XBB 1 5, expect to catch this soon

Hello everyone, welcome to today's chat, Thursday January 12, there is now a new variant of Covid around xbb 1.5 and I have basically come to the conclusion that it is quite likely that we are all infected with it or at least surely exposed to her in In the coming months, the good news is that I'm not particularly worried about it, so let's look at it now. If we start with the US data from the CDC, we see that ba5 has been gradually decreasing, which we thought was so transmissible. Originally, these bq1 and bq11 variants have overtaken the competition, so the bq1 variant in its bq11 subvariant, but now xb15 is really starting to take off and the growth advantage here is about 40 percent over bq1, so It is reproducing much more quickly and spreading much more. quickly and

this

is going to become the predominant variant and we're all going to be exposed to it, but let's look at the details uh now um so

this

is from Dr.

Gia, the White House coordinator, covid-19 coordinator um and uh he actually says that the spread of xbb 1.5 is impressive. Direct quote and 80 of the Americans who have already been infected are likely to get infected again, so whether you have been vaccinated or covered before, you will probably get xbb. 1.5 80 of Americans, the vast majority, the overwhelming majority, will be a very mild common cold type illness, so for the vast majority of people it's not a big concern, but I'm only reporting it because it's almost certainly going to happen. now this is uh oh um Dr. jog who then gives a lot of other advice that I can't disagree with, but I'm under no obligation to repeat it either, so we'll move on. to Dr.

Paula Cannon, British, British doctor, working at the Southern California state virologist again, talking about xbb 1.5, it's infectious madness, very, very infectious, all the things that are protected for the last few years, Will they still work? I don't think we're going to protect against this new generation of variants, especially this x BB 1.5, it's so transmissible that essentially everyone in the country is at risk of infection now and as we've said, probably 80 of Americans are slated for infection.

soon

and if you're in the UK, don't worry, we're not far behind. We will have an image very similar to this very

soon

.

We don't have it yet, but we will. You will get it pretty soon, even if you are very careful and up to date with the vaccines that I mentioned before, you will still get it again, but for the vast majority of us, as we have said, it should be very, very mild, the number of infections serious illnesses and deaths remains relatively low despite high levels of infection, so official CDC and White House guidelines are to avoid getting infected; However, if it becomes infected, it will be quite impossible to avoid it. That will boost the immunity of the mucosal compartment, your natural immunity, and that's the advantage of this, which is why the White House and the CDC advise against getting it, but it will be inevitable and it will increase your immunity levels, which is the good side.

From this situation, a variant of the US population is provided at the moment, so the UK bq11 is still the main one, so xbb uh 1.5 is next, um, this will replace this one, so this will be on the way down. one is going to be on the rise, in the same way bq1, which is still quite common in the states, is going to go down, xpb is probably going to go down because it is surpassed by its subvariant xbb xbb 1.5 and ba5 and ba the original Omicron that go down , they will be completely replaced, as we see in the graph, they are practically already available and there are many other minor variants that arise that are not of much importance now, how does this compare to? the UK data and the UK data give us some pretty detailed additional information, if you want I'll give it to you now.

The UK Health Security Agency's 49th technical report was published yesterday. There is currently a very high case of concealment in the UK. in 20 people, 4.5 of the population in England have covered this was about 10 days ago, so 4.5 of the population have covered now that's how common it is, we are in this endemic period at the moment, now the Primary lineage in the UK is bq1, so it's a bit like the situation in the US, although in the US, as we see, the xpb 1.5 has grown faster. In the UK, we're already here for xpb, but it's going to grow quite a bit.

