Experts explain: Why is the UK economy doing so badly?

Well, the international economic think tank, the OECD, has warned that the UK will have the lowest growth among the Group of Seven big industrial countries next year, just behind Russia, which faces sanctions from the West for its war. in Ukraine, things will be worse. Our economic reporter Neil McDonald is here. Neil, why is the UK

doing

so

badly

compared to others? The OECD says the entire world is facing the biggest energy crisis in 50 years. Russia, of course, has disrupted gas supplies and the price of that gas has skyrocketed, but the degree of exposure to that determines how

badly

its

economy

is affected, so this is what the OECD thinks will happen to the economic growth and some of the big economies next year and you can see how we bring the UK, there we are, we are worse than everyone.

Of course, no one is

doing

very well right now. France produces most of its electricity from nuclear power in the country. In the United States, most of the gas they use is produced domestically, which helps insulate them from what is happening with the international price of gas. Countries like Germany and the UK are more reliant on imported gas and are therefore bearing the brunt of this energy shock, so when is it going to get better? The OECD says we could actually be facing two difficult winters instead of just one, and that worries it. There is gas storage in Europe, so I will show you what could happen in the OECD.

We have gas storage here. The line shows it drops from about 90 percent onwards, obviously, as we use it through the winter and then goes back up again. next spring, as we fill storage capacity again, the line at the bottom 30 storage, if you go below that, that's where you risk disruption, but the OECD says what happens if there's a very heavy winter colder there and you see the storage plummet to the danger zone and of course there is a bigger hole that we then have to try to fill and because of that, when you look at the following winter, the situation is very dire briefly, Why can't they just fill the storage facilities nicely?

European countries have done a good job of this over the last summer, but a lot of that gas actually came from Russia and, of course, Russia has now dramatically reduced the amount of wasted gas and I don't like that, it doesn't look like it's going Going to change anytime soon Europe can go to the international markets and buy some gas, but then of course it will have to compete with other countries, so it probably won't be able to get as much gas as it wants and pay more for it. him, and critically Don't assume any of this affects us, the UK has direct physical links to the energy market in Europe, so if they are paying more for gas, we probably are too.

Yes McDonald, thank you very much Jackie, let's go see Jackie in Leeds as well as us. I have just heard that the problems plaguing the British

economy

are likely to persist over the next two years and therefore lead to the next general election today. Labor leader Sakir Stutters promised that he would be a pragmatic prime minister in tackling the economy and in the speech to the Confederation of British Industry he urged business leaders to stop relying on cheap labor from abroad. Our business reporter, Emilia Jen, was there, they put on PPE face masks, so they really checked out their bridge clips that go above the nose, the pandemic boom in masks and the little strips they contain have made This company has hundreds of thousands, from Razor Blaze to Kettle connectors, the brands are most likely hours.

Small metal products are somewhere in your home. They have big expansion plans, but they just can. We do not fill positions from entry-level positions to senior management. There is a shortage of good people to do all those jobs. We have to work twice as hard to find the same number of people that we may have been looking for. five or six years ago, but like Prime Minister Zakir Starmer he downplayed increased immigration to fill a shortage of more than a million workers, perhaps forgetting that he himself called for freedom of movement in his own leadership campaign , he told the business leaders of the British confederation.

In industry, I would take a pragmatic approach to shortages in the short term, but that your focus would be better wages and more skills for British workers, but our common goal must be to help the British economy move away from its dependence on immigration. to start investing more in commercial workers. They are already here, but let me tell you that the days when low wages and cheap labor were part of the British style of growth must end. I think they're a little bit deluded in terms of solving the growth problem. I can understand that we can upskill our existing workforce but that takes time and unfortunately the opportunity is now and we have to seize it, which means we need more immigration as part of the initial solution the levers for growth are few and far between in a recession the best and cheapest says the the confederation of british industry is increasing time-limited visas for workers at the moment, this is a successful crisis or not, we are saying you know, start migration and we are missing not just data and technological things that we lack, butchers, baggage handlers, hospitality, health.

Be careful There are jobs at all levels that are not being considered and that is slowing down growth. This is a different Labor party and there is no going back. We are ready for partnership. This is not just a business, but the business of politics. And security had a mission. to say that theirs was a party that respected profits and private enterprise I felt like it was football in terms of their desire to work in collaboration with companies and that's really good to hear that scares me, yes or no, I think it goes in the right direction.

