Coronavirus global risk raised to ‘very high’ as first British person dies

a spreading virus grounded planes trade stagnation and even sporting events canceled inevitably markets are falling but the sell-off has become the worst week since the

global

financial crisis more than a decade ago smiles at the opening bell in New York prices of shares plummeted seconds later, a week ago they were at their

high

est in London, the hundred largest companies are worth a staggering £210 billion less than they were just seven days ago. I would say this is probably the most dramatic week I have seen since my The weather here in the markets is so bad, yes, what the London trading floors say they are witnessing is a

global

contagion.

Well, we have truly seen investor panic take over markets around the world. We have seen the largest point drop in the Dow in its history. We have seen three trillion dollars erased from global markets in one week and it is not just the stock markets this extends to other markets, we have also seen a major drop in the oil markets, it is now in correction territory correction territory talk of traders for a 10% drop and you are talking about oil, one of the most in-demand commodities in the world, the last time the markets behaved like this, the 2008 financial crisis, this is another Black Swan event, something that no one could have predicted and that is why we are We see a lot of panic in the markets and the

risk

is that that extends to a recession and there are no reassuring words coming from global institutions.

We are likely to lower our growth projections for the world in Geneva. He should establish, not dismantle. but the Motor Show has been canceled 600,000 visitors and hundreds of car manufacturers have been told to stay home. The fear is that the effects of the virus are crippling commerce and tourism and setting back markets. Only now can stocks fall before the question arises whether governments and central banks need to step in and take any action. In the US, there is already speculation that the Federal Reserve could be preparing to cut interest rates. Possible pressure on the Bank of England to do the same, but interest rates are already

very

low, so low that they don't have much left to do, so what effect will further cuts really have?

Rates are zero or negative in some countries, so they don't have much room to maneuver, but the market expects central banks to exit. Cut rates and assure investors that e

very

thing is fine, but the type of policy that will be most useful and most effective in this situation is fiscal policy. More specific measures to help companies. The areas that are most affected. Specific measures in China include the expansion of large state-owned enterprises. loans to businesses to keep them afloat tonight the government here said they are well prepared for any effect

coronavirus

may have on the UK economy, although investors seem less confident and none have a crystal ball as the

first

British deaths and the

first

cases in Northern Ireland and Wales.

Boris Johnson said tonight that

coronavirus

is the government's top priority. He said he discussed the UK's preparedness with the health secretary and chief medical officer, but he will not chair an emergency meeting on cobra until Monday. The reach of the virus is spreading rapidly. nearly 60 countries reporting cases World Health Organization says it could reach most, if not all, countries today Nigeria New Zealand Lithuania Mexico and Iceland reported their first cases now most people who have died from the infection have been in mainland China with almost 3,000 deaths outside China, Iran, the south and Italy have had the

high

est number of victims here. 20 people have been diagnosed with the disease.

Four more in the last 24 hours. Here is our health correspondent, Victoria MacDonald, after the coronavirus epidemic. the Diamond Princess cruise ship and wonder what lessons can be learned so far six people who were on board have died, including a Briton who has yet to be identified, while more than 700 passengers and contracted crew members boarded 19 there have been scathing reports about the measures quarantine of officials sent to investigators was docked in Yokohama, they themselves fell ill and inadequate testing, but lessons will be learned today around the world. The World Health Organization said 49 countries have reported cases. Our epidemiologists have been monitoring these developments continuously and we have now increased our assessment of the

risk

of spread and the risk of the impact of corvid 19 being buried globally.

This is a message from the WHO that says: Wake up, prepare yourselves, this virus may be on its way and you have a duty to your citizens. and to the world to be ready, perhaps a message to Iran, where there are concerns that the number of infected and dead is much higher than officially claimed. Now they have closed parliament and then the Shiite holy city of calm, the center of the outbreak. We are using what one source told us were chemical defense vehicles from the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, this time to disinfect against this virulent virus until now, given the numbers from the previous day, it has confirmed that 388 people have covered 19 in the country.

