How Putin ruined relations with his biggest ally | Diane Francis

This is a very unequal Federation controlled by an elite in Moscow and St. Petersburg, it cannot last and therefore what many of us hope and some people are doing is trying to reinforce these sovereignty movements, some are already on the way , like Cheta. They have tried to get out of bloody wars twice, they will leave once it is weakened and I think you will see others break away and I think China will come after us. We are speaking as US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is visiting China on his second visit. After last June trying to ease tensions, he is expected to express deep concerns about China's aid to Russia's defense industrial base.

How far does China's support go? They have Intel, which is pretty significant, but it's at the edges where they're not shipping weapons. They are not sending bullets, they are not sending missiles or drones, but what they are sending are the underlying mechanisms, some of the technology that is required for their defense industry in Russia and that they do not have the capacity to produce themselves, that is worrying. . We are also making annoying cheats, for example reports that they are labeling as scrap containers full of copper and copper is very useful for the defense industry in Russia.

Of course, they have been collaborators just like India throughout the war. buying oil from Russia in large quantities and I think they should pay taxes for doing so, and also from India. Anthony Blinkin has pointed out that China cannot have good

relations

with Europe and other countries and at the same time fuel the

biggest

threat to European countries. security since the end of the Cold War, how much longer do you think China will be able to play both sides? I think, having been trapped here and there, I think they will back off immediately. I think they will stop him.

Remember that China depends on customers in Europe. and the United States and customers are not happy with them and any headline that talks about it. I mean, the fact that they got caught cheating when they promised not to help the war effort is probably why Tik Tock has been banned in the United States. America, I mean, this is the kind of rejection you're going to get and it could be worse than that and then there's a lot of relocation and that kind of stuff. CH and China have serious economic problems. They did a terrible job managing themselves, so I don't think China's problem in this war is an economic war rather than an outright military war, but you also write in a recent article about Russia. that, uh, China is Bing, it's time, um, what are you waiting for?

What do you think it looks like? China was put in a terrible position, uh, if you remember, they had had an Olympics that they were very proud of in 2022 and just a few days before the grand opening. o closing ceremony I forgot uh Putin went there and got her to sign a lasting friendship for life without telling her three days later that he was going to genocid

ally

invade her neighboring country uh he never told her that this was enormously embarrassing, he prepared him for that and that's it you know, I think he is as consistent as he can be, he also does business, he re

ally

needs the energy he gets from Russia for his economy, he has economic problems, what do I mean by them waiting, they are waiting, they are waiting? on the sidelines, but they are very involved in what will happen to Russia after all this is over and many of us and I have been writing quite a bit in my substack speculating that you know once the center can't stand what happened in 1989, 90 in Russia in Moscow, if they lose the war, then the Moscow elite, whoever replaces Putin, will not be able to retain 11 time zones of the nation;

It is too big and vast a country now in the far east. It is Manchuria, which was only stolen from China 200 years ago by AAR. They want to take back Manchuria and they will take it back the moment there is weakness, they will not necessarily send troops, but they will move politically to take influence and control. So what is the doomsday scenario for the Russian Federation? How do you see it in the worst case scenario? Not because he's talking about some kind of collapse of the Federation that mirrors the collapse of the Soviet Union. Well, that's what happened in this case. the Soviet Union, all of its republics, starting with Ukraine, broke away from 15 of them and now you have many republics within the remaining Russian Federation and I have printed many maps etc., there are the Turks and the Turkish organization. of States issued a statement a few years ago that there are 10 autonomous sovereign Turkish States within the Russian Federation that should be independent so that you get that kind of pressure, ethnic pressure, they have been mistreated, their living standards are terrible, the people in Moscow. and St.

Petersburg, your children are not being recruited for war, but ethnic groups in the Mongol and Turkish areas and in the central Asian areas of Russia are being recruited and you know that this is a very unequal Federation controlled by a elite in Moscow and St. Petersburg cannot last and, therefore, what many of us hope and some people are doing is trying to reinforce these sovereignty movements. Some are already on their way, like Cheta, they have tried to leave two bloody wars. They will leave once it has weakened uh and I think you will see others separate and I think China will swoop in and where they will launch and how will Manchuria Manchuria happen, which would also give vladas shares and sackin island that is full of oil or gas, I mean Obviously this all depends on what happens with the war in Ukraine and it's far from a fact, it's speculation at this point. x uh I don't think they ever talk about that uh I think what she has done is distance herself uh yes they have had Summits and so on but he has said publicly a couple of years ago don't even think about the use of nuclear weapons and it is also illegal to invade another sovereign nation, so he has said those two things officially, but he has to tread carefully because he needs the energy and his own and he has a lot of problems in his in his own eternal economy, I mean, he let the matter of assets roots got out of control and of course the rejection of their Association and their threats towards Taiwan have resulted and covid resulted in many factories moving to India and returning to Europe. and North America outside of China has problems um a recent report in the Financial Times newspaper here in the UK pointed out um it pointed out the complete distrust of the Russian military towards China dating back to 2008 with these leaked documents that described the exercises it was carrying out.

Your army. preparing for a possible invasion of China, so obviously they were taking this so seriously back then, and those fears, do you think? I mean what is the Russian position towards China right now. I think they hope to stay. in the background and stay passively reminds China, the border between Russia and China has been the subject of wars for Los Angeles for many decades. They've been fighting over all this and you know that manua menuria menuria was stolen 200 years ago. by the Tsar and then you know, I think Russia, China plays a waiting game. I think it's G playing a waiting game with Taiwan, he's not going to take advantage and keep Taiwan.

What I think is misunderstood in Taiwan is that yeah, sure, I'd like to know, grab it because it's very prosperous and full of ethnic Han Chinese people, but you know, the point is that they can't take on the United States, Britain , Australia and the rest of Asia, have a huge Navy in the region should not occupy and seize Taiwan because they completely depend on the sea routes remaining open and there are many disputes along the Route, they have to get oil from Europe and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, they have to ship their stuff that they manufacture in the same direction they have to keep the sea lanes open and I think they have a very large Navy apparently larger than the United States in number of ships, not in size, at the just like Great Britain.

Britain was a trading nation, it was an empire that had to have a big Navy to move around in, so I think that's, I think that's, I think China is, as a NATO official said a few years ago. China is a competitor. Russia is an enemy. You've been watching Frontline for several times on the radio. My thanks to Lou Sykes. our producer to support the work of Front Line, press the Subscribe button. You can also listen to Times Radio all day or read it on Times.co.uk. Thanks for watching, bye.