Could Japan’s navy stand up to China’s? Analysis of the current Japanese Navy

China has approximately seven nuclear-powered attack submarines. Nuclear submarines are generally more capable than conventional ones, as they can remain submerged for months if necessary. While going five or ten times faster. That's why they are tactically more useful. That said, modern conventional submarines can be just as quiet and have such advanced sonars and torpedoes. China operates just under 50 conventional submarines, of varying ages and capabilities. The B and C variants of its 039 class are modern and roughly comparable to newer Japanese conventional submarines. Submarines are also an area where Japan plans high production rates. Future taigei submarines are manufactured 1 ship per year.

So far 5 more Taigeis are planned. To replace the Oyashio class. As for ships, planned future hulls include 8 more mogami frigates, at a rather unusual rate for Japan: up to 2 ships per year. But it seems that's just the beginning. Afterwards, another 12 frigates, probably even slightly larger, will be built at a breakneck pace. All 12 were acquired over a period of 5 years. Mogami and its successor aim to end up being one of the most produced designs in Japan. To replace all older and lower-end ship classes. All this shows that Japan is trying to keep up with China. Although, once again, without the United States it cannot do it alone.

As far as mid-sized boats go, no announcements have been made about more hulls yet. But larger destroyers, equipped with aegis, are already planned. Construction of two more general-purpose anti-aircraft destroyers will soon begin. Possibly derived from Mayan design. And, as is known, two other very large destroyers equipped with aegis will also be manufactured, but optimized for their function of defense against ballistic missiles. Although ideas were previously considered that these ships would displace 20,000 tons, it seems that those plans have finally been stopped. About 12,000 tons are mentioned. Still, they are supposed to have 128 VLS cells, and probably more than half are dedicated to ballistic missile interceptors.

BMD destroyers have a broader role, which goes beyond the mere

navy

. They must protect all of Japan and all of its military, not just the

navy

. Unlike terminal-stage interceptors, which the Japanese military also has, mid-course interception against intermediate-range ballistic missiles can only be carried out by large missiles such as the SM-3, deployed by destroyers. Previously, Japan decided not to build   protection sites on land. Possibly because shipboard platforms would have a better chance of survival in a war. Speaking of missiles, those are important components of any modern navy. Anti-aircraft missiles have already been mentioned, but Japan and China still use anti-ship missiles on many of their ships.

Many Japanese ships still use the Type 90 anti-ship missile. Which is generally similar to the American harpoon, although somewhat more modern, due to its 1990 vintage. Later, starting in 2015, an improved design was implemented, first in coastal launchers and then, a few years ago, also on some ships, such as the type 17. Being a modern missile, it has satellite guidance in addition to its advanced radar, and can receive waypoints and be redirected in flight. Future variants of the missile are also planned, further increasing its range. While Japan also has a modern supersonic anti-ship missile, the ASM-3, it is not technically present in its navy.

Rather, it is used by aircraft serving within the Japanese air force. Future Japanese missiles include the aforementioned SM-6, from the United States. In addition to a new surface to send missiles. It is still in the research phase and prototypes are not expected before the end of the decade. But it is likely to be a stealth, subsonic cruise missile, somewhat similar to the American LRASM. A range of about 1,200 miles has been mentioned as a requirement. The SM-6 will also be a welcome addition, as it can basically serve as a small guided ballistic missile against moving targets. By comparison, the Chinese navy

current

ly uses a wide variety of anti-ship missiles.

From small, helicopter-mounted ones to advanced but larger harpoon analogues, such as the YJ-83. They are mainly used on older frigates and destroyers. A small number of destroyers carry large, heavy Why-jay-12 supersonic missiles. As a replacement for the huge Soviet Moskit missiles of the 1980s, newer Chinese destroyers use the Why-jay 18 anti-ship missile. Which is a variant of the Russian 3m-54 concept with a terminal-stage supersonic warhead. China is also likely to use what has been called the Why Jay 21 anti-ship ballistic missile. Returning to air-to-air missiles, the Japanese navy is also developing a new SAM system. Based on the Army Type 3, but with a redesign and added reinforcement.

Its range is likely to exceed 100 kilometers. Enough to replace the SM-2 missiles on your destroyers. Currently its name is A-SAM,   before receiving a proper designation. Japan also plans to expand its fleet of landing ships. Currently, immediate plans call for an additional landing ship with a cargo capacity of 2,000 tons. This points to a ship the size of the American Frank Besson class, for example. Some smaller landing craft are planned alongside it. Almost a decade ago there was a desire to buy a large LHD from the USA. Nothing came of it. possibly due to lack of space in American shipbuilding or the fact that such American ships displace 40,000 tons, too much for

current

Japanese needs.

Japan never really cultivated a dedicated amphibious unit, due to post-war politics. Only in 2018 was the first Marine brigade formed, but under the command of the Army. However, around 2019 the Navy was expected to submit a request for a smaller landing helicopter. Supposedly about 20 thousand tons. But so far nothing seems to materialize. Other plans also call for 12 large offshore patrol vessels. Armed with only a small weapon, but capable of operating a Seahawk helicopter. Such a class of vessel would relieve larger ships to some extent of mundane patrol duties. All those ships and missiles cost quite a bit. But Japan has been increasing its defense spending.

While increases to Japan's navy budget are not available, overall plans to increase Japan's military budget are known. After initial announcements of nearly doubling the budget, the new five-year spending plan was recently announced. From 2023 to 2027, 320 billion dollars are planned. Compared to the previous five years, from 2019 to 2023, this represents an increase of 56 percent. The publication Military Balance 2023 and the SIPRI institute estimate that the part of that salary that the navy will receive will represent between 32 and 33 percent of the future total, the average annual defense spending, which is 60 billion dollars. As far as naval aviation is concerned, the Japanese navy operates helicopters, aircraft dedicated to anti-submarine warfare, and some surveillance and transport aircraft.

Anti-submarine assets are an area in which Japan manages to eclipse China, with more than double the number of aircraft of this type and more helicopters for anti-submarine tasks. Domestic jet-powered P1 aircraft are replacing older US-sourced Orions. While the locally made Seahawks, manufactured under licence, have arrived at a new generation K variant. Interestingly, those new Seahawks won't replace the previous J variants one for one. Instead, a greater number of Sea Guardian drones will be purchased in the future. These are already operated by Japan's coast guard. Other aircraft include electronic signal collection aircraft, transport aircraft, as well as various search and rescue aircraft and helicopters.

Including the shinmaywa seaplane. As we can see, the Japanese navy is struggling to keep up with China's naval development, all on its own. Of course, realistically, it doesn't have to be that way, since the United States will be there. But even so, it still holds its own in some areas. And if a good portion of the Chinese navy, for example, ever becomes involved in operations around the island of Taiwan, then the remaining assets may not be enough to seriously threaten the Japanese Ryukyu Islands. On the other hand, war is always a broader game than simply pitting navies against navies.

Rocket forces, air forces, intelligence gathering assets, etc. all have a say in the outcome of battles. But until the United States prepares and sails through the Pacific, the Japanese navy will remain a fairly powerful pillar of defense.