Is a Recession Coming? I React to Chris Hogan's Video | Phil Town

Hey guys, I'm Phil Town from Roland Investing and today I'll be

react

ing to a

video

that was recently posted by another YouTuber, Chris Hogan, where in the

video

he shares his thoughts on whether or not we'll see a stock market. that's going to crash in the near future and what should you think about with that in mind, guys, is the stock market going to crash in 2020? That's a really interesting question, in fact, it's a question we're hearing more about. and more people are worried and if you follow my channel you may have seen my recent video where I talked about some of my thoughts on the topic and then I saw Chris Hogan and saw that he had posted his own video about the stock market crash and I just had to take a look, pretty interesting stuff.

Chris has some really great content on his YouTube channel and is clearly very knowledgeable. I really like the way he thinks about investments. I really respect him a lot and I respect the ideas. The fact that you are posting the strategies and tips you share are very good advice for a lot of people, but it doesn't necessarily mean that I agree with everything Chris has to say, so when I saw this video on his channel, I wanted to share some of my thoughts with you in real time, so let's take a look. I like this section, it's fun, okay, here we go to any place where I can have some kind of real conversation with you.

Well, everyone knows I'm always true, but this is about something new that says a market crash is

coming

. Now I listen. I'm talking about people who are afraid to do anything because they fear a fall is

coming

. I mean, people fear that a fall is coming. It's coming for a good reason, I mean, this isn't going to come to light anywhere, you know, just out of the blue, Chris, it's coming because we've had market crashes with enormous regularity, to the point that Ben Graham, who started the investment strategy we all use. I taught since the 1930s that basically these are normal market fluctuations;

In other words, a market crash is part of the normal way the market works, so when you haven't had a market crash for a world record period of time, you know we're working on the 10th year now, it's not crazy to think this could happen at any moment so let's see how Chris goes on this you know growth is happening and things are going well so they're like what Chris wait cause Chicken Little is coming okay I don't know you guys, but I've seen this show, my kids made me watch that movie, it's funny, it made me break out, but people act like that, the sky is falling or at some point it's going to happen, well yeah, because at some point it will. will, there's no doubt about it, although the reason people don't want to talk about the fact that the market goes through these cycles is that they don't know how to predict them. cycles that no one really does, I certainly don't and I'm not here to pretend that I do, so I think one of the

react

ions is where Chris is going here.

I'll have to see, but one of the reactions that is very common is to just stay the course, no one can predict the ups and downs, so stay the course. I had a great discussion right before the last big market crash in 2007. I was on CNBC and Maria Bartiromo at the Federal Reserve building live during the shutdown. bell and the guy who runs Keplinger magazine was like, hey, you know, nobody knows, so you've got to stay the course, and in the meantime, every signal I get is screaming to get out of the market, so I did and I was out of the market. for about a year and a half and then I came back after he messed up after he crashed 50 percent so I'm pretty aware that this happens and it happens with great regularity so let's see what Chris is doing here now.

I want to address this. two parts, the first part is that fear is a real thing, but you don't want to let fear control you. You see, if fear controls you, then all the actions you take, all the things you do, are based on What is the right thing to do, but what if this and these and so many on money, Chris, a big kiss on that fear, is the real big problem with people investing in the stock market because the stock market can have so many ups and downs and be so volatile and that's why people go crazy?

I'm afraid, unlike, say, real estate, where you don't really expect that condo you bought and are running out of may drop 50 percent next year, and it will do so regularly, then it will go up for Allah. is going to fall, that doesn't happen in markets where they are not as volatile, but the market trades all the time, there is so much liquidity which means you can get in and out very easily and every day, mr. The market is shouting prices at you to buy or sell your stocks and what that creates is a lot of fear, especially at this stage of the market, and you're right, you don't want fear to control you and, again, a way to deal with that. that and this is the common way that is taught everywhere and I think Chris is an advocate of just not changing what you are doing, continuing to invest in the market and regularly holding the companies that you are buying or if the companies that are not buying They stick with the indices they are buying and in the long run that will work out very well.

Well, let's see what, let's see, so we totally agree about fear and in fact, I would say it's fear. the market that allows me to do what I do as an investor I buy the fear and what he's talking about is don't sell the fear don't sell the fear so let's see where he listens I say don't live that The way life is too short I want us to live in a defined meaning. I'm going to be very clear if you are following the path I am teaching you. You are getting out of debt. You are building an emergency fund. looking at the emergency fund is fun and if the car doesn't start well go to the dealer's fund get a good battery well, what happens if something in the house breaks?