Dramatically rapid now hospitalizations with bq1, which is the leading strain in the UK primary analysis, do not increase the risk for people with bq1 compared to ba5. Now we don't have the data in the UK yet for xbb 1.5, but in the states there's no indication at the moment it's causing more hospitalizations at the moment it looks like just another Omicron variant, which is, in a sense, good news , but it's incredibly transmissible, so we're probably all going to

catch

a cold from this, um, the vast majority of us. of people just have a cold, hopefully, in the next few weeks in the states, the next month or two in the UK, so the effectiveness of the bivalent booster against hospitalization with bq1 now the data we have here is that BQ ba5 reduced post-vaccine hospitalization by 64 percent two weeks after the vaccine was given, but the effect of this probably only lasts about 10 weeks, we looked at this a couple of days ago, it doesn't last long, and that without taking into account any analysis of risk, benefit, protection of bq1 against hospitalization has been reduced to uh 50 because remember the vaccines that we are administering now, the original Wuhan virus that we are vaccinating against now no longer exists in the general population and the ba45, which is the other part of the for uh the bivalent vaccine, as you can see, essentially no longer exists, so in a sense we are currently vaccinating against variants of the virus that are no longer circulating in our people, so it is not surprising that the protection against hospitalization has decreased and we know that relatively short-lived now the xbb, the original only marked for the first time on October 11, so this BQ variant here just arrived, just arrived and is about to disappear, it will be one of the shortest living variants in history because, although it was out of competition with ba5, it is being significantly surpassed by xbb 1.5 5. now xbb is what is called a recombinant lineage.

Now what happens here is that a person is infected with two covered variants and we emphasize that it is one covered variant and the only covered variants. that exist are Omicron, so everything is still Omicron and of course spare Omicron, there is some Delta which was actually quite a dangerous virus. It's much better than Delta, so one person was infected with two ba2, actually two subvariants of ba2 at the same time. a cell was infected with two different variants at the same time and these variants merged into a new type of virus, so it is recombinant and there has not been a big takeoff of a recombinant variant like this before these are these are the ones that have evolved mostly independently are sublineages so this is a recombinant variant that will become the predominant variant as we said very soon so it was actually two ba2 that recombined and one of a beat was the right one. ba2 and while that was the other ba2 and uh they uh that combine to form the , why are they eliminating more advantageous Spike protein mutations from both?

So they took some of the best Spike proteins from ba2 and ba2 and put the best of both together through really evolutionary processes. and that's what generated this very, very infectious variant, this xbb and especially xbb 1.15, so there have been changes in the receptor binding domain on the spike protein and it fits very comfortably now, very comfortably now in the H2 receptor, which is how the virus mainly enters the nose and mouth, most of these receptors are in the nose and mouth, that's why you mainly get common cold type symptoms, so there are about 12 mutations compared to ba2.

I said around 12 because obviously it will vary depending on the type of ba2 or the sublineage of ba2 um plus mutation of the receptor binding domain, so it fits very well, in addition to another 23 mutations without spike, rapid replication in primary culture of Nasal epithelium according to British data, so what? they have in cell culture they have respiratory epithelium they can grow in cell culture and examine how quickly the virus infects that and just the virus that the xpb replicates very, very quickly in the nasal mucosa to me, that means that most of the symptoms They are going to If you have nasal or pharyngeal symptoms, they are going to be upper respiratory symptoms and that will also generate some systemic immunity, so when the infection reaches the lower respiratory tract, it will already be there. it's going to be immunity and remember we're not seeing pneumonias covered, we're not seeing acute respiratory distress syndrome covered, fortunately in our hospitals right now we're seeing people who have other illnesses that are developing complications from those other illnesses, except Omicron.

The variants present mainly as a common cold, mainly as a cold, although some people have complications, but it is a smaller number, so it replicates quickly in the nose. xbb 1.5 I don't particularly like the nickname, so I won't repeat it currently. prevalence in the UK so in the US now it's uh what was it? It was around 20 in the US, it was 20 something, I think in the UK, um, in the UK it's lower in the US, it was 27 27.6 in the US. United States, about 28 percent of xbb 1.5 in the United States 4.5 in the United Kingdom and the only way that figure was going in the United Kingdom is that it is going to spread massively quickly uh and ace2, so it fits very well into the H2 receptor and also bypasses prior immunity from the vaccine and from prior infections, so xbb 1.5 is 38, almost 40, relative growth rate.

