maca 302 says I'm a thousand percent wrong that the robot demo is a simulation, they are very good obviously, if a random person on Twitter on YouTube comments on YouTube chat comments says I'm wrong then I must be wrong, okay, I'll say it.

If you watch that investor day video of the Optimus Bots moving around doing the number one things, there's a moment where it disconnects and I didn't think it looked realistic, it looked like a CGI simulation, whatever, it didn't look real to me and So, the way it's all set up, I have an idea of ​​how much they've accomplished with Bot, so with Optimus so far I don't think they've gotten that far. Michelle Michelle says: Has anyone bought a new Tesla and then bought it? FSD informed you how long it took. I bought my model X in June.

It took me three or four months to get the beta version. You still have FSD without Beta. It's just not that it's limited, but it's still like I can still drive in some no. -road situations with FSD not as good as FSD beta just to be clear, am I going to use geothermal energy? No, yes, the idea would be a paid internship. I would pay someone like, I don't know, 20 bucks an hour, um, no. Clinton's internship doesn't know if they're building or selling more semis. The idea of ​​the internship is to find someone who is working on the guy I'm meeting with this week from Florida Tech, which is the Florida Institute of Technology in Melbourne, who is working with.

On a project related to building a car, I just think about getting a student that I know between the second and third year and help me build, you know, what I really want to do with the podcast which, by the way, that brings me back. this idea for the podcast I've been thinking about how to build it and now I had this idea: what if the bottom of the vehicle was a sheet of stainless steel like the stainless steel on the cyber truck? It's not the same metal, it's not the same alloy as the cyber truck. but building it from a cyber truck is three millimeters thick.

What if it were between one and a half or two millimeters thick? What if that was the basic base platform? You know, it's a lot easier to manufacture than putting a bunch of parts together and So how do you build the platform and the vehicle on top of that platform? I think it's an interesting idea. I'm not saying it's the right idea. I just think it's an interesting idea. uh macaw 302 302 you, no, I don't have a photo on your profile I appreciate that you're here every week but I don't recognize your name and look, I might be wrong, no, I don't know you that well, I can't even tell you if you're a subscriber from one year subscriber if you are chatting you are not a member of the YouTube channel David navari says I don't think Elon fools people and investors, he didn't say it was real, where did he do it?

Elon says these are real Optimus Bots doing these things. I don't think he said they were real Bots. Elon in an interview said it's 100 reais, but it took him a few tries. What interview, where did you see and I didn't see an interview? about that, I look at it, I swear, I look at it, maybe I missed it and I've been busy just to be clear, like I said, I spent the last two days with the kid too, taking the second kid to the University of Florida and going dancing, kid too. he likes to dance we went country dancing um I have other things to do with the house trying to sell the house we had a contract on the house the buyer abandoned the contract he had some fights so a lot of things going on so I'm having fun Stephen Mark Ryan asked why are you stressed?

I'm like I'm stressed about selling my house so I try to exercise all that stuff, I'm actually physically tired from all the exercise I've done. been doing, I think I'm trying too hard, but not too hard, um, let's see if they're building or selling more semis, it seems to be a secret. I don't think the plan with the semis is that they are building new factory space in Nevada, so the existing semi line will not increase significantly. They are building a small volume of semi-trailers on the existing line to start getting them out and learning about the manufacturing process. but they are going to build a brand new factory in Giga Nevada, so don't expect it to semi ramp up until next year to even start ramping up until next year.

I mean, it's probably going to take them a year to build the factory addition in Nevada, so we're in March now, so you're talking about March 2024 before they actually start manufacturing the new facility, so don't expect a lot of volume. of semis for a while. Rook Chen says I just go for a walk every day. to work out, so every morning almost every morning I walk to the gym on the beach on my way back from the gym. I work out of the gym for about an hour. I strength train four days a week and do high intensity cardio two days a week. week in the gym and then I go dancing two or four nights a week, so I'm getting and my thighs are getting.

I started blaming Steve and Mark Ryan. I started doing squats and now my thighs hurt when I dance. It's crazy to throw your Model There is no news about the 4680 in mass production. I think the 4680 is increasing, it just takes time to increase and you know there are multiple problems, there is a increase for volume and then there are two that start the cathode installation to get the cathode material and know the dry battery electrode and all that together and then the next thing is improving the chemistry over time so if Elon was trying to trick us on investor day I don't think Elon said this is real I don't know it's not the joints it's the muscles that they hurt, the joints are fine, um, with brighter Elon didn't get interviewed by Herbert, come on, stinky fingers, Elon I wasn't interviewed by Herbert and if Herbert someone tells me I'm wrong Didn't Elon do an interview with Herbert?

I must have missed something. What is my opinion on MBAs and lawyers in light of Elon's vision for them? I practically shared Elon's opinion. vision of both mbas and lawyers before Elon said anything about them and Sandy Monroe has a more or less similar vision. I am now a retired lawyer. um, I think there are good people, right? Zach Kirkhorn is an NBA player. I am a retiree. Lawyer I think I did a good job for people as a lawyer. I think there are a lot of good lawyers out there, a lot of good MBAs, but overall their contribution to society is less.