Well, you've never had two companies, you fix one very definitive. What you're talking about, we have a very defined strategy for investing and I completely agree with that and I think we probably have two different strategies for investing and one strategy is going to be, I think, something that the vast majority of people are going to use. you would probably think that is a decent strategy and that is what is taught everywhere you buy, you stay the course, you keep investing no matter what, because in the long run the market goes up and that is a really good strategy, but it has a limitation .

That's hard to talk about if you don't have a lot of money if someone is advising you on how to achieve financial freedom or financial independence not having a lot of money makes it very difficult to make sense of that purchasing strategy "Wait, don't do anything because you're guaranteed a market rate of return and what that means over the last 120 years is that the stock market goes up about four and a half to five percent a year and also if you just hold on, you'll get some dividends, so which you will earn between six and a half to seven percent, and any financial advisor who is worth his money and knows what he is doing would not feel so comfortable projecting a much higher interest rate.

The return on the stock market will be what you're going to get in the long run, and that's knowing that and knowing that you don't have a lot of money, can you achieve financial independence on that path while still living a life and at the same time providing for your kids? through college while still living in a good neighborhood, buy the biggest house, have some aspirations, know that a nice, good quality life you can or you may have to save every penny you have and live your whole life as if you The only thing that mattered was what happens when you're 65, so I have a different view on this, but let's see where it goes first.

Totally agree, amazing emergency fund, you should do that, listen to Chris, okay, but when it comes to investments, I'm not trying to what- I'm trying to definitely and anyone who knows and has been around me , my first book was inspired by retiring, it came out in 2016 and it was a number one bestseller because what it was doing was calling America to wake up about retirement: that the government is not going to save the day, of course, Social Security It won't be enough for you to live your dream, not when average payments are around thirteen hundred dollars a month, you're kidding, average mortgage payments are around fifteen hundred dollars a month times twelve hundred in certain areas, so right.

The government is not going to save the day when Social Security is rapidly approaching bankruptcy and we are ending up with basically fewer people working per retired person than ever before in history, so we shouldn't count on Social Security, which What's likely to happen is They will keep raising the age before you can start receiving Social Security each year and they raise it so the system lasts a few more years, so when you know you're 45 you'll know you're talking 20 years from now. You could probably count on not getting Social Security until you're 70 and I don't know if they'll really be able to pay what they're paying now even with the cost of living, so I'll see what happens, I mean, but don't count on it, basically, I think that's a really good thing that Chris is saying there and he has definitions, yes, but I have a different set of definitions.

I'm really looking at what he means by The line of definition is that no, I'm not going to let someone else dictate my future for me, you see, that was addressing that that that mentality and that fear, that's why I said people need a plan, they need to take action, they need to understand what their goal is, and that was the whole retirement thing, it inspired the intelligent quotient of retirees, our IQ, which by the way, if you haven't done yours, is a free tool on my website

chris

hogan

360 com that helps you get started with your dream, but Then we move on to the tactical side of how much you're going to need for retirement.

You see, I was finding people with worse fears of not having enough or not being able to do it at all because they didn't have it. We have a goal and the goal of our IQ was to help people aim their gaze very quickly. What is it? You start with your dream and then you put Hey, How? How much will you live per month during your retirement? Have you ever thought about it? about that, yeah, how much per month and then and how many years you plan to retire and then you enter how much you currently have saved.

Are IQ will show you your big number so you can start taking action in your daily life. numbers right now, okay, let's see where Chris goes next because I have to tell you this is really sobering when you start looking at, you know, live your dream right now, if you're 45 years old, you're planning to retire at 65. I can tell you how The first one looks like if you're planning on living a $50,000 a year lifestyle plus whatever you get from Social Security, then the average is twelve thousand thirteen fifteen sixteen thousand something like that, so let's say the general lifestyle you want.