Advantage compared to B q1, so if we look at the US data again we see that this is going to play about 40 faster than this, so it will replace it and in fact from the UK data we have a graph there so this line here is for bq11 and we see that bq11 I hope you can see that bq11 here is more infectious than the bq1 and the bf7 and the ba 4.6 is more infectious than all the previous ones are more infectious than the ba5 obviously and the ba2 but the but it will eventually be surpassed by xbb 1.5, so I think we can say that with some confidence. that this is what's going to happen, so, a big growth advantage over the current variant and as we say, the bqs won't have been around for long, they came and went pretty quickly or are leaving pretty quickly, so that xbb is phenotypically similar to romicron variants, the phenotype is the virus itself, which is determined by the genotype of the virus, so it's an Omicron, this is an Omicron, so I'm not too worried that it's not as similar to Delta or other previous variants of concern, which is a huge relief and the fact that these Omicron variants are so contagious means that it's actually quite difficult to imagine a more dangerous variant that would be more contagious than the isomicron variants, particularly now that xbb 1.5 would have to be phenomenally infectious so I really don't think that's going to happen, I think we'll do it over the next month or a few months anyway.

I'm pretty sure that this is going to grow and become the main variant and we're going to develop a lot of immunity, which is good, what, what, while the authorities in the states still recommend and oppose getting infected, like that the authorities in the UK if you get infected you can know it's boosting your immunity I think that's the balance of what I'm trying to say now we have this other one in the UK uh ch11 that's not in the states um so it's not in the states uh moderate prevalence um it has a relative growth advantage of 21 over bq11 um so if this was in the states it would be partially displacing the bq as well but it doesn't seem to be there it's the in the uk right now until december 26th bqs are the most common. so this ch11 then the ba5 then the bq1 um the BQ will start to go down now uh the ch11 will rise at least for a period of time before it is finally overtaken by the xpb 1.5 the ba5 will go down ba 2.75 the xbb uh 1.5 will rise a lot this will To return tohuge this will become the main variant that will be the one that will reinfect most of us some more so report from the technical group and this is due to the Titus neutralization laboratory experiments against the xpb alert than any contemporary variant tested, so xbb is more infectious and xbb, as we have said, 1.5 is even more infectious than that, so

expect

a breakthrough post-vaccine and post-infection basically.

We're all going to be exposed to this or the vast majority of us are going to be exposed to this vast majority of us are going to have a very mild illness because remember it replicates rapidly in the nasal epithelium, which will cause a runny nose. and nasal symptoms and upper respiratory symptoms initially, so we're seeing these constant changes, it's absolutely amazing, as you've seen from those doctors in the states how quickly these new variants can spread and they're just going to happen. for the entire population and essentially it is going to happen, the White House and the zdc are advising preventive measures, but practically this is going to happen for the entire population, so you and I have 80 or 90 possibilities about the The next few weeks or months I will be exposed to xpb 1.5, but personally I'm not too worried about that, although it is still causing some hospitalizations, but as we have said, not with the acute respiratory distress syndrome that we saw in the previous Wuhan, really quite unpleasant.

The Alpha and Delta variation is something to look forward to, but once you have had those common core symptoms, you will have higher levels of immunity and of course, it will protect you from infection and protect you again in the future. if you get reinfected again, it will protect you against hospitalizations for severe illness and death, and I

expect

the mucosal immunity to last much, much longer than the relatively short 10 or 11 weeks of vaccine-induced immunity, if you haven't seen this video. um it probably wouldn't make much difference, it's really interesting to follow and we'll see more variants after this because now we're in the endemic phase, this will continue for the next 10 or 20 years. almost certainly and I'm not particularly worried about it now that it's become one of the many endemic viruses um yeah, I think that's it um amazing reproduction rates it's just amazing how this evolutionary process has worked so thanks for watching