Unfortunately, 34 people have died from this disease as of noon today. However, some sources have told us that the death toll is much higher and that is worrying. There have already been 97 cases exported from Iran to 11 countries in the UK, where 19 people have now been confirmed. With the disease there have been warnings that if the situation worsens, mass gatherings may have to be canceled or schools closed In any preparation for a pandemic, the government has broken the fine line between protecting the public and social consequences, so that adults on the London Underground feel they have sometimes been lied to by the NHS.

It is being prepared and details are being published little by little, but in an extraordinary interview the MP for the City and Westminster revealed today that contingency plans in London include the opening of a mortuary in Hyde Park. The intense absence has been on the Prime Minister until today, when perhaps responding to the criticisms he made for the first time. I called an emergency meeting about Cobra, although not until Monday, and then tonight I was asked about the death of the Diamond Princess. He said this. I think we were following the best medical advice and obviously we regret everything.

We are very sorry for the loss of individual concern life, but you know we think the best thing to do is not to move people too much in the current situation and not to repatriate them unless you can be absolutely sure that there will be no spread nor contagion. to this country, so that is the principle we are adopting. Evidence from China shows that those most at risk of dying from this virus are men over 80 with pre-existing health conditions. It is also true that 80 percent of people will have mild or no symptoms and can recover at home and the hope, although increasingly fragile, is that this epidemic can still be well contained.

We've heard about the impact all of this is having on the markets, so joining me now from south-west London is Lord O'Neill, former chief economist at Goldman Sachs, who served as commercial secretary to the Treasury in David Cameron's government and published a book Superbacteria and the arms race against bacteria. Lord O'Neill's global shares had their worst week since the financial crisis. Our investors are right. scared, do you think it's okay if they just spend the last 10 minutes listening to your argument like I have? I guess there are many reasons to be scared. Obviously it is a very worrying and complex situation.

I think before Sony responds more. I think it's important to remember. that from a global economic perspective this occurred at an extremely unfortunate time because as recently as December January we were seeing some signs of vague stabilization of the global economy after what had been a somewhat worrying weakening throughout 2019, with China already in the center of that weakening and Some countries that are so economically successful in benefiting from the rise of China, like Germany here in Europe or Japan in Asia, South Korea are already suffering from that too, so this from an economic perspective is particularly unfortunate and of course I'm sure you will.

As we have mentioned in previous debates, China today represents five times the proportion of global GDP that it had when we had SARS 17 years ago, so the World Bank should also intervene to try to prevent a global recession and alleviate it now. In their view, it's inevitable, so I imagine there must have been some very interesting phone calls between the so-called G20 Sherpas, which are the officials of the world's top 20 economies, about being ready to act. It is not clear to me and I listened to one of your previous speakers: it is not clear to me what reducing interest rates would mean in the slightest in a situation like this and, in fact, it is partly related to other challenges of our time, but particularly with issues that have to do with equality and real perceptions and More measures on interest rates or so-called quantitative easing I don't think they are especially sensible or useful, in my opinion, social bonds that provide liquidity, but well, our financial leaders around the world are a little bit helpless in the face of this situation quite an unknown threat so I think that can provide a lot of liquidity to ensure that the financial markets function properly and in some countries the central bank can play a role to help ensure that the landing support is there, but well, I hope this accelerates what in some countries, including the UK, appears to be a growing recognition that they can have a more active fiscal policy, especially in terms of investment spending, and I think whether it's Germany or China, to name just three really important places, the arguments in favor of having a more aggressive domestic fiscal policy response is very clear to me and I hope that's what happens now, so that governments invest more by borrowing more.

I would say the argument for that is actually stronger, one of the other aspects of what is happening in the markets this week is a dramatic new drop in long-term bond yields so that governments can borrow. extraordinary historically low rates for a very long term into the future and so if it was time to do things like that to invest in infrastructure many of the current things that they have on their program every other night and then some, this is a particularly opportune time to perhaps even be more ambitious about those things than you might have been thinking just two or three weeks ago.

In my opinion, you had your hands on the levers of power in the government from the outside, now looking in, do you think the government has control of this crisis? Do you think they seem to be doing well? It is very difficult to try. Pretend to have an expert opinion on something like this in particular if you're not an invention specialist, but what would you say in its defense so far. I look at all sorts of numbers on this every day, so far the infection rate in the UK is still very low relative to countries we might consider as our peers, for example in France, I think this is close, if not It is more than double the number of registered infections.