I think he made the right noises and the right comments about trade partnerships. The test now is whether its common sense, which I found very impressive, is also supported by the rest of its parts, and if so, then I think it is a compelling package. The next election will almost certainly be contested along economic lines being reshaped here in Birmingham, but that call for short-term fixed business is rejected for now by Party leaders who see greater immigration as a greater political price for the growth. To the Business Minister, Kevin Hollenrake, on immigration and the economy, but I began by asking him his reaction to the prospect of rail strikes around Christmas time, as we discussed earlier.

I would say to unions in general that these have devastating effects on people's lives and their livelihoods, so I would think twice, I would say to both sides that they know that any labor dispute comes to the negotiating table, you come to a sensible place and we can usually find a middle ground, do you have any sympathy for railway workers? They just need more money like everyone else in this country right now. I sympathize with everyone who is struggling right now with energy costs and the cost of living, all those things, but we are all suffering both in the private sector and in the public sector. sector and I think most people are realistic enough to know that very high wage demands cannot be resolved postal workers are on strike on the roads Workers are on strike nurses are on strike teachers are on strike university professors will be on strike I mean, there are there are so many people on strike, we have double-digit inflation.

You could be forgiven for thinking they were in the 1970s. Well, I think there are dangers in the second round effects of inflation around where the deal occurs. That's true, but I said that the majority of the pressures in terms of inflation levels right now are energy costs and supply chain pressures, still about two-thirds of the pressures, so a Despite some higher-than-normal salary deals, most deals are between five and six percent right now. You know, despite those things, most of the oppression. Inflation should begin to moderate in the middle of next year, so I don't think we are in the same situation in which you are proposing the work that has now been, you know, buried in a gray shadow. by the trusted government has now resurrected a body that we respect and you respect, they have said, looking at those numbers, that we are in a worse situation than our European neighbors because partly because of Brexit, I can read you the quote, it is quite a trench and they quoted saying significant adverse impact on trade, well you know you are responsible for trade, what is your response to that?

I mean, practically the European Union was a vote in favor of change, there is no doubt that that will cause pressures in the short term, no. one voted for the change of words, weren't they voted for a better change? Well I can't speak for everyone who voted for what they voted for but there was definitely a period of adjustment, you know your comment about what the obr said about the significant adverse impact on trade due to brexit do you agree with them ? There are no questions as I say, there are some there are some pressures in terms of trade cross border trade in terms of access to labor there are pressures they all have solutions problems, but they will arise, they will cause some challenges in the short and medium term, but we look, If you look at current net migration, for example, the OBR also talks about migration, immigration is approximately at the same level as before Brexit.

We are just having a different situation: we are more skilled workers rather than less skilled workers, something that most people would welcome because it is more appropriate for the UK economy if we want to build that high and higher wage rural economy. What I'm hearing from companies and me. Think that what you are also hearing is that they want more people, they want more labor, they want more migration and you are about to give them that, right? We have a point space system that allows us to moderate or change the migration. It flows according to the needs, so we have to make sure that we adapt the scheme, the system, we encourage business investment, that is how we can become a more productive economy and not depend only on foreign labor, which is exactly what Kirst Armor said today: he wants more qualified people. immigration to accommodate the needs of businesses, so actually, on the issue of migration, you and the Labor party, you know, are seen from the same page, well, I said talk is cheap, I mean, you honestly believe that a Labor party will deliver on that, I mean, excuse me.

I mean that there are many things that this government has promised in recent years that have then ended up in the dust heap of history; No Labor government has left power with lower unemployment than when it started. when he took office, I mean, it's a pretty shocking statistic, finally and briefly, when you look at the strike landscape, when you look at double-digit inflation, when you look at growth, when you compare our position with the rest of Europe, you could say that The British public has never had it so bad. Listen, things are tough and I don't, uh, I don't avoid that at all for households and businesses, but I don't believe the picture you paint. that somehow the world has gone to hell in a handcar or this country is that we have to do better, of course, we need companies to invest, we need a highway to the common economy, a more productive economy, we need to invest in infrastructure, but that's all the The Prime Minister set out to do Kevin hollerick, thank you very much, it's my pleasure, the Business Minister, Kevin Henry, spoke to me earlier, as you just heard, and he noted that the The UK needs more skilled immigration, but as we also heard before, union leaders used a speech. of the CBI today to argue that Britain needs to stop relying on immigration, well, I'm joined now by Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, including Cooper.