Living is a sixty to sixty-five thousand dollar lifestyle that is living your dream in retirement. What would you need to have in your retirement account 20 years from now assuming current inflation rates or historical inflation rates and current rates of return in the market? or historical rates of return on the bottom line is I hope you're sitting down. I don't know what Chris's calculator says, but I can tell you what mine says, and mine says you're going to need about two million dollars, and if you're 45 years old, now you have $50,000 in a wallet, how do you go from fifty thousand? dollars to two million dollars in the next two years?, you know, without getting a much better job and no one has the answer for that, etc. you're investing fifty thousand dollars right now saving maybe twelve thousand dollars a year and if you were able to do that you're not going to get anywhere near two million dollars, the math just doesn't work not at six and a half seven percent a year isn't, so you're going to need a higher rate of return and that's where Chris says you need a defined plan, you need to know what your goal is, but I think those goals will help you get sober. very fast and I prefer to see you think in different terms I prefer to see you think about I don't want to change my beautiful life in the future I want to be financially free I want to be independent to be able to do the same things that I want and if you are like me you don't mind working because I like it work I'm going to work all my life but I also want to do what I want to do and I want to do it when I want to do it and for that I need a certain amount of money and to get to that certain amount of money from where you are now I think it could be really valuable to be able to learning to do what guys like Warren Buffett Ben Graham Charlie Munger Mohnish Pabrai guy Spier has been teaching me how to be a great investor, so instead of being a definite planner, just save a certain amount of money and it makes the market do what the market does, which would be about 7% annually.

Instead, you have a different plan and that different plan is muchBetter in terms of the fear factor that Chris was talking about, than just praying and hoping this market comes back after it drops next time, right? I mean, that's what you have to do. I hope we don't do it like that Buffett doesn't do it like that The best investors in the world don't do it like that what they do is be patient and wait in cash for an economic storm so Chris is saying everyone is watching the clouds are getting cloudy great we want let it cloud over we want an economic storm that will rain gold and we are going to have some cash right there to buy these wonderful companies that are going to go on sale, so first we have to raise some cash and then we need to know which companies to buy , which takes a little bit of learning, but it's not rocket science and the difference between just buy and hold and stay and forever in terms of your emotions and the fear that you have.

Feeling and coming out as a very good investor is day and night. I mean, I said we buy fear, you can imagine if everyone else is scared even though they're holding on and they're holding on, they're holding on, they're still. scared, everyone else is scared and you're sitting there saying, man, this is the best thing that's ever happened to me, we're going to get rich, what a big difference, so let's go ahead and see what the rest of them are, so VIP, This is the deal. I'm not worried about a market crash, you know? I have my life

recession

-proofed, right?

You get out of debt and you get an emergency fund, you have a cushion and I'm sorry, I'm telling you, bring it, go, go, go get it. on the site there will be some ups and downs, look I just did the opposite, look at me there will be ups and downs, but if I have my seat belt on I know I can ride that ride and my boy, okay let's leave it there. I love that the

recession

has shown its life by having an emergency fund for that by having a plan by having a portfolio that you know is going to execute the plan that you know at the minute of the day.

He's going to come up with that plan. I would just say Chris, we could move to another level, we and certainly not everyone is willing to learn what you need to learn to do this, but we could move to another level where that level says "I." Not only am I not worried about a recession, I'm just camped out waiting for it to happen because when it does I'll be able to buy amazing $10 bills for $5.00 all day. I have collected free money from the ground. and it's everywhere the last time we were there with this was in 2008-2009.

We were able to pick up an incredible amount of free money there, where I essentially love what Mohnish Pabrai says is essentially like getting a free lottery ticket. you're getting these companies so cheap that you can't lose and some of them are going to go straight through the roof. Warren Buffett once said that you need four companies in your life and if you buy 20 in total and you get four that do well, be very, very tasty, so I love everything Chris says. I think if you become a one rule investor, if you follow what Warren Buffett does, what do all these great investors do that has made them billionaires into billionaires if you follow that way of thinking basically looking outward waiting for these opportunities in a recession buying $10 bills from five dollars, you will get rich a lot faster and you will understand that Chris would love it if you could do it with that, guys.

I'll give Chris a big hug, I'll shout good job and I'll use his website, I'll use his tools and then I'll see if the time frame he has in which he wants to get to financial independence used to speed up a little bit. you might be thinking about spending some time, as a rule a student learns how to do this well and achieves financial independence sooner than you thought, so now I would love to hear from you, do you think the markets will crash in 2020? and leave a comment below with his response and I'll be sure to follow along and thanks for watching now go play.

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