Germany even more than that, so far we seem to be doing well and I think it's also been discussed earlier where the center of the spread has been here, it's been indicated and recognized quite quickly. I miss this balance between all the scammers in China or making sure we are prepared is what they have to keep checking every day and until now. I think they're doing the best they can, but it's obviously a very unpredictable and worrying time for everyone. Lord O'Neill, thank you very much for joining us. We asked the Department of Health and Public Health England for an interview, but no one responded. available in any of those organizations.

However, I have been speaking to Anna Subra, the former MP who lost her seat in the last election and was a minister in the Department of Health itself. I began by asking her if she was surprised that the Prime Minister had not yet chaired a Cobra meeting on the corona virus. I wish I could say I was surprised but I'm afraid I think this is absolutely in Boris Johnson's character and I think he has a woeful understanding of the realities of how people are looking at this problem how they need guidance how we need to ensure that our NHS be prepared and he needed and she could have controlled this and your government should have done the same a considerable time ago the government says youI know there have been weekly Cobra meetings going on, they just haven't involved the Prime Minister and that Public Health England is meeting with the relevant departments, so they are saying there is a lot going on behind the scenes and maybe doing more in public would cause panic. people, right?

No, it's not about doing things in public, forgive me, it's about making sure you handle what is undoubtedly a very serious situation. Cobra is the most, as I know I was involved with Cobra when I was Health Minister and When I was Business Minister, what it does is it brings together the people who should be meeting at the highest level, you literally sit them around the phone or at the same table, control the situation and solve the problem. messages and one of the really important things in all these circumstances is the lack of a good community with people, so many people panic, are worried and need to be given good, sensible and easily accessible data and advice, and then that starts to calm everything down. while ensuring that all the other pieces of the puzzle you need to get NHS social services up and running, all of those things are being done in case the government had taken steps to repatriate British citizens on board the Diamond.

Princess cruise before Do you think of course I should do it and what about Tenerife and what is happening there in the area where I live? In the East Midlands we have schools that give conflicting information to parents and when people start getting that information like they done on the Internet through social networking sites, it is understandable that with all kinds of information and misinformation people don't know what to believe. and they are worried and they are planning and they spoke to me very calmly before. Well, President Raman predicted that one day the coronavirus will disappear, claiming it is like a miracle, but other US officials warned that the country should prepare for a significant disruption to daily life. we go live now with our correspondent in Washington she won candy Siobhan explain please well Kathy you just have to look at the screens here the red screens to understand what is happening Americans have clearly gone into panic mode investors are listening to the news of new viruses new outbreaks around the world and they are listening to companies like Apple, Microsoft and Amazon, who are warning that demand is falling, supply chains are already starting to clog and that will hurt their profits and if it does, it will affect the health of not just Kathy, the American economy, but the entire global economy and that is why we are seeing the Dow Jones and other major stock markets continue to fall today;

They're on track for their worst weekly performance since 2008, of course, the man who woke up this morning probably choking on his cornflakes when he saw the red screens. It was Donald Trump. We know that he has bet this part of his future re-election campaign on the strength and health of the American economy, so if it begins to falter, so might his campaign, particularly if there is a sense that he and his administration simply cannot They have done enough to combat the threat of the virus enough, which is why he has been criticized here and that is why he took to Twitter today to criticize Democrats for trying to politicize, the virus story says and that is why that his chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, speaking at a conference today outside DC, tried to suggest that journalists were only covering the story of this global virus outbreak because of the damage they thought it could cause to President Trump, let's hear what I had to say, the reason you're skipping, why they're paying so much attention to it today is because they think this is going to be the thing that brings down the president, that's what it's all about.

I received a note today. from a from a from a reporter said what are you going to do today to calm the market, so really what he could do today to calm the markets is tell people to turn off their televisions for 24 hours, well, administration, and he there I might listen clearly, trying to downplay things, but the disease experts here keep saying that a further outbreak is inevitable. As for a vaccine, scientists here say yes, work is underway, but it will take at least a year to a year and a half. Cathy before that vaccine can be used for widespread inoculations and that's another thing that the markets here really don't like, that there is no sense that this crisis is over.

Sean, thank you very much.