Welcome to the show again tonight, Matt. Isn't there a pretty brutal kind of truth here? I can sum it up like this: politicians like you or even Kevin Hollingray cannot cope with the economic consequences of too little migration, but they cannot cope with the political consequences of too much and are caught in the middle, but if you want to have a adequate long-term plan for the economy, it is necessary to analyze what are the causes of some of the lacks ofqualifications we face, which is why we support a points-based system, we will not return to free movement, but the point The idea of ​​a points-based system is to focus visas on those areas where there are skills shortages, but the problem at the moment is that it is not linked to the training system, it is not linked to pay and conditions and what we are What I am saying is that we believe that the points-based system should be reformed so that it is properly linked to training plans long-term, long-term plans around employment standards, because that's the way to address the kinds of shortages that we face in the long term. and don't just look at the short-term issues, but you're not going, you're not saying you're going to reduce immigration, is it because you need those jobs, the economy needs those jobs, so we're not establishing net migration?

Target David Cameron did that and failed, but we are saying that there are areas where we need more training and, for example, there are areas around, which is one of the highest areas where we have overseas recruitment and where we are going to continue. We need international talent and skills, however AI training levels in the UK are significantly lower than other countries, we need to change that and that is why we want these long-term commitments around training and investment in skills, if you do that, then in those areas, there is actually less overseas hiring needed and there is more investment in people living in the UK being able to get those jobs in the future, but what is saying is remarkably similar to what the Conservative government is saying now and here's the truth is not but David Cameron did want to bring about uh immigration in the tens of thousands, he has failed in that as a subsequent Conservative government, but he golden in an era distant 16 years ago, said the British workers of British jobs, which also failed and the thing is neither yours nor the Conservatives nor the workers.

If you can solve this problem, you need workers now and whenever you say there will be a long-term solution, you will always look for short-term solutions. Well the problem right now is that there are no links, so let me give you an example of the type of things that we think need to be reformed right now, if a job is moved to the list of scarce occupations, it can stay there indefinitely and without However, there is no adequate plan to improve training or skills in that area or perhaps to address some of the issues around pay and conditions that are holding back hiring.

We have said that we have highlighted examples, for example our NHS, where we will continue to support the Health and Social Care Visa which provides for recruitment from overseas, where people have come and you know have done very important work for generations in our NHS of course continues; However, what the work would do is double the number of medical training and is a substantial increase in the training of medical professionals here in the UK, so we would actually address some of that training. and the skills shortage, the government is not doing that well, that is why we need to link the two things two more briefly, if I may, the obr has said very clearly that brexit has had a significant and negative impact on the trade, do you agree? the obr, would you blame brexit for that?

Well, I think the government has screwed up a whole range of things and what Starmer and Rachel Risa said is that we have to make Brexit work, we think that includes some of the areas, for example veterinary. agreements where sensible discussions and measures could be put in place that would address some of the pressures and problems that businesses face, so we think there are those sorts of things, but we are not proposing to go back to the single market or to then why not structures in the EU and why not, because we have had those discussions, do we have an agreement in place?

The point now has to be to make Brexit work and to be able to get on with things and not hang around. again in those constitutional discussions and focus particularly on the areas where we can make a difference in achieving economic growth in trade, that is, around the veterinary agreements, but there are also many other areas around the green prosperity plan that Rachel and Kia have settled down. But the current agreements make us poorer, don't they? It is the same imperiality of Great Britain after the ruptures. We are poorer than before and yet, you know what makes you think that you are going to find a secret source of making us less poor, we think, for example, let's repeat again that a veterinary agreement would be important in terms of addressing some of the issues , no, it is quite important, although as part of the issues around the Northern Ireland protocol and also some of the wider issues.

Trade agreements We think there are other areas where we can look at vocational qualification agreements and look at some of those issues from a really practical basis, but we also need to drive long-term growth in the economy and a lot of that too. requires the shift to green energy which will help reduce energy bills and also help boost our economy with the best green manufacturing and the types of skilled jobs we need for the future, finally and briefly Yvette Cooper Mick Lynch of the rmt has Having said that the Labor party is on the side of the Daily Mail, you know, and the plutocrats by not supporting the strike, when are they going to see you on the picket line?, supporting the auntie's strikers, we have been very clear about that , the government has to take measures to come to the table and reach an agreement.

This is really difficult for the workforce, who are obviously trying to do everything they can to get a fair pay deal, but also for the passengers who are being affected and also for the economy, we need a deal. instead and the government should be responsible for this, it's been a complete mess, not just in terms of being called the Labor party, but also in terms of what's happened around the, you know, the millions being paid to the bankrupt companies, the huge amounts of train cancellations, etc. So what was the approach that we have taken in government in the past - working with employers and unions and reaching agreements, that is the approach that we would take, that is the approach that Lou Hague, our transport secretary in the shadow.

If she were in government and she was actually working with everyone to fix this.