I think I'm a big fan of engineers. Engineers do more for society. I think that lawyers, on the one hand, do very valuable things and mbas do very valuable things, but they also do things on the opposite side and, as you know, there are a lot of things that I don't know. I also know the legal world quite well and there are a lot of negative things in the legal world. The fact that we create laws that create jobs for lawyers and lawyers themselves do good work, but it is because of laws that were created often by lawyers who were elected that created jobs and really a lot of this is on the voters to vote. for things like in lives in 10 minutes I will finish this video and go to my live broadcast on The Daily lie warrenredlick.locals.com and I will be talking about the war on drugs and the war on drugs is an act of job creation for lawyers and others, but it is not good for society and I felt that I saw a lot of behavior that I would describe as not very noble among lawyers, particularly in the personal injury world, but also in the criminal defense world and in the world of the prosecution. um kirkhorn discusses what he learned from Jim Farley's recent interview and his expectations of trying to read eight percent gross margins for his electric vehicle. business, so I saw that Ford is breaking out its EV numbers separately from the rest of the company and I didn't find it credible.

I think they are losing a lot more money per vehicle than they are showing. I think if they were accountants. for their losses in the same way that Rivian, um, and Lucid account for their losses, so their losses would be much larger per vehicle. I think they left out the r d amortization that happened before, that's just my guiding intuition, um, yeah, it's not just a grievance. reform is much more than tort reform, torrent reform is part of it, but honestly, as you know, some of you probably believe in speeding tickets. I think we should get rid of speeding tickets and we will.

Taxi theft will get rid of speeding tickets I think. We shouldn't treat drunk driving as a criminal offense and that will make a lot of people angry, but read my book DUI at the fair. There's probably a link to my book in the video description. Read my book on DUI fair and understand how it works. The DUI system works and how horrible it is. He's probably nice. The wolf says I was on jury duty recently. It was painful to see the lawyer defend someone who was obviously guilty. Well, you probably shouldn't have formed an opinion about whether he was guilty or not. before the case was over, that was probably the instruction he was given.

I have defended people that people thought were guilty and I would say that to understand my job as an attorney, each of my clients is innocent until proven guilty. I'm no longer a lawyer, but as a criminal defense lawyer I treated every client as if they were innocent until proven guilty because that's how the law works and if you hire a lawyer to defend you in a criminal case, do you do it? would do? you want one who believes you're guilty or you want one who believes you're innocent you want and that doesn't mean it wasn't unrealistic, but I'm always looking for how can I prove to a jury or how can I prove to a judge that this case is not should I move on, um or how can I help this client get in a better situation, like mental health counseling, drug counseling, whatever and put him in a better situation, then go to the prosecutor and the judge and say, hey , he is doing these things to make it better.

We can reach an agreement? That's what we do very honestly. That's what's criminal. That's what good criminal defense attorneys do a lot. Jupiter James says that he learned that labor costs in Mexico are much lower than in China, no. what I expected um I'm not 100 sure it's true but I'm open to it um OJ was acquitted great system I think OJ was acquitted correctly that will make a lot of people angry but I think I think the prosecution the case was weak the prosecution did a job very poor, um, the police did a very poor job, if you think the police did a good job investigating OJ, maybe you should make a video on The Daily live.

I'll do a video on The Daily Live about the OJ case that sounds like a good idea I want to talk about the OJ case I want people to understand I'm not saying if he's innocent or guilty I'm saying the case that was presented to the jury by both the police and thanks to the prosecutors and yes, there were good defense lawyers working for OJ, but mainly thanks to the police and secondarily the prosecutors. The police did a horrible job on the OJ case and the prosecutors did a pretty bad job on the case. OJ case, the jury had to find him not guilty, they had to do it.

I don't know about Steven Avery, but I'll look him up, so we've got five minutes left, let me just before I finish, just quickly mentioning on t-shirts. on elonbits.com I'll be live on The Daily live warrenredlick.locals.com in about five minutes uh the stainless steel water bottles merch also on elonbitz.com I wear these t-shirts all the time I wear these water bottles all the time they're incredible, that company that delivers is slow, they are slower than slow, they are going to tell you, it will be a month, they are going tobe two months I'm just prepared for it things are worth it I love this material I love this shirt I use them all the time I love the stainless steel water bottle I use them all the time but they are very slow and I apologize for that now , I just got that out of the way um Okay, I think that's all I wanted to cover, so always film the police, yeah, check out my book, if we're going to talk about criminal topics, check out my book at the link in the description below.

Fair DUI um, I got arrested once. after this and without being arrested and a lot of things are happening that are not in the book, but I think to understand what is happening now, DUI cases will become irrelevant. This is the beautiful thing about driverless cars and robot taxis, it's all of this. what I'm talking about now speeding tickets are going to go away, drunk driving is going to go away, driving with a suspended license is going to go away, uninsured drivers are going to go away, there are so many problems happening on the roads. , so many problems that happen on the roads that all traffic accidents are going to disappear personal injury law when cars stop crashing the world will improve a lot now I have a friend as a personal injury lawyer and I was telling him what Robo taxes are like The world is going to change and there will be fewer car accidents and he looked very depressed this is one of the shocking things.

I have a friend who is a marijuana lawyer. I told him we should legalize marijuana. He smokes marijuana and says no, we shouldn't legalize it. marijuana I make too much money defending marijuana cases um and he's still my friend he said he was joking later so it's okay I want to thank everyone who brought us not City the girl's not in shape you must have waived, thanks Seinfeld, okay. I'm going to wrap up now in about five minutes I'm going to start with the daily lie uh Link in the description below um it's hot just go to warrenredlick.locals.com or check the description below and watch that video We'll be talking about the fentanyl crisis , the war on drugs, uh, what's called the iron law prohibition and I think I'll make a video.

I want to thank you for the chat. I'm going to make a video about orange juice, so this will be fun, let's get excited, uh, I was going to say, are you ready, let's go, but check out my other videos? Please support me on the local platform on patreoner YouTube channel member check out the merch at elonbitz.com uh thank you like this video share and subscribe thank you. you to Mark pathochnic Mark plot and any other moderators that are there that I missed uh and you all have